World Hybrid & Electric Vehicles to 2018

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Date: 17-Jun-2014
No. of pages: 426
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Global H/EV sales to reach 25 million units in 2018

Hybrid and electric vehicle (H/EV) sales will more than double to 25 million units in 2018. Market advances will be led by micro and mild hybrids. Micro hybrids are conventional vehicles equipped with start-stop systems. Mild hybrids also have regenerative braking, and some of these come equipped with a small electric motor that helps start the vehicle but can not propel it without the aid of an internal combustion engine. These systems offer significant fuel savings considering their relatively low cost, and can lower overall vehicle emissions. In 2018, micro and mild hybrids will account for 80 percent of all H/EV demand, followed by full and plug-in hybrids and electric vehicles.

Western Europe to remain largest regional market

Western Europe was the first region to adopt micro/mild hybrid vehicles on a mass scale. As a result, it will remain the largest regional market for micro and mild hybrids and for H/EVs overall, representing 44 percent of total demand in 2018. However, micro/mild hybrid sales are projected to grow faster in other parts of the world, particularly in North America and the Asia/Pacific region. Electric vehicle demand in these regions will exhibit the fastest gains of any type through 2018, albeit from a very small current market base.

Expansion in China, Japan to spur Asia/Pacific growth

The Asia/Pacific region, led by China, will represent the fastest growing market for H/EVs through 2018. Sales gains will be fueled by an increasing number of micro/mild hybrids offered for sale in the country and further narrowing of the price premium over conventional vehicles. In addition, European, Japanese, and US automakers will continue to open and expand existing plants in China and partner with domestic firms to take advantage of government subsidies for vehicles purchased from locally based suppliers. The Asia/Pacific region is also home to Japan, which will remain the world’s largest market for full and plug-in hybrids, representing two-fifths of all demand for those vehicle types in 2018. The US will continue to have the world’s highest electric vehicle sales, accounting for over one-fifth of the global total.

Higher fuel prices, lower cost parts key to H/EV affordability

Increases in overall H/EV demand will be stimulated by high global fuel prices and supported by reductions in component (especially battery) prices as output levels climb and greater economies of scale are achieved. This will help make H/EVs more affordable to the average vehicle purchaser, a particularly major factor in industrializing countries where privately owned vehicles remain a relative luxury. Heightened concerns about air pollution worldwide will also lead to the enactment of additional regulations and subsidy programs supporting sales and use of H/EVs, as these vehicles have the potential to significantly reduce tailpipe emissions.Light vehicles will account for over 99 percent of all H/EV sales in 2018. Nevertheless, demand for fuel-efficient H/EV medium and heavy duty trucks will more than triple as their price premium over conventional models shrinks.

The technology required to manufacture H/EVs is more sophisticated than that for conventional motor vehicles. As a result, H/EV production is concentrated among a relatively few large automakers with considerable research and development resources. However, a number of smaller startup companies have entered the electric vehicle industry, with Tesla Motors being the most successful to date. While merger and acquisition activity among vehicle producers is rare, most OEMs have at least one H/EV-related cooperative agreement with another automaker.

Company Profiles

Profiles 44 global industry competitors such as BMW, Daimler, Honda, Nissan, Peugeot, Renault, Tesla & Volkswagen

Additional Information

This study analyzes the world market for hybrid and electric vehicles (H/EVs). Hybrid vehicle types are micro/mild, full, and plug-in; and electric vehicle types are battery and fuel cell. Vehicle segments include light vehicles (automobiles, SUVs, vans, and light trucks) and medium and heavy duty trucks and buses.

Historical data for 2003, 2008, and 2013, and forecasts for 2018 and 2023 are provided for production by type, demand by type and segment, net exports and sales from inventory (total), and vehicles in use (total) on a countryby- country basis in thousands of units. The term “demand” actually refers to “apparent consumption” and is defined as production (also referred to as “output,” “shipments,” or “supply”) from the H/EV manufacturing facilities located in a country plus imports minus exports. It is used interchangeably with the terms “market,” “sales,” and “consumption.”

