Libya Oil and Gas Report Q4 2016

Publisher Name :
Date: 05-Oct-2016
No. of pages: 75

BMI View: Progress towards formation of a unity government offers upside risk to production from 2017.

However, a fractured political and security environment, widespread damage to infrastructure and the

legacy of chronic underinvestment in the sector will all serve to slow the pace of recovery. Consumption

will remain heavily constrained, due to continued violence, repeated fuel and gas shortages and broader

economic dislocation.

Latest Updates And Key Forecasts

- Piecemeal progress in the UN-brokered peace talks towards a Libyan unity government poses upside risk

to our bearish oil and gas outlook. However, a polarised political scene and the deep fragmentation of the

conflict will see insecurity remain an enduring feature of the country's operating environment over the

coming years.

- Exploration will remain heavily curtailed across much of our forecast period due to continued instability

and unattractive fiscal and licensing terms.

- Ongoing instability in Libya affected production throughout 2015, and we expect this dynamic to

continue into 2016. We forecast a 10.0% y-o-y decline in crude and condensates output, averaging

358,000b/d.

Libya Oil and Gas Report Q4 2016

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View 7
Table: Headline Forecasts (Libya 2014-2020) 7
SWOT 8
Industry Forecast 9
Upstream Exploration 9
Latest Updates 9
Structural Trends 9
Upstream Projects 13
Table: Libya Major Upstream Projects 13
Upstream Production - Oil 16
Latest Updates 16
Structural Trends 16
Table: Oil Production (Libya 2014-2019) 18
Table: Oil Production (Libya 2020-2025) 19
Upstream Production - Gas 19
Latest Updates 19
Structural Trends 19
Table: Gas Production (Libya 2014-2019) 21
Table: Gas Production (Libya 2020-2025) 21
Refining 22
Latest Updates 22
Structural Trends 22
Table: Refining Capacity And Refined Products Production (Libya 2014-2019) 24
Table: Refining Capacity And Refined Products Production (Libya 2020-2025) 24
Refined Fuels Consumption 24
Latest Updates 25
Structural Trends 25
Table: Refined Products Consumption* (Libya 2014-2019) 26
Table: Refined Products Consumption* (Libya 2020-2025) 27
Gas Consumption 28
Latest Updates 28
Structural Trends 28
Table: Gas Consumption (Libya 2014-2019) 29
Table: Gas Consumption (Libya 2020-2025) 29
Trade - Oil 29
Latest Updates 29
Structural Trends: Crude Oil 29
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Libya 2014-2020) 32
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Libya 2020-2025) 33
Structural Trends: Refined Fuels 33
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Libya 2014-2019) 34
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Libya 2020-2025) 34
Trade - Gas (Pipeline & LNG) 35
Latest Updates 35
Structural Trends 35
Table: Gas Net Exports (Libya 2014-2019) 36
Table: Gas Net Exports (Libya 2020-2025) 37
Industry Risk/Reward Index 38
Africa - Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Index 38
Table: BMI Africa Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Index 38
Above-Ground Risks Dulling Below-Ground Potential 41
Table: BMI Africa Upstream Risk/Reward Index 41
Downstream Sector Holds Limited Opportunity 44
Table: BMI Africa Downstream Risk/Reward Index 44
Libya - Risk/Reward Index 47
Upstream Rewards 47
Upstream Risks 47
Downstream 48
Market Overview 49
Libya Energy Market Overview 49
Regulatory Structure 49
Licensing Regime 49
Table: Model EPSA Main Licensing Terms 50
Fiscal Regime 50
Table: Model EPSA Main Fiscal Terms 50
Licensing Rounds 50
Oil And Gas Infrastructure 51
Oil Refineries 51
Table: Libya Oil Refineries 51
Oil Terminals 51
Table: Libya Oil Terminals 51
LNG Terminals 52
Table: LNG Terminals In Libya 52
Oil & Gas Pipelines 52
Table: Libya Main Export Pipelines 52
Competitive Landscape 53
Competitive Landscape Summary 53
Table: Key Players - Libya Oil & Gas Sector 54
Table: Key Upstream Players 55
Company Profile 56
NOC 56
Table: Major Upstream Assets In Libya 57
Regional Overview 58
Africa - Bullish Gas, Bearish Oil 58
Table: Africa Oil & Gas Production, Consumption, Refining Capacity And Trade 67
Glossary 68
Table: Glossary Of Terms 68
Methodology 70
Industry Forecast Methodology 70
Source 72
Risk/Reward Index Methodology 72
Table: Bmi's Oil & Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Index 74
Table: Weighting 75

List of Tables

Table: Headline Forecasts (Libya 2014-2020)
Table: Libya Major Upstream Projects
Table: Oil Production (Libya 2014-2019)
Table: Oil Production (Libya 2020-2025)
Table: Gas Production (Libya 2014-2019)
Table: Gas Production (Libya 2020-2025)
Table: Refining Capacity And Refined Products Production (Libya 2014-2019)
Table: Refining Capacity And Refined Products Production (Libya 2020-2025)
Table: Refined Products Consumption* (Libya 2014-2019)
Table: Refined Products Consumption* (Libya 2020-2025)
Table: Gas Consumption (Libya 2014-2019)
Table: Gas Consumption (Libya 2020-2025)
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Libya 2014-2020)
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Libya 2020-2025)
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Libya 2014-2019)
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Libya 2020-2025)
Table: Gas Net Exports (Libya 2014-2019)
Table: Gas Net Exports (Libya 2020-2025)
Table: BMI Africa Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Index
Table: BMI Africa Upstream Risk/Reward Index
Table: BMI Africa Downstream Risk/Reward Index
Table: Model EPSA Main Licensing Terms
Table: Model EPSA Main Fiscal Terms
Table: Libya Oil Refineries
Table: Libya Oil Terminals
Table: LNG Terminals In Libya
Table: Libya Main Export Pipelines
Table: Key Players - Libya Oil & Gas Sector
Table: Key Upstream Players
Table: Major Upstream Assets In Libya
Table: Africa Oil & Gas Production, Consumption, Refining Capacity And Trade
Table: Glossary Of Terms
Table: Bmi's Oil & Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Index
Table: Weighting
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