The Sub-Saharan Africa telecoms market: trends and forecasts 2019-2024

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Date: 14-Jan-2020
No. of pages: 44
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"Digital services will play a key role in driving the growth in non-messaging and non-voice revenue in Sub-Saharan Africa as consumers look to operators for their financial services."

Data revenue will be an increasingly important component of the overall mobile retail revenue in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). Revenue growth will be driven by the higher demand for digital and internet services, greater access to smartphones, improved 3G service quality and coverage, expanding 4G coverage, better-value data offers and limited fixed broadband infrastructure.

This report and associated data annex provide:


  • a 5-year forecast of more than 180 mobile and fixed KPIs for SSA, as a whole and for 11 key countries

  • an in-depth analysis of the trends, drivers and forecast assumptions for each type of mobile and fixed service, and for key countries

  • an overview of operator strategies and country-specific topics, in order to highlight similarities and differences by means of a cross-country comparison

  • a summary of results, key implications and recommendations for mobile and fixed operators.


Coverage

Geographical coverage

Regions modelled


  • Sub-Saharan Africa


Countries modelled individually


  • Cameroon

  • Côte d’Ivoire

  • Ghana

  • Kenya

  • Nigeria

  • Rwanda

  • South Africa

  • Sudan

  • Tanzania

  • Uganda

  • Zambia


Key performance indicators

Connections

Mobile


  • Handset, mobile broadband, IoT

  • Prepaid, contract

  • 2G, 3G, 4G, 5G

  • Smartphone, non-smartphone


Fixed


  • Voice, broadband, IPTV, dial-up

  • Narrowband voice, VoBB

  • DSL, FTTP/B, cable, BFWA, 5G, other


Voice traffic

Fixed and mobile


  • Outgoing minutes, MoU


Revenue

Mobile


  • Service, retail

  • Prepaid, contract

  • Handset, mobile broadband, IoT

  • Handset voice, messaging, data


Fixed


  • Service, retail

  • Voice, broadband, IPTV, dial-up, business services

  • DSL, FTTP/B, cable, BFWA, other


ARPU

Mobile


  • SIMs, handset

  • Prepaid, contract

  • Handset voice, data

The Sub-Saharan Africa telecoms market: trends and forecasts 2019-2024

Table of Contents

8.Executive summary and recommendations
Sub-Saharan Africa is a highly mobile-centric region with a strong potential for fixed broadband revenue growth
SSA has an emerging telecoms market that will benefit from gradually increasing political and economic stability
Geographical coverage: the adoption of next-generation access (NGA) fixed broadband will increase the most in Ghana, Nigeria and South Africa
Key trends, drivers and assumptions for the mobile and fixed markets
Key recommendations for telecoms operators
Regional forecasts and cross-country comparison
Market context: the low-income nature of the region has led to a low telecoms services spend in all countries except South Africa
Key mergers, acquisitions and market entries
Key drivers at a glance for each Sub-Saharan Africa market
Market overview: mobile revenue will continue to be the dominant contributor to total telecoms revenue, but fixed broadband revenue will also grow strongly
Mobile: the prepaid share of mobile connections will remain above 95%; this will play a role in keeping the ARPU low
Mobile: mobile penetration will increase across the region as increasing network coverage is balanced by the decreasing need for multiple SIMs
Mobile: consumer spending on data services and the migration to 3G/4G services will ensure a slower ARPU decline in some countries and increase ARPU in others
Mobile: SSA will remain a developing region in terms of mobile technology take-up because 3G will become the dominant form of mobile access
23.Fixed: fixed-wireless will remain the dominant form of access because operator investment in fixed infrastructure will be confined to wealthy metropolitan areas
Fixed: broadband household penetration will remain low in most countries due to a lack of affordability and coverage
Fixed: ASPU will remain largely stable on a regional level because increased NGA penetration will be offset by the natural decline in access prices
Fixed: the take-up of fixed-wireless access and fibre services will lead to fixed broadband penetration growth in the region
Specialist business services: the majority of business services revenue in SSA will be generated in Nigeria and South Africa
IoT: the number of cellular M2M connections will grow significantly, but M2M will remain a niche segment
Pay TV: total revenue growth will be driven by the increased take-up of DTH and pay-DTT services
Individual country forecasts
Ghana: mobile handset revenue growth will slow down during the forecast period; basic phones will continue to dominate the market
Ghana: revenue growth in the fixed market will be driven by increased demand for fibre, but the total number of fixed connections will remain low
Ghana: the growing demand for data and fibre will boost revenue, but there is still potential for moderate growth in the number of mobile connections
Ghana: forecast changes
Kenya: fixed broadband service adoption will benefit from continued operator investment
36.Kenya: the continued adoption of 4G and the introduction of 5G will drive mobile traffic; fibre will consolidate its dominance in the FBB market
Kenya: there is potential for mobile market revenue growth thanks to increased network coverage and smartphone affordability
Kenya: forecast changes
Nigeria: the mobile market will grow (both in terms of the number of connections and revenue), despite uncertain economic conditions
Nigeria: increasing smartphone affordability and operators’ LTE network expansions will sustain the take-up of 4G services
Nigeria: mobile data revenue will form a growing share of the total revenue, and the penetration of fixed broadband services will remain very low
Nigeria: forecast changes
South Africa: the relatively high disposable income of the population will support the growth in the demand for telecoms services
South Africa: the number of prepaid connections will grow, so the contract share of mobile connections will remain stable despite net growth
South Africa: the number of 4G connections will grow in the near future, but 5G will be the technology of choice for high-end consumers by 2024
South Africa: forecast changes
Tanzania: mobile service revenue will keep growing during the forecast period despite intense competition in the market
Tanzania: price competition in the mobile market will drive ARPU down; fixed-wireless will be the most-widespread broadband technology in 2024
Tanzania: there is potential for growth in the mobile market; penetration of fixed services will remain limited
Tanzania: forecast changes
51.Uganda: mobile service revenue growth will be modest despite the low level of mobile penetration
Uganda: the number of 4G connections will grow to be nearly a quarter of all mobile connections in 2024 due to the demand for fast data services
Uganda: there is potential for organic mobile revenue growth, but poverty and a large rural population will make it difficult to realise the potential
Uganda: forecast changes
Methodology
Our forecast model is supported by sound market knowledge
Examples of forecast input drivers
Key drivers at a glance table: methodology [1]
Key drivers at a glance table: methodology [2]
About the authors and Analysys Mason
About the authors
Analysys Mason’s consulting and research are uniquely positioned
Research from Analysys Mason
Consulting from Analysys Mason

