The Sub-Saharan Africa telecoms market: trends and forecasts 2019-2024

The Sub-Saharan Africa telecoms market: trends and forecasts 2019-2024

Table of Contents

8.Executive summary and recommendations
Sub-Saharan Africa is a highly mobile-centric region with a strong potential for fixed broadband revenue growth
SSA has an emerging telecoms market that will benefit from gradually increasing political and economic stability
Geographical coverage: the adoption of next-generation access (NGA) fixed broadband will increase the most in Ghana, Nigeria and South Africa
Key trends, drivers and assumptions for the mobile and fixed markets
Key recommendations for telecoms operators
Regional forecasts and cross-country comparison
Market context: the low-income nature of the region has led to a low telecoms services spend in all countries except South Africa
Key mergers, acquisitions and market entries
Key drivers at a glance for each Sub-Saharan Africa market
Market overview: mobile revenue will continue to be the dominant contributor to total telecoms revenue, but fixed broadband revenue will also grow strongly
Mobile: the prepaid share of mobile connections will remain above 95%; this will play a role in keeping the ARPU low
Mobile: mobile penetration will increase across the region as increasing network coverage is balanced by the decreasing need for multiple SIMs
Mobile: consumer spending on data services and the migration to 3G/4G services will ensure a slower ARPU decline in some countries and increase ARPU in others
Mobile: SSA will remain a developing region in terms of mobile technology take-up because 3G will become the dominant form of mobile access
23.Fixed: fixed-wireless will remain the dominant form of access because operator investment in fixed infrastructure will be confined to wealthy metropolitan areas
Fixed: broadband household penetration will remain low in most countries due to a lack of affordability and coverage
Fixed: ASPU will remain largely stable on a regional level because increased NGA penetration will be offset by the natural decline in access prices
Fixed: the take-up of fixed-wireless access and fibre services will lead to fixed broadband penetration growth in the region
Specialist business services: the majority of business services revenue in SSA will be generated in Nigeria and South Africa
IoT: the number of cellular M2M connections will grow significantly, but M2M will remain a niche segment
Pay TV: total revenue growth will be driven by the increased take-up of DTH and pay-DTT services
Individual country forecasts
Ghana: mobile handset revenue growth will slow down during the forecast period; basic phones will continue to dominate the market
Ghana: revenue growth in the fixed market will be driven by increased demand for fibre, but the total number of fixed connections will remain low
Ghana: the growing demand for data and fibre will boost revenue, but there is still potential for moderate growth in the number of mobile connections
Ghana: forecast changes
Kenya: fixed broadband service adoption will benefit from continued operator investment
36.Kenya: the continued adoption of 4G and the introduction of 5G will drive mobile traffic; fibre will consolidate its dominance in the FBB market
Kenya: there is potential for mobile market revenue growth thanks to increased network coverage and smartphone affordability
Kenya: forecast changes
Nigeria: the mobile market will grow (both in terms of the number of connections and revenue), despite uncertain economic conditions
Nigeria: increasing smartphone affordability and operators’ LTE network expansions will sustain the take-up of 4G services
Nigeria: mobile data revenue will form a growing share of the total revenue, and the penetration of fixed broadband services will remain very low
Nigeria: forecast changes
South Africa: the relatively high disposable income of the population will support the growth in the demand for telecoms services
South Africa: the number of prepaid connections will grow, so the contract share of mobile connections will remain stable despite net growth
South Africa: the number of 4G connections will grow in the near future, but 5G will be the technology of choice for high-end consumers by 2024
South Africa: forecast changes
Tanzania: mobile service revenue will keep growing during the forecast period despite intense competition in the market
Tanzania: price competition in the mobile market will drive ARPU down; fixed-wireless will be the most-widespread broadband technology in 2024
Tanzania: there is potential for growth in the mobile market; penetration of fixed services will remain limited
Tanzania: forecast changes
51.Uganda: mobile service revenue growth will be modest despite the low level of mobile penetration
Uganda: the number of 4G connections will grow to be nearly a quarter of all mobile connections in 2024 due to the demand for fast data services
Uganda: there is potential for organic mobile revenue growth, but poverty and a large rural population will make it difficult to realise the potential
Uganda: forecast changes
Methodology
Our forecast model is supported by sound market knowledge
Examples of forecast input drivers
Key drivers at a glance table: methodology [1]
Key drivers at a glance table: methodology [2]
About the authors and Analysys Mason
About the authors
Analysys Mason’s consulting and research are uniquely positioned
Research from Analysys Mason
Consulting from Analysys Mason

