The Wireless network data traffic in developed Asia–Pacific: trends and forecasts 2015–2020

Publisher Name :
Date: 12-Jul-2016
No. of pages: 33
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"Pricing discipline and saturation has meant subdued growth in most markets in developed Asia–Pacific, and the linear pattern of growth in usage in the advanced markets of this region raises questions about the purpose of 5G."

Traffic growth in developed Asia-Pacific (DVAP) will be linear, and we forecast only 3.6x growth in traffic in the region between 2015 and 2020, despite sporadic boosts from LTE-A carrier aggregation and the expected launch of 5G.

This report provides:


  • 5-year forecasts of wireless data traffic for DVAP as a whole, and for selected countries

  • worldwide context and specific country commentary for four key countries: Hong Kong, Japan, South Korea and Taiwan

  • analysis of the key trends in, and drivers and inhibitors of, data traffic

  • a discussion of the enablers of future capacity on wireless networks and the cost of supplying that capacity

  • analysis of the trends in private and public usage, and their effect on the use of mobile and Wi-Fi connectivity.


Geographical coverage

Regions modelled


  • Worldwide

  • Developed Asia–Pacific


Countries modelled individually


  • Hong Kong

  • Japan

  • South Korea

  • Taiwan


Data coverage

Mobile data

Total volume and average usage for:


  • handsets

  • mid-screen devices

  • USB modems and routers

  • M2M and smart wearables


Traffic split by:


  • public and private usage

  • median usage per smartphone

  • downstream and upstream


Wi-Fi data

Total volume and average usage for:


  • handsets

  • mid-screen devices, split by mobile-connected and Wi-Fi-only devices

  • laptops (public Wi-Fi connectivity only)


Traffic split by:


  • public and private usage

The Wireless network data traffic in developed Asia–Pacific: trends and forecasts 2015–2020

Table of Contents

5.Executive summary
6.Executive summary
7.Worldwide trends
8.Worldwide: 4G and emerging economies are driving traffic growth, but mobile will remain a sub-10% share of data traffic
9.Worldwide: Traffic growth in advanced LTE markets looks linear – not exponential – and may even turn into s-curves
10.Worldwide: Investment in FTTx may slow the very rapid growth in emerging markets
11.Worldwide: The value of a gigabyte is falling by about 30% per year, but the gross margin on mobile data remains very high
12.Worldwide: There is now little correlation between traffic growth and revenue growth, especially in advanced markets
13.Worldwide: Within 2 years after launch, 4G smartphones generate at least 3 times more traffic than 3G
14.Worldwide: Wi-Fi is already the default at-home network, and could become the default public indoor network
15.Worldwide: The availability of licensed spectrum will become a less important factor in determining the volume of traffic
16.Regional trends
17.Developed Asia–Pacific: Pricing discipline and saturation has meant subdued growth in most regional markets
18.Developed Asia–Pacific: The pattern of growth in traffic will be linear, not exponential
19.Country-level trends
20.Hong Kong: Volume-based pricing and limited competition has impeded the growth of LTE data traffic
21.Japan: Maturity in LTE usage and the growth of HD content is driving traffic to Wi-Fi
22.South Korea: The case for 5G has to go beyond just data capacity and speed
23.Taiwan: Operators have increased 4G allowances, which has inflated data traffic on cellular networks
24.Forecast methodology and assumptions
25.Forecast methodology and assumptions
26.Definition of geographical regions [1]
27.Definition of geographical regions [2]
28.About the author and Analysys Mason
29.About the author
30.Analysys Mason’s consulting and research are uniquely positioned
31.Research from Analysys Mason
32.Consulting from Analysys Mason

List of Figures

Figure 1: Summary of report coverage
Figure 2: Cellular data traffic, developed Asia–Pacific, by market, 2013–2020
Figure 3: 4G and higher device share of traffic, worldwide, emerging and developed economies, 2013 – 2020
Figure 4: Cellular data traffic, by region, 2013–2020
Figure 5: Mobile share of total worldwide Internet traffic, 2013–2015
Figure 6: Annual growth multiples, total mobile data traffic selected advanced LTE markets, 4Q 2011–2Q 2015
Figure 7: Average usage per data SIM, normalised to 4Q 2011, selected advanced LTE markets, 4Q 2011–2Q 2015
Figure 8: Cellular data traffic, worldwide, developed economies and emerging economies, 2013–2020, Analysys Mason 2014 and 2015 forecasts
Figure 9: Data revenue per used GB, handset-only, by region, 2012–2015
Figure 10: Typical range of network and wholesale costs, and revenue sold and consumed, Western Europe, 2015
Figure 11: Mobile data traffic growth, overall retail revenue growth and data revenue growth, worldwide, 2012–2015
Figure 12: Year-on-year retail mobile revenue growth, selected advanced LTE markets, 3Q 2013–2Q 2015
Figure 13: Ratio of average 4G and average 3G smartphone usage, worldwide and selected markets
Figure 14: US device penetration and average usage, 2010– 2014
Figure 15: Smartphone users who connected to Wi-Fi by category of hotspot and the average amount of their total Wi-Fi data usage attributable to that category, Android users (n = 1211)
Figure 16: Convergence of fibre access and mobile
Figure 17: Annual rate of growth, cellular data traffic, selected developed Asia-Pacific markets, 2013–2016
Figure 18: Cellular data traffic per head of population per month, developed emerging Asia-Pacific markets, 2014 and 2015
Figure 19: Cellular data traffic, developed Asia-Pacific, by market, 2013–2020
Figure 20: Cellular data traffic, by type, Hong Kong, 2015–2020
Figure 21: Cellular data traffic, by type, Japan, 2015–2020
Figure 22: Cellular data traffic, by type, South Korea, 2015–2020
Figure 23: Cellular data traffic, by type, Taiwan, 2015–2020
Figure 24: Regional breakdown used in this report
Figure 25: Regional breakdown used in this report

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