Brazil Agribusiness Report Q2 2013

Publisher Name :
Date: 20-Mar-2013
No. of pages: 130

BMI View: Overall, we see the most potential for growth for the soybean, livestock and coffee industry over the medium term. This is because of a shift in food consumption growth towards Asia for these items, while traditional buyers” demand will experience only subdued growth. We are positive about the sugar cane sector as a whole, as we see strong sugar cane production growth over the rest of our forecast period. This growth will benefit the ethanol industry first as ethanol economics are now favourable to biofuels production at the expense of sugar. In the short-term, we flag risks that the current record grain harvest will encounter problems at the export stage because of current queues at the country”s major ports and upcoming strikes. Among Brazilian agribusiness companies, we favour São Martinho because it is the largest player in the sector and the most likely to benefit from industry developments.

Grains & Livestock On Top

Brazil - BMI Market Value By Commodity (As % of total)

Note: The BMI Market Value is an addition of all domestically produced commodities” value (calculated by multiplying the production with the international benchmark prices, converted in US$/tonne).

Source: BMI

Key Forecasts

  • Sugar production growth to 2016/17: 16.8% to 43.1mn tonnes. Because replanting has been slower than initially expected, we project average growth over our forecast period. There are upside risks to our view.
  • Coffee consumption growth to 2016/17: 11.5% to 22.3mn bags. Coffee consumers in emerging markets that do not have a strong coffee culture are often very price-sensitive, which will drive demand for the cheaper robusta given its lower production costs.

Brazil Agribusiness Report Q2 2013

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View 7
SWOT 10
Agribusiness 10
Business Environment 11
Industry Forecast 13
Cocoa Outlook 13
Table: Brazil Cocoa Production & Consumption 13
Table: Brazil Cocoa Production & Consumption 15
Sugar Outlook 16
Table: Brazil Sugar Production & Consumption 17
Table: Brazil Sugar Production & Consumption 21
Grains Outlook 23
Table: Brazil Wheat Production & Consumption 24
Table: Brazil Corn Production & Consumption 24
Table: Brazil Barley Production & Consumption 24
Table: Brazil Wheat Production & Consumption 30
Table: Brazil Corn Production & Consumption 30
Table: Brazil Barley Production & Consumption 31
Coffee Outlook 32
Table: Brazil Coffee Production & Consumption, 2012-2017 33
Table: Brazil Coffee Production & Consumption, 2007-2012 36
Livestock Outlook 38
Table: Brazil Poultry Production & Consumption 39
Table: Brazil Beef & Veal Production & Consumption 39
Table: Brazil Pork Production & Consumption 39
Table: Brazil Poultry Production & Consumption 44
Table: Brazil Beef & Veal Production & Consumption 44
Table: Brazil Pork Production & Consumption 45
Dairy Outlook 46
Table: Brazil Milk Production & Consumption 47
Table: Brazil Butter Production & Consumption 47
Table: Brazil Cheese Production & Consumption 47
Table: Implied Grains/Milk Ratios From BMI Forecasts 50
Table: Brazil Milk Production & Consumption 53
Table: Brazil Butter Production & Consumption 53
Table: Brazil Cheese Production & Consumption 53
Cotton Outlook 55
Table: Brazil Cotton Production & Consumption 56
Table: Brazil Cotton Production & Consumption 59
Soybean Outlook 61
Table: Brazil Soybean Production & Consumption 62
Table: Brazil Soybean Production & Consumption 65
Commodities Price Analysis 67
Monthly Softs Update 67
Table: Select Agricultural Commodities - Performance & BMI Forecasts 77
Table: BMI Commodity Strategy 78
Monthly Grains Update 78
Table: Select Agricultural Commodities - Performance & BMI Forecasts 86
Upstream Analysis 88
Americas Fertiliser Outlook 88
Americas GM Outlook 92
Americas Machinery Outlook 98
Downstream Analysis 104
Food 104
Food Consumption 104
Table: Food Consumption Indicators - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2012-2017 105
Processed Food 105
Table: Canned Food Value/Volume Sales - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2012-2017 106
Table: Pasta Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2012-2017 106
Table: Meat Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2012-2017 106
Table: Fish Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2012-2017 107
Table: Jams & Jellies Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017 108
Table: Frozen Fruit & Vegetables Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2012-2017 108
Dairy 109
Table: Dairy Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2012-2017 109
Confectionery 111
Table: Confectionery Value/Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2012-2017 112
Table: Biscuits Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2012-2017 113
Drink 114
Hot Drinks 114
Table: Hot Drink Value/Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2012-2017 115
Alcoholic Drinks 116
Table: Alcoholic Drinks Value/Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2012-2017 117
Soft Drinks 118
Table: Soft Drinks Value/Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2012-2017 119
Mass Grocery Retail 120
Table: Mass Grocery Retail Sales By Format - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2012-2017 121
Table: Sales Breakdown By Retail Format Type (%) 122
Competitive Landscape 123
Table: Main Agribusiness Players 123
Demographic Forecast 124
Demographic Outlook 124
Table: Brazil''s Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (''000) 125
Table: Brazil''s Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total) 126
Table: Brazil''s Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020 127
Table: Brazil''s Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020 127
Methodology 128

