Argentina Oil and Gas Report Q1 2013

Publisher Name :
Date:19-Dec-2012
No. of pages: 94

BMI View: The renationalisation of YPF and subsequent ‘aggressive but realistic’ strategic investment
plan set out by the company is the new driving force behind Argentina’s energy sector. While foreign
interest in the country’s shale potential exists, as evidenced by Chevron’s recent entrance, we remain
bearish on the sector and its prospects for receiving much-needed foreign investment. We expect
production at existing fields to remain high into 2013, primarily on the back of continued pressure on
YPF to produce since its nationalisation. Further changes to our forecasts, including reserves and
refining capacity, will come when the implementation of the five-year plan begins in earnest.
The main trends and developments we highlight in the Argentine oil and gas sector are:
?? The fiscal regime needs work if Argentina is to secure adequate long-term investment and harness
the country’s apparent potential. Indeed, YPF is looking to raise US$1bn in debt to fund its planned
2013 capital expenditures. In addition to the risks associated with investing in the recently
nationalised company, BMI believes that a sizeable currency devaluation is in store for Argentina
amid a broader weakening of the economy.
?? An audit carried out by US consultant Ryder Scott to assessed the potential of the Vaca Muerta
formation in Argentina’s Neuquén Province to hold estimated prospective resources of 21.2bn barrels
of oil equivalent (boe), contingent resources of 1.5bn boe and booked proven, probable and possible
(3P) reserves of 116mn boe net to YPF. This is a considerable increase on a November 2011
contingent resources estimate of 927mn boe. In one of Repsol’s last investor presentations as the
parent of YPF it noted that Argentina has the potential to replicate the shale revolution witnessed in
the US, while the CEO of US independent EOG Resources said that the Vaca Muerta play ‘could be
bigger than the 5.7bn bbl Eagle Ford’, a formation located in south Texas, US.
?? YPF’s new investment plan envisages US$7bn in capital expenditure (capex) each year to 2017,
focusing on the unconventional plays at Vaca Muerta and marginal fields. The aim is to increase
production to 219.2boe by 2017, a rise of 37% on current production levels. YPF aims to increase the
number of new wells to 50 per year, in comparison to 19 wells per year between 2007 and 2011.
Repsol-YPF had previously estimated that it would invest US$25bn per year to double the country’s
current oil and gas production.
?? Conventional oil volumes will continue to come under pressure, though the plan to increase
production from marginal fields could provide some respite if implemented as envisaged by YPF.
Our current estimates assume oil output falling in 2012, but recovering in 2013/14. By 2017, we
expect Argentina to be pumping an average 744,540 barrels per day (b/d).
?? Artificially low domestic prices for fuels insulate demand. However, the weakening macroeconomic
environment will take a toll on oil consumption. We now forecast annual average growth in oil
consumption of 2,1% to 2017, reaching 733,239 b/d. The trend of importing more and more refined
fuels while exporting less and less crude oil will continue according to our forecasts, pushing the cost
of imports higher. We forecast the cost of refined fuel imports to be US$3.21bn in 2013by 2012 and
rising to US$6.96bn by 2021. By 2018 we see net oil imports of 13,360b/d and rising thereafter,
ending Argentina’s position as a net oil exporter.
?? Our forecasts suggest that natural gas production will reach 40.5bn cubic metres (bcm) by 2017,
although we are not factoring in any production from shale gas at this stage. The commercialisation
of the Vaca Muerta shale gas resources presents a strong upside risk to our forecast. Under the
current forecast scenario, imports of natural gas are expected to exceed 15bcm by 2017, up from
5.2bcm in 2011.
?? The cost of oil and gas imports costs will continue to rise steadily over the forecast period, with the
potential to nearly double by 2021 should there be no major progress in exploiting shale resources.
Indeed, gas imports will cost a total of US$4.6bn in 2013, rising to US$10.2bn in 2021. The value of
the country’s oil exports will shift from US$304mn in 2013 to an import bill of US$9.6bn in 2021.
At the time of writing we assume an OPEC basket oil price for 2012 of US$107.05/bbl, falling to
US$99.10/bbl in 2013. Global GDP in 2012 is forecast at 3.2%, up from an assumed 3.1% in 2011,
reflecting slowing growth in China and uncertainty with regard to the eurozone debt situation. For 2013,
global GDP growth is estimated at 3.7%.

