Argentina Oil and Gas Report Q1 2013

Publisher Name :
Date: 19-Dec-2012
No. of pages: 94

BMI View: The renationalisation of YPF and subsequent 'aggressive but realistic' strategic investment
plan set out by the company is the new driving force behind Argentina's energy sector. While foreign
interest in the country's shale potential exists, as evidenced by Chevron's recent entrance, we remain
bearish on the sector and its prospects for receiving much-needed foreign investment. We expect
production at existing fields to remain high into 2013, primarily on the back of continued pressure on
YPF to produce since its nationalisation. Further changes to our forecasts, including reserves and
refining capacity, will come when the implementation of the five-year plan begins in earnest.
The main trends and developments we highlight in the Argentine oil and gas sector are:
The fiscal regime needs work if Argentina is to secure adequate long-term investment and harness
the country's apparent potential. Indeed, YPF is looking to raise US$1bn in debt to fund its planned
2013 capital expenditures. In addition to the risks associated with investing in the recently
nationalised company, BMI believes that a sizeable currency devaluation is in store for Argentina
amid a broader weakening of the economy.
An audit carried out by US consultant Ryder Scott to assessed the potential of the Vaca Muerta
formation in Argentina's Neuquén Province to hold estimated prospective resources of 21.2bn barrels
of oil equivalent (boe), contingent resources of 1.5bn boe and booked proven, probable and possible
(3P) reserves of 116mn boe net to YPF. This is a considerable increase on a November 2011
contingent resources estimate of 927mn boe. In one of Repsol's last investor presentations as the
parent of YPF it noted that Argentina has the potential to replicate the shale revolution witnessed in
the US, while the CEO of US independent EOG Resources said that the Vaca Muerta play 'could be
bigger than the 5.7bn bbl Eagle Ford', a formation located in south Texas, US.
YPF's new investment plan envisages US$7bn in capital expenditure (capex) each year to 2017,
focusing on the unconventional plays at Vaca Muerta and marginal fields. The aim is to increase
production to 219.2boe by 2017, a rise of 37% on current production levels. YPF aims to increase the
number of new wells to 50 per year, in comparison to 19 wells per year between 2007 and 2011.
Repsol-YPF had previously estimated that it would invest US$25bn per year to double the country's
current oil and gas production.
Conventional oil volumes will continue to come under pressure, though the plan to increase
production from marginal fields could provide some respite if implemented as envisaged by YPF.
Our current estimates assume oil output falling in 2012, but recovering in 2013/14. By 2017, we
expect Argentina to be pumping an average 744,540 barrels per day (b/d).
Artificially low domestic prices for fuels insulate demand. However, the weakening macroeconomic
environment will take a toll on oil consumption. We now forecast annual average growth in oil
consumption of 2,1% to 2017, reaching 733,239 b/d. The trend of importing more and more refined
fuels while exporting less and less crude oil will continue according to our forecasts, pushing the cost
of imports higher. We forecast the cost of refined fuel imports to be US$3.21bn in 2013by 2012 and
rising to US$6.96bn by 2021. By 2018 we see net oil imports of 13,360b/d and rising thereafter,
ending Argentina's position as a net oil exporter.
Our forecasts suggest that natural gas production will reach 40.5bn cubic metres (bcm) by 2017,
although we are not factoring in any production from shale gas at this stage. The commercialisation
of the Vaca Muerta shale gas resources presents a strong upside risk to our forecast. Under the
current forecast scenario, imports of natural gas are expected to exceed 15bcm by 2017, up from
5.2bcm in 2011.
The cost of oil and gas imports costs will continue to rise steadily over the forecast period, with the
potential to nearly double by 2021 should there be no major progress in exploiting shale resources.
Indeed, gas imports will cost a total of US$4.6bn in 2013, rising to US$10.2bn in 2021. The value of
the country's oil exports will shift from US$304mn in 2013 to an import bill of US$9.6bn in 2021.
At the time of writing we assume an OPEC basket oil price for 2012 of US$107.05/bbl, falling to
US$99.10/bbl in 2013. Global GDP in 2012 is forecast at 3.2%, up from an assumed 3.1% in 2011,
reflecting slowing growth in China and uncertainty with regard to the eurozone debt situation. For 2013,
global GDP growth is estimated at 3.7%.