World Hybrid & Electric Vehicles to 2018

Table Of Contents

Introduction  XII

I. Executive Summary  1

II. Market Environment  4
General  4
World Economic Overview  5
Recent Historical Trends  5
World Economic Outlook  6
World Population Overview  10
Per Capita GDP Trends  12
World Motor Vehicle Overview  14
Motor Vehicle Production  15
Motor Vehicle Demand  18
Motor Vehicles in Use  20
Environmental & Regulatory Factors  22
Emissions Regulations  23
Rebates & Incentives  25
Pricing Trends  27

III. Technology  29
General  29
Hybrid & Electric Powerplants  30
Micro/Mild Hybrid  32
Full Hybrid  33
Plug-In Hybrid  34
Battery Electric  34
Fuel Cell  35
Hybrid & Electric Vehicle Commercialization Issues  36
Safety Concerns  36
Battery Life  36
Electric Vehicle Range  38
Fueling Infrastructure Readiness  38
Energy Storage Technologies  39
Well-to-Wheels Efficiency & Pollution Comparisons  41
Regulatory Compliance  42
Technology Penetration  44

IV. World Supply & Demand  45
General  45
Regional Overview  46
Demand  46
Vehicles in Use  49
Production  51
Micro/Mild Hybrid Vehicle Production  54
Full/Plug-In Hybrid & Electric Vehicle Production  55
International Trade  56
Demand by Type  58
Hybrid  61
Micro/Mild Hybrid  62
Full Hybrid  65
Plug-In Hybrid  68
Electric  70
Battery  72
Fuel Cell  73
Demand by Segment  75
Light Vehicles  75
Medium & Heavy Trucks & Buses  78

V. North America  80
General  80
Hybrid & Electric Vehicle Supply & Demand  81
Hybrid & Electric Vehicle Market Outlook  85
United States  87
Canada  94
Mexico  100

VI. Western Europe  107
General  107
Hybrid & Electric Vehicle Supply & Demand  109
Hybrid & Electric Vehicle Market Outlook  112
Germany  115
United Kingdom  121
France  127
Italy  133
Spain  139
Netherlands  145
Belgium  151
Austria  157
Sweden  163
Other Western Europe  169

VII. Asia/Pacific  176
General  176
Hybrid & Electric Vehicle Supply & Demand  178
Hybrid & Electric Vehicle Market Outlook  181
Japan  184
China  191
India  197
South Korea  204
Other Asia/Pacific  210

VIII. Other Regions  217
Central & South America  217
Eastern Europe  224
Russia  231
Poland  237
Other Eastern Europe  243
Africa/Mideast  249

IX. Industry Structure  257
General  257
Industry Composition  258
Market Share  261
Micro/Mild Hybrid Vehicles  262
Full/Plug-In Hybrid Vehicles  263
Electric Vehicles  264
Research & Product Development  266
Manufacturing  267
OEM & Supplier Competitive Strategies  268
Marketing & Distribution  269
Cooperative Agreements  271
Financial Issues & Requirements  280
Mergers, Acquisitions, & Industry Restructuring  281
Company Profiles  283
Alcoa Incorporated  284
Anhui Jianghuai Automobile Company Limited  285
Bayerische Motoren Werke AG  286
Blue Energy, see GS Yuasa and Honda Motor BMW Brilliance Automotive, see Bayerische  otoren Werke Bosch (Robert) GmbH  290
BYD Company Limited  295
Chery Automobile Company Limited  298
Chongqing Changan Automobile Company Limited  299
Continental AG  301
Daimler AG  304
Delphi Automotive plc  311
DENSO Corporation  314
Deutsche ACCUmotive, see Daimler Eaton Corporation plc  316
Exide Technologies  318
Fiat SpA  320
Ford Motor Company  322
Freescale Semiconductor Incorporated  325
Freightliner Custom Chassis, see Daimler Fuji Electric Company Limited  326
General Motors Company  328
Gillig LLC  331
GS Yuasa Corporation  332
Halla Visteon Climate Control, see Visteon Hitachi Limited  334
Honda Motor Company Limited  336
Hyundai Motor Company  341
JAC Motors, see Anhui Jianghuai Automobile JATCO, see Mitsubishi Motors and Nissan Motor  Johnson Controls Incorporated  345
Keihin Corporation  347
Kia Motors, see Hyundai Motor LG Chem Limited  349
Linamar Corporation  351
Lithium Energy and Power, see Bosch (Robert) and GS Yuasa Lithium Energy Japan, see GS  Yuasa and Mitsubishi Motors Mazda Motor Corporation  353
Mitsubishi Fuso Truck and Bus, see Daimler Mitsubishi Motors Corporation  355
New Flyer Industries Incorporated  359
Nissan Motor Company Limited  361
NMKV, see Mitsubishi Motors and Nissan Motor NuCellSys, see Daimler Panasonic  Corporation  368
Peugeot SA  370
Renault SA  373
Saft Groupe SA  378
SAIC Motor Corporation Limited  380
Samsung SDI Company Limited  381
SB LiMotive, see Samsung SDI Shenzhen BYD Daimler New Technology, see BYD and  Daimler Suzuki Motor Corporation  383
TE Connectivity Limited  385
Tesla Motors Incorporated  386
Toshiba Corporation  389
Toyota Motor Corporation  391
Valeo SA  398
Visteon Corporation  402
Volkswagen AG  404
Volvo Car Group  410
ZF Friedrichshafen AG  412
Zytek Group Limited  415
Other Companies Mentioned in the Study  417

