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BMI View: Tunisia's investor-friendly government and stable business environment bodes well for foreign
investors. However, the country's oil reserves are depleting and recent exploration efforts have only
resulted in relatively small discoveries. The low oil prices is also de-incentivising exploration activity at the
moment. We believe that a lack of new significant discoveries will continue pushing Tunisia's oil production
volumes lower across our forecast period to 2025.
Latest Updates And Key Forecasts
- Exploration is yielding positive results in Tunisia despite limited resource potential. While it is unlikely
the country will rid itself of hydrocarbon imports in the coming years, this trend supports greater
exploration and production activity over the long term.
- Having produced 49,000b/d of crude oil and condensates in 2015, Tunisia is a small and declining crude
oil producer. The country's production levels have been decreasing gradually since 2007, when it peaked
at 83,300b/d. While new conventional fields coming online will support Tunisian oil output over the next
four years, they will not be able to compensate for gradual production decline from maturing fields across
our forecast period.
- Following the CAT-1 discovery, Mazarine and ETAP submitted a Plan of Development which was
finalised in Q116 and approved by Comite Consultatif des Hydrocarbues on May 5, 2016.
- The Bizarte refinery will remain the only oil refining facility in Tunisia throughout our forecast period to
2025. With modest capacity of 34,000b/d, refined products production will be unable to meet the rapidly
increasing domestic demand.
- We have upgraded Tunisia's refined fuels consumption outlook this quarter on the back of a more robust
economic growth over the coming years than previously expected. This will promote greater
consumption of refined fuels with consumption set to increase at y-o-y average of 3.0% over the