The Western Europe telecoms market: trends and forecasts (8 countries) 2015 - 2020

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Date: 11-Aug-2015
No. of pages: 49
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"Traditional telecoms revenue streams will continue to suffer heavy losses, outweighing growth in mobile and fixed data and TV markets."

Mobile operators must continue to encourage the enrichment of their customer bases, by managing the migration of customers from prepaid to contract plans and from basic phones to smartphones. This strategy will reduce churn and open up opportunities to encourage the take-up of data-centric plans.

This report provides:


  • a 5-year forecast of more than 100 mobile and fixed KPIs for the region as a whole and for 8 countries

  • well-documented forecast assumptions for each type of mobile and fixed service, and for key countries

  • an overview of operator strategies and country-specific topics, in order to highlight similarities and differences between countries

  • a summary of results, key implications and recommendations for mobile and fixed operators

  • an analysis of the trends, drivers and an explanation of the significant changes to our previous forecasts for the region.


Coverage

Geographical coverage

Region modelled


  • Western Europe


Countries modelled individually


  • France

  • Germany

  • Italy

  • Netherlands

  • Portugal

  • Spain

  • Sweden

  • UK


Major KPIs

Connections

Mobile


  • Handset, mobile broadband, M2M

  • Prepaid, contract

  • 2G, 3G, 4G

  • Smartphone,

  • non-smartphone


Fixed


  • Voice, broadband, IPTV, dial-up

  • Narrowband voice, VoBB

  • DSL, FTTH/B, cable


Fixed and mobile voice traffic


  • Outgoing minutes, MoU


Revenue

Mobile


  • Service, retail

  • Prepaid, contract

  • Handset, mobile broadband, M2M

  • Handset voice, messaging, data


Fixed


  • Service, retail

  • Voice, broadband, IPTV, dial-up, BNS

  • DSL, FTTH/B, cable


Mobile ARPU


  • SIMs, handset

  • Prepaid, contract

  • Handset voice

The Western Europe telecoms market: trends and forecasts (8 countries) 2015 - 2020

Table of Contents

8.Executive summary
9.The Western European telecoms market will decline from EUR252 billion in 2014 to EUR231 billion in 2020
10.Traditional telecoms revenue streams will suffer further heavy losses, outweighing growth in the mobile and fixed data markets
11.Fixed and mobile revenue will decline in most countries and regulatory interventions will reduce the revenue boost brought by consolidation
12.Key trends, drivers and assumptions for the mobile and fixed markets
13.Key implications and recommendations for telecoms operators
14.Regional forecasts and cross-country comparison
15.Geographical coverage: Next-generation services will dominate the mobile and fixed broadband markets of Western Europe by 2020
16.Market context: The Western European telecoms market accounts for an average of 1.9% of GDP, with monthly retail spend of EUR42.7 per capita
17.Revenue and ARPU: Telecoms revenue will continue to decline slowly, driven by market maturity and declining ARPU
18.Mobile penetration: Total penetration will not grow in most countries, but significant numbers of users will migrate from prepaid to contract plans
19.Mobile connections: LTE will rapidly become the dominant mobile technology, boosted by the launch of VoLTE services
20.Smartphones and LTE: Smartphones will become the default handset type, with penetration exceeding 100% of population
21.Mobile ARPU: Declining prices and competition from OTT services will cause ARPU to continue to fall during the forecast period
22.Fixed services: The technology mix is evolving rapidly as customers look for faster broadband and operators seek to cut costs
23.Fixed broadband: Growth is a common factor, but varies by country according to the prevailing market characteristics
24.Key drivers at a glance for each Western European market
25.Individual country forecasts
26.France: Market consolidation should bring stability to telecoms revenue
27.France – mobile: More smartphones and LTE in the customer base will offset the impact of converged bundles on ARPU
28.France – fixed: Bundled offers are a key strategy for reducing churn, but broadband ARPU will decline as a result
29.Germany: Total telecoms service revenue will continue to decrease, driven by a decline in mobile and fixed voice revenue
30.Germany – mobile: Quadruple-play offers will put pressure on handset ARPU, and drive users from prepaid to contract deals
31.Germany – fixed: Bundling will reduce broadband ARPU, but the decline will be limited by operators competing on network quality
32.Italy: Telecoms service revenue will continue to decline albeit at a slower rate than previously
33.Italy – mobile: LTE gained strength in 1Q 2015 and the potential merger of 3 Italia and Wind may ease price competition
34.Italy – fixed: Pay-TV content agreements and NGA may make the broadband market more dynamic, but penetration will lag behind
35.Spain: Telecoms revenue will decline more slowly than in the past as in-market consolidation, LTE and fibre will ease ARPU pressure
36.Spain – mobile: ARPU will be more resilient as LTE gains momentum and fixed–mobile bundles may reduce churn
37.Spain – fixed: In-market consolidation, fibre deployment and fixed–mobile bundles will make the fixed market very dynamic
38.Sweden: Despite a strong performance in 2014, total revenue will decline slowly from 2015 as new service growth slows
39.Sweden – mobile: ARPU grew in 2014 because many customers upgraded to contract plans, but this effect will decline from 2015
40.Sweden – fixed: FTTH/B will account for more than half of fixed broadband households, but ASPU will continue to be eroded
41.UK: Total revenue will continue to decline slowly because growth from new services will be undermined by bundling discounts
42.UK – mobile: The pending mergers of BT and EE, and Three and O2, will alter the competitive landscape significantly
43.UK – fixed: Investments in NGA infrastructure will drive take-up of fixed broadband, but bundling will put pressure on ASPU
44.About the authors and Analysys Mason
45.About the authors
46.About Analysys Mason
47.Research from Analysys Mason
48.Consulting from Analysys Mason