List of Tables

Table: Brazil Cocoa Production & Consumption
Table: Brazil Cocoa Production & Consumption
Table: Brazil Sugar Production & Consumption
Table: Brazil Sugar Production & Consumption
Table: Brazil Wheat Production & Consumption
Table: Brazil Corn Production & Consumption
Table: Brazil Barley Production & Consumption
Table: Brazil Wheat Production & Consumption
Table: Brazil Corn Production & Consumption
Table: Brazil Barley Production & Consumption
Table: Brazil Coffee Production & Consumption, 2012-2017
Table: Brazil Coffee Production & Consumption, 2007-2012
Table: Brazil Poultry Production & Consumption
Table: Brazil Beef & Veal Production & Consumption
Table: Brazil Pork Production & Consumption
Table: Brazil Poultry Production & Consumption
Table: Brazil Beef & Veal Production & Consumption
Table: Brazil Pork Production & Consumption
Table: Brazil Milk Production & Consumption
Table: Brazil Butter Production & Consumption
Table: Brazil Cheese Production & Consumption
Table: Implied Grains/Milk Ratios From BMI Forecasts
Table: Brazil Milk Production & Consumption
Table: Brazil Butter Production & Consumption
Table: Brazil Cheese Production & Consumption
Table: Brazil Cotton Production & Consumption
Table: Brazil Cotton Production & Consumption
Table: Brazil Soybean Production & Consumption
Table: Brazil Soybean Production & Consumption
Table: Select Agricultural Commodities - Performance & BMI Forecasts
Table: BMI Commodity Strategy
Table: Select Agricultural Commodities - Performance & BMI Forecasts
Table: Food Consumption Indicators - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2012-2017
Table: Canned Food Value/Volume Sales - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2012-2017
Table: Pasta Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2012-2017
Table: Meat Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2012-2017
Table: Fish Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2012-2017
Table: Jams & Jellies Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017
Table: Frozen Fruit & Vegetables Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2012-2017
Table: Dairy Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2012-2017
Table: Confectionery Value/Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2012-2017
Table: Biscuits Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2012-2017
Table: Hot Drink Value/Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2012-2017
Table: Alcoholic Drinks Value/Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2012-2017
Table: Soft Drinks Value/Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2012-2017
Table: Mass Grocery Retail Sales By Format - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2012-2017
Table: Sales Breakdown By Retail Format Type (%)
Table: Main Agribusiness Players
Table: Brazil''s Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (''000)
Table: Brazil''s Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
Table: Brazil''s Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
Table: Brazil''s Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020

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