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BMI View: The outlook for Ukraine's tourism market remains extremely weak. Escalating conflict in the
country and rising tensions with Russia surrounding Crimea, including a growing military presence along
the border, will continue to deter visitors and investors. We therefore expect to see significant contractions
in inbound tourism and across key indicators for the hotel market over the course of the forecast period to
2020. Even prior to the current crisis, Ukraine was struggling to attract significant volumes of visitors or
sufficient investment into the ageing hotel sector, meaning the country faces a long road ahead to become a
competitive tourism destination in the region.
Key Updates And Forecasts
? Despite the conflict, Ukraine remains well connected to other markets in the region. A recent addition to
available flight routes includes a three times a week service between popular city-break destination Lviv
and Vilnius in Lithuania.
? We have downgraded our forecasts for Ukraine's tourism industry this quarter. Inbound arrivals are now
expected to continue their decline in 2016, falling by 2.5% to reach 12.1mn. This leaves the inbound
travel market less than half the size of the pre-crisis market.