Argentina Oil and Gas Report Q1 2013

Table: Argentina Proven Oil and Gas Reserves and Total Petroleum Data, 2010-2016
Table: Argentina Proven Oil and Gas Reserves and Total Petroleum Data, 2015-2021
Table: Argentina Oil Production, Consumption and Net Exports, 2010-2016
Table: Argentina Oil Production, Consumption and Net Exports, 2015-2021
Table: Argentina Gas Production, Consumption and Net Exports, 2010-2016
Table: Argentina Gas Production, Consumption and Net Exports, 2015-2021
Table: Argentina Refining - Production and Consumption, 2010-2016
Table: Argentina Refining - Production and Consumption, 2015-2021
Table: Latin American Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Ratings
Table: Upstream Risk/Reward Ratings
Table: Downstream Risk/Reward Ratings
Table: Argentina - Upstream Projects Database
Table: Refineries In Argentina
Table: Key Players - Argentine Oil And Gas Sector
Table: Key Upstream Players
Table: Key Downstream Players
Table: Global Oil Demand Forecasts - A Comparison
Table: Oil Consumption - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2016 ('000b/d)
Table: Oil Consumption - Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021 ('000b/d)
Table: Oil Production - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2016 ('000b/d)
Table: Oil Production - Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021 ('000b/d)
Table: Refining Capacity - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2016 ('000b/d)
Table: Refining Capacity - Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021 ('000b/d)
Table: Gas Consumption - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2016 (bcm)
Table: Gas Consumption - Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021 (bcm)
Table: Gas Production - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2016 (bcm)
Table: Gas Production - Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021 (bcm)
Table: LNG Exports - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2016 (bcm)
Table: LNG Exports - Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021 (bcm)
Table: Glossary Of Terms
Table: BMI's Oil & Gas Business Environment Ratings - Structure
Table: BMI's Oil & Gas Upstream Ratings - Methodology
Table: BMI's Oil & Gas Business Environment Downstream Ratings - Methodology

