China Agribusiness Report Q4 2016

Publisher Name :
Date: 14-Sep-2016
No. of pages: 114

BMI View: China's weight in the global agricultural sector is growing, as the country has an increasing

impact on international production balances and prices. China will maintain its appetite for key

commodities for the foreseeable future, with particular potential for production growth in sugar, dairy and

livestock. High demand growth, strong government support and the potential for investment and

consolidation in these industries will help them outperform in the coming years. However, the agribusiness

sector is experiencing challenging times, seen in the slowdown in meat and milk powder consumption in

2015.

Key Forecasts

? Soybean production growth to 2019/20: 0.9% to 12.3mn tonnes. In spite of the increase in production

in 2016/17, soybean production will remain low in China as the crop lack attractiveness for farmers.

• Pork production growth to 2019/20: 13.0% to 62.1mn tonnes. Increased production continues to be

encouraged on the back of elevated local livestock prices. The increased availability of vaccinations and

the ongoing commercialisation of the industry are also likely to boost output.

• Sugar consumption growth to 2020: 16.7% to 19.6mn tonnes. Consumption will be boosted by rising

income, which will support demand for products in key industries, such as the confectionery, dairy,

beverage, and food processing

• BMI universe agribusiness market value: USD1,327mn in 2016 (up 2.9% compared with 2015,

growth forecast to average 4.3% annually between 2016 and 2020).

• 2016 real GDP growth: 6.3% (down from 6.9% in 2015, forecast to average 5.8% between 2016 and

2020).

• 2016 consumer price inflation: 1.8% y-o-y average (up from 1.5% in 2015, forecast to average

2.3% between 2016 and 2020).

• 2016 Central Bank policy rate: 4.10% eop (down from 4.35% eop in 2015; forecast to average 4.10%

eop between 2016 and 2020.

China Agribusiness Report Q4 2016

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View 7
SWOT 10
Industry Forecast 12
Grains Outlook 12
Latest Updates 12
Table: China - Grains Production And Consumption Outlook 13
Table: China - Risks To Grains Outlook 14
Structural Trends 14
Table: China Minimum Price Support Programmes 16
Table: Grains Production & Consumption (China 2013-2020) 18
Rice Outlook 19
Latest Updates 19
Table: China - Rice Production And Consumption Outlook 19
Table: China - Risks To Rice Outlook 20
Structural Trends 20
Table: China Grains Procurement Prices (CNY/tonne) 21
Table: Rice Production & Consumption (China 2013-2020) 22
Oilseeds Outlook 23
Latest Updates 23
Table: China - Oilseeds Production And Consumption Outlook 24
Table: China - Risks To Oilseeds Outlook 24
Structural Trends 25
Table: Soybean Production & Consumption (China 2012-2020) 28
Table: Palm Oil Consumption (China 2013-2020) 28
Sugar Outlook 29
Latest Updates 29
Table: China - Sugar Production And Consumption Outlook 30
Table: China - Risks To Sugar Outlook 30
Structural Trends 30
Table: China - Sugarcane Floor Price (CNY/tonne) & Production By Province 31
Table: Sugar Production & Consumption (China 2013-2020) 35
Cotton Outlook 36
Latest Updates 36
Table: China - Cotton Production And Consumption Outlook 37
Table: China - Risks To Cotton Outlook 37
Structural Trends 37
Table: Cotton Production & Consumption (China 2013-2020) 42
Dairy Outlook 43
Latest Updates 43
Table: China - Dairy Production And Consumption Outlook 44
Table: China - Risks To Dairy Outlook 44
Structural Trends 45
Table: Selected Countries - Milk Production Cost, USD/100 kg milk ECM 48
Table: Dairy Production & Consumption (China 2013-2020) 52
Livestock Outlook 53
Latest Updates 53
Table: China - Livestock Production And Consumption Outlook 55
Table: China - Risks To Livestock Outlook 56
Structural Trends 56
Table: Livestock Production & Consumption (China 2013-2020) 60
Commodities Price Analysis 62
Global - Global Commodities Strategy 62
Table: Select Commodities - Performance And BMI Forecasts 62
Featured Analysis 64
13th Five-Year Plan: Implications For Agribusiness 64
Upstream Analysis 69
Asia GM Outlook 69
Table: Selected Countries - GM Crops Use (mn hectares) 74
Asia Machinery Outlook 75
Table: Select Countries - Average Size Of Farms, Hectares 80
Downstream Analysis 82
Food 82
Latest Updates 82
Structural Trends 83
Table: Food Sales (China 2013-2020) 86
Regional Overview 89
Competitive Landscape 95
Table: China - Major Agribusiness Companies 95
Appendix 97
13th Five-Year Plan: Key Points 97
Summary Of Contents 97
Chapter 1: Overview 98
Table: Targets 98
Chapter 2: Innovation To Drive Development 99
Chapter 3: Economic Institutions 100
Chapter 4: Modernisation Of The Agricultural Sector 101
Chapter 5: Industries 102
Chapter 6: Expand The Network Economy 103
Chapter 7: Build A Modern Infrastructure Network 103
Chapter 8: New-Type Urbanisation 104
Chapter 9: Coordination Of Regional Development 105
Chapter 10: Environmental Protection 106
Chapter 11: Continue Opening Up 106
Others: 106
Demographic Forecast 108
Table: Population Headline Indicators (China 1990-2025) 109
Table: Key Population Ratios (China 1990-2025) 109
Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (China 1990-2025) 110
Table: Population By Age Group (China 1990-2025) 110
Table: Population By Age Group % (China 1990-2025) 111
Methodology 113
Industry Forecast Methodology 113
Sector-Specific Methodology 114

