IP enablement will drive growth in the number of pay-TV connections worldwide; IPTV and operator OTT video will account for 48% of all pay-TV connections by 2024. This report provides an outlook for pay-TV and operator OTT video services over the next 5 years.
Table of Contents
Worldwide forecasts and regional comparison
Worldwide: the COVID-19 pandemic will have a minor, short-term effect on the traditional pay-TV market, but may lead to more cord-cutting in the medium term
Worldwide: emerging Asia–Pacific will have the highest IPTV share of traditional pay-TV connections of all regions in 2024, largely due to China
Worldwide: growth in operator OTT revenue will not offset the losses in traditional pay-TV services revenue caused by ASPU erosion
Worldwide: IP enablement will drive growth in the number of pay-TV connections; IPTV and operator OTT services will account for 48% of pay-TV connections by 2024
Worldwide: traditional pay-TV penetration will fall the fastest in North America, but cord-cutting will also become more prevalent in other regions
Regional trends
Western Europe: operators will continue to move towards OTT video; operator OTT connections will exceed those from DTH by 2024
Western Europe: the number of IPTV and operator OTT service subscriptions will increase, offsetting declines in the number of cable, DTH and pay-DTT subscriptions
Western Europe: growth in operator OTT service revenue varies significantly by country, depending on the strength of the competition from third-party OTT players
Central and Eastern Europe: retail revenue will grow robustly, despite the impact of low-priced traditional pay-TV services and widespread piracy
Central and Eastern Europe: the number of IPTV connections will grow slightly, but operator OTT video services will account for most of the user base growth
Central and Eastern Europe: penetration of operator OTT services will grow rapidly from a small base; Turkey will continue to distort the picture at the regional level
Middle East and North Africa: significant ASPU erosion will be counterbalanced by growth in the number of operator OTT and traditional pay-TV subscribers
Middle East and North Africa: the number of satellite subscribers has grown despite piracy; the number of IPTV connections will grow the most during the forecast period
Middle East and North Africa: the take-up of traditional pay-TV and operator OTT services will be stimulated by declining prices and reduced piracy
Sub-Saharan Africa: satellite will continue to account for the vast majority of traditional pay-TV connections due to the limited footprint of wired infrastructure
Sub-Saharan Africa: expansions in wireless infrastructure coverage will drive a surge in the number of OTT video users, though only some will use operators’ services
Sub-Saharan Africa: the three main traditional pay-TV providers will continue to dominate the market during the forecast period
Emerging Asia–Pacific: retail revenue growth for traditional pay-TV services will be dwarfed by the USD14.6 billion growth in OTT video retail revenue
Emerging Asia–Pacific: customers will migrate away from cable and satellite and towards IPTV; new pay-TV users will primarily use IPTV
Emerging Asia–Pacific: the take-up of traditional pay-TV and operator-OTT services will vary widely by country; ASPU will remain limited by abundant free services
Developed Asia–Pacific: operator OTT services will contribute to overall retail revenue growth for pay-TV providers’ services between 2019 and 2024
Developed Asia–Pacific: pay-TV providers and operators will offset the decline in the number of cable and satellite subscriptions by gaining IPTV and OTT users
Developed Asia–Pacific: operator OTT services will continue to gain subscribers in most markets; South Korean users will favour traditional pay-TV
North America: the total revenue from pay-TV services will decline by 21% between 2019 and 2024 due to a large fall in the number of subscribers
North America: the number of traditional pay-TV connections will fall by 18 million, only slightly mediated by growth in the number of operator OTT connections
North America: the penetration of operator OTT services will grow considerably faster in Canada than in the USA
Latin America: total pay-TV revenue will decline by 22% between 2019 and 2024, mainly due to piracy and OTT migration
Latin America: growth in the number of operator OTT and IPTV subscribers will not outweigh the strong decline in the number of satellite subscribers until 2023
Latin America: pay-TV players’ retail revenue from OTT services will grow, but it will still only account for a small share of their total revenue
Forecast methodology and assumptions
Our spend forecasts focus on the direct flow of money between consumers and OTT video providers
How we classify OTT video services in this forecast
Further definitions
About the authors and Analysys Mason
About the authors [1/2]
About the authors [2/2]
