Tanzania Mining Report Q4 2016

Publisher Name :
Date: 21-Sep-2016
No. of pages: 47

BMI View: Tanzania's gold sector will remain pressured by low gold prices, which will discourage

production growth over coming years. Beyond our forecast period to 2020, the country's mining sector

could diversify as various miners are looking to invest in the country's nickel, coal and uranium resources.

Latest Developments & Structural Trends

? Tanzania, currently Africa's fourth-largest gold producer, will see modest growth in output due to mine

closures and a limited number of projects in the pipeline. Ongoing labour unrest, illegal mining, power

shortages and gold price weakness will also temper the sector's production outlook. Acacia Mining

(formerly African Barrick Gold) and Resolute Mining have ceased production at two mines due to

depleted reserves. Acacia Mining and AngloGold Ashanti have warned about impending job cuts in the

north of the country. Given that Tanzania relies upon gold for over 40.0% of its exports, the downturn in

the sector is likely to have serious repercussions for the economy as a whole.

? Despite this, a number of new projects will ensure the country's production growth remains positive over

the coming quarters. For instance, CATA Mining's Mara gold mine, the second largest project in the

region, following Acacia Mining's North Mara gold mine, is expected to begin production in Q316. The

miner has invested over USD54mn to develop the project. Further, Shanta Gold recorded gold

production of 24,522 ounces (koz) at its New Luika gold mine in Tanzania in Q315. The record

production was benefited from a 33% q-o-q improvement in gold ore grade efficiencies and a 25%

increase in tons milled during the quarter.

? Shanta Gold has laid out a five-year mine plan for its New Luika mine in Tanzania. The new mine plan,

which will include underground mining and an ongoing surface mining and tailings recovery project,

estimates an average production of 84koz annually over the next five years. An underground extension to

the mine will produce 310koz and add USD72mn to the project value. The underground development is

estimated to have an up-front cost of USD38mn. Under the plan, the open pit will run until 2018. New

Luika is expected to produce a total of 443koz of gold during the 2016-2022 period, of which 310,000oz

will be from underground, 133koz from open pit and 19koz from the tailings project..

Tanzania Mining Report Q4 2016

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View 7
Table: Tanzania - Mining Industry Value 7
Table: Tanzania - Key Mining Projects 7
Latest Developments & Structural Trends 8
SWOT 9
Industry Forecast 10
Gold: Growth To Remain Slow 10
Latest Developments 10
Table: Gold Production Forecast (Tanzania 2014-2020) 10
Structural Trends 11
Industry Risk Reward Ratings 15
Tanzania Risk Reward Index 15
Rewards 15
Industry Rewards 15
Country Rewards 15
Risks 15
Industry Risks 15
Country Risks 15
Africa - Risk/Reward Index 16
Key Takeaways 16
Latest Revisions 17
Table: Africa - Mining Risk/Reward Index 18
Regulatory Development 19
Trade & Investment Risk Analysis 20
Commodities Forecast 24
Commodities Outlook 24
Table: BMI Commodities Price Forecasts 24
Competitive Landscape 26
Key Players 26
Table: Tanzania - Main Mining Companies 27
Company Profile 28
Barrick Gold - Q4 2016 28
Table: Select Commodities - Price Forecasts 30
Company Strategy 32
Table: Barrick Gold - Key Projects 33
Table: Barrick Gold - Key Financial Data 34
Table: Gold - Operational Highlights, 2015 35
Regional Overview 36
Sub-Saharan Africa Overview 36
Table: SSA - Government Involvement In Mining Sector 42
Methodology 44
Industry Forecast Methodology 44
Sources 45
Risk/Reward Index Methodology 46
Table: Weighting Of Indicators 47

List of Tables

Table: Tanzania - Mining Industry Value
Table: Tanzania - Key Mining Projects
Table: Gold Production Forecast (Tanzania 2014-2020)
Table: Africa - Mining Risk/Reward Index
Table: BMI Commodities Price Forecasts
Table: Tanzania - Main Mining Companies
Table: Select Commodities - Price Forecasts
Table: Barrick Gold - Key Projects
Table: Barrick Gold - Key Financial Data
Table: Gold - Operational Highlights, 2015
Table: SSA - Government Involvement In Mining Sector
Table: Weighting Of Indicators
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