List of Tables

Table: China - Grains Production And Consumption Outlook
Table: China - Risks To Grains Outlook
Table: China Minimum Price Support Programmes
Table: Grains Production & Consumption (China 2013-2020)
Table: China - Rice Production And Consumption Outlook
Table: China - Risks To Rice Outlook
Table: China Grains Procurement Prices (CNY/tonne)
Table: Rice Production & Consumption (China 2013-2020)
Table: China - Oilseeds Production And Consumption Outlook
Table: China - Risks To Oilseeds Outlook
Table: Soybean Production & Consumption (China 2012-2020)
Table: Palm Oil Consumption (China 2013-2020)
Table: China - Sugar Production And Consumption Outlook
Table: China - Risks To Sugar Outlook
Table: China - Sugarcane Floor Price (CNY/tonne) & Production By Province
Table: Sugar Production & Consumption (China 2013-2020)
Table: China - Cotton Production And Consumption Outlook
Table: China - Risks To Cotton Outlook
Table: Cotton Production & Consumption (China 2013-2020)
Table: China - Dairy Production And Consumption Outlook
Table: China - Risks To Dairy Outlook
Table: Selected Countries - Milk Production Cost, USD/100 kg milk ECM
Table: Dairy Production & Consumption (China 2013-2020)
Table: China - Livestock Production And Consumption Outlook
Table: China - Risks To Livestock Outlook
Table: Livestock Production & Consumption (China 2013-2020)
Table: Select Commodities - Performance And BMI Forecasts
Table: Selected Countries - GM Crops Use (mn hectares)
Table: Select Countries - Average Size Of Farms, Hectares
Table: Food Sales (China 2013-2020)
Table: China - Major Agribusiness Companies
Table: Targets
Table: Population Headline Indicators (China 1990-2025)
Table: Key Population Ratios (China 1990-2025)
Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (China 1990-2025)
Table: Population By Age Group (China 1990-2025)
Table: Population By Age Group % (China 1990-2025)
  • Thailand Agribusiness Report Q1 2017
    Published: 30-Nov-2016        Price: US 1295 Onwards        Pages: 77
    BMI View: Thailand will maintain its status as a key Asian agricultural provider in the coming years, as the sector boasts strong export opportunities and government support, as well as an efficient food producing industry. The sugar and livestock sectors hold promising growth stories. However, the government's interference in the market, especially in the rice sector, will hinder the competitiveness of Thai production compared to its Asian rivals. Rice production will fa......
  • United Kingdom Agribusiness Report Q1 2017
    Published: 30-Nov-2016        Price: US 1295 Onwards        Pages: 79
    BMI View: Brexit will be a net negative for the UK agriculture industry due to short-term uncertainty followed by lower revenues and increased costs owing to less favourable subsidies, trade and labour conditions. We expect grains to be the most resilient sector due to its low production costs and greater ease in diversifying trade relationships. In contrast, sugar will be a clear underperformer as the UK will struggle to fully take advantage of the EU quota removal in 20......
  • China Agribusiness Report Q1 2017
    Published: 30-Nov-2016        Price: US 1295 Onwards        Pages: 130
    BMI View: China's weight in the global agricultural sector is growing, as the country has an increasing impact on international production balances and prices. China will maintain its appetite for key commodities for the foreseeable future, with particular potential for production growth in sugar, dairy and livestock. High demand growth, strong government support and the potential for investment and consolidation in these industries will help them outperform in the coming......
  • Algeria Agribusiness Report Q1 2017
    Published: 23-Nov-2016        Price: US 1295 Onwards        Pages: 61
    BMI View: Algeria will be unable to feed its growing levels of wheat and milk consumption as the country remains a major importer of food products. However, the government's new emphasis on the improvement of food self-sufficiency is helping to revive the sectors. While higher government support is likely to be positive for productivity and product quality in the medium term, Algeria will remain a key importer of wheat and dairy products in the coming years. The country i......
  • Angola, Botswana and Namibia Agribusiness Report Q1 2017
    Published: 23-Nov-2016        Price: US 1295 Onwards        Pages: 73
    BMI View: Increasing incomes and populations will see South West Africa enjoy long-term growth in corn production, however, this is not reflected within our forecast period owing to a sharp contraction in output in 2015/16 from which it will take all three nations we are covering time to recover the losses endured. During the five-year period through to the end of our forecasts in2019/20, we see consumption growth outpacing production growth in both Angola and Namibia; me......
  • Bangladesh Agribusiness Report Q1 2017
    Published: 23-Nov-2016        Price: US 1295 Onwards        Pages: 65