List of Figures:

Figure 1: Telecoms and pay-TV retail revenue by type and total service revenue, Sub-Saharan Africa, 2014–2024
Figure 2: Growth in telecoms retail revenue and nominal GDP by country, Sub-Saharan Africa, 2018–2024
Figure 3: 4G/5G share of mobile connections and NGA share of fixed broadband connections by country, Sub-Saharan Africa, 2018 and 20241
Figure 4: Summary of key trends, drivers and assumptions for Sub-Saharan Africa
Figure 5: Metrics for the 11 countries modelled individually in Sub-Saharan Africa, 2018
Figure 6: Recent and upcoming market structure changes in Sub-Saharan Africa
Figure 7: Major forecast drivers: current situation (2018) and future trajectory (2019–2024), by country, Sub-Saharan Africa
Figure 8: Total fixed and mobile telecoms service revenue, Sub-Saharan Africa (USD billion), 2014–2024
Figure 9: Mobile connections by type, Sub-Saharan Africa (million), 2014–2024
Figure 10: Telecoms retail revenue and growth rate by service type, Sub-Saharan Africa, 2014–2024
Figure 11: Fixed connections by type, Sub-Saharan Africa (million), 2014–2024
Figure 12: Mobile connections by generation, Sub-Saharan Africa (million), 2014–2024
Figure 13: Mobile ARPU by type, Sub-Saharan Africa (USD per month), 2014–2024
Figure 14: Contract share of mobile connections (excluding IoT), Sub-Saharan Africa, 2014–2024
Figure 15: Mobile data traffic per connection, Sub-Saharan Africa (MB per month), 2014–2024
Figure 16a: Mobile penetration by country, Sub-Saharan Africa, 2014–2024
Figure 16b: Mobile penetration by country, Sub-Saharan Africa, 2014–2024
Figure 17a: Mobile ARPU by country, Sub-Saharan Africa, 2014–2024
Figure 17b: Mobile ARPU by country, Sub-Saharan Africa, 2014–2024
Figure 18: Broadband connections by technology, Sub-Saharan Africa (million), 2014–2024
Figure 19: Fixed retail revenue by service, Sub-Saharan Africa (USD billion), 2014–2024
Figure 20: NGA broadband household penetration and NGA share of broadband connections, Sub-Saharan Africa, 2014–2024
Figure 21: Fixed Internet traffic per broadband connection, Sub-Saharan Africa (GB per month), 2014–2024
Figure 22a: Fixed broadband household penetration by country, Sub-Saharan Africa, 2014–2024
Figure 22b: Fixed broadband household penetration by country, Sub-Saharan Africa, 2014–2024
Figure 23a: Fixed broadband access ASPU by country, Sub-Saharan Africa, 2014–2024
Figure 23b: Fixed broadband access ASPU by country, Sub-Saharan Africa, 2014–2024
Figure 24: Total market revenue from specialist business services, Sub-Saharan Africa, 2014–2024
Figure 25: Total IoT value chain revenue by sector, Sub-Saharan Africa, 2014–2024
Figure 26: Retail revenue from pay TV, Sub-Saharan Africa, 2014–2024
Figure 27: Total fixed and mobile telecoms service revenue, Ghana (GHS billion), 2014–2024
Figure 28: Mobile connections by type, Ghana (million), 2014–2024
Figure 29: Telecoms retail revenue and growth rate by service type, Ghana, 2014–2024
Figure 30: Fixed connections by type, Ghana (thousand), 2014–2024
Figure 31: 4G and contract share of mobile connections, Ghana, 2014–2024
Figure 32: Mobile ARPU, fixed voice ASPU and fixed broadband ASPU, Ghana (GHS per month), 2014–2024
Figure 33: Mobile data traffic per connection, Ghana (MB per month), 2014–2024
Figure 34: Broadband connections by technology, Ghana (thousand), 2014–2024
Figure 35: Total telecoms service revenue – current and previous forecasts, Ghana, 2014–2024
Figure 36: Total fixed and mobile telecoms service revenue, Kenya (KES billion), 2014–2024
Figure 37: Mobile connections by type, Kenya (million), 2014–2024
Figure 38: Telecoms retail revenue and growth rate by service type, Kenya, 2014–2024
Figure 39: Fixed connections by type, Kenya (thousand), 2014–2024
