China Agribusiness Report Q4 2016

Publisher Name :
Date: 14-Sep-2016
No. of pages: 114

BMI View: China's weight in the global agricultural sector is growing, as the country has an increasing

impact on international production balances and prices. China will maintain its appetite for key

commodities for the foreseeable future, with particular potential for production growth in sugar, dairy and

livestock. High demand growth, strong government support and the potential for investment and

consolidation in these industries will help them outperform in the coming years. However, the agribusiness

sector is experiencing challenging times, seen in the slowdown in meat and milk powder consumption in

2015.

Key Forecasts

? Soybean production growth to 2019/20: 0.9% to 12.3mn tonnes. In spite of the increase in production

in 2016/17, soybean production will remain low in China as the crop lack attractiveness for farmers.

• Pork production growth to 2019/20: 13.0% to 62.1mn tonnes. Increased production continues to be

encouraged on the back of elevated local livestock prices. The increased availability of vaccinations and

the ongoing commercialisation of the industry are also likely to boost output.

• Sugar consumption growth to 2020: 16.7% to 19.6mn tonnes. Consumption will be boosted by rising

income, which will support demand for products in key industries, such as the confectionery, dairy,

beverage, and food processing

• BMI universe agribusiness market value: USD1,327mn in 2016 (up 2.9% compared with 2015,

growth forecast to average 4.3% annually between 2016 and 2020).

• 2016 real GDP growth: 6.3% (down from 6.9% in 2015, forecast to average 5.8% between 2016 and

2020).

• 2016 consumer price inflation: 1.8% y-o-y average (up from 1.5% in 2015, forecast to average

2.3% between 2016 and 2020).

• 2016 Central Bank policy rate: 4.10% eop (down from 4.35% eop in 2015; forecast to average 4.10%

eop between 2016 and 2020.

China Agribusiness Report Q4 2016

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View 7
SWOT 10
Industry Forecast 12
Grains Outlook 12
Latest Updates 12
Table: China - Grains Production And Consumption Outlook 13
Table: China - Risks To Grains Outlook 14
Structural Trends 14
Table: China Minimum Price Support Programmes 16
Table: Grains Production & Consumption (China 2013-2020) 18
Rice Outlook 19
Latest Updates 19
Table: China - Rice Production And Consumption Outlook 19
Table: China - Risks To Rice Outlook 20
Structural Trends 20
Table: China Grains Procurement Prices (CNY/tonne) 21
Table: Rice Production & Consumption (China 2013-2020) 22
Oilseeds Outlook 23
Latest Updates 23
Table: China - Oilseeds Production And Consumption Outlook 24
Table: China - Risks To Oilseeds Outlook 24
Structural Trends 25
Table: Soybean Production & Consumption (China 2012-2020) 28
Table: Palm Oil Consumption (China 2013-2020) 28
Sugar Outlook 29
Latest Updates 29
Table: China - Sugar Production And Consumption Outlook 30
Table: China - Risks To Sugar Outlook 30
Structural Trends 30
Table: China - Sugarcane Floor Price (CNY/tonne) & Production By Province 31
Table: Sugar Production & Consumption (China 2013-2020) 35
Cotton Outlook 36
Latest Updates 36
Table: China - Cotton Production And Consumption Outlook 37
Table: China - Risks To Cotton Outlook 37
Structural Trends 37
Table: Cotton Production & Consumption (China 2013-2020) 42
Dairy Outlook 43
Latest Updates 43
Table: China - Dairy Production And Consumption Outlook 44
Table: China - Risks To Dairy Outlook 44
Structural Trends 45
Table: Selected Countries - Milk Production Cost, USD/100 kg milk ECM 48
Table: Dairy Production & Consumption (China 2013-2020) 52
Livestock Outlook 53
Latest Updates 53
Table: China - Livestock Production And Consumption Outlook 55
Table: China - Risks To Livestock Outlook 56
Structural Trends 56
Table: Livestock Production & Consumption (China 2013-2020) 60
Commodities Price Analysis 62
Global - Global Commodities Strategy 62
Table: Select Commodities - Performance And BMI Forecasts 62
Featured Analysis 64
13th Five-Year Plan: Implications For Agribusiness 64
Upstream Analysis 69
Asia GM Outlook 69
Table: Selected Countries - GM Crops Use (mn hectares) 74
Asia Machinery Outlook 75
Table: Select Countries - Average Size Of Farms, Hectares 80
Downstream Analysis 82
Food 82
Latest Updates 82
Structural Trends 83
Table: Food Sales (China 2013-2020) 86
Regional Overview 89
Competitive Landscape 95
Table: China - Major Agribusiness Companies 95
Appendix 97
13th Five-Year Plan: Key Points 97
Summary Of Contents 97
Chapter 1: Overview 98
Table: Targets 98
Chapter 2: Innovation To Drive Development 99
Chapter 3: Economic Institutions 100
Chapter 4: Modernisation Of The Agricultural Sector 101
Chapter 5: Industries 102
Chapter 6: Expand The Network Economy 103
Chapter 7: Build A Modern Infrastructure Network 103
Chapter 8: New-Type Urbanisation 104
Chapter 9: Coordination Of Regional Development 105
Chapter 10: Environmental Protection 106
Chapter 11: Continue Opening Up 106
Others: 106
Demographic Forecast 108
Table: Population Headline Indicators (China 1990-2025) 109
Table: Key Population Ratios (China 1990-2025) 109
Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (China 1990-2025) 110
Table: Population By Age Group (China 1990-2025) 110
Table: Population By Age Group % (China 1990-2025) 111
Methodology 113
Industry Forecast Methodology 113
Sector-Specific Methodology 114

List of Tables

Table: China - Grains Production And Consumption Outlook
Table: China - Risks To Grains Outlook
Table: China Minimum Price Support Programmes
Table: Grains Production & Consumption (China 2013-2020)
Table: China - Rice Production And Consumption Outlook
Table: China - Risks To Rice Outlook
Table: China Grains Procurement Prices (CNY/tonne)
Table: Rice Production & Consumption (China 2013-2020)
Table: China - Oilseeds Production And Consumption Outlook
Table: China - Risks To Oilseeds Outlook
Table: Soybean Production & Consumption (China 2012-2020)
Table: Palm Oil Consumption (China 2013-2020)
Table: China - Sugar Production And Consumption Outlook
Table: China - Risks To Sugar Outlook
Table: China - Sugarcane Floor Price (CNY/tonne) & Production By Province
Table: Sugar Production & Consumption (China 2013-2020)
Table: China - Cotton Production And Consumption Outlook
Table: China - Risks To Cotton Outlook
Table: Cotton Production & Consumption (China 2013-2020)
Table: China - Dairy Production And Consumption Outlook
Table: China - Risks To Dairy Outlook
Table: Selected Countries - Milk Production Cost, USD/100 kg milk ECM
Table: Dairy Production & Consumption (China 2013-2020)
Table: China - Livestock Production And Consumption Outlook
Table: China - Risks To Livestock Outlook
Table: Livestock Production & Consumption (China 2013-2020)
Table: Select Commodities - Performance And BMI Forecasts
Table: Selected Countries - GM Crops Use (mn hectares)
Table: Select Countries - Average Size Of Farms, Hectares
Table: Food Sales (China 2013-2020)
Table: China - Major Agribusiness Companies
Table: Targets
Table: Population Headline Indicators (China 1990-2025)
Table: Key Population Ratios (China 1990-2025)
Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (China 1990-2025)
Table: Population By Age Group (China 1990-2025)
Table: Population By Age Group % (China 1990-2025)
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