United States Power Report Q4 2016

Publisher Name :
Date: 21-Sep-2016
No. of pages: 86

BMI View: Growth in natural gas-fired capacity and renewables will be the pillars of the US power market

as a result of the availability of cheap natural gas and the extension of tax credits for wind and solar power

plants. Meanwhile, investment in power infrastructure will be necessary for the system to keep up with

growth in intermittent renewables and distributed energy solutions. In the absence of support from public

funding, nuclear power will struggle amid low wholesale power prices and growing competition with other

technologies, leading to early reactor retirements.

Latest Updates And Structural Trends

? We have revised down our forecast for nuclear power capacity and generation through to 2025 as low

wholesale power prices, environmental regulations and lack of policy support for nuclear have prompted

utilities to plan the retirement of unprofitable plants ahead of schedule or when licences expire. Our view

that policy support would be the only upside to the nuclear power sector is also in play, as in August the

New York State Public Service Commission approved subsidies that will allow the state's struggling

nuclear plants to continue to operate.

? As we expect Hillary Clinton to be the next president of the US, we believe the country's energy policy

over the next four years will align with the direction set by the Environmental Protection Agency's Clean

Power Plan (CPP), regardless of whether the plan is eventually implemented. We believe a Clinton

presidency will not deviate from the Obama administration policy agenda on the environment and power

sector, underpinning our upbeat long-term forecast for the US renewables sector.

? The US power transmission and distribution sector will offer sizeable business opportunities to

companies across the spectrum of EPC providers, electric utilities and new market entrants targeting the

smart grid. Significant investment in power infrastructure will be necessary over the coming decade for

the US electric system to keep up with growth in intermittent renewable energy, DES and cybersecurity

threats. The Senate's Energy Policy Modernization Act (EPMA) takes important steps to facilitate public

and private investment in those critical areas. In July, the Senate voted with a large majority to move

forward with the EPMA and to enter formal negotiations for reconciling the EPMA with a more divisive

energy bill approved by the House of Representatives in 2015.

United States Power Report Q4 2016

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View 7
Table: Headline Power Forecasts (United States 2015-2021) 7
SWOT 9
Industry Forecast 11
United States Snapshot 11
Table: Country Snapshot: Economic and Demographic Data (United States 2015-2019) 11
Table: Country Snapshot: Economic and Demographic Data (United States 2020-2025) 11
Table: Country Snapshot: Power Sector 11
United States Power Forecast Scenario 12
Table: US Nuclear Reactors - Planned Retirements And Additions 19
Table: Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts (United States 2014-2019) 25
Table: Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts (United States 2020-2025) 26
Table: Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts (United States 2014-2019) 27
Table: Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts (United States 2020-2025) 28
Electricity Consumption 28
Table: Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts (United States 2014-2019) 30
Table: Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts (United States 2020-2025) 30
Transmission & Distribution 30
Table: Canada-US Power Transmission Lines Under Development 35
Table: Electric Power T&D Losses Data And Forecasts (United States 2014-2019) 36
Table: Electric Power T&D Losses Data And Forecasts (United States 2020-2025) 36
Table: Trade Data And Forecasts (United States 2014-2019) 36
Table: Trade Data And Forecasts (United States 2020-2025) 36
Industry Risk Reward Ratings 37
NAWE Power Risk/Reward Index 37
United States Power Risk/Reward Ratings 43
Rewards 43
Risks 43
Market Overview 45
Key Policies And Market Structure 45
Regulation And Competition 45
Table: Epma - Most Relevant Provisions For The Power Sector 46
Sustainable Energy Policies 47
Table: EPA's Clean Power Plan - Winners And Losers 48
Pricing 51
United States Power Projects Database 53
Competitive Landscape 56
Table: Pending And Completed Acquisition Deals 57
Pacific Gas And Electric Company (PG&E) 58
Southern California Edison (SCE) 58
Exelon 58
NextEra Energy (FPL And NextEra Energy Resources) 59
Southern Co 60
Dominion 60
American Electric Power 61
Mid-American/PacifiCorp 61
Xcel Energy 62
Duke Energy Corporation 62
Company Profile 63
Duke Energy 63
Table: Policy Scenarios Under Us Presidential Candidates 69
Latest Developments 70
Regional Overview 72
NAWE Power Key Themes 72
Glossary 80
Table: Glossary Of Terms 80
Methodology 81
Methodology And Sources 81
Industry Forecast Methodology 81
Sources 84
Risk/Reward Index Methodology 84
Table: Power Risk/Reward Index Indicators 85
Table: Weighting Of Indicators 86

List of Tables

Table: Headline Power Forecasts (United States 2015-2021)
Table: Country Snapshot: Economic and Demographic Data (United States 2015-2019)
Table: Country Snapshot: Economic and Demographic Data (United States 2020-2025)
Table: Country Snapshot: Power Sector
Table: US Nuclear Reactors - Planned Retirements And Additions
Table: Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts (United States 2014-2019)
Table: Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts (United States 2020-2025)
Table: Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts (United States 2014-2019)
Table: Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts (United States 2020-2025)
Table: Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts (United States 2014-2019)
Table: Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts (United States 2020-2025)
Table: Canada-US Power Transmission Lines Under Development
Table: Electric Power T&D Losses Data And Forecasts (United States 2014-2019)
Table: Electric Power T&D Losses Data And Forecasts (United States 2020-2025)
Table: Trade Data And Forecasts (United States 2014-2019)
Table: Trade Data And Forecasts (United States 2020-2025)
Table: Epma - Most Relevant Provisions For The Power Sector
Table: EPA's Clean Power Plan - Winners And Losers
Table: Pending And Completed Acquisition Deals
Table: Policy Scenarios Under Us Presidential Candidates
Table: Glossary Of Terms
Table: Power Risk/Reward Index Indicators
Table: Weighting Of Indicators
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