Figure 40: 4G, 5G and contract share of mobile connections, Kenya, 2014–2024
Figure 41: Mobile ARPU, fixed voice ASPU and fixed broadband ASPU, Kenya (KES thousand per month), 2014–2024
Figure 42: Mobile data traffic per connection, Kenya (MB per month), 2014–2024
Figure 43: Broadband connections by technology, Kenya (thousand), 2014–2024
Figure 44: Total telecoms service revenue – current and previous forecasts, Kenya, 2014–2024
Figure 45: Total fixed and mobile telecoms service revenue, Nigeria (NGN trillion), 2014–2024
Figure 46: Mobile connections by type, Nigeria (million), 2014–2024
Figure 47: Telecoms retail revenue and growth rate by service type, Nigeria, 2014–2024
Figure 48: Fixed connections by type, Nigeria (thousand), 2014–2024
Figure 49: 4G and contract share of mobile connections, Nigeria, 2014–2024
Figure 50: Mobile ARPU, fixed voice ASPU and fixed broadband ASPU, Nigeria (NGN thousand per month), 2014–2024
Figure 51: Mobile data traffic per connection, Nigeria (MB per month), 2014–2024
Figure 52: Broadband connections by technology, Nigeria (thousand), 2014–2024
Figure 53: Total telecoms service revenue – current and previous forecasts, Nigeria, 2014–2024
Figure 54: Total fixed and mobile telecoms service revenue, South Africa (ZAR billion), 2014–2024
Figure 55: Mobile connections by type, South Africa (million), 2014–2024
Figure 56: Telecoms retail revenue and growth rate by service type, South Africa, 2014–2024
Figure 57: Fixed connections by type, South Africa (million), 2014–2024
Figure 58: 4G, 5G and contract share of mobile connections, South Africa, 2014–2024
Figure 59: Mobile ARPU, fixed voice ASPU and fixed broadband ASPU, South Africa (ZAR per month), 2014–2024
Figure 60: Mobile data traffic per connection, South Africa (MB per month), 2014–2024
Figure 61: Broadband connections by technology, South Africa (million), 2014–2024
Figure 62: Total telecoms service revenue – current and previous forecasts, South Africa, 2014–2024
Figure 63: Total fixed and mobile telecoms service revenue, Tanzania (TZS trillion), 2014–2024
Figure 64: Mobile connections by type, Tanzania (million), 2014–2024
Figure 65: Telecoms retail revenue and growth rate by service type, Tanzania, 2014–2024
Figure 66: Fixed connections by type, Tanzania (thousand), 2014–2024
Figure 67: 4G and contract share of mobile connections, Tanzania, 2014–2024
Figure 68: Mobile ARPU, fixed voice ASPU and fixed broadband ASPU, Tanzania (TZS thousand per month), 2014–2024
Figure 69: Mobile data traffic per connection, Tanzania (MB per month), 2014–2024
Figure 70: Broadband connections by technology, Tanzania (thousand), 2014–2024
Figure 71: Total telecoms service revenue – current and previous forecasts, Tanzania, 2014–2024
Figure 72: Total fixed and mobile telecoms service revenue, Uganda (UGX trillion), 2014–2024
Figure 73: Mobile connections by type, Uganda (million), 2014–2024
Figure 74: Telecoms retail revenue and growth rate by service type, Uganda, 2014–2024
Figure 75: Fixed connections by type, Uganda (thousand), 2014–2024
Figure 76: 4G and contract share of mobile connections, Uganda, 2014–2024
Figure 77: Mobile ARPU, fixed voice ASPU and fixed broadband ASPU, Uganda (UGX thousand per month), 2014–2024
Figure 78: Mobile data traffic per connection, Uganda (MB per month), 2014–2024
Figure 79: Broadband connections by technology, Uganda (thousand), 2014–2024
Figure 80: Total telecoms service revenue – current and previous forecasts, Uganda, 2014–2024
Figure 81a: Methodology for attributing scores to each element in the key drivers table (current and future) and impact of high scores
Figure 81b: Methodology for attributing scores to each element in the key drivers table (current and future) and impact of high scores