  • Azerbaijan Oil and Gas Report Q2 2016
    Published: 03-Feb-2016        Price: US 1295 Onwards        Pages: 99
    BMI View: Our outlook on Azeri oil is heavily bearish, with the major ACG fields falling deeper into decline. Investments to stabilise output will help soften the fall; however, with a lack of new discoveries brought online this will be insufficient to reverse the overall trend. In contrast, we remain bullish on the prospects for Azeri gas, underpinned by large-scale new production from Shah Deniz. Prospects on the downstream remain poor, with ageing and low complexity in......
  • Chad Oil and Gas Report Q2 2016
    Published: 03-Feb-2016        Price: US 1295 Onwards        Pages: 58
    BMI View: The ramping up of production from Glencore and China National Petroleum Corporation's new fields will support production increases in 2016 and 2017. Post 2017 there will be a gradual decline in output as a poor project pipeline is unable to offset the falling production rates at the mature Doba field. Despite large proven reserves and pipeline infrastructure in place, BMI believes that the poor business environment and extraction problems that the consortium is ......
  • Japan Oil and Gas Report Q2 2016
    Published: 03-Feb-2016        Price: US 1295 Onwards        Pages: 82
    BMI View: We retain our bearish outlook towards Japan's long-term refined fuels and natural gas demand, which we forecast to fall by 7.1% and 3.5% over 2016-2025. This decrease will be a result of the gradual return of nuclear generation in the power sector, efficiency gains in the automotive and shipping sectors, as well as increasing emphasis on alternative energy sources such as renewables and biofuels. Latest Updates And Key Forecasts: ? Challenges in the domest......
  • Myanmar Oil and Gas Report Q2 2016
    Published: 03-Feb-2016        Price: US 1295 Onwards        Pages: 77
    BMI View: Myanmar's crude oil and natural gas production will remain on a downtrend over 2015-2025, as low oil prices stunt greater realisation of the country's sizeable below-ground potential. Rising domestic demand for fuels will see the country remain a net importer of oil through our forecast period, while longstanding export obligations amid diminishing supplies could see Myanmar struggle to sustain high levels of pipeline gas exports over the long-term. Latest......
  • Tanzania Oil and Gas Report Q2 2016
    Published: 03-Feb-2016        Price: US 1295 Onwards        Pages: 78
    BMI View: The outlook on the Tanzanian gas sector remains broadly positive, with a large recoverable resource base offshore. However, a loosening global LNG market and weak price environment pose rising risks to FID on the major Tanzania LNG project. Continued fiscal and regulatory uncertainties are also a threat and could push first exports beyond our 10-year forecast period. Consumption growth looks strong for both refined fuels and gas, albeit it from a comparatively l......
  • Venezuela Oil and Gas Report Q2 2016
    Published: 03-Feb-2016        Price: US 1295 Onwards        Pages: 114
    BMI View: We maintain our cautious outlook for Venezuela's oil and gas sector despite vast belowground potential and ambitious production plans by state-owned PDVSA. We expect Venezuela to continue to underperform given the large scope of above-ground challenges, including excessive political interference, chronic underinvestment, an unattractive operating environment and the precarious financial situation of PDVSA. Moreover, the sustained fall in global oil prices will d......
  • Philippines Oil and Gas Report Q1 2016
    Published: 27-Jan-2016        Price: US 1295 Onwards        Pages: 102
    BMI View: Stagnant production and rising consumption will ensure that the Philippines remains a net importer of both crude oil and refined fuels over 2015-2024. The start-up of LNG imports in 2016 via the Pagbilao LNG terminal will free domestic gas demand to surpass production, paving the way for greater gas use in several sectors including power, industrial and the residential sectors. The main trends and developments we highlight for the Philippines' oil and gas sector......
  • South Africa Oil and Gas Report Q1 2016
    Published: 27-Jan-2016        Price: US 1295 Onwards        Pages: 87
    BMI View: Despite a vast shale resource base and prospective deepwater acreage, exploration in South Africa will be subdued by the high cost of drilling, continued bureaucratic hold-ups and a sustained lower oil price environment. Ongoing reform of the country's fiscal and licensing regime adds another layer of uncertainty and the passage of the amended petroleum bill will be key to securing future investments. The downstream sector also faces major headwinds, due to agei......
  • East Timor Oil and Gas Report Q1 2016
    Published: 20-Jan-2016        Price: US 1295 Onwards        Pages: 63
    BMI View: Timor-Leste is set to experience declining crude oil and natural gas production over the next decade as its two producing fields remain in decline. Additionally, the small domestic market size makes it uneconomical to build a refinery in the country, which will result in rising refined fuels imports over the coming years. The main trends and developments we highlight in the Timor-Leste oil and gas sector are: ? We maintain our exploration outlook this quar......
  • SERVICES
    Value for Money
    We believe in "optimum utilization of available budget and resources". While servicing our clients' (your) market research requirements, we keep the same approach in focus to help you get the best value for your $$s.
    Ever Growing Inventory
    Ranging from the smallest feasible / required data (datasheets, data facts, SWOT analysis, company profiles, etc) to full research reports that help you make decisions, our inventory is updated almost on a daily basis with the latest industry reports from domain experts that track more than 5000 niche sectors.
    One Stop Solution
    Need a custom research report on medical devices market? Require all available business intelligence on 3D printing industry? Exploring F&B sector of a particular country/region? RnRMarketResearch.com is your one-stop-solution to all market intelligence needs. We not only offer custom research and consulting services, we also "bundle" reports to meet your needs and help you fetch the data analysis you require for your business.
    Dedicated Client Engagement
    Not limited to only "finding" relevant reports for you, our client engagement team dedicates its efforts to understand your "business need" and accordingly maps available research data to help you move forward. Call "your" client engagement executive any time of your day and get your questions answered in order to make the correct business decision.
    Saving Time and Efforts
    Simply share your research requirement details with us and let us do all the hard work to find required intelligence for you. When you add up our "one stop solution" and "dedicated client engagement" services mentioned above, you obviously know the time and effort saving you do by working with us.
    Payment Flexibility
    Working with Fortune 500 organizations, we understand the importance of being flexible for payments. Share your payment terms with us and we will surely match up to them to ensure you get access to required business intelligence data without having to wait for the payment to be done.
    Post-Purchase Research Support
    Have questions after reading a report / datasheet bought through us? Not sure about the methodology used for data available in the research? Talk to us / Share your questions with us and if required, we will connect you with the analyst(s)/author(s) of the report(s) and ensure you get satisfactory answers for the same. Need more data / analysis / report(s) on the topic of your research/project? The RnRMarketResearch.com team is here for you 24X7 to support you with your post-purchase requirements. Subscription Offers & Packages (Get in touch with us for more details - sales@rnrmarketresearch.com / +1 888 391 5441 )
    • Ad Hoc
    • Pay - as - you - go / Bucket Subscriptions
    • Fixed Cost for #of reports
    • Customize / Personalize as per your needs