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BMI View: Progress towards formation of a unity government offers upside risk to production from 2017.
However, a fractured political and security environment, widespread damage to infrastructure and the
legacy of chronic underinvestment in the sector will all serve to slow the pace of recovery. Consumption
will remain heavily constrained, due to continued violence, repeated fuel and gas shortages and broader
Latest Updates And Key Forecasts
- Piecemeal progress in the UN-brokered peace talks towards a Libyan unity government poses upside risk
to our bearish oil and gas outlook. However, a polarised political scene and the deep fragmentation of the
conflict will see insecurity remain an enduring feature of the country's operating environment over the
- Exploration will remain heavily curtailed across much of our forecast period due to continued instability
and unattractive fiscal and licensing terms.
- Ongoing instability in Libya affected production throughout 2015, and we expect this dynamic to
continue into 2016. We forecast a 10.0% y-o-y decline in crude and condensates output, averaging