• Clinical Results in Diabetics To Be Boosted By Smart Artificial Beta Cells

For a long time, the cure for diabetes type 1 and type 2 has relied on agonizing insulin shots for patients or insulin infusion via mechanical pumps. Regarding this, experts have been creating artificial pancreatic beta cells with the he…

• High-speed Data Transmission And High Volume Needs Propel Fiber Optic Connectors Market

Fiber optic connectors are a substantial fragment of the global telecommunication industry. Optical fibers are joined using fiber optic connectors, which allow the light conduction between two consecutive optical fibers. An additional im…

• Extensive Use of Digital Technologies for Diagnostic Applications To Boost Global Optical Imaging Market

The global optical imaging system market is predicted to reach US$ 3 billion by 2024. It is expected to grow at a stable rate and will post a CAGR of more than 8% in the coming years. The growing market infiltration of digital …

• Foremost Trends In Global Pet Care Market

The global pet care market is foretold to improve in the forthcoming years as matched to the preceding years and will showcase better sales in various market segments. It is estimated that the global pet care market will grow at a CAGR o…

• China To Review Its Food Security Laws

China has arisen as the globe’s firmest developing economy. In addition, China brags about the biggest population pool in the world. In recent times, the one child policy in the republic was terminated. This is anticipated to upsur…

Global 5G Infrastructure Market Growth (Status and Outlook) 2024-2030

Published: 04-Jan-2024        Price: US 3660 Onwards        Pages: 103

According to our LPI (LP Information) latest study, the global 5G Infrastructure market size was valued at US$ 5453.7 million in 2023. With growing demand in downstream market, the 5G Infrastructure is forecast to a readjusted size of US$ 21670 million by 2030 with a CAGR of 21.8% during review period. The research report highlights the growth potential of the global 5G Infrastructure market. 5G Infrastructure are expected to show stable growth in the future market. However, product diff......

Global 5G Services Market Growth (Status and Outlook) 2024-2030

Published: 04-Jan-2024        Price: US 3660 Onwards        Pages: 129

According to our LPI (LP Information) latest study, the global 5G Services market size was valued at US$ 6525.9 million in 2023. With growing demand in downstream market, the 5G Services is forecast to a readjusted size of US$ 43270 million by 2030 with a CAGR of 31.0% during review period. The research report highlights the growth potential of the global 5G Services market. 5G Services are expected to show stable growth in the future market. However, product differentiation, reducing co......

Global 5G Infrastructure Market 2024 by Company, Regions, Type and Application, Forecast to 2030

Published: 01-Jan-2024        Price: US 3480 Onwards        Pages: 109

According to our (Global Info Research) latest study, the global 5G Infrastructure market size was valued at USD 5736.4 million in 2023 and is forecast to a readjusted size of USD 20670 million by 2030 with a CAGR of 20.1% during review period. 5th generation wireless systems, abbreviated 5G, are improved wireless network technologies deploying in 2018 and later. The primary technologies include: Millimeter wave bands (26, 28, 38, and 60 GHz) offer performance as high as 20 gigabits per ......

Global Intercoms Market Research Report 2023, Forecast to 2028

Published: 28-Dec-2023        Price: US 2680 Onwards        Pages: 181

An electrical device allowing one-way or two-way communication. Our market research experts provide qualitative and quantitative analysis of the market based on involving economic and non-economic factors in the same report with market value (million USD) data for each segment and sub-segment. This way, clients can achieve all their goals while taking advantage of emerging opportunities. Technological advancements, new product launches, and market capital flows are compared across scenari......

Global Intercoms Professional Survey Report 2023, Forecast to 2028

Published: 28-Dec-2023        Price: US 3280 Onwards        Pages: 152

An electrical device allowing one-way or two-way communication. Our market research experts provide qualitative and quantitative analysis of the market based on involving economic and non-economic factors in the same report with market value (million USD) data for each segment and sub-segment. This way, clients can achieve all their goals while taking advantage of emerging opportunities. Technological advancements, new product launches, and market capital flows are compared across scenari......

