Poland Petrochemicals Report Q4 2016

Publisher Name :
Date: 14-Sep-2016
No. of pages: 76

BMI View: The Polish petrochemicals industry is facing plenty of downside risk as a result of the potential

effects of a Brexit-induced slowdown in manufacturing exports. Already, petrochemicals margins are under

pressure and some polymer segments, notably polyethylene, saw declines in production in H116.

Nevertheless, the industry is investing in new capacity, with 100,000tpa of extra polymer-grade propylene

capacity available from 2018.

Polish petrochemicals producer PKN Orlen has pledged to expand propylene capacity to 550,000 tonnes

per annum (tpa), a decision that appears to be justified by the 7.2% y-o-y growth in polypropylene output to

135,000 tonnes in H116. Overall plastic output rose 4.7% over the period. However, the local market in

other polymers has come under pressure, with polyethylene output down 3.0% y-o-y to 192,100 tonnes and

polyvinyl chloride (PVC) down 13.5% to 140,500 tonnes.

In terms of feedstock for polymer production, ethylene output down 2.3% y-o-y to 272,000 tonnes, while

propylene production was down 0.5% to 197,000 tonnes. As a result, while propylene capacity utilisation

was a healthy 87.6%, ethylene utilisation was just 71.5%.

A 47% rise in oil prices also raised the cost of Poland's naphtha and gasoil supply, which represent 75% and

25%, respectively, of cracker feedstock capacity. Consequently, petrochemicals margins fell 7.6% between

January and June to EUR970/t.

Poland Petrochemicals Report Q4 2016

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View 7
SWOT 8
Political 9
Economic 10
Operational Risk 11
Industry Forecast 13
Table: Polish Petrochemicals Sector Capacity, 2012-2020 ('000tpa, unless otherwise stated 17
Macroeconomic Forecasts 18
Economic Outlook 18
Industry Risk/Reward Index 22
Europe Petrochemicals Risk/Reward Index 22
Table: European Petrochemicals Risk/Reward Index (scores out of 100) 28
Industry Risk/Reward Index 29
Market Overview 30
Industry Trends And Developments 33
Upstream 33
Company Profile 37
Polski Koncern Naftowy Orlen (PKN Orlen) 37
Anwil 42
Grupa Lotos 44
Table: Grupo Lotos' Financial Results, 2011-2015 (PLNmn) 46
Regional Overview 48
Europe Overview 48
Global Industry Overview 59
Demographic Forecast 66
Demographic Outlook 66
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Poland 1990-2025) 67
Table: Key Population Ratios (Poland 1990-2025) 67
Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (Poland 1990-2025) 68
Table: Population By Age Group (Poland 1990-2025) 68
Table: Population By Age Group % (Poland 1990-2025) 69
Glossary 71
Table: Glossary Of Petrochemicals Terms 71
Methodology 72
Industry Forecast Methodology 72
Risk/Reward Index Methodology 74
Table: Petrochemicals Risk/Reward Index Indicators 75
Table: Weighting Of Indicators 76

List of Tables

Table: Polish Petrochemicals Sector Capacity, 2012-2020 ('000tpa, unless otherwise stated
Table: European Petrochemicals Risk/Reward Index (scores out of 100)
Table: Grupo Lotos' Financial Results, 2011-2015 (PLNmn)
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Poland 1990-2025)
Table: Key Population Ratios (Poland 1990-2025)
Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (Poland 1990-2025)
Table: Population By Age Group (Poland 1990-2025)
Table: Population By Age Group % (Poland 1990-2025)
Table: Glossary Of Petrochemicals Terms
Table: Petrochemicals Risk/Reward Index Indicators
Table: Weighting Of Indicators
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