Tajikistan Power Report Q4 2016

Publisher Name :
Date: 28-Sep-2016
No. of pages: 50

BMI View: Tajikistan's overreliance on volatile hydropower generation will mean that the country will

continue to face power generation shortfalls over the next 10 years - due to falling water levels during the

winter when peak power demand occurs. Government plans to boost hydropower generation in order to

facilitate power exports will be marred by obstacles, due to lack of financing for new power generating

infrastructure and security threats to mooted electricity interconnections, although the award of a tender

for the 3,600MW Rogun project creates cautious hope that this massive venture may finally get off the

ground.

Latest Updates And Structural Trends

? Italy's Salini Impregilo in June 2016 inked a framework deal worth a total of USD3.9bn to build the

3,600MW Rogun hydroelectric dam. The framework agreement included OJSC Rogun ordering the

initial batch of works, to a total value of USD1.95bn.

? Germany's Siemens was in August 2016 contracted to provide two gas insulated high voltage switchgears

for the Rogun project. One switchgear (the 8DQ1) will cover a voltage range of up to 550kv with 21

circuit breakers, while the second switchgear (the 8DN9) will have a voltage range up to 220kv, with four

circuit breakers.

Tajikistan Power Report Q4 2016

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View 7
Table: Headline Power Forecasts (Tajikistan 2015-2021) 7
SWOT 9
Industry Forecast 11
Tajikistan Snapshot 11
Table: Country Snapshot: Economic and Demographic Data (Tajikistan 2015-2020) 11
Table: Country Snapshot: Economic and Demographic Data (Tajikistan 2020-2025) 11
Tajikistan Power Forecast Scenario 12
Table: No Regional Boom In Electricity Exports 13
Hydropower Generation And Capacity Forecast 13
Natural Gas Generation And Capacity Forecast 17
Electricity Generation And Power Generating Capacity 18
Table: Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts (Tajikistan 2014-2019) 18
Table: Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts (Tajikistan 2020-2025) 18
Table: Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts (Tajikistan 2014-2019) 19
Table: Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts (Tajikistan 2020-2025) 19
Electricity Consumption 20
Table: Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts (Tajikistan 2014-2019) 20
Table: Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts (Tajikistan 2020-2025) 20
Transmission And Distribution 20
Table: Electric Power T&D Losses Data And Forecasts (Tajikistan 2014-2019) 21
Table: Electric Power T&D Losses Data And Forecasts (Tajikistan 2020-2025) 21
Industry Risk Reward Index 22
CEE Power Risk/Reward Index 22
Tajikistan Power Risk/Reward Index 29
Rewards 29
Risks 30
Market Overview 31
Regulation And Competition 31
Pricing 32
Tajikistan - Projects Database 33
Competitive Landscape 34
Barki Tojik 34
Regional Overview 36
CEE Power Regional Overview 36
Glossary 44
Table: Glossary Of Terms 44
Methodology 45
Methodology And Sources 45
Industry Forecast Methodology 45
Sources 48
Risk/Reward Index Methodology 48
Table: Power Risk/Reward Index Indicators 49
Table: Weighting Of Indicators 50

List of Tables

Table: Headline Power Forecasts (Tajikistan 2015-2021)
Table: Country Snapshot: Economic and Demographic Data (Tajikistan 2015-2020)
Table: Country Snapshot: Economic and Demographic Data (Tajikistan 2020-2025)
Table: No Regional Boom In Electricity Exports
Table: Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts (Tajikistan 2014-2019)
Table: Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts (Tajikistan 2020-2025)
Table: Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts (Tajikistan 2014-2019)
Table: Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts (Tajikistan 2020-2025)
Table: Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts (Tajikistan 2014-2019)
Table: Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts (Tajikistan 2020-2025)
Table: Electric Power T&D Losses Data And Forecasts (Tajikistan 2014-2019)
Table: Electric Power T&D Losses Data And Forecasts (Tajikistan 2020-2025)
Table: Glossary Of Terms
Table: Power Risk/Reward Index Indicators
Table: Weighting Of Indicators
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