Argentina Oil and Gas Report Q1 2013

Table: Argentina Proven Oil and Gas Reserves and Total Petroleum Data, 2010-2016
Table: Argentina Proven Oil and Gas Reserves and Total Petroleum Data, 2015-2021
Table: Argentina Oil Production, Consumption and Net Exports, 2010-2016
Table: Argentina Oil Production, Consumption and Net Exports, 2015-2021
Table: Argentina Gas Production, Consumption and Net Exports, 2010-2016
Table: Argentina Gas Production, Consumption and Net Exports, 2015-2021
Table: Argentina Refining - Production and Consumption, 2010-2016
Table: Argentina Refining - Production and Consumption, 2015-2021
Table: Latin American Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Ratings
Table: Upstream Risk/Reward Ratings
Table: Downstream Risk/Reward Ratings
Table: Argentina - Upstream Projects Database
Table: Refineries In Argentina
Table: Key Players - Argentine Oil And Gas Sector
Table: Key Upstream Players
Table: Key Downstream Players
Table: Global Oil Demand Forecasts - A Comparison
Table: Oil Consumption - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2016 ('000b/d)
Table: Oil Consumption - Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021 ('000b/d)
Table: Oil Production - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2016 ('000b/d)
Table: Oil Production - Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021 ('000b/d)
Table: Refining Capacity - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2016 ('000b/d)
Table: Refining Capacity - Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021 ('000b/d)
Table: Gas Consumption - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2016 (bcm)
Table: Gas Consumption - Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021 (bcm)
Table: Gas Production - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2016 (bcm)
Table: Gas Production - Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021 (bcm)
Table: LNG Exports - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2016 (bcm)
Table: LNG Exports - Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021 (bcm)
Table: Glossary Of Terms
Table: BMI's Oil & Gas Business Environment Ratings - Structure
Table: BMI's Oil & Gas Upstream Ratings - Methodology
Table: BMI's Oil & Gas Business Environment Downstream Ratings - Methodology

  • Challenges in the Tourism Industry in Thailand
    Thailand has always been a popular tourist destination and tourism provides a major boost to the country’s economy. Bangkok, Hua Hin, Krabi, Samui, Phuket and Cha Am are some of the most attractive tourist destinations in the country. In 2012, Thailand had a very high number of arrivals. Even the number of Thai citizens who [...]
  • Future of the US Consumer Electronics Market
    The market for consumer electronics has been growing steadily. Some of the factors that are contributing to the growth in the market are technological advancement, rise in disposable income and increasing demand for new products. During 2012, consumer electronics market in the US demonstrated positive expansion, although the growth rate slowed down considerably following the [...]
  • Overview of the Global Retail Market
    The global retail industry continued to grow despite the difficult economic conditions in the world. In the fiscal year of 2011, sales-weighted, currency-adjusted revenue rose by 5.1% to $4.271 trillion for the world’s top 250 retailers. According to GRDI (Global Retail Development Index), in 2013 Brazil occupied the top spot in retail development. Chile and [...]
  • Bright Future Predicted for the Tourism Industry in Singapore
    Travel and tourism industry in Singapore has been growing at a steady rate and is considered to be a major contributor to the economic growth of the country. In 2012, Singapore’s IVA (International Visitors Arrivals) reached a record high of 14.5 million, with a growth rate of 10.1% year-on-year. In recent years, inbound travel to [...]
  • Potential of Staffing Market in United States
    The staffing industry places individuals into contract, temporary and permanent positions in firms around the world. Major staffing markets include France, Spain, Italy and Japan as well as many emerging markets. Temporary staffing around the world has been growing, but in US temporary market has been flat since 2006. The majority of staffing revenue majorly [...]
  • Poland Pharmaceutical Industry Growing at 8.3% CAGR to 2020
  • Factors such as the growing elderly population, increasing availability of affordable medicines, and transparent regulatory guidelines will provide the necessary impetus for the growth of the Polish pharmaceutical market, but a decrease in mark-up prices and the country’s stringent drug …

