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BMI View: We retain our generally positive outlook for the Mexican agricultural sector in our latest Q4
2016 report update. We have made some minor forecast revisions this quarter to account or production
variations. Growth rates will begin to weaken compared to previous years, but we see positive trends in
domestic consumption and production in the dairy and livestock sector. Grains will also begin to recover
and post a generally upwards trend. Nevertheless, we remain concerned about the severity of the roya rust
that is negative impacting the coffee crops in the country. Mexican coffee production has seen consecutive
years of declines and we have made further negative revisions based on the worsening rust problem. On the
demand side, rising per capita disposable incomes will continue to deliver demand-side growth, but we hold
our opinion that competitiveness remains an issue for the Mexican agricultural sector as a whole,
particularly in the grains, livestock and sugar subsectors.
? We estimate that Mexican corn production will decline by 1.9% in 2015/16 to reach 25.0mn tonnes.
Nevertheless, we estimate that the crop yields will recover over the course of our forecast period. Corn
consumption, already high in Mexico, will continue to witness modest growth rates to 2020.
? We forecast strong production growth in all three livestock sectors in Mexico, with pork production
outpacing poultry and beef and veal this year. Consumption growth will be stable in poultry and pork,
whereas higher costs will dampen beef and veal growth prospects in 2016.