Argentina Oil and Gas Report Q1 2013

Publisher Name :
Date: 19-Dec-2012
No. of pages: 94

BMI View: The renationalisation of YPF and subsequent 'aggressive but realistic' strategic investment
plan set out by the company is the new driving force behind Argentina's energy sector. While foreign
interest in the country's shale potential exists, as evidenced by Chevron's recent entrance, we remain
bearish on the sector and its prospects for receiving much-needed foreign investment. We expect
production at existing fields to remain high into 2013, primarily on the back of continued pressure on
YPF to produce since its nationalisation. Further changes to our forecasts, including reserves and
refining capacity, will come when the implementation of the five-year plan begins in earnest.
The main trends and developments we highlight in the Argentine oil and gas sector are:
The fiscal regime needs work if Argentina is to secure adequate long-term investment and harness
the country's apparent potential. Indeed, YPF is looking to raise US$1bn in debt to fund its planned
2013 capital expenditures. In addition to the risks associated with investing in the recently
nationalised company, BMI believes that a sizeable currency devaluation is in store for Argentina
amid a broader weakening of the economy.
An audit carried out by US consultant Ryder Scott to assessed the potential of the Vaca Muerta
formation in Argentina's Neuquén Province to hold estimated prospective resources of 21.2bn barrels
of oil equivalent (boe), contingent resources of 1.5bn boe and booked proven, probable and possible
(3P) reserves of 116mn boe net to YPF. This is a considerable increase on a November 2011
contingent resources estimate of 927mn boe. In one of Repsol's last investor presentations as the
parent of YPF it noted that Argentina has the potential to replicate the shale revolution witnessed in
the US, while the CEO of US independent EOG Resources said that the Vaca Muerta play 'could be
bigger than the 5.7bn bbl Eagle Ford', a formation located in south Texas, US.
YPF's new investment plan envisages US$7bn in capital expenditure (capex) each year to 2017,
focusing on the unconventional plays at Vaca Muerta and marginal fields. The aim is to increase
production to 219.2boe by 2017, a rise of 37% on current production levels. YPF aims to increase the
number of new wells to 50 per year, in comparison to 19 wells per year between 2007 and 2011.
Repsol-YPF had previously estimated that it would invest US$25bn per year to double the country's
current oil and gas production.
Conventional oil volumes will continue to come under pressure, though the plan to increase
production from marginal fields could provide some respite if implemented as envisaged by YPF.
Our current estimates assume oil output falling in 2012, but recovering in 2013/14. By 2017, we
expect Argentina to be pumping an average 744,540 barrels per day (b/d).
Artificially low domestic prices for fuels insulate demand. However, the weakening macroeconomic
environment will take a toll on oil consumption. We now forecast annual average growth in oil
consumption of 2,1% to 2017, reaching 733,239 b/d. The trend of importing more and more refined
fuels while exporting less and less crude oil will continue according to our forecasts, pushing the cost
of imports higher. We forecast the cost of refined fuel imports to be US$3.21bn in 2013by 2012 and
rising to US$6.96bn by 2021. By 2018 we see net oil imports of 13,360b/d and rising thereafter,
ending Argentina's position as a net oil exporter.
Our forecasts suggest that natural gas production will reach 40.5bn cubic metres (bcm) by 2017,
although we are not factoring in any production from shale gas at this stage. The commercialisation
of the Vaca Muerta shale gas resources presents a strong upside risk to our forecast. Under the
current forecast scenario, imports of natural gas are expected to exceed 15bcm by 2017, up from
5.2bcm in 2011.
The cost of oil and gas imports costs will continue to rise steadily over the forecast period, with the
potential to nearly double by 2021 should there be no major progress in exploiting shale resources.
Indeed, gas imports will cost a total of US$4.6bn in 2013, rising to US$10.2bn in 2021. The value of
the country's oil exports will shift from US$304mn in 2013 to an import bill of US$9.6bn in 2021.
At the time of writing we assume an OPEC basket oil price for 2012 of US$107.05/bbl, falling to
US$99.10/bbl in 2013. Global GDP in 2012 is forecast at 3.2%, up from an assumed 3.1% in 2011,
reflecting slowing growth in China and uncertainty with regard to the eurozone debt situation. For 2013,
global GDP growth is estimated at 3.7%.

