OTT video worldwide: trends and forecasts 2019-2024
Table of Contents
Executive summary
The total spend on OTT video services worldwide will almost double between 2019 and 2024, from USD67 billion to USD130 billion
The COVID-19 pandemic will lead to a significant shift in the OTT video narrative; increased viewership will generate an extra USD8 billion in retail revenue in 2020
SVoD will account for the majority of new revenue growth between 2019 and 2024
Service stacking will be boosted by the COVID-19 pandemic, which will in turn boost ASPU growth for most regions
Worldwide forecasts and regional comparison
Worldwide: the paid-for OTT video household penetration will exceed 80% by 2024 in North America and developed Asia–Pacific
Worldwide: the total spend on OTT video services worldwide will almost double between 2019 and 2024, from USD67 billion to USD130 billion
Worldwide: the total number of unique OTT users will reach 1.16 billion in 2024, most of which will subscribe to at least one SVoD service
Worldwide: SVoD will continue to be the main driver of OTT user base growth; the number of paying SVoD users will increase by 350 million between 2019 and 2024
Worldwide: the pandemic will boost TVoD retail revenue
Worldwide: linear OTT video services will be the worst hit by the pandemic and prospects look uncertain
Worldwide: operator OTT and third-party OTT video revenue will grow at a CAGR of 22–23% between 2016 and 2024
Regional trends
Western Europe: OTT video services retail revenue will almost double between 2019 and 2024; the bulk of this continues to be from SVoD services
Western Europe: SVoD take-up will continue to increase rapidly, but linear channel subscriptions will also be increasingly popular
Western Europe: the region will remain characterised by a wide variance in premium OTT service penetration
Central and Eastern Europe: OTT video retail revenue is constrained by low-priced traditional services and high levels of piracy
Central and Eastern Europe: OTT video take-up is increasing; subscriber base and revenue growth for linear channel services will keep pace with that for SVoD
Central and Eastern Europe: penetration of premium OTT video is low in most countries; Turkey is a notable exception
Middle East and North Africa: most retail revenue growth will come from SVoD services; ASPU will plummet thanks to the heavy use of free trials
Middle East and North Africa: SVoD services will remain the most-popular form of OTT video in MENA, though free trials continue to be common
Middle East and North Africa: premium OTT services will remain relegated to a minority of households in most countries
Sub-Saharan Africa: the number of OTT video users and the OTT video revenue will grow rapidly, albeit from a small base
Sub-Saharan Africa: rising disposable incomes and a robust increase in telecoms service penetration will generate strong growth in demand for video content
China: SVoD will continue to dominate the OTT video segment
China: BAT has successfully boosted the number of paying subscribers to its OTT video services; the total number of OTT video users will reach 397 million by 2024
EMAP excl. China: OTT video retail revenue will be dominated by SVoD because many linear services are being bundled free of charge
EMAP excl. China: SVoD will continue to account for the majority of users, but the number of linear content users will grow rapidly from a smaller base
Emerging Asia–Pacific: premium OTT penetration will grow significantly in most countries during the forecast period
Developed Asia–Pacific: OTT video retail revenue growth will continue to be driven by SVoD services in most countries
Developed Asia–Pacific: the OTT video market in developed Asia–Pacific is dominated by Japan
Developed Asia–Pacific: third-party OTT video will account for most of the growth in the number of premium OTT video service subscribers during the forecast period
North America: revenue from OTT video services will grow by 64% between 2019 and 2024, driven mainly by an increase in SVoD service take-up
North America: SVoD will continue to dominate the OTT segment in the region due to strong content investments by large OTT players
Geographical coverage: OTT video service penetration is high in both Canada and the USA, but linear services and TVoD services are much less popular in the USA
Latin America: SVoD will account for nearly 90% of the total OTT video spend in the region, the majority of which will come from Netflix
Latin America: the OTT market will continue to be SVoD-centric: the number of SVoD users will grow by 84% between 2019 and 2024
Geographical coverage: OTT video household penetration in Latin America is expected to grow from 20% in 2019 to 34% in 2024
Forecast methodology and assumptions
Our spend forecasts focus on the direct flow of money between consumers and OTT video providers
How we classify OTT video services in this forecast
About the authors and Analysys Mason
About the authors [1/2]
About the authors [2/2]
Analysys Mason’s consulting and research are uniquely positioned
Research from Analysys Mason
Consulting from Analysys Mason
List of Figures
Figure 1: OTT video retail revenue by service type and blended ASPU, worldwide, 2016–2024
Figure 2: The effect of the COVID-19 pandemic on regional OTT video revenue
Figure 3: Growth in OTT video retail revenue and the number of OTT users, and ASPU, by worldwide region, 2019–2024
