Malaysia Agribusiness Report Q4 2016

Publisher Name :
Date: 28-Sep-2016
No. of pages: 79

BMI View: Malaysia's agribusiness sector is experiencing challenging times, as palm oil industry - its most

emblematic sector - is undermined by low prices and growing structural challenges. The cocoa sector is in

an even worse position, suffering a severe decline after the stellar performance of the 1990s. The cocoa

processing sector faces increasing competition from Indonesia and is losing market share at a fast

pace. The medium-term outlook is brighter, amid strong growth prospects in the poultry sector and

opportunities for value added palm based oleochemical exports. Malaysia will have to remain ahead of its

biggest competitor, Indonesia, if its agribusiness sector is to stay afloat. As such, the next challenge for the

country resides in the economic integration of ASEAN. The ASEAN Economic Community will present some

opportunities, for example for poultry exports. However, it also poses risks to the future of the sugar

refining sector.

Key Forecasts

? Palm oil production growth to 2019/20: 12.1% to 22.3mn tonnes. Production growth will reaccelerate

towards the end of our forecast period, after the slower growth recorded in recent years. The ongoing

replanting and yield improvement programmes will bear fruit and support output.

? Poultry production growth to 2019/20: 18.8% to 1.7mn tonnes. After a decade of strong growth, we

forecast poultry meat production to grow at a moderate pace in the coming years, as rising production

costs is undermining the development of the sector. Malaysia will maintain a fragile self-sufficiency in

poultry.

? Sugar consumption growth to 2020: 13.7% to 1.9mn tonnes. Consumption growth will be slower than

in the previous decade as it already comes from a high base, Malaysians being among the largest

consumers of sugar on a per capita basis. Future sugar demand will be driven mainly by rising incomes

and population growth.

Malaysia Agribusiness Report Q4 2016

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View 7
SWOT 10
Industry Forecast 12
Palm Oil Outlook 12
Table: Malaysia - Palm Oil Production And Consumption Outlook 13
Table: Malaysia - Risks To Palm Oil Outlook 13
Table: Palm Oil Production & Consumption (Malaysia 2013-2020) 19
Sugar Outlook 20
Table: Malaysia - Sugar Production And Consumption Outlook 21
Table: Malaysia - Risks To Sugar Outlook 21
Table: Sugar Production & Consumption (Malaysia 2012-2020) 25
Cocoa Outlook 26
Table: Malaysia - Cocoa Production And Consumption Outlook 26
Table: Malaysia - Risks To Cocoa Outlook 27
Table: Cocoa Production & Consumption (Malaysia 2012-2020) 30
Livestock Outlook 31
Table: Malaysia - Livestock Production And Consumption Outlook 32
Table: Malaysia - Risks To Livestock Outlook 33
Table: Beef Production & Consumption (Malaysia 2012-2020) 37
Table: Pork Production & Consumption (Malaysia 2012-2020) 37
Table: Poultry Production & Consumption (Malaysia 2012-2020) 38
Commodity Price Analysis 39
Commodities Price Forecasts 39
Table: Select Commodities - Performance & BMI Forecasts 39
Upstream Analysis 41
Asia Machinery Outlook 41
Table: Select Countries - Average Size Of Farms, Hectares 46
Asia GM Outlook 48
Table: Selected Countries - GM Crops Use (mn hectares) 52
Asia Fertiliser Outlook 53
Downstream Analysis 59
Food 59
Latest Updates 59
Structural Trends 60
Table: Food Sales (Malaysia 2013-2020) 63
Regional Overview 65
Competitive Landscape 71
Table: Main Agribusiness Players 71
Demographic Forecast 73
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Malaysia 1990-2025) 74
Table: Key Population Ratios (Malaysia 1990-2025) 74
Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (Malaysia 1990-2025) 75
Table: Population By Age Group (Malaysia 1990-2025) 75
Table: Population By Age Group % (Malaysia 1990-2025) 76
Methodology 78
Industry Forecast Methodology 78
Sector-Specific Methodology 79

List of Tables

Table: Malaysia - Palm Oil Production And Consumption Outlook
Table: Malaysia - Risks To Palm Oil Outlook
Table: Palm Oil Production & Consumption (Malaysia 2013-2020)
Table: Malaysia - Sugar Production And Consumption Outlook
Table: Malaysia - Risks To Sugar Outlook
Table: Sugar Production & Consumption (Malaysia 2012-2020)
Table: Malaysia - Cocoa Production And Consumption Outlook
Table: Malaysia - Risks To Cocoa Outlook
Table: Cocoa Production & Consumption (Malaysia 2012-2020)
Table: Malaysia - Livestock Production And Consumption Outlook
Table: Malaysia - Risks To Livestock Outlook
Table: Beef Production & Consumption (Malaysia 2012-2020)
Table: Pork Production & Consumption (Malaysia 2012-2020)
Table: Poultry Production & Consumption (Malaysia 2012-2020)
Table: Select Commodities - Performance & BMI Forecasts
Table: Select Countries - Average Size Of Farms, Hectares
Table: Selected Countries - GM Crops Use (mn hectares)
Table: Food Sales (Malaysia 2013-2020)
Table: Main Agribusiness Players
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Malaysia 1990-2025)
Table: Key Population Ratios (Malaysia 1990-2025)
Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (Malaysia 1990-2025)
Table: Population By Age Group (Malaysia 1990-2025)
Table: Population By Age Group % (Malaysia 1990-2025)
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