Argentina Oil and Gas Report Q1 2013

Table: Argentina Proven Oil and Gas Reserves and Total Petroleum Data, 2010-2016
Table: Argentina Proven Oil and Gas Reserves and Total Petroleum Data, 2015-2021
Table: Argentina Oil Production, Consumption and Net Exports, 2010-2016
Table: Argentina Oil Production, Consumption and Net Exports, 2015-2021
Table: Argentina Gas Production, Consumption and Net Exports, 2010-2016
Table: Argentina Gas Production, Consumption and Net Exports, 2015-2021
Table: Argentina Refining - Production and Consumption, 2010-2016
Table: Argentina Refining - Production and Consumption, 2015-2021
Table: Latin American Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Ratings
Table: Upstream Risk/Reward Ratings
Table: Downstream Risk/Reward Ratings
Table: Argentina - Upstream Projects Database
Table: Refineries In Argentina
Table: Key Players - Argentine Oil And Gas Sector
Table: Key Upstream Players
Table: Key Downstream Players
Table: Global Oil Demand Forecasts - A Comparison
Table: Oil Consumption - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2016 ('000b/d)
Table: Oil Consumption - Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021 ('000b/d)
Table: Oil Production - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2016 ('000b/d)
Table: Oil Production - Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021 ('000b/d)
Table: Refining Capacity - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2016 ('000b/d)
Table: Refining Capacity - Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021 ('000b/d)
Table: Gas Consumption - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2016 (bcm)
Table: Gas Consumption - Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021 (bcm)
Table: Gas Production - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2016 (bcm)
Table: Gas Production - Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021 (bcm)
Table: LNG Exports - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2016 (bcm)
Table: LNG Exports - Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021 (bcm)
Table: Glossary Of Terms
Table: BMI's Oil & Gas Business Environment Ratings - Structure
Table: BMI's Oil & Gas Upstream Ratings - Methodology
Table: BMI's Oil & Gas Business Environment Downstream Ratings - Methodology

