Venezuela Agribusiness Report Q4 2016

Publisher Name :
Date: 28-Sep-2016
No. of pages: 68

BMI View: The operating environment for Venezuela's agribusiness sector has deteriorated significantly

over recent years due to the poor macroeconomic climate, a shortage of foreign currency for input

purchases and general government mismanagement. Venezuela's economy will continue to be under

extreme downward pressure in 2016 amid low international oil prices. The growing headwinds to the

economy will weigh on agricultural production and consumption in the coming years, and we forecast most

commodities to stagnate out to 2020. Producers of agricultural goods will struggle as rising production

costs and controlled prices at the farm level reduce margins. As such, the divergence between Venezuela

and its neighbouring countries in terms of agricultural sector development will continue to grow in the

coming years.

Key Forecasts

? Coffee production growth to 2019/20: -8.2% to 459,000 60kg bags. Venezuela's coffee sector suffers

from many structural weaknesses and is on the decline. Low profitability (due to government-mandated

prices), the lack of private and public investment and the rust disease will impede production from

growing.

? Poultry production growth to 2019/20: -7.7% to 563,000 tonnes. The sector is held back by a lack of

profitability due to high input costs, inflation and government price controls, along with increased

competition from imports. The poultry industry will fare somewhat better than the beef sector, for which

the outlook is especially bleak.

Venezuela Agribusiness Report Q4 2016

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View 7
SWOT 10
Industry Forecast 11
Grains Outlook 11
Latest Updates 11
Table: Venezuela - Grains Production And Consumption Outlook 12
Table: Risks To Outlook 13
Structural Trends 13
Table: Corn Production & Consumption (Venezuela 2010-2015) 17
Coffee Outlook 18
Latest Updates 18
Table: Venezuela - Coffee Production And Consumption Outlook 18
Table: Venezuela - Risks To Coffee Outlook 19
Structural Trends 19
Table: Coffee Production & Consumption (Venezuela 2012-2020) 21
Livestock Outlook 22
Latest Updates 22
Table: Venezuela - Livestock Production And Consumption Outlook 23
Table: Risks To Outlook 23
Structural Trends 24
Table: Beef Production & Consumption (Venezuela 2012-2020) 25
Table: Pork Production & Consumption (Venezuela 2012-2020) 26
Table: Poultry Production & Consumption (Venezuela 2012-2020) 26
Commodity Strategy 27
Commodities Forecasts 27
Table: Select Commodities - Performance & BMI Forecasts 27
Upstream Analysis 29
Americas GM Outlook 29
Americas Machinery Outlook 37
Table: Select Companies - Sales Forecasts By Region (Company-based estimates) 40
Americas Fertiliser Outlook 44
Downstream Analysis 51
Food 51
Latest Updates 51
Structural Trends 52
Table: Food Sales (Venezuela 2013-2020) 52
Regional Overview 55
Competitive Landscape 61
Table: Venezuela Agribusiness Competitive Landscape 61
Demographic Forecast 62
Demographic Outlook 2015 62
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Venezuela 1990-2025) 63
Table: Key Population Ratios (Venezuela 1990-2025) 63
Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (Venezuela 1990-2025) 64
Table: Population By Age Group (Venezuela 1990-2025) 64
Table: Population By Age Group % (Venezuela 1990-2025) 65
Methodology 67
Industry Forecast Methodology 67
Sector-Specific Methodology 68

List of Tables

Table: Venezuela - Grains Production And Consumption Outlook
Table: Risks To Outlook
Table: Corn Production & Consumption (Venezuela 2010-2015)
Table: Venezuela - Coffee Production And Consumption Outlook
Table: Venezuela - Risks To Coffee Outlook
Table: Coffee Production & Consumption (Venezuela 2012-2020)
Table: Venezuela - Livestock Production And Consumption Outlook
Table: Risks To Outlook
Table: Beef Production & Consumption (Venezuela 2012-2020)
Table: Pork Production & Consumption (Venezuela 2012-2020)
Table: Poultry Production & Consumption (Venezuela 2012-2020)
Table: Select Commodities - Performance & BMI Forecasts
Table: Select Companies - Sales Forecasts By Region (Company-based estimates)
Table: Food Sales (Venezuela 2013-2020)
Table: Venezuela Agribusiness Competitive Landscape
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Venezuela 1990-2025)
Table: Key Population Ratios (Venezuela 1990-2025)
Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (Venezuela 1990-2025)
Table: Population By Age Group (Venezuela 1990-2025)
Table: Population By Age Group % (Venezuela 1990-2025)
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