The Western Europe telecoms market: trends and forecasts 2019–2024
Table of contents
8.Executive summary and recommendations
The total telecoms service revenue in Western Europe will grow marginally; revenue will only grow significantly in the fixed broadband market
Overall, the telecoms retail revenue in Western Europe will increase at a moderate rate, but there will be significant differences between countries
Geographical coverage: the NGA share of connections will only remain low in a few countries during the forecast period
Key trends, drivers and assumptions for the mobile and fixed markets
Key recommendations for telecoms operators
Regional forecasts and cross-country comparison
Market context: the mobile market in WE is saturated, but there is potential for fixed broadband household penetration growth in many countries
Key mergers, acquisitions and market entries
Key drivers at a glance for each Western Europe market
Market overview: the total revenue will remain flat due to declining revenue from legacy services and intense competition in the mobile markets in most countries
Mobile: blended ARPU will increase marginally, thanks to growing data usage and customers’ migration to contract plans
Mobile: mobile penetration in WE will remain high, but it will decrease in most countries during the forecast period
Mobile: the evolution of ARPU will differ significantly between countries due to different market conditions and competitive landscapes
Mobile: mobile service revenue will increase modestly over the forecast period; the launch of 5G services is expected to have a limited impact on revenue growth
23.Fixed: the share of FTTP/B connections will increase significantly in WE, sustained by operators’ aggressive roll-out targets in several countries
Fixed: fixed broadband household penetration will continue to grow in all countries
Fixed: consumer demand for high-speed broadband will drive ASPU growth in a few countries, but the ASPU trend for the region as a whole will remain flat
Fixed: the total fixed broadband revenue in WE will continue to increase, sustained by a stable ASPU and a growing number of FBB connections
Specialist business services: other business services revenue will continue to grow as enterprises migrate further towards cloud-based business solutions
IoT: the largest share of revenue will come from the automotive sector; 5G has the potential to generate new sources of revenue, but not in the short-term
Pay TV: retail revenue from pay-TV services will grow at a moderate rate, driven by the growing popularity of OTT services
Individual country forecasts
France: aggressive price competition in the French fixed market will lead to a decline in the total telecoms revenue during the forecast period
France: government initiatives are driving technological developments in both the fixed and mobile segments
France: investments in 5G and fibre will lead to a considerable increase in the take-up for both technologies, but will have a limited impact on revenue
France: forecast changes
Germany: the total telecoms service revenue will increase during the forecast period, mainly due to revenue growth in the mobile segment
36.Germany: FTTC-based VDSL will be the most-widespread technology in the fixed broadband market by 2024
Germany: Vodafone is emerging as Deutsche Telekom’s leading challenger after its purchase of Liberty Global’s cable network
Germany: forecast changes
Italy: intense competition will result in declining mobile revenue, whereas an increasing number of FBB connections will lead to growing fixed revenue
Italy: the take-up of 5G services will accelerate from 2020 onwards once 5G coverage becomes nationwide
Italy: competition in the mobile market is expected to remain high; a growing take-up of fibre-based network services will boost FBB penetration
Italy: forecast changes
Spain: telecoms revenue will enjoy modest growth across all segments
Spain: mobile ARPU will be affected by stiff price competition; fixed broadband ASPU will prove to be more resilient
Spain: saturation among middle-income and premium customers will continue to drive a shift in strategy among operators
Spain: forecast changes
UK: 5G launches and FTTP roll-outs will create a limited number of opportunities for revenue growth
UK: all four MNOs have launched 5G services; the 5G share of connections will exceed 50% by 2023
UK: the telecoms market in the UK is in a phase of technological transition, and operators are racing to roll out FTTP and 5G mobile services
UK: forecast changes
51.Methodology
Our forecast model is supported by sound market knowledge
Examples of forecast input drivers
Key drivers at a glance table: methodology [1]
Key drivers at a glance table: methodology [2]
About the authors and Analysys Mason
About the authors
About the authors
Analysys Mason’s consulting and research are uniquely positioned
Research from Analysys Mason
Consulting from Analysys Mason
List of Figures
Figure 1: Telecoms and pay-TV retail revenue by type and total service revenue, Western Europe, 2014–2024
Figure 2: Growth in telecoms retail revenue and nominal GDP by country, Western Europe, 2018–2024
Figure 3: 4G/5G share of mobile connections and NGA share of fixed broadband connections by country, Western Europe, 2018 and 2024
Figure 4: Summary of key trends, drivers and assumptions for Western Europe
Figure 5: Metrics for the 16 countries modelled individually in Western Europe, 2018
Figure 6: Recent and upcoming market structure changes in Western Europe
Figure 7: Major forecast drivers: current situation (2018) and future trajectory (2019–2024), by country, Western Europe
Figure 8: Total fixed and mobile telecoms service revenue, Western Europe (EUR billion), 2014–2024