  • Asia-Pacific, Led by China, Drive the Global Methanol Industry
  • China is driving the global methanol industry, with tremendous demand from both its energy and petrochemicals sectors. It accounts for 87.9% of Asia-Pacific’s (APAC) methanol capacity, and 51.9% of the global methanol capacity. Despite a large planned capacity increase in …

  • Diagnostic X-ray Imaging Market worth $4.0 billion by 2020
  • GlobalData estimates that the global diagnostic X-ray imaging market, worth $2.4 billion in 2012, will reach almost $4.0 billion by 2020, increasing at a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 6.7% during the forecast period. Many players are active in …

  • Graft-Versus-Host Disease Market Forecast to 2023
  • Graft-versus-host disease (GVHD) is a common complication of allogeneic hematopoietic stem cell transplantation (HSCT) that occurs when the donated (graft) cells are rejected and attack the host’s cells as foreign. GVHD can progress from mild to severe forms as either …

  • Chronic Lymphocytic Leukemia (CLL) Treatment Market worth $3.3 billion by 2018
  • New Entrants to Boost Chronic Lymphocytic Leukemia Treatment Market Value to $3.3 Billion by 2018, says GlobalData. The introduction of several new drugs will accelerate growth in the Chronic Lymphocytic Leukemia (CLL) treatment market, from $1.4 billion in 2013 to …