List of Figures

Figure 1: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), Western Europe, 2010–2020
Figure 2: Telecoms retail revenue growth by service type, Western Europe, 2014–2020
Figure 3: Telecoms retail revenue growth by type (2014–2020) and market size by total retail revenue (2020), by country, Western Europe
Figure 4: Summary of key trends, drivers and assumptions for Western Europe
Figure 5: Mobile connections by technology generation and fixed broadband household penetration, by country, Western Europe, 2020
Figure 6: Metrics for eight of the countries modelled individually in Western Europe, 2014
Figure 7: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, fixed voice and fixed broadband ASPU, and mobile ARPU, Western Europe, 2010–2020
Figure 8: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and growth rates, Western Europe, 2014–2020
Figure 9: Connections by type, and growth rates, Western Europe, 2014–2020
Figure 10: Active mobile SIM penetration by country (excluding M2M), Western Europe, 2010–2020
Figure 11: Mobile connections by technology generation (excluding M2M), and 3G and 4G’s share of connections, Western Europe, 2010–2020
Figure 12: Smartphones as a percentage of handsets, and LTE’s share of total connections (excluding M2M), Western Europe, 2014 and 2020
Figure 13: Mobile ARPU by country, Western Europe, 2010–2020
Figure 14: Fixed broadband connections by type, and fixed voice, IPTV and mobile broadband connections, Western Europe, 2010–2020
Figure 15: Fixed broadband penetration of households by country, Western Europe, 2010–2020
Figure 16: Major forecast drivers and impact, by country, Western Europe, 2015–2020
Figure 17: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), France, 2010–2020
Figure 18: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and growth rates, France, 2014–2020
Figure 19: Connections by type, and growth rates, France, 2014–2020
Figure 20: Mobile, smartphone and 4G penetration rates, France, 2010–2020
Figure 21: Mobile ARPU by type, and mobile ARPU, France, 2010–2020
Figure 22: Summary of key mobile market drivers and assumptions, France
Figure 23: Fixed penetration rates by service type, France, 2010–2020
Figure 24: Fixed ASPU by service type, France, 2010–2020
Figure 25: Summary of key fixed market drivers and assumptions, France
Figure 26: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), Germany, 2010–2020
Figure 27: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and growth rates, Germany, 2014–2020
Figure 28: Connections by type, and growth rates, Germany, 2014–2020
Figure 29: Mobile, smartphone and 4G penetration rates, Germany, 2010–2020
Figure 30: Mobile ARPU by type, and mobile ARPU, Germany, 2010–2020
Figure 31: Summary of key mobile market drivers and assumptions, Germany
Figure 32: Fixed penetration rates by service type, Germany, 2010–2020
Figure 33: Fixed ASPU by service type, Germany, 2010–2020
Figure 34: Summary of key fixed market drivers and assumptions, Germany
Figure 35: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), Italy, 2010–2020
Figure 36: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and growth rates, Italy, 2014–2020
Figure 37: Connections by type, and growth rates, Italy, 2014–2020
Figure 38: Mobile, smartphone and 4G penetration rates, Italy, 2010–2020
Figure 39: Mobile ARPU by type, and mobile ARPU, Italy, 2010–2020
Figure 40: Summary of key mobile market drivers and assumptions, Italy
Figure 41: Fixed penetration rates by service type, Italy, 2010–2020
Figure 42: Fixed ASPU by service type, Italy, 2010–2020
Figure 43: Summary of key fixed market drivers and assumptions, Italy
Figure 44: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), Spain, 2010–2020
Figure 45: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and growth rates, Spain, 2014–2020
Figure 46: Connections by type, and growth rates, Spain, 2014–2020
Figure 47: Mobile, smartphone and 4G penetration rates, Spain, 2010–2020
Figure 48: Mobile ARPU by type, and mobile ARPU, Spain, 2010–2020
Figure 49: Summary of key mobile market drivers and assumptions, Spain
Figure 50: Fixed penetration rates by service type, Spain, 2010–2020
Figure 51: Fixed ASPU by service type, Spain, 2010–2020
Figure 52: Summary of key fixed market drivers and assumptions, Spain
Figure 53: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), Sweden, 2010–2020
Figure 54: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and growth rates, Sweden, 2014–2020
Figure 55: Connections by type, and growth rates, Sweden, 2014–2020
Figure 56: Mobile, smartphone and 4G penetration rates, Sweden, 2010–2020
Figure 57: Mobile ARPU by type, and mobile ARPU, Sweden, 2010–2020
Figure 58: Summary of key mobile market drivers and assumptions, Sweden
Figure 59: Fixed penetration rates by service type, Sweden, 2010–2020
Figure 60: Fixed ASPU by service type, Sweden, 2010–2020
Figure 61: Summary of key fixed market drivers and assumptions, Sweden
Figure 62: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), UK, 2010–2020
Figure 63: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and growth rates, UK, 2014–2020
Figure 64: Connections by type, and growth rates, UK, 2014–2020
Figure 65: Mobile, smartphone and 4G penetration rates, UK, 2010–2020
Figure 66: Mobile ARPU by type, and mobile ARPU, UK, 2010–2020
Figure 67: Summary of key mobile market drivers and assumptions, UK
Figure 68: Fixed penetration rates by service type, UK, 2010–2020
Figure 69: Fixed ASPU by service type, UK, 2010–2020
Figure 70: Summary of key fixed market drivers and assumptions, UK

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