Mexico Agribusiness Report Q4 2016

Publisher Name :
Date: 14-Sep-2016
No. of pages: 74

BMI View: We retain our generally positive outlook for the Mexican agricultural sector in our latest Q4

2016 report update. We have made some minor forecast revisions this quarter to account or production

variations. Growth rates will begin to weaken compared to previous years, but we see positive trends in

domestic consumption and production in the dairy and livestock sector. Grains will also begin to recover

and post a generally upwards trend. Nevertheless, we remain concerned about the severity of the roya rust

that is negative impacting the coffee crops in the country. Mexican coffee production has seen consecutive

years of declines and we have made further negative revisions based on the worsening rust problem. On the

demand side, rising per capita disposable incomes will continue to deliver demand-side growth, but we hold

our opinion that competitiveness remains an issue for the Mexican agricultural sector as a whole,

particularly in the grains, livestock and sugar subsectors.

Key Forecasts

? We estimate that Mexican corn production will decline by 1.9% in 2015/16 to reach 25.0mn tonnes.

Nevertheless, we estimate that the crop yields will recover over the course of our forecast period. Corn

consumption, already high in Mexico, will continue to witness modest growth rates to 2020.

? We forecast strong production growth in all three livestock sectors in Mexico, with pork production

outpacing poultry and beef and veal this year. Consumption growth will be stable in poultry and pork,

whereas higher costs will dampen beef and veal growth prospects in 2016.

Mexico Agribusiness Report Q4 2016

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View 7
SWOT 9
Industry Forecast 11
Livestock Outlook 11
Table: Mexico Livestock Production, Consumption & Trade Outlook 12
Table: Risks to Outlook 13
Table: Livestock Production & Consumption (Mexico 2013-2020) 14
Sugar Outlook 16
Table: Mexico - Sugar Production & Consumption Outlook 16
Table: Risks to Outlook 17
Table: Sugar Production & Consumption (Mexico 2012-2020) 19
Coffee Outlook 20
Table: Mexico Coffee Production & Consumption Outlook 21
Table: Risks to Outlook 21
Table: Coffee Production & Consumption (Mexico 2012-2020) 22
Dairy Outlook 23
Table: Mexico Dairy Production & Consumption Outlook 24
Table: Risks to Outlook 24
Table: Dairy Production & Consumption (Mexico 2013-2020) 26
Grains Outlook 27
Table: Mexico Production & Consumption Outlook 28
Table: Risks to Outlook 29
Table: Grain Production & Consumption (Mexico 2013-2020) 31
Commodities Price Analysis 32
Global - Global Commodities Strategy 32
Table: Select Commodities - Performance And BMI Forecasts 32
Upstream Analysis 34
Americas Machinery Outlook 34
Table: Select Companies - Sales Forecasts By Region (Company-based estimates) 37
Americas GM Outlook 41
Americas Fertiliser Outlook 48
Downstream Analysis 56
Food 56
Latest Updates 56
Structural Trends 57
Table: Food Sales (Mexico 2013-2020) 58
Regional Overview 61
Competitive Landscape 67
Table: Mexico Competitive Landscape 67
Demographic Forecast 68
Demographic Outlook 68
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Mexico 1990-2025) 69
Table: Key Population Ratios (Mexico 1990-2025) 69
Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (Mexico 1990-2025) 70
Table: Population By Age Group (Mexico 1990-2025) 70
Table: Population By Age Group % (Mexico 1990-2025) 71
Methodology 73
Industry Forecast Methodology 73
Sector-Specific Methodology 74

List of Tables

Table: Mexico Livestock Production, Consumption & Trade Outlook
Table: Risks to Outlook
Table: Livestock Production & Consumption (Mexico 2013-2020)
Table: Mexico - Sugar Production & Consumption Outlook
Table: Risks to Outlook
Table: Sugar Production & Consumption (Mexico 2012-2020)
Table: Mexico Coffee Production & Consumption Outlook
Table: Risks to Outlook
Table: Coffee Production & Consumption (Mexico 2012-2020)
Table: Mexico Dairy Production & Consumption Outlook
Table: Risks to Outlook
Table: Dairy Production & Consumption (Mexico 2013-2020)
Table: Mexico Production & Consumption Outlook
Table: Risks to Outlook
Table: Grain Production & Consumption (Mexico 2013-2020)
Table: Select Commodities - Performance And BMI Forecasts
Table: Select Companies - Sales Forecasts By Region (Company-based estimates)
Table: Food Sales (Mexico 2013-2020)
Table: Mexico Competitive Landscape
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Mexico 1990-2025)
Table: Key Population Ratios (Mexico 1990-2025)
Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (Mexico 1990-2025)
Table: Population By Age Group (Mexico 1990-2025)
Table: Population By Age Group % (Mexico 1990-2025)
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