  • Variable Frequency Drives Market by Type (AC, DC, Servo), Power Range (Micro, Low, Medium, High), Voltage (Low & Medium), Application (Pump, Fan, Compressor, Conveyor, Elevator, Extruder) and Geography – Global Market Trends & Forecast to 2019
    Published: 20-Aug-2014        Price: US $4650 Onwards        Pages: 326
    This report estimates the variable frequency drive market in terms of volume and value. The volume market is estimated in terms of number of unit shipments and value in terms of revenue ($ million). This has been broken down into component regions and is further split into countries.Variable frequency drives are solid state regulators used in AC or DC electric motor. Increasing consumption of electricity coupled with rising electricity prices over the globe are the key trends driving the mar......
  • Nordics Renewables Report Q4 2014
    Published: 20-Aug-2014        Price: US $1295 Onwards        Pages: 52
    BMI View: We are maintaining our forecasts for non-hydropower renewable energy generation in the Nordics this quarter as key projects in the region continue to progress in line with our expectations. We note that Denmark appears to be losing its energy self-sufficient status, and this is likely to lead to a greater focus on the development of renewables. We are maintaining our 2014 forecasts for non-hydropower renewable energy generation in the Nordics this quarter. This is because key projects ......
  • Poland Oil and Gas Report Q4 2014
    Published: 20-Aug-2014        Price: US $1295 Onwards        Pages: 161
    BMI View: While Poland could see first commercial shale gas production in 2014-2015, we remain cautiously optimistic with regard to the country's shale gas production. Given the need for additional exploration, an investor-friendly tax regime and assuming that projects take three years to be developed, we have factored in significant shale gas production into our forecast from 2018-2019 onwards. We note that risks lie to the downside, depending on the industry reception of the new regulations an......
  • Poland Renewables Report Q4 2014
    Published: 20-Aug-2014        Price: US $1295 Onwards        Pages: 39
    BMI View: Since the Polish government approved the renewable energy sources (RES) law in April 2014, there has been relatively little activity in the Polish renewables sector. This is something we expected as developers are likely to delay investment until the full impact of the new regulatory framework is determined. As such, we have largely maintained our renewables forecasts this quarter as we had already priced in significant regulatory uncertainty. Poland's non-hydro renewables segment has ......
  • Argentina Renewables Report Q4 2014
    Published: 20-Aug-2014        Price: US $1295 Onwards        Pages: 42
    BMI View: Despite an attractive regulatory framework and ambitious government plans for expansion, we maintain a relatively bearish outlook towards the Argentine renewables industry. An unappealing business environment and limited project financing opportunities will continue to limit the sector's growth potential over the forecast period. Argentina's positive regulatory framework for renewables on the surface looks appealing to investors. For example, the country has adopted an ambitious target......
  • Russia Oil and Gas Report Q4 2014
    Published: 20-Aug-2014        Price: US $1295 Onwards        Pages: 241
    BMI View: Russia remains rich in oil and gas potential and we see production upside especially in refined oil and gas ahead, despite the threat of western sanctions against further investment into its oil and gas sector. The biggest obstacle in the way of further growth is the dominance of a few large local and statebacked players in the market, which makes projects vulnerable to these firms' growing financial commitments. The main trends and developments we highlight for Russia's oil and gas se......
  • Tanzania Oil and Gas Report Q4 2014
    Published: 20-Aug-2014        Price: US $1295 Onwards        Pages: 86
    BMI View: Tanzania has substantial potential, with major offshore gas discoveries supporting the development of its nascent oil and gas sector. However, despite the strength of its prospectivity below ground, above-ground factors are beginning to weigh on the outlook. An uncertain regulatory environment threatens to drive away future investment, whereas fears over resource nationalism and heavy tax burdens are already driving major project delays. The main trends and developments we highlight fo......
  • Azerbaijan Oil and Gas Report Q4 2014
    Published: 20-Aug-2014        Price: US $1295 Onwards        Pages: 136
    BMI View: The outlook for Azerbaijan's upstream sector is broadly bullish, with a substantial increase in the country's natural gas production offsetting a longer-term decline in oil output. We are more bearish on the downstream, and do not believe that forecast global refined fuels demand-supply dynamics will support the country's planned refinery upgrade and expansion projects. Key trends we highlight for Azerbaijan's oil and gas sector: ? The country boasts substantial, prospective and undere......
  • Turkmenistan Oil and Gas Report Q4 2014
    Published: 20-Aug-2014        Price: US $1295 Onwards        Pages: 116
    BMI View: Turkmenistan's growing gas reserves have the country's energy profile on a positive trajectory, as reflected by our forecasts for strong growth in gas production over the coming years. Our forecast for gas production to reach 108.8bcm per annum by 2018 implies an average growth rate of 7.4% per annum. The country's rising potential is supporting a significant strengthening of ties with China, with whom it shares the China-Central Asia Pipeline, which is slated to provide approximately ......
  • SERVICES
    Value for Money
    We believe in "optimum utilization of available budget and resources". While servicing our clients' (your) market research requirements, we keep the same approach in focus to help you get the best value for your $$s.
    Ever Growing Inventory
    Ranging from the smallest feasible / required data (datasheets, data facts, SWOT analysis, company profiles, etc) to full research reports that help you make decisions, our inventory is updated almost on a daily basis with the latest industry reports from domain experts that track more than 5000 niche sectors.
    One Stop Solution
    Need a custom research report on medical devices market? Require all available business intelligence on 3D printing industry? Exploring F&B sector of a particular country/region? RnRMarketResearch.com is your one-stop-solution to all market intelligence needs. We not only offer custom research and consulting services, we also "bundle" reports to meet your needs and help you fetch the data analysis you require for your business.
    Dedicated Client Engagement
    Not limited to only "finding" relevant reports for you, our client engagement team dedicates its efforts to understand your "business need" and accordingly maps available research data to help you move forward. Call "your" client engagement executive any time of your day and get your questions answered in order to make the correct business decision.
    Saving Time and Efforts
    Simply share your research requirement details with us and let us do all the hard work to find required intelligence for you. When you add up our "one stop solution" and "dedicated client engagement" services mentioned above, you obviously know the time and effort saving you do by working with us.
    Payment Flexibility
    Working with Fortune 500 organizations, we understand the importance of being flexible for payments. Share your payment terms with us and we will surely match up to them to ensure you get access to required business intelligence data without having to wait for the payment to be done.
    Post-Purchase Research Support
    Have questions after reading a report / datasheet bought through us? Not sure about the methodology used for data available in the research? Talk to us / Share your questions with us and if required, we will connect you with the analyst(s)/author(s) of the report(s) and ensure you get satisfactory answers for the same. Need more data / analysis / report(s) on the topic of your research/project? The RnRMarketResearch.com team is here for you 24X7 to support you with your post-purchase requirements. Subscription Offers & Packages (Get in touch with us for more details - sales@rnrmarketresearch.com / +1 888 391 5441 )
    • Ad Hoc
    • Pay - as - you - go / Bucket Subscriptions
    • Fixed Cost for #of reports
    • Customize / Personalize as per your needs