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World Lubricants to 2019

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Date: 31-Dec-2015
No. of pages: 469
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World demand to rise 2% annually through 2019

World demand for lubricants is projected to rise two percent yearly through 2019. The fastest gains are expected in the Asia/ Pacific region, where a greater number of motor vehicles in use and continued industrialization in large countries such as China and India will support rising demand for lubricants. Developing regions such as Central and South America and the Africa/Mideast region will also post healthy gains in response to economic growth, rising manufacturing output, and increasing motor vehicle production and ownership rates. More mature markets, such as Western Europe, Japan and the United States, are expected to stay fairly flat through 2019, as a greater availability of premium lubricant products with longer drain intervals will curb growth. Additionally, many of these developed countries enforce strict regulations on the use and disposal of lubricants, which will fuel demand for more environmentally friendly bio-based lubricants, as well as the increased use of lubricants derived from re-refined base oils.

Longer drain intervals to temper growth in engine oils

As motor vehicles continue to account for the majority of lubricant demand, rising motor vehicle ownership rates in developing countries will support increasing demand for engine oils. However, these advances will be tempered by motor vehicle manufacturer efforts to lengthen drain intervals in the motor vehicle aftermarket. Similar trends will also be evident in off-highway and stationary markets where engine manufacturers will demand higher performing lubricants capable of protecting engines in extreme environments, and with longer drain intervals, in order to facilitate reduced maintenance costs for their customers.

Process oils to be fastest growing product category

Process oils are expected to be the fastest growing product category going forward, supported by gains in manufacturing output, particularly in the Asia/Pacific region and other industrializing regions. Additionally, because process oils are often a component of a finished manufactured product, it is difficult to reduce their volume usage even as quality improves due to increasingly stringent performance requirements. Demand for hydraulic fluids, metalworking fluids, and other lubricants will also be positively impacted by improving economic conditions and rising manufacturing output in developing regions, although gains will be more limited than those seen in the process oil category. Bio-based hydraulic and metalworking fluids will exhibit healthy gains as these products can meet environmental and safety regulations.

Other markets to outpace motor vehicle aftermarket

While the motor vehicle aftermarket will remain the largest end use for lubricants, growth will trail the other major markets for lubricants. In the manufacturing market, gains will be in line with the global average as manufacturing output expands, particularly in developing regions. However, quality will continue to improve as manufacturers increasingly demand lubricants that are effective in a wider range of operating conditions. In the remaining markets, lubricant demand is expected to rise at an above-average pace. Growth will be supported by factors such as increasing mechanization in agriculture, construction, mining, and industry in developing regions; increased oil and gas production; and greater use of marine and railroad transport.

Company Profiles

Profiles global industry players such as BP, Chevron, Exxon Mobil, Lukoil, PetroChina, Shell, Sinopec & Total

Additional Information

This study examines the global market for finished lubricants. Products covered include engine oils, process oils, hydraulic fluids, metalworking fluids, and other lubricants. Demand for finished lubricants is discussed in terms of intended markets, including the motor vehicle aftermarket, manufacturing market, and others. World base oil trends, as well as finished lubricant production and trade, are also discussed.It should also be noted that world base oil demand is discussed in terms of the location of finished lubricant end use and not of lubricant production or blending. Additionally, API Group III base oils and lubricants from which they are formulated are classified in this study as synthetic products. This differs from prior versions. Historical data for 2004, 2009, and 2014 and forecasts for 2019 and 2024 are provided for lubricant demand by product type and market for six regions and 23 individual countries. In this study, the term “demand” is used synonymously with “sales” and “consumption.” Tabular details may not add to totals due to independent rounding, and ratios may be rounded for clarity.

World Lubricants to 2019

Table of Contents

Introduction XII

I. Executive Summary 1

II. Market Environment 4
General 4
World Population Outlook 5
Macroeconomic Outlook 7
Recent Historical Trends 8
World Economic Outlook 9
World Manufacturing Outlook 12
World Fixed Investment Overview 15
World Motor Vehicle Outlook 16
World Motor Vehicle Park 17
World Motor Vehicle Production 18
World Hybrid & Electric Vehicle Outlook 20
Motor Vehicle Design Technology 23
Gasoline Engines 23
Diesel Engines 25
Alternative Fuel Technologies 26
World Oil Industry Outlook 28
World Crude Oil & Natural Gas Production 28
World Refined Petroleum Products Production 31
Environmental & Regulatory Trends 33
Lubricant Standards & Testing 35

