Argentina Oil and Gas Report Q1 2013

Publisher Name :
Date: 19-Dec-2012
No. of pages: 94

BMI View: The renationalisation of YPF and subsequent 'aggressive but realistic' strategic investment
plan set out by the company is the new driving force behind Argentina's energy sector. While foreign
interest in the country's shale potential exists, as evidenced by Chevron's recent entrance, we remain
bearish on the sector and its prospects for receiving much-needed foreign investment. We expect
production at existing fields to remain high into 2013, primarily on the back of continued pressure on
YPF to produce since its nationalisation. Further changes to our forecasts, including reserves and
refining capacity, will come when the implementation of the five-year plan begins in earnest.
The main trends and developments we highlight in the Argentine oil and gas sector are:
The fiscal regime needs work if Argentina is to secure adequate long-term investment and harness
the country's apparent potential. Indeed, YPF is looking to raise US$1bn in debt to fund its planned
2013 capital expenditures. In addition to the risks associated with investing in the recently
nationalised company, BMI believes that a sizeable currency devaluation is in store for Argentina
amid a broader weakening of the economy.
An audit carried out by US consultant Ryder Scott to assessed the potential of the Vaca Muerta
formation in Argentina's Neuquén Province to hold estimated prospective resources of 21.2bn barrels
of oil equivalent (boe), contingent resources of 1.5bn boe and booked proven, probable and possible
(3P) reserves of 116mn boe net to YPF. This is a considerable increase on a November 2011
contingent resources estimate of 927mn boe. In one of Repsol's last investor presentations as the
parent of YPF it noted that Argentina has the potential to replicate the shale revolution witnessed in
the US, while the CEO of US independent EOG Resources said that the Vaca Muerta play 'could be
bigger than the 5.7bn bbl Eagle Ford', a formation located in south Texas, US.
YPF's new investment plan envisages US$7bn in capital expenditure (capex) each year to 2017,
focusing on the unconventional plays at Vaca Muerta and marginal fields. The aim is to increase
production to 219.2boe by 2017, a rise of 37% on current production levels. YPF aims to increase the
number of new wells to 50 per year, in comparison to 19 wells per year between 2007 and 2011.
Repsol-YPF had previously estimated that it would invest US$25bn per year to double the country's
current oil and gas production.
Conventional oil volumes will continue to come under pressure, though the plan to increase
production from marginal fields could provide some respite if implemented as envisaged by YPF.
Our current estimates assume oil output falling in 2012, but recovering in 2013/14. By 2017, we
expect Argentina to be pumping an average 744,540 barrels per day (b/d).
Artificially low domestic prices for fuels insulate demand. However, the weakening macroeconomic
environment will take a toll on oil consumption. We now forecast annual average growth in oil
consumption of 2,1% to 2017, reaching 733,239 b/d. The trend of importing more and more refined
fuels while exporting less and less crude oil will continue according to our forecasts, pushing the cost
of imports higher. We forecast the cost of refined fuel imports to be US$3.21bn in 2013by 2012 and
rising to US$6.96bn by 2021. By 2018 we see net oil imports of 13,360b/d and rising thereafter,
ending Argentina's position as a net oil exporter.
Our forecasts suggest that natural gas production will reach 40.5bn cubic metres (bcm) by 2017,
although we are not factoring in any production from shale gas at this stage. The commercialisation
of the Vaca Muerta shale gas resources presents a strong upside risk to our forecast. Under the
current forecast scenario, imports of natural gas are expected to exceed 15bcm by 2017, up from
5.2bcm in 2011.
The cost of oil and gas imports costs will continue to rise steadily over the forecast period, with the
potential to nearly double by 2021 should there be no major progress in exploiting shale resources.
Indeed, gas imports will cost a total of US$4.6bn in 2013, rising to US$10.2bn in 2021. The value of
the country's oil exports will shift from US$304mn in 2013 to an import bill of US$9.6bn in 2021.
At the time of writing we assume an OPEC basket oil price for 2012 of US$107.05/bbl, falling to
US$99.10/bbl in 2013. Global GDP in 2012 is forecast at 3.2%, up from an assumed 3.1% in 2011,
reflecting slowing growth in China and uncertainty with regard to the eurozone debt situation. For 2013,
global GDP growth is estimated at 3.7%.

