Indonesia Mining Report Q4 2016

Publisher Name :
Date: 05-Oct-2016
No. of pages: 91

BMI View: Indonesia's mineral production growth will remain slow on the back of heightened

environmental protection, slowdown in the Chinese economy and continued mineral price weakness. The

impending ban moderation on the export of mineral ores will provide some respite to production, especially

in the case of bauxite, although uncertainty on the issue will rumble on.

Latest Developments & Structural Trends

Under current regulations, as of September 2016:

- Minerals like copper, iron ore, lead and zinc are still allowed to be exported temporarily up to January

2017, to allow companies time to develop their smelters.

- Bauxite and nickel ores, however, were not given this temporary allowance, and exports have been

banned since January 2014.

Impact on exports in 2017 under current regulations:

- Iron ore, copper ore, zinc and lead ore exports will be close to nil, as major smelter construction will not

be completed by 2017, which means Indonesia will lose a large positive contributor to its GDP. As an

example, major copper producers Freeport McMoran and Newmont Nusa Tenggara have yet to complete

15% of the construction of their respective smelters.

- Nickel pig iron (NPI) smelters will come online and NPI exports will surge, along with nickel ore

production.

Indonesia Mining Report Q4 2016

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View 7
Table: Indonesia - Mining Industry Value Forecast (2012-2020) 7
Latest Developments & Structural Trends 7
Indonesia - Indonesia Ore Export Policy: Three Scenarios For 2017 9
Table: Mineral Production Forecasts (Indonesia 2012-2020) 13
SWOT 14
Industry Forecast 15
Bauxite: Export Ban Moderation Ahead 15
Latest Developments 15
Table: Bauxite Production Forecast (Indonesia 2012-2020) 15
Table: Indonesia - Major Bauxite Project 16
Structural Trends 16
Nickel: Production Boost Ahead 20
Latest Developments 20
Table: Nickel Production Forecast (Indonesia 2010-2020) 20
Table: Indonesia - Select Nickel Projects 20
Structural Trends 21
Coal: Better Growth In 2017 24
Latest developments 24
Table: Coal Production Forecast (Indonesia 2012-2020) 24
Table: Indonesia - Select Coal Projects 24
Structural Trends 25
Copper: Freeport To Drive Growth 33
Latest Developments 33
Table: Copper Production Forecast (Indonesia 2012-2020) 33
Table: Indonesia - Major Copper Projects 34
Structural Developments 34
Grasberg To Drive Output Growth 37
Tin: Subdued Growth Ahead 39
Latest Developments 39
Table: Tin Production Forecast (Indonesia 2012-2020) 39
Table: Indonesia - Major Tin Projects 40
Structural Trends 40
Industry Risk Reward Ratings 44
Risk/Reward Index 44
Rewards 44
Industry Rewards 44
Country Rewards 44
Risks 44
Industry Risks 44
Country Risks 45
Asia Risk/Reward Index 45
Key Takeaways 45
Latest Revisions 46
Table: Asia - Mining Risk/Reward Index 47
Regulatory Development 48
Key Developments 48
Ban Moderation On The Horizon 48
Table: Indonesia - Export Restrictions On Select Commodities 49
The 2009 Mining Law 49
Trade & Investment Risk Analysis 51
Commodities Forecast 55
Commodities Forecasts 55
Table: Select Commodities - Performance & BMI Forecasts 55
Competitive Landscape 57
Key Players 58
Table: Financial Data For Key Mining Firms Listed In Indonesia 58
Company Profile 61
PT Antam 61
Table: PT Antam - Key Financial Data 64
PT Bumi Resources 65
Table: Bumi Resources - Key Financial Data 67
PT Indo Tambangraya Megah Tbk (ITMG) 68
Table: ITM - Key Financial Data 69
PT Timah 70
Table: PT Timah - Key Financial Data 73
Freeport-McMoRan - Q4 2016 74
Table: Select Commodities - Price Forecasts 76
Table: Freeport McMoRan - Key Financial Data 80
Table: Copper Operational Highlights, 2015 81
Regional Overview 82
Asia Overview 82
Slowing Iron Ore Production 82
Indian Coal Consumption To Outperform 83
China & India To Lead In Outbound Investment 84
Indonesian Ban Moderation Ahead 85
Chinese Coal & Steel Sectors To Consolidate Slowly 87
Methodology 88
Industry Forecast Methodology 88
Sources 89
Risk/Reward Index Methodology 90
Table: Weighting Of Indicators 91

List of Tables

Table: Indonesia - Mining Industry Value Forecast (2012-2020)
Table: Mineral Production Forecasts (Indonesia 2012-2020)
Table: Bauxite Production Forecast (Indonesia 2012-2020)
Table: Indonesia - Major Bauxite Project
Table: Nickel Production Forecast (Indonesia 2010-2020)
Table: Indonesia - Select Nickel Projects
Table: Coal Production Forecast (Indonesia 2012-2020)
Table: Indonesia - Select Coal Projects
Table: Copper Production Forecast (Indonesia 2012-2020)
Table: Indonesia - Major Copper Projects
Table: Tin Production Forecast (Indonesia 2012-2020)
Table: Indonesia - Major Tin Projects
Table: Asia - Mining Risk/Reward Index
Table: Indonesia - Export Restrictions On Select Commodities
Table: Select Commodities - Performance & BMI Forecasts
Table: Financial Data For Key Mining Firms Listed In Indonesia
Table: PT Antam - Key Financial Data
Table: Bumi Resources - Key Financial Data
Table: ITM - Key Financial Data
Table: PT Timah - Key Financial Data
Table: Select Commodities - Price Forecasts
Table: Freeport McMoRan - Key Financial Data
Table: Copper Operational Highlights, 2015
Table: Weighting Of Indicators
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