Figure 4: SVoD, TVoD and linear share of retail revenue for OTT video, and the household penetration of premium OTT video users, by region, worldwide, 2024
Figure 5: OTT video retail revenue by service type and blended ASPU, worldwide, 2016–2024
Figure 6: OTT video users and growth rates by service type, worldwide, 2019–2024
Figure 7: OTT video spend and growth rates by service type, worldwide, 2019–2024
Figure 8: OTT video users by service type, worldwide, 2016–2024
Figure 9: Distribution of paying SVoD users by region, worldwide, 2019–2024
Figure 10: OTT TVoD retail revenue by region, worldwide, 2016–2024
Figure 11a: Household penetration of linear OTT services by region, regions with a pre-pandemic forecast, 2016–2024
Figure 11b: Household penetration of linear OTT services by region, regions with a pandemic forecast, 2016–2024
Figure 12: Retail revenue from operator OTT and third-party OTT video services, worldwide, 2016–2024
Figure 13: OTT video retail revenue by service type and blended ASPU, Western Europe, 2016–2024
Figure 14: OTT video users and growth rates by service type, Western Europe, 2019–2024
Figure 15: OTT video spend and growth rates by service type, Western Europe, 2019–2024
Figure 16: OTT video users by service type, Western Europe, 2016–2024
Figure 17: SVoD, TVoD and linear share of retail revenue for OTT video, and the household penetration of premium OTT video users, Western Europe, 2024
Figure 18: OTT video retail revenue by service type and blended ASPU, Central and Eastern Europe, 2016–2024
Figure 19: OTT video users and growth rates by service type, Central and Eastern Europe, 2019–2024
Figure 20: OTT video spend and growth rates by service type, Central and Eastern Europe, 2019–2024
Figure 21: OTT video users by service type, Central and Eastern Europe, 2016–2024
Figure 22: SVoD, TVoD and linear share of retail revenue for OTT video, and the household penetration of premium OTT video users, Central and Eastern Europe, 2024
Figure 23: OTT video retail revenue by service type and blended ASPU, Middle East and North Africa, 2016–2024
Figure 24: OTT video users and growth rates by service type, Middle East and North Africa, 2019–2024
Figure 25: OTT video spend and growth rates by service type, Middle East and North Africa, 2019–2024
Figure 26: OTT video users by service type, Middle East and North Africa, 2016–2024
Figure 27: SVoD, TVoD and linear share of retail revenue for OTT video, and the household penetration of premium OTT video users, Middle East and North Africa, 2024
Figure 28: OTT video retail revenue by service type and blended ASPU, Sub-Saharan Africa, 2016–2024
Figure 29: OTT video users and growth rates by service type, Sub-Saharan Africa, 2019–2024
Figure 30: OTT video spend and growth rates by service type, Sub-Saharan Africa, 2019–2024
Figure 31: OTT video users by service type, Sub-Saharan Africa, 2016–2024
Figure 32: OTT video retail revenue by service type and blended ASPU, China, 2016–2024
Figure 33: OTT video users and growth rates by service type, China, 2019–2024
Figure 34: OTT video spend and growth rates by service type, China, 2019–2024
Figure 35: OTT video users by service type, China, 2016–2024
Figure 36: OTT video retail revenue by service type and blended ASPU, emerging Asia–Pacific excluding China, 2016–2024
Figure 37: OTT video users and growth rates by service type, emerging Asia–Pacific excluding China, 2019–2024
Figure 38: OTT video spend and growth rates by service type, emerging Asia–Pacific excluding China, 2019–2024
Figure 39: OTT video users by service type, emerging Asia–Pacific excluding China, 2016–2024
Figure 40: SVoD, TVoD and linear share of retail revenue for OTT video, and the household penetration of premium OTT video users, emerging Asia–Pacific, 2024
Figure 41: OTT video retail revenue by service type and blended ASPU, developed Asia–Pacific, 2016–2024
Figure 42: OTT video users and growth rates by service type, developed Asia–Pacific, 2019–2024
Figure 43: OTT video spend and growth rates by service type, developed Asia–Pacific, 2019–2024
Figure 44: OTT video users by service type, developed Asia–Pacific, 2016–2024
Figure 45: SVoD, TVoD and linear share of retail revenue for OTT video, and the household penetration premium OTT video users, developed Asia–Pacific, 2024
Figure 46: OTT video retail revenue by service type and blended ASPU, North America, 2016–2024
Figure 47: OTT video users and growth rates by service type, North America, 2019–2024
Figure 48: OTT video spend and growth rates by service type, North America, 2019–2024
Figure 49: OTT video users by service type, North America, 2016–2024
Figure 50: SVoD, TVoD and linear share of retail revenue for OTT video, and the household penetration of premium OTT video users, North America, 2024
Figure 51: OTT video retail revenue by service type and blended ASPU, Latin America, 2016–2024
Figure 52: OTT video users and growth rates by service type, Latin America, 2019–2024
Figure 53: OTT video spend and growth rates by service type, Latin America, 2019–2024
Figure 54: OTT video users by service type, Latin America, 2016–2024
Figure 55: SVoD, TVoD and linear share of retail revenue for OTT video, and the household penetration of premium OTT video users, Latin America, 2024
Figure 56: Scope of our premium OTT video spend forecasts
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