List Of Tables

Section I -- Executive Summary

Section II -- Market Environment
1 World Gross Domestic Product by Region  9
2 World Population by Region  12
3 World Per Capita Gross Domestic Product by Region  14
4 World Motor Vehicle Production by Type & Region  18
5 World Motor Vehicle Demand by Type & Region  20
6 World Motor Vehicles in Use by Type & Region  22

Section III -- Technology
1 Comparison of Hybrid & Electric Powertrain Types  31

Section IV -- World Supply & Demand
1 World Hybrid & Electric Vehicle Demand by Region  48
2 World Hybrid & Electric Vehicles in Use by Region  50
3 World Hybrid & Electric Vehicle Production by Region  53
4 World Micro/Mild Hybrid Vehicle Production by Region  55
5 World Full/Plug-In Hybrid & Electric Vehicle Production by Region  56
6 World Hybrid & Electric Vehicle Net Exports by Region  58
7 World Hybrid & Electric Vehicle Demand by Type  60
8 World Hybrid Vehicle Demand by Type & Region  62
9 World Micro/Mild Hybrid Vehicle Demand by Region  64
10 World Full Hybrid Vehicle Demand by Region  67
11 World Plug-In Hybrid Vehicle Demand by Region  69
12 World Electric Vehicle Demand by Type & Region  71
13 World Hybrid & Electric Vehicle Demand by Segment  75
14 World Hybrid & Electric Light Vehicle Demand by Type & Region  77
15 World Hybrid & Electric Medium & Heavy Duty Truck & Bus Demand by Type & Region  79

Section V -- North America
1 North America:  Hybrid & Electric Vehicle Supply & Demand  84
2 North America:  Hybrid & Electric Vehicle Demand by Type & Segment  86
3 United States:  Hybrid & Electric Vehicle Supply & Demand  91
4 United States:  Hybrid & Electric Vehicle Demand by Type & Segment  93
5 Canada:  Hybrid & Electric Vehicle Supply & Demand  98
6 Canada:  Hybrid & Electric Vehicle Demand by Type & Segment  100
7 Mexico:  Hybrid & Electric Vehicle Supply & Demand  104
8 Mexico:  Hybrid & Electric Vehicle Demand by Type & Segment  106

Section VI -- Western Europe
1 Western Europe:  Hybrid & Electric Vehicle Supply & Demand  111
2 Western Europe:  Hybrid & Electric Vehicle Demand by Type & Segment  114
3 Germany: Hybrid & Electric Vehicle Supply & Demand  119
4 Germany:  Hybrid & Electric Vehicle Demand by Type & Segment  121
5 United Kingdom:  Hybrid & Electric Vehicle Supply & Demand  125
6 United Kingdom: Hybrid & Electric Vehicle Demand by Type & Segment  127
7 France:  Hybrid & Electric Vehicle Supply & Demand  131
8 France:  Hybrid & Electric Vehicle Demand by Type & Segment  133
9 Italy:  Hybrid & Electric Vehicle Supply & Demand  137
10 Italy:  Hybrid & Electric Vehicle Demand by Type & Segment  139
11 Spain:  Hybrid & Electric Vehicle Supply & Demand  143
12 Spain: Hybrid & Electric Vehicle Demand by Type & Segment  145
13 Netherlands:  Hybrid & Electric Vehicle Supply & Demand  149
14 Netherlands:  Hybrid & Electric Vehicle Demand by Type & Segment  151
15 Belgium:  Hybrid & Electric Vehicle Supply & Demand  155
16 Belgium:  Hybrid & Electric Vehicle Demand by Type & Segment  157
17 Austria:  Hybrid & Electric Vehicle Supply & Demand  161
18 Austria:  Hybrid & Electric Vehicle Demand by Type & Segment  163
19 Sweden:  Hybrid & Electric Vehicle Supply & Demand  167
20 Sweden:  Hybrid & Electric Vehicle Demand by Type & Segment  169
21 Other Western Europe:  Hybrid & Electric Vehicle Supply & Demand  173
22 Other Western Europe:  Hybrid & Electric Vehicle Demand by Type & Segment  175