Argentina Oil and Gas Report Q1 2013

Table: Argentina Proven Oil and Gas Reserves and Total Petroleum Data, 2010-2016
Table: Argentina Proven Oil and Gas Reserves and Total Petroleum Data, 2015-2021
Table: Argentina Oil Production, Consumption and Net Exports, 2010-2016
Table: Argentina Oil Production, Consumption and Net Exports, 2015-2021
Table: Argentina Gas Production, Consumption and Net Exports, 2010-2016
Table: Argentina Gas Production, Consumption and Net Exports, 2015-2021
Table: Argentina Refining - Production and Consumption, 2010-2016
Table: Argentina Refining - Production and Consumption, 2015-2021
Table: Latin American Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Ratings
Table: Upstream Risk/Reward Ratings
Table: Downstream Risk/Reward Ratings
Table: Argentina - Upstream Projects Database
Table: Refineries In Argentina
Table: Key Players - Argentine Oil And Gas Sector
Table: Key Upstream Players
Table: Key Downstream Players
Table: Global Oil Demand Forecasts - A Comparison
Table: Oil Consumption - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2016 ('000b/d)
Table: Oil Consumption - Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021 ('000b/d)
Table: Oil Production - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2016 ('000b/d)
Table: Oil Production - Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021 ('000b/d)
Table: Refining Capacity - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2016 ('000b/d)
Table: Refining Capacity - Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021 ('000b/d)
Table: Gas Consumption - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2016 (bcm)
Table: Gas Consumption - Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021 (bcm)
Table: Gas Production - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2016 (bcm)
Table: Gas Production - Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021 (bcm)
Table: LNG Exports - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2016 (bcm)
Table: LNG Exports - Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021 (bcm)
Table: Glossary Of Terms
Table: BMI's Oil & Gas Business Environment Ratings - Structure
Table: BMI's Oil & Gas Upstream Ratings - Methodology
Table: BMI's Oil & Gas Business Environment Downstream Ratings - Methodology