List of Figures:

Figure 1: Telecoms and pay-TV retail revenue by type and total service revenue, Sub-Saharan Africa, 2014–2024
Figure 2: Growth in telecoms retail revenue and nominal GDP by country, Sub-Saharan Africa, 2018–2024
Figure 3: 4G/5G share of mobile connections and NGA share of fixed broadband connections by country, Sub-Saharan Africa, 2018 and 20241
Figure 4: Summary of key trends, drivers and assumptions for Sub-Saharan Africa
Figure 5: Metrics for the 11 countries modelled individually in Sub-Saharan Africa, 2018
Figure 6: Recent and upcoming market structure changes in Sub-Saharan Africa
Figure 7: Major forecast drivers: current situation (2018) and future trajectory (2019–2024), by country, Sub-Saharan Africa
Figure 8: Total fixed and mobile telecoms service revenue, Sub-Saharan Africa (USD billion), 2014–2024
Figure 9: Mobile connections by type, Sub-Saharan Africa (million), 2014–2024
Figure 10: Telecoms retail revenue and growth rate by service type, Sub-Saharan Africa, 2014–2024
Figure 11: Fixed connections by type, Sub-Saharan Africa (million), 2014–2024
Figure 12: Mobile connections by generation, Sub-Saharan Africa (million), 2014–2024
Figure 13: Mobile ARPU by type, Sub-Saharan Africa (USD per month), 2014–2024
Figure 14: Contract share of mobile connections (excluding IoT), Sub-Saharan Africa, 2014–2024
Figure 15: Mobile data traffic per connection, Sub-Saharan Africa (MB per month), 2014–2024
Figure 16a: Mobile penetration by country, Sub-Saharan Africa, 2014–2024
Figure 16b: Mobile penetration by country, Sub-Saharan Africa, 2014–2024
Figure 17a: Mobile ARPU by country, Sub-Saharan Africa, 2014–2024
Figure 17b: Mobile ARPU by country, Sub-Saharan Africa, 2014–2024
Figure 18: Broadband connections by technology, Sub-Saharan Africa (million), 2014–2024
Figure 19: Fixed retail revenue by service, Sub-Saharan Africa (USD billion), 2014–2024
Figure 20: NGA broadband household penetration and NGA share of broadband connections, Sub-Saharan Africa, 2014–2024
Figure 21: Fixed Internet traffic per broadband connection, Sub-Saharan Africa (GB per month), 2014–2024
Figure 22a: Fixed broadband household penetration by country, Sub-Saharan Africa, 2014–2024
Figure 22b: Fixed broadband household penetration by country, Sub-Saharan Africa, 2014–2024
Figure 23a: Fixed broadband access ASPU by country, Sub-Saharan Africa, 2014–2024
Figure 23b: Fixed broadband access ASPU by country, Sub-Saharan Africa, 2014–2024
Figure 24: Total market revenue from specialist business services, Sub-Saharan Africa, 2014–2024
Figure 25: Total IoT value chain revenue by sector, Sub-Saharan Africa, 2014–2024
Figure 26: Retail revenue from pay TV, Sub-Saharan Africa, 2014–2024
Figure 27: Total fixed and mobile telecoms service revenue, Ghana (GHS billion), 2014–2024
Figure 28: Mobile connections by type, Ghana (million), 2014–2024
Figure 29: Telecoms retail revenue and growth rate by service type, Ghana, 2014–2024
Figure 30: Fixed connections by type, Ghana (thousand), 2014–2024
Figure 31: 4G and contract share of mobile connections, Ghana, 2014–2024
