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BMI View: A large and wealthy middle-class will support robust growth in New-Zealand's food and drink
sector. Growth in the mature market will largely be supported by premiumisation as health consciousness
gains mainstream awareness. The mass grocery retail sector will benefit from higher value purchases and
an uptick in inflation throughout our forecast period, as these factors will provide growth impetus for sales.
? We forecast food sales to experience robust growth over the next five years by developed markets
standards. Rising health-consciousness will impact consumption patterns, with consumers favouring
categories with high protein content such as fish and dairy products.
? The health-consciousness trend will also have a strong effect on the soft drinks industry. We forecast
mineral water sales to grow by double-digit rates through to 2020, while the carbonated soft drinks
category will broadly stagnate.
? Although mass grocery retail sales will grow at a robust pace, industry structure - where the two leading
players control more than 90% of the market - will make it very difficult for other players to expand.
? In the alcoholic drinks industry, opportunities will come from premiumisation.