III. Overview 38
General 38
World Lubricant Demand by Region 39
World Lubricant Demand by Formulation 45
Petroleum Lubricants 47
Nonconventional Lubricants 49
Synthetic Lubricants 51
Re-Refined Lubricants 53
Bio-Based Lubricants 54
World Lubricant Demand by Product 55
Engine Oils 57
Process Oils 60
Hydraulic Fluids 63
Metalworking Fluids 65
Other Lubricants 67
World Lubricant Demand by Market 70
Motor Vehicle Aftermarket 72
Light Vehicles 74
Medium & Heavy Trucks & Buses 76
Manufacturing 78
Other Markets 80
World Base Oil Trends 82
Lubricant Production & Trade 85

IV. North America 87
Economic Overview 87
Products & Markets 89
Market Share 92
United States 93
Canada 102
Mexico 110

V. Western Europe 118
Economic Overview 118
Products & Markets 120
Market Share 123
Germany 124
France 132
Italy 139
United Kingdom 147
Spain 155
Other Western Europe 162
Netherlands 169
Belgium 170
All Other Western Europe 170

VI. Asia/Pacific 171
Economic Overview 171
Products & Markets 173
Market Share 177
China 179
India 188
Japan 197
South Korea 205
Indonesia 212
Thailand 219
Taiwan 226
Australia 232
Other Asia/Pacific 238
Malaysia 244
Philippines 245
All Other Asia/Pacific 245

VII. Other Regions 247
Central & South America 247
Economic Overview 247
Products & Markets 249
Market Share 252
Brazil 253
Other Central & South America 262
Argentina 267
Venezuela 268
All Other Central & South America 269
Eastern Europe 270
Economic Overview 270
Products & Markets 272
Market Share 274
Russia 275
Poland 282
Other Eastern Europe 287
Ukraine 292
All Other Eastern Europe 293
Africa/Mideast 294
Economic Overview 294
Products & Markets 296
Market Share 300
Iran 301
Turkey 307
Egypt 312
Saudi Arabia 318
Other Africa/Mideast 323
South Africa 329
All Other Africa/Mideast 330

VIII. Industry Structure 331
General 331
Industry Composition 332
Lubricant Market Share 335
Competitive Strategies 338
Merger & Acquisition Activity 341
Strategic Partnerships 343
Refining & Blending 351
Marketing & Distribution 353
Company Profiles 355
Anderol Specialty Lubricants, see Chemtura Aral, see BP Ashland Incorporated 356
AVI-OIL India Private, see Indian Oil Batoyle Freedom Group, see FUCHS Petrolub BP plc 360
Burmah Castrol, see BP Castrol, see BP Chemtura Corporation 366
Chevron Corporation 368
Chevron Phillips Chemical Company LLC 375
China National Petroleum Corporation 377
China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation 379
CITGO Petroleum, see Petróleos de Venezuela CPC Corporation 381
CPChem, see Chevron Phillips Chemical Deutsche Pentosin-Werke, see FUCHS Petrolub ENEOS ItalSing Private, see Eni and JX Holdings Engen Petroleum, see Petroliam Nasional Berhad Eni SpA 383
Excel Paralubes, see Phillips 66
Exxon Mobil Corporation 385
FUCHS Petrolub SE 391
Gazprom OAO 397
Hatco, see Chemtura Houghton International Incorporated 399
Hyundai and Shell Base Oil, see Royal Dutch Shell Iberian Lube Base Oil, see Repsol and SK Innovation Idemitsu Kosan Company Limited 401
Imperial Oil, see Exxon Mobil Indian Oil Corporation Limited 404
INTESMO OOO, see Lukoil Oil JX Holdings Incorporated 406
Lukoil Oil Company 409
Malaysian Refining Sdn Bhd, see Petroliam Nasional Berhad Mexicana de Lubricantes, see Petróleos Mexicanos Motiva Enterprises, see Royal Dutch Shell MOTOREX Langenthal, see FUCHS Petrolub Naftna Industrija Srbije ad, see Gazprom OAO NGK Slavneft OAO, see Gazprom OAO and Rosneft Oil OJSC Nynäs, see Petróleos de Venezuela OMV AG 412
OPET-FUCHS Madeni Yag Sanayi ve Ticaret AS, see FUCHS Petrolub PEMEX, see Petróleos Mexicanos Pertamina, see Perusahaan Pertambangan Minyak Dan Gas Bumi Negara Perusahaan Pertambangan Minyak Dan Gas Bumi Negara 414
Petrobras, see Petróleo Brasileiro PetroChina Lubricant, see China National Petroleum Petróleo Brasileiro SA 416
Petróleos de Venezuela SA 418
Petróleos Mexicanos SA 421
Petroliam Nasional Berhad 423
Petromin Corporation 427
PETRONAS, see Petroliam Nasional Berhad Phillips 66 429
PT Patra SK, see Perusahaan Pertambangan Minyak Dan Gas Bumi Negara and SK Innovation Repsol SA 434
Rosneft Oil Company OJSC 436
Royal Dutch Shell plc 437
Ruhr Oel, see BP and Rosneft Oil OJSC Shell Lubricants, see Royal Dutch Shell Sinopec Lubricant, see China Petroleum & Chemical SK Innovation Company Limited 446
Spectrum, see Phillips 66
Suncor Energy Incorporated 448
Total SA 451
Ukrtatnafta PJSC 456
Valvoline, see Ashland Yuchai-PETRONAS Joint Venture, see Petroliam Nasional Berhad Yushiro Chemical Industry Company Limited 457
Other Companies Mentioned in Study 459

