Mexico Power Report Q4 2016

Publisher Name :
Date: 03-Sep-2016
No. of pages: 64

BMI View: The launch of a new long-term energy auction and the announcement of tenders for power

transmission projects underscore our view that the Mexican power market will offer multiple business

opportunities over the coming years. These developments, coupled with Mexico's robust macroeconomic

prospects and government plans for significant investment in the industry, continue to support our positive

outlook for the Mexican power sector - with natural gas and renewables to outperform.

Latest Updates And Structural Trends

? In May 2016, the Mexican government (via the agency managing the wholesale power market, Cenace)

issued a tender for a second long-term energy and capacity auction, which is scheduled to be concluded

in September 2016. Similarly to the auction held in March 2016, Cenace will sign long-term power

purchase agreements (PPAs) with the auction's winners, and clean energy certiticates (CELs) will also be

awarded.

? In July 2016, it was reported that 87 companies plus productive state enterprise Comisión Federal de

Electricidad (CFE) have expressed interest in participating in the auction. Also in July, the Mexican

government signed 18 long-term power generation contracts with the 11 companies that had presented

the winning bids at the first auction in April.

? In July 2016 the CFE announced that electricity tariffs for industrial, residential and commercial clients

would rise in the month of July - the first time electricity prices head higher in more than one year. The

CFE blamed the expected hike on an increase in the price of natural gas and fuel oil compared to the

previous month. While Henry Hub and WTI prices rose in June, we think that the MXN sell-off in Q2

2016 exacerbated the impact on the cost of generating electricity via higher import expenses for the CFE

- given Mexico's high reliance on natural gas imports from the US.

Mexico Power Report Q4 2016

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View 7
Table: Headline Power Forecast (Mexico 2014-2020) 7
SWOT 9
Industry Forecast 11
Mexico Snapshot 11
Table: Country Snapshot: Economic and Demographic Data (Mexico 2015-2020) 11
Table: Country Snapshot: Economic and Demographic Data (Mexico 2020-2025) 11
Table: Country Snapshot: Power Sector 11
Mexico Power Forecast Scenario 12
Thermal Generation And Capacity Forecast 13
Hydropower Generation And Capacity Forecast 17
Non-Hydropower Renewables Generation And Capacity Forecast 18
Nuclear Power Generation And Capacity Forecast 20
Electricity Generation And Power Generating Capacity 22
Table: Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts (Mexico 2014-2019) 22
Table: Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts (Mexico 2020-2025) 23
Table: Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts (Mexico 2014-2019) 24
Table: Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts (Mexico 2020-2025) 24
Electricity Consumption 25
Table: Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts (Mexico 2014-2019) 25
Table: Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts (Mexico 2020-2025) 26
Transmission And Distribution, Imports And Exports 26
Table: Electric Power T&D Losses Data And Forecasts (Mexico 2014-2019) 28
Table: Electric Power T&D Losses Data And Forecasts (Mexico 2020-2025) 28
Table: Trade Data And Forecasts (Mexico 2014-2019) 28
Table: Trade Data And Forecasts (Mexico 2020-2025) 28
Industry Risk Reward Index 29
LatAm Risk & Reward Index (RRI): Macroeconomic Dynamics Weighing On Outlook 29
Mexico Power Risk/Reward Index 36
Rewards 36
Risks 37
Market Overview 38
Key Policies And Market Structure 38
Regulation And Competition 38
Sustainable Energy Policies 41
Pricing 42
Mexico Power Projects Database 42
Competitive Landscape 45
Table: Pemex Cogeneration Projects 46
Comisión Federal de Electricidad 46
Iberdrola 49
Gas Natural Fenosa 49
Regional Overview 51
LatAm Power: Key Regional Themes 51
Table: BMI'S KEY THEMES FOR LATIN AMERICA'S POWER INDUSTRY IN 2016 AND BEYOND 54
Table: New Opportunities In LatAm Power Transmission Sector 54
Glossary 58
Table: Glossary Of Terms 58
Methodology 59
Methodology And Sources 59
Industry Forecast Methodology 59
Sources 62
Risk/Reward Index Methodology 62
Table: Power Risk/Reward Index Indicators 63
Table: Weighting Of Indicators 64

List of Tables

Table: Headline Power Forecast (Mexico 2014-2020)
Table: Country Snapshot: Economic and Demographic Data (Mexico 2015-2020)
Table: Country Snapshot: Economic and Demographic Data (Mexico 2020-2025)
Table: Country Snapshot: Power Sector
Table: Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts (Mexico 2014-2019)
Table: Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts (Mexico 2020-2025)
Table: Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts (Mexico 2014-2019)
Table: Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts (Mexico 2020-2025)
Table: Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts (Mexico 2014-2019)
Table: Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts (Mexico 2020-2025)
Table: Electric Power T&D Losses Data And Forecasts (Mexico 2014-2019)
Table: Electric Power T&D Losses Data And Forecasts (Mexico 2020-2025)
Table: Trade Data And Forecasts (Mexico 2014-2019)
Table: Trade Data And Forecasts (Mexico 2020-2025)
Table: Pemex Cogeneration Projects
Table: BMI'S KEY THEMES FOR LATIN AMERICA'S POWER INDUSTRY IN 2016 AND BEYOND
Table: New Opportunities In LatAm Power Transmission Sector
Table: Glossary Of Terms
Table: Power Risk/Reward Index Indicators
Table: Weighting Of Indicators
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