Global B2B Telecommunication Industry Research Report, In-depth Analysis of Current Status and Outlook of Key Countries 2023-2028

Published: 28-Dec-2023        Price: US 3380 Onwards        Pages: 115

Market Overview of Global B2B Telecommunication market: According to our latest research, the global B2B Telecommunication market looks promising in the next 5 years. As of 2022, the global B2B Telecommunication market was estimated at USD 787410.0 million, and it's anticipated to reach USD 891802.77 million in 2028, with a CAGR of 2.1% during the forecast years. This report covers a research time span from 2018 to 2028, and presents a deep and comprehensive analysis of the g......

Private LTE/5G networks: worldwide trends and forecasts 2023-2028

Published: 21-Dec-2023        Price: US 7999 Onwards        Pages: 25

"Although spend on private LTE/5G networks is low relative to spend on public networks, spend on private LTE/5G networks will reach USD9 billion by 2028." This report provides a forecast of the number of private LTE/5G networks that will be deployed between 2023 and 2028 and the corresponding capex and opex. It provides a detailed outlook on the key trends driving growth in the private LTE/5G networks market.  Coverage ......

5G NTN Market by Component (Hardware, Software, Services), End-use Industry (Maritime, Aerospace & Defense, Government, Mining), Application (eMBB, URLLC, mMTC), Location (Urban, Rural, Remote, Isolated), Platform and Region - Global Forecast to 2028

Published: 19-Dec-2023        Price: US 4950 Onwards        Pages: 190

“Soaring demand for low-latency, high-bandwidth connectivity in diverse environments fuels the 5G NTN market's explosive growth.” The 5G NTN market is estimated at USD 4.2 billion to USD 23.5 billion at a CAGR of 40.7%from 2023 to 2028. The drive to enhance 5G network coverage in remote and underserved regions will generate increased demand for High Altitude Platform Stations (HAPS), Geostationary Earth Orbit (GEO), and various other platforms within the 5......

2023-2031 Report on Global Telecom Services Market by Player, Region, Type, Application and Sales Channel

Published: 18-Dec-2023        Price: US 2500 Onwards        Pages: 121

This report studies the Telecom Services market, covering market size for segment by type (Fixed Voice Services, Fixed Internet Access Services, etc.), by application (Consumer/Residential, Business, etc.), by sales channel (Direct Channel, Distribution Channel), by player (AT&T, Verizon, NTT, China Mobile, Deutsche Telekom, etc.) and by region (North America, Europe, Asia-Pacific, South America and Middle East & Africa). This report provides detailed historical analysis of global......

We believe in "optimum utilization of available budget and resources". While servicing our clients' (your) market research requirements, we keep the same approach in focus to help you get the best value for your $$s. Ranging from the smallest feasible / required data (datasheets, data facts, SWOT analysis, company profiles, etc) to full research reports that help you make decisions, our inventory is updated almost on a daily basis with the latest industry reports from domain experts that track more than 5000 niche sectors. Need a custom research report on medical devices market? Require all available business intelligence on 3D printing industry? Exploring F&B sector of a particular country/region? RnRMarketResearch.com is your one-stop-solution to all market intelligence needs. We not only offer custom research and consulting services, we also "bundle" reports to meet your needs and help you fetch the data analysis you require for your business. Not limited to only "finding" relevant reports for you, our client engagement team dedicates its efforts to understand your "business need" and accordingly maps available research data to help you move forward. Call "your" client engagement executive any time of your day and get your questions answered in order to make the correct business decision. Simply share your research requirement details with us and let us do all the hard work to find required intelligence for you. When you add up our "one stop solution" and "dedicated client engagement" services mentioned above, you obviously know the time and effort saving you do by working with us. Working with Fortune 500 organizations, we understand the importance of being flexible for payments. Share your payment terms with us and we will surely match up to them to ensure you get access to required business intelligence data without having to wait for the payment to be done. Have questions after reading a report / datasheet bought through us? Not sure about the methodology used for data available in the research? Talk to us / Share your questions with us and if required, we will connect you with the analyst(s)/author(s) of the report(s) and ensure you get satisfactory answers for the same. Need more data / analysis / report(s) on the topic of your research/project? The RnRMarketResearch.com team is here for you 24X7 to support you with your post-purchase requirements. Subscription Offers & Packages (Get in touch with us for more details - [email protected] / +1 888 391 5441 )

• Ad Hoc
• Pay - as - you - go / Bucket Subscriptions
• Fixed Cost for #of reports
• Customize / Personalize as per your needs