List of Tables

Section I -- Executive Summary
Summary Table 3

Section II -- Market Environment
1 World Population by Region 7
2 World Gross Domestic Product by Region 12
3 World Manufacturing Value Added by Region 14
4 World Fixed Capital Investment by Region 16
5 World Motor Vehicle Park by Region 18
6 World Motor Vehicle Production by Region 20
7 World Hybrid & Electric Vehicle Demand by Region 22
8 World Oil & Gas Production by Region & Resource 31
9 Refined Petroleum Products Production 33

Section III -- Overview
1 World Lubricant Demand by Region 42
2 World Lubricant Demand by Formulation 46
3 World Petroleum Lubricant Demand by Region 49
4 World Nonconventional Lubricant Demand by Region 51
5 World Lubricant Demand by Product 56
6 World Engine Oil Demand by Region 60
7 World Process Oil Demand by Region 62
8 World Hydraulic Fluid Demand by Region 64
9 World Metalworking Fluid Demand by Region 67
10 World Other Lubricants Demand by Region 70
11 World Lubricant Demand by Market 71
12 World Motor Vehicle Aftermarket Lubricant Demand 74
13 Light Vehicle Aftermarket Lubricant Demand 76
14 Medium & Heavy Trucks & Buses Aftermarket Lubricant Demand 77
15 World Manufacturing Lubricant Demand 80
16 World Other Markets Lubricant Demand 82
17 World Base Oil Demand 84

Section IV -- North America
1 North America: Key Indicators for Lubricants 88
2 North America: Lubricant Demand 91
3 United States: Key Indicators for Lubricants 95
4 United States: Lubricant Demand by Product & Formulation 98
5 United States: Lubricant Demand by Market 101
6 Canada: Key Indicators for Lubricants 104
7 Canada: Lubricant Demand by Product & Formulation 106
8 Canada: Lubricant Demand by Market 109
9 Mexico: Key Indicators for Lubricants 112
10 Mexico: Lubricant Demand by Product & Formulation 114
11 Mexico: Lubricant Demand by Market 116

Section V -- Western Europe
1 Western Europe: Key Indicators for Lubricants 120
2 Western Europe: Lubricant Demand 122
3 Germany: Key Indicators for Lubricants 126
4 Germany: Lubricant Demand by Product & Formulation 128
5 Germany: Lubricant Demand by Market 131
6 France: Key Indicators for Lubricants 134
7 France: Lubricant Demand by Product & Formulation 136
8 France: Lubricant Demand by Market 138
9 Italy: Key Indicators for Lubricants 141
10 Italy: Lubricant Demand by Product & Formulation 144
11 Italy: Lubricant Demand by Market 146
12 United Kingdom: Key Indicators for Lubricants 149
13 United Kingdom: Lubricant Demand by Product & Formulation 152
14 United Kingdom: Lubricant Demand by Market 154
15 Spain: Key Indicators for Lubricants 157
16 Spain: Lubricant Demand by Product & Formulation 159
17 Spain: Lubricant Demand by Market 161
18 Other Western Europe: Key Indicators for Lubricants 164
19 Other Western Europe: Lubricant Demand 167
20 Other Western Europe: Lubricant Demand by Country 169