  • Global Public Safety LTE Ecosystem Overview
    In view of its flourishing ecosystem, spectrum flexibility and performance metrics, LTE has emerged as the leading candidate for public safety mobile broadband networks. Public safety organizations and establishments have already begun planning to advance their networks to LTE-based public safety solutions. LTE provisions a varied range of services, from high bandwidth data services to [...]
  • RnR Market Research: Biochips Market Insights
    Growing R&D investment and subcontracting of pharmaceutical companies would lead to growth in biochips market in Asia along with an increase in the application of biochips products is estimated to improve opportunity for the global biochip market. Conversely, the high cost involved in manufacturing of biochips can be seen as a challenge for the same. [...]
  • Current State of Blood Banking Market, Products, Technologies and Services
    The global blood banking and blood products market is expected to reach US$41.9 billion by 2020 with USA continuing to be the largest market worldwide. Asia-Pacific follows a close second with a projected CAGR of 9.1% during this period owing to the refining healthcare infrastructure and increase in the per capita healthcare expenditure. The major [...]
  • Surgical Robots Market 2016 Updates on Companies, Products and More
    Surgical robots are medical devices that assist surgeons in performing many types of complex procedures with more accuracy, flexibility and control than is possible with conventional techniques. The aim of surgical robots market players is to provide improved diagnostic skills, a less invasive and more comfortable experience for the patient, and the ability to do [...]
  • International Wound Cleanser Industry 2019 Forecasts with Feasibility Study of Future Projects
    ‘Market Research Report on Global and Chinese Wound Cleanser Industry, 2009-2019’ is a comprehensive market research report that offers top-notch industry insights and analyzes the growth prospects of the industry, along with evaluating the up-surging opportunities in the Global and Chinese market over the forecast period of 2014-2019. The methodically planned sections of the research [...]
  • Algeria Oil and Gas Report Q3 2016
    Published: 29-Jun-2016        Price: US 1295 Onwards        Pages: 80
    BMI View: The outlook on Algerian oil production is heavily bearish, due to rapid decline rates at mature producing fields and the small pipeline of projects under development. The outlook on gas is slightly more positive, although strong domestic consumption growth will continue to weigh on exports. Reversing longer-term production declines depends on pulling increased foreign investment into the sector, including recent announcements of plans to allow companies to direc......
  • Australia Oil and Gas Report Q3 2016
    Published: 29-Jun-2016        Price: US 1295 Onwards        Pages: 88
    BMI View: Australia is on course to overtake Qatar to become the largest exporter of LNG by 2019, as the addition of new production trains at existing facilities and the commencement of several new ones over the next few years lead a strong upsurge in export volumes. In contrast, it will become increasingly dependent on refined fuels imports as insufficient refining capacity will not be matched by rising demand. The main trends and developments we highlight for Australia'......
  • Denmark Oil and Gas Report Q3 2016
    Published: 29-Jun-2016        Price: US 1295 Onwards        Pages: 79
    BMI View: Development delays at the Hejre field and the accompanying forecast change will see Denmark become a crude net importer throughout the forecast period. While its status as a gas net exporter is maintained at the moment, we highlight strong downside risk to gas production and exports after Maersk Oil expressed a potential interest in closing the Tyra East and Tyra West fields by 2018. Latest Updates And Key Forecasts ? The seventh licensing round was launch......
  • Ghana Oil and Gas Report Q3 2016
    Published: 29-Jun-2016        Price: US 1295 Onwards        Pages: 83
    BMI View: With the start up of new production at TEN and Sankofa fields, as well as increasing output from the country's flagship Jubilee field, we expect Ghana to double its crude and gas production over the next five years. We note an upside risk to our projections arising from the ongoing exploration activities over the medium term, but the country's output levels have been suffering from recurring technical issues at the production facilities. Our outlook for Ghana's ......
  • Poland Oil and Gas Report Q3 2016
    Published: 29-Jun-2016        Price: US 1295 Onwards        Pages: 101
    BMI View: We have recently downgraded Poland's long-term gas production outlook, removing any contribution in growth from shale gas. The slow pace of exploration is unlikely to pick up in the coming years, tempering the development of below-ground understanding and optimised drilling and hydraulic fracturing processes required for Poland's challenging geology. Conventional gas exploration and developments will slowly boost gas production over our forecast period. Th......
  • Singapore Oil and Gas Report Q3 2016
    Published: 29-Jun-2016        Price: US 1295 Onwards        Pages: 62
    BMI View: Singapore will remain a key refining and petrochemicals hub in the Asia-Pacific region, supported by a well-developed downstream sector and world-class port infrastructure. The country will remain a large net importer of residual fuel oil (used to refuel ships stopping at its port) as domestic refineries are largely optimised to produce higher-value light-to-middle distillates. Singapore is also looking to improve its LNG sector, with ongoing expansion works set......
  • Slovenia Oil and Gas Report Q3 2016
    Published: 29-Jun-2016        Price: US 1295 Onwards        Pages: 57
    BMI View: Slovenia's upstream sector remains close to inexistent, with little to no oil or gas production within our forecast period. While there is upside risk in the gas segment attributed to the Ascentoperated Petišovci tight gas project, the initiative faces continued regulatory and funding headwinds. Overall volumes are likely to be relatively modest in the case of project realisation, with imported Russian gas set to dominate supply for the foreseeable future.......
  • Bulgaria Oil and Gas Report Q3 2016
    Published: 22-Jun-2016        Price: US 1295 Onwards        Pages: 69
    BMI View: Improvements in the refining sector have boosted refined fuels production, though 2016 will be tougher with margins expected to drop. The restart of exploration in the Black Sea is positive for Bulgaria's oil and gas sector, which has suffered from heavy production declines in 2015. The main trends and developments in Bulgaria's oil and gas sector are: ? Total has started drilling in the Black Sea Khan-Asparuh block as of May 2016. Results are expected wit......
  • Greece Oil and Gas Report Q3 2016
    Published: 22-Jun-2016        Price: US 1295 Onwards        Pages: 80
    BMI View: The start of construction work on the Trans Adriatic Pipeline (TAP) marks a milestone for the Greek midstream sector and our outlook for its natural gas sector. We reiterate our view that natural gas, especially midstream, will be the largest growth opportunity in the Greek energy space with TAP beginning construction in June and DEPA focusing on growing the domestic gas market infrastructure. However, tax hikes on gas consumption for large industrial users will......
  • SERVICES
    Value for Money
    We believe in "optimum utilization of available budget and resources". While servicing our clients' (your) market research requirements, we keep the same approach in focus to help you get the best value for your $$s.
    Ever Growing Inventory
    Ranging from the smallest feasible / required data (datasheets, data facts, SWOT analysis, company profiles, etc) to full research reports that help you make decisions, our inventory is updated almost on a daily basis with the latest industry reports from domain experts that track more than 5000 niche sectors.
    One Stop Solution
    Need a custom research report on medical devices market? Require all available business intelligence on 3D printing industry? Exploring F&B sector of a particular country/region? RnRMarketResearch.com is your one-stop-solution to all market intelligence needs. We not only offer custom research and consulting services, we also "bundle" reports to meet your needs and help you fetch the data analysis you require for your business.
    Dedicated Client Engagement
    Not limited to only "finding" relevant reports for you, our client engagement team dedicates its efforts to understand your "business need" and accordingly maps available research data to help you move forward. Call "your" client engagement executive any time of your day and get your questions answered in order to make the correct business decision.
    Saving Time and Efforts
    Simply share your research requirement details with us and let us do all the hard work to find required intelligence for you. When you add up our "one stop solution" and "dedicated client engagement" services mentioned above, you obviously know the time and effort saving you do by working with us.
    Payment Flexibility
    Working with Fortune 500 organizations, we understand the importance of being flexible for payments. Share your payment terms with us and we will surely match up to them to ensure you get access to required business intelligence data without having to wait for the payment to be done.
    Post-Purchase Research Support
    Have questions after reading a report / datasheet bought through us? Not sure about the methodology used for data available in the research? Talk to us / Share your questions with us and if required, we will connect you with the analyst(s)/author(s) of the report(s) and ensure you get satisfactory answers for the same. Need more data / analysis / report(s) on the topic of your research/project? The RnRMarketResearch.com team is here for you 24X7 to support you with your post-purchase requirements. Subscription Offers & Packages (Get in touch with us for more details - sales@rnrmarketresearch.com / +1 888 391 5441 )
    • Ad Hoc
    • Pay - as - you - go / Bucket Subscriptions
    • Fixed Cost for #of reports
    • Customize / Personalize as per your needs