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BMI View: From a low base, Kazakhstan's insurance market should undergo steady expansion through the
forecast period as an improving economic climate begins to drive household incomes higher, leading to
increased levels of spending and demand for discretionary insurance products. The life insurance sector,
which is the smaller of the two markets we monitor, should record double-digit growth in premiums in USD
terms through 2016-2020, through remaining a small market by global standards. While growth non-life
premiums will be slower, there are opportunities for investors in lesser-developed sub-sectors such as
health and personal accident insurance. The fragmented nature of the competitive landscape opens the door
for acquisitions and local partnerships, particularly as the regulatory environment starts to improve.
Key Updates And Forecasts
? An improving outlook for Kazakh economy is beginning to filter through into consumer markets and
demand for life, health, motor and other major insurance lines. Rising oil prices and graduate
strengthening of the tenge has lead BMI's Country Risk team to revise its headline economic forecasts,
with real GDP set to grow by 2.4% in 2017 before expanding by 5.1% a year over 2016-2017.
? The life insurance sector should be one of the main beneficiaries of the country's improving economic
climate, with premiums set to expand by 19.7% in local currency terms in 2016. Positive growth will
resume in US dollar terms from 2017, with premiums forecast to expand by 14.5% a year over 2017-2020
to reach USD525mn.