Section VI -- Asia/Pacific
1 Asia/Pacific: Key Indicators for Lubricants 173
2 Asia/Pacific: Lubricant Demand 176
3 China: Key Indicators for Lubricants 181
4 China: Lubricant Demand by Product & Formulation 184
5 China: Lubricant Demand by Market 187
6 India: Key Indicators for Lubricants 190
7 India: Lubricant Demand by Product & Formulation 193
8 India: Lubricant Demand by Market 196
9 Japan: Key Indicators for Lubricants 199
10 Japan: Lubricant Demand by Product & Formulation 201
11 Japan: Lubricant Demand by Market 204
12 South Korea: Key Indicators for Lubricants 206
13 South Korea: Lubricant Demand by Product & Formulation 209
14 South Korea: Lubricant Demand by Market 211
15 Indonesia: Key Indicators for Lubricants 214
16 Indonesia: Lubricant Demand by Product & Formulation 216
17 Indonesia: Lubricant Demand by Market 218
18 Thailand: Key Indicators for Lubricants 221
19 Thailand: Lubricant Demand by Product & Formulation 223
20 Thailand: Lubricant Demand by Market 225
21 Taiwan: Key Indicators for Lubricants 228
22 Taiwan: Lubricant Demand by Product & Formulation 229
23 Taiwan: Lubricant Demand by Market 231
24 Australia: Key Indicators for Lubricants 233
25 Australia: Lubricant Demand by Product & Formulation 235
26 Australia: Lubricant Demand by Market 237
27 Other Asia/Pacific: Key Indicators for Lubricants 240
28 Other Asia/Pacific: Lubricant Demand 243
29 Other Asia/Pacific: Lubricant Demand by Country 244

Section VII -- Other Regions
1 Central & South America: Key Indicators for Lubricants 249
2 Central & South America: Lubricant Demand 251
3 Brazil: Key Indicators for Lubricants 256
4 Brazil: Lubricant Demand by Product & Formulation 259
5 Brazil: Lubricant Demand by Market 261
6 Other Central & South America: Key Indicators for Lubricants 263
7 Other Central & South America: Lubricant Demand 266
8 Other Central & South America: Lubricant Demand by Country 267
9 Eastern Europe: Key Indicators for Lubricants 271
10 Eastern Europe: Lubricant Demand 273
11 Russia: Key Indicators for Lubricants 277
12 Russia: Lubricant Demand by Product & Formulation 279
13 Russia: Lubricant Demand by Market 281
14 Poland: Key Indicators for Lubricants 283
15 Poland: Lubricant Demand by Product & Formulation 285
16 Poland: Lubricant Demand by Market 286
17 Other Eastern Europe: Key Indicators for Lubricants 289
18 Other Eastern Europe: Lubricant Demand 291
19 Other Eastern Europe: Lubricant Demand by Country 292
20 Africa/Mideast: Key Indicators for Lubricants 296
21 Africa/Mideast: Lubricant Demand 299
22 Iran: Key Indicators for Lubricants 303
23 Iran: Lubricant Demand by Product & Formulation 304
24 Iran: Lubricant Demand by Market 306
25 Turkey: Key Indicators for Lubricants 308
26 Turkey: Lubricant Demand by Product & Formulation 310
27 Turkey: Lubricant Demand by Market 312
28 Egypt: Key Indicators for Lubricants 315
29 Egypt: Lubricant Demand by Product & Formulation 316
30 Egypt: Lubricant Demand by Market 318
31 Saudi Arabia: Key Indicators for Lubricants 320
32 Saudi Arabia: Lubricant Demand by Product & Formulation 321
33 Saudi Arabia: Lubricant Demand by Market 323
34 Other Africa/Mideast: Key Indicators for Lubricants 325
35 Other Africa/Mideast: Lubricant Demand 328
36 Other Africa/Mideast: Lubricant Demand by Country 329

Section VIII -- Industry Structure
1 World Lubricant Sales by Company, 2014 333
2 Selected Acquisitions & Divestitures 342
3 Selected Cooperative Agreements 346

List of Charts

Section III -- Overview
1 World Lubricant Demand by Region, 2004-2024 43
2 Lubricant Demand per Capita/GDP per Capita Relationship, 2014 44
3 World Lubricant Demand by Product, 2014 57
4 World Lubricant Demand by Market, 2014 72
5 World Share of Base Oil Demand by Type, 2004-2024 85

Section IV -- North America
1 North America: Lubricant Demand by Country, 2014 92
2 North America: Lubricant Market Share by Company, 2014 93

Section V -- Western Europe
1 Western Europe: Lubricant Demand by Country, 2014 123
2 Western Europe: Lubricant Market Share by Company, 2014 124

Section VI -- Asia/Pacific
1 Asia/Pacific: Lubricant Demand by Country, 2014 177
2 Asia/Pacific: Lubricant Market Share by Company, 2014 178

Section VII -- Other Regions
1 Central & South America: Lubricant Demand by Country, 2014 252
2 Central & South America: Lubricant Market Share by Company, 2014 253
3 Eastern Europe: Lubricant Demand by Country, 2014 274
4 Eastern Europe: Lubricant Market Share by Company, 2014 275
5 Africa/Mideast: Lubricant Demand by Country, 2014 300
6 Africa/Mideast: Lubricant Market Share by Company, 2014 301

Section VIII -- Industry Structure
1 World Lubricant Market Share by Company, 2014 335

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