India Power Report Q1 2013

Publisher Name :
Date: 16-Jan-2013
No. of pages: 92

BMI View: In light of India's economic and demographic growth, we expect power consumption to
increase from an estimated 697.65 terawatt hours (TWh) in 2011 to 1286.19TWh in 2021. The country's
12th Five-Year Plan anticipates energy demand will grow by 6% per annum and electricity capacity will
expand by 100 gigawatts (GW). Critical to the plan is the focus on measures to combat the continued rise
in India's dependence on imported energy, and a move to favour diversification towards renewable
sources as well as nuclear. The FY2012/13 budget announcement is indicative of this focus, with the
Indian government initiating a series of incentives and measures that will benefit the power sector.
The key trends and developments in the Indian electricity market are:
?? Several developments in H212 within India's renewables industry highlight the continued
interest the sector is receiving from private investors and the political will that underpins it. We
expect further significant growth in the industry, and maintain our belief that renewables present
significant investment opportunities. However, we highlight that renewable-generated electricity
is unlikely to contribute significantly to the country's overall power generation capacity. This is
founded on our concerns about the sheer size of India's electricity market, coupled with our
long-held view that the renewable industry will not reach its full potential.
?? India's coal shortage looks set to intensify as the weather turns wetter and colder. At the heart of
the problem lies the inability to launch a new mining bill that will address the sector's poor
business environment, as well as state-owned coal miner Coal India's inability to maximise the
country's coal potential. We believe coal shortages are likely to remain a downside risk to Indian
power producers and infrastructure activity over the short to medium term.
?? In the worst electricity disruption in a decade, two separate grid failures cut power supply to
more than 600mn people in 22 states at the end of July 2012. We believe the disruption is likely
to have come about as a result of the lack of investment in India's transmission and distribution
network, as well as in the broader electricity market. Consequently, we believe the July
disruption could be the spark that ignites a wave of long-needed reform in India's electricity
sector.
The Indian power sector's track record is testament to the difficulties the country faces in implementing
its ambitious targets. State government indebtedness is a major obstacle to marshalling the massive
infrastructure investment required, and a lack of depth in the Indian financial sector also limits funding
options. Furthermore, there is still a lack of regulatory transparency, longevity and certainty regarding the
domestic power sector.

India Power Report Q1 2013

BMI Industry View 5
SWOT Analysis ..... 6
India Power SWOT .......... 6
Regional Industry Overview ............ 7
Table: Vietnam's Power Development Roadmap ..... 10
Industry Forecast Scenario ........... 11
India Snapshot (Macro) ...... 11
Table: Country Snapshot: Economic and Demographic Data ............. 11
Table: Country Snapshot: Power Sector .... 11
India Forecast Scenario ...... 11
Electricity Generation and Power Generating Capacity........ 11
Table: India Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts, 2010 - 2017 .... 11
Table: India Total Electricity Generation Long Term Forecasts, 2014 - 2021 .. 14
Table: India Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts, 2010 - 2017 ............ 16
Table: India Electricity Generating Capacity Long Term Forecasts, 2014 - 2021 .......... 17
Electricity Consumption. 36
Table: India Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts, 2010 - 2017 . 36
Table: India Total Electricity Consumption Long Term Forecasts, 2014 - 2021 ............ 36
Transmission & Distribution, Imports & Exports .... 37
Table: India Electric Power Transmission And Distribution Losses Data And Forecasts, 2010 - 2017 ..... 37
Table: India Electric Power Transmission And Distribution Losses Long Term Forecasts, 2014 - 2021 ... 38
Table: India Trade Data And Forecasts, 2010 - 2017 ........... 38
Table: India Trade Long Term Forecasts, 2014 - 2021 ......... 38
Key Policies/Market Structure ...... 43
Regulation And Competition ........ 43
Key Projects Database ........ 45
Table: India Major Projects - Power ......... 45
Power Risk/Reward Ratings .......... 68
Asia Regional Power Risk/Reward Ratings .... 68
Table: Asia Power Risk/Reward Ratings ... 72
India Power Risk/Reward Ratings .... 72
Rewards ........... 73
Risks .. 73
Competitive Landscape ... 74
Power Grid ...... 74
National Thermal Power Corporation ....... 75
National Hydro-Electric Power Corporation........... 75
Nuclear Power Corporation Of India ........ 75
Company Monitor ............. 77
National Thermal Power Corporation (NTPC)........ 77
NHPC 81
Glossary of Terms ............ 84
Table: Glossary of Terms ............. 84
Methodology And Sources ............ 85
Industry Forecasts 85
Power Industry - Data Methodology .......... 86
Generation and Consumption Data ........... 86
Electricity Generation Capacity Data ........ 87
Power Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology ...... 87
Table: Power Risk/Reward Indicators ....... 89
Sources ............ 91Table: Vietnam's Power Development Roadmap
Table: Country Snapshot: Economic and Demographic Data
Table: Country Snapshot: Power Sector
Table: India Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts, 2010 - 2017
Table: India Total Electricity Generation Long Term Forecasts, 2014 - 2021
Table: India Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts, 2010 - 2017
Table: India Electricity Generating Capacity Long Term Forecasts, 2014 - 2021
Table: India Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts, 2010 - 2017
Table: India Total Electricity Consumption Long Term Forecasts, 2014 - 2021
Table: India Electric Power Transmission And Distribution Losses Data And Forecasts, 2010 - 2017
Table: India Electric Power Transmission And Distribution Losses Long Term Forecasts, 2014 - 2021
Table: India Trade Data And Forecasts, 2010 - 2017
Table: India Trade Long Term Forecasts, 2014 - 2021
Table: India Major Projects - Power
Table: Asia Power Risk/Reward Ratings
Table: Glossary of Terms
Table: Power Risk/Reward Indicators

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