Figure 9: Mobile connections by type, Western Europe (million), 2014–2024
Figure 10: Telecoms retail revenue and growth rate by service type, Western Europe, 2014–2024
Figure 11: Fixed connections by type, Western Europe (million), 2014–2024
Figure 12: Mobile connections by generation, Western Europe (million), 2014–2024
Figure 13: Mobile ARPU by type, Western Europe (EUR per month), 2014–2024
Figure 14: Contract share of mobile connections (excluding IoT), Western Europe, 2014–2024
Figure 15: Mobile data traffic per connection, Western Europe (GB per month), 2014–2024
Figure 16a: Mobile penetration by country, Western Europe, 2014–2024
Figure 16b: Mobile penetration by country, Western Europe, 2014–2024
Figure 17a: Mobile ARPU by country, Western Europe, 2014–2024
Figure 17b: Mobile ARPU by country, Western Europe, 2014–2024
Figure 18: Broadband connections by technology, Western Europe (million), 2014–2024
Figure 19: Fixed retail revenue by service, Western Europe (EUR billion), 2014–2024
Figure 20: NGA broadband household penetration and NGA share of broadband connections, Western Europe, 2014–2024
Figure 21: Fixed internet traffic per broadband connection, Western Europe (GB per month), 2014–2024
Figure 22a: Fixed broadband household penetration by country, Western Europe, 2014–2024
Figure 22b: Fixed broadband household penetration by country, Western Europe, 2014–2024
Figure 23a: Fixed broadband access ASPU by country, Western Europe, 2014–2024
Figure 23b: Fixed broadband access ASPU by country, Western Europe, 2014–2024
Figure 24: Total market revenue from specialist business services, Western Europe, 2014–2024
Figure 25: Total IoT value chain revenue by sector, Western Europe, 2014–2024
Figure 26: Retail revenue from pay TV, Western Europe, 2014–2024
Figure 27: Total fixed and mobile telecoms service revenue, France (EUR billion), 2014–2024
Figure 28: Mobile connections by type, France (million), 2014–2024
Figure 29: Telecoms retail revenue and growth rate by service type, France, 2014–2024
Figure 30: Fixed connections by type, France (million), 2014–2024
Figure 31: 4G, 5G and contract share of mobile connections, France, 2014–2024
Figure 32: Mobile ARPU; fixed voice, broadband and pay-TV ASPU, France (EUR per month), 2014–2024
Figure 33: Mobile data traffic per connection, France (GB per month), 2014–2024
Figure 34: Broadband connections by technology, France (million), 2014–2024
Figure 35: Total telecoms service revenue – current and previous forecasts, France, 2014–2024
Figure 36: Total fixed and mobile telecoms service revenue, Germany (EUR billion), 2014–2024
Figure 37: Mobile connections by type, Germany (million), 2014–2024
Figure 38: Telecoms retail revenue and growth rate by service type, Germany, 2014–2024
Figure 39: Fixed connections by type, Germany (million), 2014–2024
Figure 40: 4G, 5G and contract share of mobile connections, Germany, 2014–2024
Figure 41: Mobile ARPU; fixed voice, broadband and pay-TV ASPU, Germany (EUR per month), 2014–2024
Figure 42: Mobile data traffic per connection, Germany (GB per month), 2014–2024
Figure 43: Broadband connections by technology, Germany (million), 2014–2024
Figure 44: Total telecoms service revenue – current and previous forecasts, Germany, 2014–2024
Figure 45: Total fixed and mobile telecoms service revenue, Italy (EUR billion), 2014–2024
Figure 46: Mobile connections by type, Italy (million), 2014–2024
Figure 47: Telecoms retail revenue and growth rate by service type, Italy, 2014–2024
Figure 48: Fixed connections by type, Italy (million), 2014–2024
Figure 49: 4G, 5G and contract share of mobile connections, Italy, 2014–2024
Figure 50: Mobile ARPU; fixed voice, broadband and pay-TV ASPU, Italy (EUR per month), 2014–2024
Figure 51: Mobile data traffic per connection, Italy (GB per month), 2014–2024
Figure 52: Broadband connections by technology, Italy (million), 2014–2024
Figure 53: Total telecoms service revenue – current and previous forecasts, Italy, 2014–2024
Figure 54: Total fixed and mobile telecoms service revenue, Spain (EUR billion), 2014–2024
Figure 55: Mobile connections by type, Spain (million), 2014–2024
Figure 56: Telecoms retail revenue and growth rate by service type, Spain, 2014–2024
Figure 57: Fixed connections by type, Spain (million), 2014–2024
Figure 58: 4G, 5G and contract share of mobile connections, Spain, 2014–2024
Figure 59: Mobile ARPU; fixed voice, broadband and pay-TV ASPU, Spain (EUR per month), 2014–2024
Figure 60: Mobile data traffic per connection, Spain (GB per month), 2014–2024
Figure 61: Broadband connections by technology, Spain (million), 2014–2024
Figure 62: Total telecoms service revenue – current and previous forecasts, Spain, 2014–2024
Figure 63: Total fixed and mobile telecoms service revenue, UK (GBP billion), 2014–2024
Figure 64: Mobile connections by type, UK (million), 2014–2024
Figure 65: Telecoms retail revenue and growth rate by service type, UK, 2014–2024
Figure 66: Fixed connections by type, UK (million), 2014–2024
Figure 67: 4G, 5G and contract share of mobile connections, UK, 2014–2024
Figure 68: Mobile ARPU; fixed voice, broadband and pay-TV ASPU, UK (GBP per month), 2014–2024
Figure 69: Mobile data traffic per connection, UK (GB per month), 2014–2024
Figure 70: Broadband connections by technology, UK (million), 2014–2024
Figure 71: Total telecoms service revenue – current and previous forecasts, UK, 2014–2024
Figure 72a: Methodology for attributing scores to each element in the key drivers table (current and future) and impact of high scores
Figure 72b: Methodology for attributing scores to each element in the key drivers table (current and future) and impact of high scores
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