    BMI View: We have made some modest forecast revisions to the Bangladeshi agricultural sector in this update. Nevertheless, we maintain our cautious outlook towards the agricultural sector over the short term. The limited arable land available for acreage expansion, along with poor safety standards, will continue to weigh on production growth over our current forecast period out to 2020. Logistical problems and structural concerns plague the agricultural industry, particul......
  • Greece Agribusiness Report Q1 2017
    Published: 23-Nov-2016        Price: US 1295 Onwards        Pages: 65
    BMI View: Cheese production will see buoyant growth in the coming years due to strong export opportunities, while sugar will remain on a declining trend as competition is set to increase in the EU. Poultry consumption will still outperform the livestock sector due to its lower cost, providing a modest push to corn production towards the end of our forecast period to 2020. As the Greek economy finds relative stability going forward, our forecasts remain largely unchanged f......
  • Kenya Agribusiness Report Q1 2017
    Published: 23-Nov-2016        Price: US 1295 Onwards        Pages: 60
    BMI View: Kenya will continue to underperform its regional peers with regard to the development of its agricultural sector. Despite COMESA granting another extension to the sugar import safeguard, which will provide a short-term boost, we expect the country's sugar sector to remain regionally inefficient and to post very limited growth over the coming years. However, we continue to forecast steady coffee production growth due to improvements in husbandry techniques. Kenya......
  • Philippines Agribusiness Report Q1 2017
    Published: 23-Nov-2016        Price: US 1295 Onwards        Pages: 79
    BMI View: We hold a positive view on the Philippines' agribusiness sector in the long term, given the country's potential for expansion into new sectors, such as palm oil. We particularly like the outlook for sugar mills and believe the livestock sector will continue to show healthy growth rates. The Philippines' vast consumption market along with some government support, will foster domestic and foreign investment and favour output expansion. However, backyard farming an......
  • SERVICES
    Value for Money
    We believe in "optimum utilization of available budget and resources". While servicing our clients' (your) market research requirements, we keep the same approach in focus to help you get the best value for your $$s.
    Ever Growing Inventory
    Ranging from the smallest feasible / required data (datasheets, data facts, SWOT analysis, company profiles, etc) to full research reports that help you make decisions, our inventory is updated almost on a daily basis with the latest industry reports from domain experts that track more than 5000 niche sectors.
    One Stop Solution
    Need a custom research report on medical devices market? Require all available business intelligence on 3D printing industry? Exploring F&B sector of a particular country/region? RnRMarketResearch.com is your one-stop-solution to all market intelligence needs. We not only offer custom research and consulting services, we also "bundle" reports to meet your needs and help you fetch the data analysis you require for your business.
    Dedicated Client Engagement
    Not limited to only "finding" relevant reports for you, our client engagement team dedicates its efforts to understand your "business need" and accordingly maps available research data to help you move forward. Call "your" client engagement executive any time of your day and get your questions answered in order to make the correct business decision.
    Saving Time and Efforts
    Simply share your research requirement details with us and let us do all the hard work to find required intelligence for you. When you add up our "one stop solution" and "dedicated client engagement" services mentioned above, you obviously know the time and effort saving you do by working with us.
    Payment Flexibility
    Working with Fortune 500 organizations, we understand the importance of being flexible for payments. Share your payment terms with us and we will surely match up to them to ensure you get access to required business intelligence data without having to wait for the payment to be done.
    Post-Purchase Research Support
    Have questions after reading a report / datasheet bought through us? Not sure about the methodology used for data available in the research? Talk to us / Share your questions with us and if required, we will connect you with the analyst(s)/author(s) of the report(s) and ensure you get satisfactory answers for the same. Need more data / analysis / report(s) on the topic of your research/project? The RnRMarketResearch.com team is here for you 24X7 to support you with your post-purchase requirements. Subscription Offers & Packages (Get in touch with us for more details - sales@rnrmarketresearch.com / +1 888 391 5441 )
    • Ad Hoc
    • Pay - as - you - go / Bucket Subscriptions
    • Fixed Cost for #of reports
    • Customize / Personalize as per your needs