Section VII -- Asia/Pacific
1 Asia/Pacific:  Hybrid & Electric Vehicle Supply & Demand  180
2 Asia/Pacific:  Hybrid & Electric Vehicle Demand by Type & Segment  183
3 Japan:  Hybrid & Electric Vehicle Supply & Demand  188
4 Japan:  Hybrid & Electric Vehicle Demand by Type & Segment  190
5 China:  Hybrid & Electric Vehicle Supply & Demand  195
6 China:  Hybrid & Electric Vehicle Demand by Type & Segment  197
7 India:  Hybrid & Electric Vehicle Supply & Demand  202
8 India:  Hybrid & Electric Vehicle Demand by Type & Segment  204
9 South Korea:  Hybrid & Electric Vehicle Supply & Demand  208
10 South Korea:  Hybrid & Electric Vehicle Demand by Type & Segment  210
11 Other Asia/Pacific:  Hybrid & Electric Vehicle Supply & Demand  214
12 Other Asia/Pacific:  Hybrid & Electric Vehicle Demand by Type & Segment  216

Section VIII -- Other Regions
1 Central & South America:  Hybrid & Electric Vehicle Supply & Demand  221
2 Central & South America:  Hybrid & Electric Vehicle Demand by Type & Segment  223
3 Eastern Europe:  Hybrid & Electric Vehicle Supply & Demand  227
4 Eastern Europe:  Hybrid & Electric Vehicle Demand by Type & Segment  230
5 Russia:  Hybrid & Electric Vehicle Supply & Demand  235
6 Russia:  Hybrid & Electric Vehicle Demand by Type & Segment  237
7 Poland:  Hybrid & Electric Vehicle Supply & Demand  241
8 Poland:  Hybrid & Electric Vehicle Demand by Type & Segment  243
9 Other Eastern Europe:  Hybrid & Electric Vehicle Supply & Demand  247
10 Other Eastern Europe:  Hybrid & Electric Vehicle Demand by Type & Segment  249
11 Africa/Mideast:  Hybrid & Electric Vehicle Supply & Demand  254
12 Africa/Mideast:  Hybrid & Electric Vehicle Demand by Type & Segment  256

Section IX -- Industry Structure
1 World Hybrid & Electric Vehicle Sales by Company, 2013  260
2 Selected Cooperative Agreements  273
3 Selected Acquisitions & Divestitures  282

List Of Charts

Section IV-- World Supply & Demand
1 World Hybrid & Electric Vehicle Demand by Region, 2013  49
2 World Hybrid & Electric Vehicles in Use by Region, 2013  51
3 World Hybrid & Electric Vehicle Production by Region, 2013  54
4 World Hybrid & Electric Vehicle Demand by Type, 2013  60
5 World Micro/Mild Hybrid Vehicle Demand by Region, 2013  65
6 World Full Hybrid Vehicle Demand by Region, 2013  68
7 World Plug-In Hybrid Vehicle Demand by Region, 2013  70
8 World Electric Vehicle Demand by Region, 2013  72

Section V -- North America
1 North America:  Hybrid & Electric Vehicle Demand by Country, 2013  85

Section VI -- Western Europe
1 Western Europe:  Hybrid & Electric Vehicle Demand by Country, 2013  112

Section VII -- Asia/Pacific
1 Asia/Pacific:  Hybrid & Electric Vehicle Demand by Country, 2013  181

Section VIII -- Other Regions
1 Eastern Europe:  Hybrid & Electric Vehicle Demand by Country, 2013  228

Section IX -- Industry Structure
1 World Hybrid & Electric Vehicle Market Share, 2013  262
2 World Micro/Mild Hybrid Vehicle Market Share, 2013  263
3 World Full/Plug-In Hybrid Vehicle Market Share, 2013  264
4 World Electric Vehicle Market Share, 2013  265

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