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As one of the most important grain varieties in the world, wheat reported a yield of 126.21 million tons in 2014 in China, increasing 3.5% year on year.
Wheat can not only make flour or fodder but also be used in food processing, wine making or as a raw material of drugs.
The major consumption of wheat comes from flour processing. As flour consumption grows steadily, the consumption of wheat in flour processing is stable too. With the improvements in living standards, the average consumption of meat, dairy products and egg keeps rising, resulting in the unlikely increase or even a possible decline in average consumption of flour as ration. Therefore, industrial use has become the major booster of wheat consumption.
As wheat can also be used in feed processing, it can replace corn to some extent. For example, the price ratio of wheat to corn was 0.89 in 2011, hitting a record low since 1999 and decreasing about 12% compared with 2011, which drove the substantial growth of 10 million tons in wheat fodder consumption. Since 2012, the ratio has recovered to over 1, accompanied by the obvious decline in feed processing's consumption of wheat.
With population expansion and rising consumption, the demand for wheat keeps going up. However, due to deepening urbanization and low gains of grain growing, the number of people engaged in agriculture continues to decrease, which leads to unlikely rise in grain yield. To encourage the development of grain growing, Chinese government has issued a series of supporting policies including a minimum price at which government purchases parts of the grain when its market price drops. Chinese government announced that the minimum purchase price of wheat in 2015 is CNY 2,360 per ton, the same as that in 2014.
As domestic wheat yield hardly meets market demand, China has begun to import wheat largely in recent years. Wheat import was 3.689 million tons in 2012 with a year-on-year increase of over 100% and 5.50 million in 2013. In the first half of 2014, this figure reached 2.56 million tons due to the poor quality of domestic wheat. Later as domestic high-quality wheat came into the market, the import declined sharply. Hence a sum of only 2.97 million tons in 2014 with a year-on-year decrease of 46%.
Australia replaced the US as China's largest wheat supplier in 2014, exporting 1.4 million tons which accounted for 47% of China's total wheat import. While the US only exported 0.83 million tons, a 29% of the sum.
In 2014, wheat import in China hit a record low since 2012, lagging far behind that in 2012 and 2013. And in 2015, wheat import into China might reach 2.5 - 3 million tons.
By analyzing the development of wheat flour market and wheat industrial chain, operation and development trend of Chinese wheat industry, wheat price, yield, import and export as well as competition in wheat market comprehensively, this report serves as an important reference for investors.
Readers can get at least the following information through this report:
- wheat acreage and yield in China
- Chinese government's policy supporting wheat planting
- wheat import and export in China
- demand for wheat in China
- price tendency of wheat in China
- investment opportunity in related industry of wheat industry in China
The author suggests the following groups of people purchase this report:
- wheat growers
- enterprises providing agricultural means of production
- enterprises engaged in wheat trade
- enterprises engaged in wheat deep processing
- investors/research institutions interested in wheat industry in China
Companies Mentioned
COFCO Limited; Yihai Kerry