Tunisia Oil and Gas Report Q4 2016

Publisher Name :
Date: 05-Oct-2016
No. of pages: 71

BMI View: Tunisia's investor-friendly government and stable business environment bodes well for foreign

investors. However, the country's oil reserves are depleting and recent exploration efforts have only

resulted in relatively small discoveries. The low oil prices is also de-incentivising exploration activity at the

moment. We believe that a lack of new significant discoveries will continue pushing Tunisia's oil production

volumes lower across our forecast period to 2025.

Latest Updates And Key Forecasts

- Exploration is yielding positive results in Tunisia despite limited resource potential. While it is unlikely

the country will rid itself of hydrocarbon imports in the coming years, this trend supports greater

exploration and production activity over the long term.

- Having produced 49,000b/d of crude oil and condensates in 2015, Tunisia is a small and declining crude

oil producer. The country's production levels have been decreasing gradually since 2007, when it peaked

at 83,300b/d. While new conventional fields coming online will support Tunisian oil output over the next

four years, they will not be able to compensate for gradual production decline from maturing fields across

our forecast period.

- Following the CAT-1 discovery, Mazarine and ETAP submitted a Plan of Development which was

finalised in Q116 and approved by Comite Consultatif des Hydrocarbues on May 5, 2016.

- The Bizarte refinery will remain the only oil refining facility in Tunisia throughout our forecast period to

2025. With modest capacity of 34,000b/d, refined products production will be unable to meet the rapidly

increasing domestic demand.

- We have upgraded Tunisia's refined fuels consumption outlook this quarter on the back of a more robust

economic growth over the coming years than previously expected. This will promote greater

consumption of refined fuels with consumption set to increase at y-o-y average of 3.0% over the

2016-2020 period.

Tunisia Oil and Gas Report Q4 2016

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View 7
Table: Headline Forecasts (Tunisia 2014-2020) 7
SWOT 9
Oil & Gas SWOT 9
Industry Forecast 10
Upstream Exploration 10
Latest Updates 10
Structural Trends 10
Upstream Projects 13
Table: Upstream Project Database 13
Upstream Production - Oil 15
Latest Updates 15
Structural Trends 15
Table: Oil Production (Tunisia 2014-2019) 17
Table: Oil Production (Tunisia 2020-2025) 17
Upstream Production - Gas 18
Latest Updates 18
Structural Trends 18
Table: Gas Production (Tunisia 2014-2019) 20
Table: Gas Production (Tunisia 2020-2025) 20
Refining 21
Latest Updates 21
Structural Trends 21
Table: Refining Capacity And Refined Products Production (Tunisia 2014-2019) 23
Table: Refining Capacity And Refined Products Production (Tunisia 2020-2025) 23
Refined Fuels Consumption 24
Latest Updates 24
Structural Trends 24
Table: Refined Products Consumption* (Tunisia 2014-2019) 25
Table: Refined Products Consumption* (Tunisia 2020-2025) 25
Gas Consumption 26
Latest Updates 26
Structural Trends 26
Table: Gas Consumption (Tunisia 2014-2019) 28
Table: Gas Consumption (Tunisia 2020-2025) 28
Trade - Oil 29
Crude Oil Trade 29
Latest Updates 29
Structural Trends 29
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Tunisia 2014-2020) 30
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Tunisia 2020-2025) 31
Refined Fuels Trade 31
Latest Updates 31
Structural Trends 31
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Tunisia 2014-2019) 32
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Tunisia 2020-2025) 33
Trade - Gas (Pipeline And LNG) 34
Latest Updates 34
Structural Trends 34
Table: Gas Net Exports (Tunisia 2014-2019) 35
Table: Gas Net Exports (Tunisia 2020-2025) 36
Industry Risk Reward Index 37
Africa - Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Index 37
Table: BMI Africa Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Index 37
Above-Ground Risks Dulling Below-Ground Potential 40
Table: BMI Africa Upstream Risk/Reward Index 40
Downstream Sector Holds Limited Opportunity 43
Table: BMI Africa Downstream Risk/Reward Index 43
Tunisia - Risk/Reward Index 46
Market Overview 48
Tunisia Energy Market Overview 48
Key Legislation 48
Regulatory Bodies 48
National Oil Company 48
Fiscal Regime 49
Table: Tunisia Fiscal Terms 49
Licensing Regime 49
Table: Tunisian Licensing Regime 49
Oil And Gas Infrastructure 50
Oil Refineries 50
Pipelines 50
Company Profile 52
ETAP 52
Table: Concessions Operated By ETAP In Tunisia 53
Regional Overview 54
Africa - Bullish Gas, Bearish Oil 54
Table: Africa Oil & Gas Production, Consumption, Refining Capacity And Trade 63
Glossary 64
Table: Glossary Of Terms 64
Methodology 66
Industry Forecast Methodology 66
Source 68
Risk/Reward Index Methodology 68
Table: Bmi's Oil & Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Index 70
Table: Weighting 71

List of Tables

Table: Headline Forecasts (Tunisia 2014-2020)
Table: Upstream Project Database
Table: Oil Production (Tunisia 2014-2019)
Table: Oil Production (Tunisia 2020-2025)
Table: Gas Production (Tunisia 2014-2019)
Table: Gas Production (Tunisia 2020-2025)
Table: Refining Capacity And Refined Products Production (Tunisia 2014-2019)
Table: Refining Capacity And Refined Products Production (Tunisia 2020-2025)
Table: Refined Products Consumption* (Tunisia 2014-2019)
Table: Refined Products Consumption* (Tunisia 2020-2025)
Table: Gas Consumption (Tunisia 2014-2019)
Table: Gas Consumption (Tunisia 2020-2025)
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Tunisia 2014-2020)
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Tunisia 2020-2025)
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Tunisia 2014-2019)
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Tunisia 2020-2025)
Table: Gas Net Exports (Tunisia 2014-2019)
Table: Gas Net Exports (Tunisia 2020-2025)
Table: BMI Africa Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Index
Table: BMI Africa Upstream Risk/Reward Index
Table: BMI Africa Downstream Risk/Reward Index
Table: Tunisia Fiscal Terms
Table: Tunisian Licensing Regime
Table: Concessions Operated By ETAP In Tunisia
Table: Africa Oil & Gas Production, Consumption, Refining Capacity And Trade
Table: Glossary Of Terms
Table: Bmi's Oil & Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Index
Table: Weighting
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