Analysys Mason’s consulting and research are uniquely positioned
Research from Analysys Mason
Consulting from Analysys Mason
List of Figures
Figure 1: Annual growth in operator retail revenue from TV and video services, by COVID-19 scenario, worldwide, 2019–2020
Figure 2: IPTV share of traditional pay-TV connections and the number of operator OTT users as a percentage of the number of households, worldwide by region, 2024
Figure 3: Traditional pay-TV and OTT retail revenue for operators and pay-TV providers, worldwide, 2016–2024
Figure 4: Pay-TV retail revenue and CAGR by service type, worldwide, 2019–2024
Figure 5: Pay-TV connections and CAGR by service type, worldwide, 2019–2024
Figure 6: Pay-TV connections and ASPU by access technology, worldwide, 2016–2024
Figure 7: The number of traditional pay-TV connections as a percentage of the number of households, by region, 2016–2024
Figure 8: The number of operator OTT users as a percentage of the number of households, by region, 2016–2024
Figure 9: Traditional pay-TV and OTT retail revenue for operators and pay-TV providers, WE, 2016–2024
Figure 10: Pay-TV retail revenue and CAGR by service type, WE, 2019–2024
Figure 11: Pay-TV connections and CAGR by service type, WE, 2019–2024
Figure 12: Pay-TV connections and ASPU by access technology, WE, 2016–2024
Figure 13a: The number of operator OTT users as a percentage of the number of households, WE, 2016–2024
Figure 13b: The number of operator OTT users as a percentage of the number of households, WE, 2016–2024
Figure 14: Traditional pay-TV and OTT retail revenue for operators and pay-TV providers, CEE, 2016–2024
Figure 15: Pay-TV retail revenue and CAGR by service type, CEE, 2019–2024
Figure 16: Pay-TV connections and CAGR by service type, CEE, 2019–2024
Figure 17: Pay-TV connections and ASPU by access technology, CEE, 2016–2024
Figure 18: NBED
Figure 19: Traditional pay-TV and OTT retail revenue for operators and pay-TV providers, MENA, 2016–2024
Figure 20: Pay-TV retail revenue and CAGR by service type, MENA, 2019–2024
Figure 21: Pay-TV connections and CAGR by service type, MENA, 2019–2024
Figure 22: Pay-TV connections and ASPU by access technology, MENA, 2016–2024
Figure 23: The number of traditional pay-TV connections as a percentage of the number of households, MENA, 2016–2024
Figure 24: The number of operator OTT users as a percentage of the number of households, MENA, 2016–2024
Figure 25: Traditional pay-TV and OTT retail revenue for operators and pay-TV providers, SSA, 2016–2024
Figure 26: Pay-TV retail revenue and CAGR by service type, SSA, 2019–2024
Figure 27: Pay-TV connections and CAGR by service type, SSA, 2019–2024
Figure 28: Pay-TV connections and ASPU by access technology, SSA, 2016–2024
Figure 29: Household penetration of pay-TV and operator OTT services, by access technology, SSA, 2016–2024
Figure 30: Traditional pay-TV and OTT retail revenue for operators and pay-TV providers, EMAP, 2016–20242
Figure 31: Pay-TV retail revenue and CAGR by service type, EMAP, 2019–2024
Figure 32: Pay-TV connections and CAGR by service type, EMAP, 2019–2024
Figure 33: Pay-TV connections and ASPU by access technology, EMAP, 2016–2024
Figure 34: The number of traditional pay-TV connections as a percentage of the number of households, EMAP, 2016–2024
Figure 35: The number of operator OTT users as a percentage of the number of households, EMAP, 2016–2024
Figure 36: Traditional pay-TV and OTT retail revenue for operators and pay-TV providers, DVAP, 2016–2024
Figure 37: Pay-TV retail revenue and CAGR by service type, DVAP, 2019–2024
Figure 38: Pay-TV connections and CAGR by service type, DVAP, 2019–2024
Figure 39: Pay-TV connections and ASPU by access technology, DVAP, 2016–2024
Figure 40: The number of traditional pay-TV connections as a percentage of the number of households, DVAP, 2016–2024
Figure 41: The number of operator OTT users as a percentage of the number of households, DVAP, 2016–2024
Figure 42: Traditional pay-TV and OTT retail revenue for operators and pay-TV providers, NA, 2016–2024
Figure 43: Pay-TV retail revenue and CAGR by service type, NA, 2019–2024
Figure 44: Pay-TV connections and CAGR by service type, NA, 2019–2024
Figure 45: Pay-TV connections and ASPU by access technology, NA, 2016–2024
Figure 46: The number of traditional pay-TV connections as a percentage of the number of households, NA, 2016–2024
Figure 47: The number of operator OTT users as a percentage of the number of households, NA, 2016–2024
Figure 48: Traditional pay-TV and OTT retail revenue for operators and pay-TV providers, LATAM, 2016–2024
Figure 49: Pay-TV retail revenue and CAGR by service type, LATAM, 2019–2024
Figure 50: Pay-TV connections and CAGR by service type, LATAM, 2019–2024
Figure 51: Pay-TV connections and ASPU by access technology, LATAM, 2016–2024
Figure 52: The number of operator OTT users as a percentage of the number of households, LATAM, 2016–2024
Figure 53: Scope of our spend forecasts
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