South Africa Petrochemicals Report Q4 2016

Publisher Name :
Date: 31-Aug-2016
No. of pages: 66

The outlook for the South African petrochemicals industry has worsened due to the country's continued

poor economic performance as well as the threat of strike action within the petrochemicals sector and

related sectors, both upstream and in end markets. In spite of the decline in the value of the rand, the sector

is struggling with low levels of competitiveness and weighed down by poor consumption, although past

problems with electricity power supply have eased. Sub-2% growth is expected over the short-term with

little significant growth expected over the five year forecast period in spite of the growth in capacity in the

C3 chain.

Basic chemicals output grew 2.6% y-o-y in the first five months of 2016, reversing the trend in 2015 when

full year output fell 0.6%. This was above the trend seen in the overall manufacturing sector which grew

1.0% y-o-y over the period. Plastic also fared better, growing 0.5% y-o-y compared to a 1.9% fall.

However, rubber saw a 1.6% decline. Nevertheless, going into Q216 the rubber sector appeared to pick up

while the plastic segment lost steam, demonstrating the volatility within the petrochemicals sector.

South Africa Petrochemicals Report Q4 2016

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View 7
SWOT 8
Political 10
Economic 11
Operational Risk 12
Industry Forecast 14
Latest Developments 14
Consumption 14
Table: South Africa's Chemicals & Petrochemicals Sector, 2012-2020 18
Macroeconomic Forecasts 19
Economic Growth Outlook 19
Table: South Africa - Real GDP Growth, % change q-o-q, SAAR 20
Industry Risk/Reward Index 23
MEA Petrochemicals Risk/Reward Index 23
Table: MEA Petrochemicals Risk/Reward Index - Q4 2016 27
South Africa Petrochemicals Risk/Reward Index 28
Market Overview 30
Industry Trends And Developments 33
Sasol 33
Upstream 34
Company Profile 39
Sasol 39
Table: Sasol - Financial Results, Financial Year Ending June 30 (ZARmn), 2010-2015 42
Regional Overview 43
Middle East And Africa Overview 43
Global Industry Overview 49
Demographic Forecast 56
Demographic Outlook 56
Table: Population Headline Indicators (South Africa 1990-2025) 57
Table: Key Population Ratios (South Africa 1990-2025) 57
Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (South Africa 1990-2025) 58
Table: Population By Age Group (South Africa 1990-2025) 58
Table: Population By Age Group % (South Africa 1990-2025) 59
Glossary 61
Table: Glossary Of Petrochemicals Terms 61
Methodology 62
Industry Forecast Methodology 62
Risk/Reward Index Methodology 64
Table: Petrochemicals Risk/Reward Index Indicators 65
Table: Weighting Of Indicators 66

List of Tables

Table: South Africa's Chemicals & Petrochemicals Sector, 2012-2020
Table: South Africa - Real GDP Growth, % change q-o-q, SAAR
Table: MEA Petrochemicals Risk/Reward Index - Q4 2016
Table: Sasol - Financial Results, Financial Year Ending June 30 (ZARmn), 2010-2015
Table: Population Headline Indicators (South Africa 1990-2025)
Table: Key Population Ratios (South Africa 1990-2025)
Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (South Africa 1990-2025)
Table: Population By Age Group (South Africa 1990-2025)
Table: Population By Age Group % (South Africa 1990-2025)
Table: Glossary Of Petrochemicals Terms
Table: Petrochemicals Risk/Reward Index Indicators
Table: Weighting Of Indicators
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