  • Healthy Diet Demand In Developed Economies To Boost Nutraceuticals
    As customers scuffle to keep up with the frantic lifestyles, the necessity for healthy nutrition rises owing to dearth of time to spend on laborious exercises.  Customers are shifting their attention to swift and healthy food behaviours. Increase in intake of beverages and functional food has offered makers of nutraceuticals with money-spinning prospects to benefit [...]
  • World Economic Forum Unveils Top 10 Emerging Technologies of 2016
    The World Economic Forum (WEF) and Scientific American lately unveiled the major technological innovation list of the top ten emerging technologies of 2016. This list emphasizes on the technological developments which have the supremacy to transform industries, protect the planet, and improve lives. It also presents an opening to discuss any societal, human, economic or [...]
  • Siemens Adds To the Growth of Wind Power Generation Market
    Siemens has been presenting ground-breaking strategies and pioneering solutions for energy generation for an intelligent power supply globally. With an expansive portfolio and wide-ranging proficiency in wind power generation, Siemens is likely to aid in increasing the share of wind power in the US energy mix. With New Mexico’s vicinity to significant wind energy areas, [...]
  • Global Public Safety LTE Ecosystem Overview
    In view of its flourishing ecosystem, spectrum flexibility and performance metrics, LTE has emerged as the leading candidate for public safety mobile broadband networks. Public safety organizations and establishments have already begun planning to advance their networks to LTE-based public safety solutions. LTE provisions a varied range of services, from high bandwidth data services to [...]
  • RnR Market Research: Biochips Market Insights
    Growing R&D investment and subcontracting of pharmaceutical companies would lead to growth in biochips market in Asia along with an increase in the application of biochips products is estimated to improve opportunity for the global biochip market. Conversely, the high cost involved in manufacturing of biochips can be seen as a challenge for the same. [...]
  • Denmark Oil and Gas Report Q4 2016
    Published: 28-Sep-2016        Price: US 1295 Onwards        Pages: 80
    BMI View: Development delays at the Hejre field and the accompanying forecast change will see Denmark become a crude net importer throughout the forecast period. While its status as a gas net exporter is maintained at the moment, we highlight strong downside risk to gas production and exports after Maersk Oil expressed the possibility of closing the Tyra East and Tyra West fields by 2018. Latest Updates And Key Forecasts ? The seventh licensing round was launched in......
  • Indonesia Oil and Gas Report Q4 2016
    Published: 28-Sep-2016        Price: US 1295 Onwards        Pages: 123
    BMI View: Regulatory uncertainty and low oil prices will impede exploration in Indonesia at least at present. Though refinery upgrades and newbuild projects are drawing interest from national oil companies, they are progressing slowly and Indonesia will remain a large importer of refined fuels. Latest Updates and Key Forecasts ? We believe that the proposed amendment to Indonesia's oil and gas law will create regulatory uncertainty. Together with the low oil price e......
  • Saudi Arabia Oil and Gas Report Q4 2016
    Published: 28-Sep-2016        Price: US 1295 Onwards        Pages: 74
    BMI View: Crude production in Saudi Arabia continues to grow, as the kingdom looks to balance existing export commitments with rising demand domestically. Export volumes will be supported by increased oil-togas switching in the power sector in 2016, with the commissioning of the Wasit gas plant. In order to grow the role of gas in the longer term, Aramco is targeting development of its vast unconventionals potential. However, we expect progress here to remain slow, despit......
  • Taiwan Oil and Gas Report Q4 2016
    Published: 28-Sep-2016        Price: US 1295 Onwards        Pages: 70
    BMI View: Taiwan has limited hydrocarbons reserves, which depresses domestic production levels and makes the country a significant importer of oil and gas. Growing use of gas for power generation and the ongoing modernization of the country's refining sector will further raise Taiwan's demand, thus imports of crude oil and LNG over the coming decade. We believe that additional regasification capacity and LNG supplies post-2020 will be needed to support higher gas consumpt......
  • Albania Oil and Gas Report Q4 2016
    Published: 28-Sep-2016        Price: US 1295 Onwards        Pages: 60
    BMI View: Weak oil prices have essentially stalled exploration and development work in Albania's upstream, and will negatively impact production in 2016. Two key companies are exiting their position in the country, though Shell is involved in a new drilling campaign. Latest Updates And Key Forecasts ? Oil production in H116 has fallen heavily, averaging around 19,000b/d after drilling was halted across the country. ? In June, Shell spud the Shpirag-3 well, whi......
  • Australia Oil and Gas Report Q4 2016
    Published: 28-Sep-2016        Price: US 1295 Onwards        Pages: 90
    BMI View: Australia is well on course to become the largest LNG exporter in the world as it awaits the commencement of three new LNG projects over the next two to three years. The country will overtake Qatar by 2019. The heavy volume of existing gas reserves tied to exports have driven up domestic gas prices and increases risks of a supply shortage at home, though government plans to increase investment in gas distribution infrastructure and make more supplies available f......
  • Crude Oil Flow Improvers (COFI) Market by Type (Paraffin Inhibitors, Asphaltene Inhibitors, Scale Inhibitors, Drag Reducing Agents, and Hydrate Inhibitors), Application (Extraction, Pipeline, and Refinery), Supply Mode - Global Forecast to 2021
    Published: 22-Sep-2016        Price: US 5650 Onwards        Pages: 111
    “Rise in crude oil production worldwide drives the COFI market” The global market size of COFI is estimated to reach USD 1.73 billion by 2021from 1.32 billion in 2016, at a CAGR of 5.5%. Excessive supply of oil worldwide ,has pushed down oil prices. Countries such as the U.S. have made considerable investments in unconventional drilling technologies, such as hydraulic fracturing (fracking). Hence, the U.S. cannot afford to cut down production so as to redu......
  • Cameroon Oil and Gas Report Q4 2016
    Published: 21-Sep-2016        Price: US 1295 Onwards        Pages: 83
    BMI View: With an FID on Golar LNG and a stronger-than-expected oil production growth, Cameroon benefited from an upward revision in both oil and gas production over our forecast period. In addition, the country will now become an LNG net exporter from 2017 onward, an important tool for exports diversification, notably after the large oil price drop over the past year. Nevertheless, we maintain that Cameroon remains a modest oil and gas producer and more exploration will ......
  • Gabon Oil and Gas Report Q4 2016
    Published: 21-Sep-2016        Price: US 1295 Onwards        Pages: 88
    BMI View: Gabon's oil sector remains vulnerable to the decline in global oil prices, with reports of delays to a key upstream project on the back of uncertain economic conditions. Continued upstream investment is indicative of the market's untapped potential, but above-ground worries ranging from industrial action to unattractive fiscal terms will remain obstacles to the sustained investment necessary to reverse declining reserves and output. The main trends and dev......
  • SERVICES
    Value for Money
    We believe in "optimum utilization of available budget and resources". While servicing our clients' (your) market research requirements, we keep the same approach in focus to help you get the best value for your $$s.
    Ever Growing Inventory
    Ranging from the smallest feasible / required data (datasheets, data facts, SWOT analysis, company profiles, etc) to full research reports that help you make decisions, our inventory is updated almost on a daily basis with the latest industry reports from domain experts that track more than 5000 niche sectors.
    One Stop Solution
    Need a custom research report on medical devices market? Require all available business intelligence on 3D printing industry? Exploring F&B sector of a particular country/region? RnRMarketResearch.com is your one-stop-solution to all market intelligence needs. We not only offer custom research and consulting services, we also "bundle" reports to meet your needs and help you fetch the data analysis you require for your business.
    Dedicated Client Engagement
    Not limited to only "finding" relevant reports for you, our client engagement team dedicates its efforts to understand your "business need" and accordingly maps available research data to help you move forward. Call "your" client engagement executive any time of your day and get your questions answered in order to make the correct business decision.
    Saving Time and Efforts
    Simply share your research requirement details with us and let us do all the hard work to find required intelligence for you. When you add up our "one stop solution" and "dedicated client engagement" services mentioned above, you obviously know the time and effort saving you do by working with us.
    Payment Flexibility
    Working with Fortune 500 organizations, we understand the importance of being flexible for payments. Share your payment terms with us and we will surely match up to them to ensure you get access to required business intelligence data without having to wait for the payment to be done.
    Post-Purchase Research Support
    Have questions after reading a report / datasheet bought through us? Not sure about the methodology used for data available in the research? Talk to us / Share your questions with us and if required, we will connect you with the analyst(s)/author(s) of the report(s) and ensure you get satisfactory answers for the same. Need more data / analysis / report(s) on the topic of your research/project? The RnRMarketResearch.com team is here for you 24X7 to support you with your post-purchase requirements. Subscription Offers & Packages (Get in touch with us for more details - sales@rnrmarketresearch.com / +1 888 391 5441 )
    • Ad Hoc
    • Pay - as - you - go / Bucket Subscriptions
    • Fixed Cost for #of reports
    • Customize / Personalize as per your needs