Figure 32: Mobile ARPU, fixed voice ASPU and fixed broadband ASPU, Ghana (GHS per month), 2014–2024
Figure 33: Mobile data traffic per connection, Ghana (MB per month), 2014–2024
Figure 34: Broadband connections by technology, Ghana (thousand), 2014–2024
Figure 35: Total telecoms service revenue – current and previous forecasts, Ghana, 2014–2024
Figure 36: Total fixed and mobile telecoms service revenue, Kenya (KES billion), 2014–2024
Figure 37: Mobile connections by type, Kenya (million), 2014–2024
Figure 38: Telecoms retail revenue and growth rate by service type, Kenya, 2014–2024
Figure 39: Fixed connections by type, Kenya (thousand), 2014–2024
Figure 40: 4G, 5G and contract share of mobile connections, Kenya, 2014–2024
Figure 41: Mobile ARPU, fixed voice ASPU and fixed broadband ASPU, Kenya (KES thousand per month), 2014–2024
Figure 42: Mobile data traffic per connection, Kenya (MB per month), 2014–2024
Figure 43: Broadband connections by technology, Kenya (thousand), 2014–2024
Figure 44: Total telecoms service revenue – current and previous forecasts, Kenya, 2014–2024
Figure 45: Total fixed and mobile telecoms service revenue, Nigeria (NGN trillion), 2014–2024
Figure 46: Mobile connections by type, Nigeria (million), 2014–2024
Figure 47: Telecoms retail revenue and growth rate by service type, Nigeria, 2014–2024
Figure 48: Fixed connections by type, Nigeria (thousand), 2014–2024
Figure 49: 4G and contract share of mobile connections, Nigeria, 2014–2024
Figure 50: Mobile ARPU, fixed voice ASPU and fixed broadband ASPU, Nigeria (NGN thousand per month), 2014–2024
Figure 51: Mobile data traffic per connection, Nigeria (MB per month), 2014–2024
Figure 52: Broadband connections by technology, Nigeria (thousand), 2014–2024
Figure 53: Total telecoms service revenue – current and previous forecasts, Nigeria, 2014–2024
Figure 54: Total fixed and mobile telecoms service revenue, South Africa (ZAR billion), 2014–2024
Figure 55: Mobile connections by type, South Africa (million), 2014–2024
Figure 56: Telecoms retail revenue and growth rate by service type, South Africa, 2014–2024
Figure 57: Fixed connections by type, South Africa (million), 2014–2024
Figure 58: 4G, 5G and contract share of mobile connections, South Africa, 2014–2024
Figure 59: Mobile ARPU, fixed voice ASPU and fixed broadband ASPU, South Africa (ZAR per month), 2014–2024
Figure 60: Mobile data traffic per connection, South Africa (MB per month), 2014–2024
Figure 61: Broadband connections by technology, South Africa (million), 2014–2024
Figure 62: Total telecoms service revenue – current and previous forecasts, South Africa, 2014–2024
Figure 63: Total fixed and mobile telecoms service revenue, Tanzania (TZS trillion), 2014–2024
Figure 64: Mobile connections by type, Tanzania (million), 2014–2024
Figure 65: Telecoms retail revenue and growth rate by service type, Tanzania, 2014–2024
Figure 66: Fixed connections by type, Tanzania (thousand), 2014–2024
Figure 67: 4G and contract share of mobile connections, Tanzania, 2014–2024
Figure 68: Mobile ARPU, fixed voice ASPU and fixed broadband ASPU, Tanzania (TZS thousand per month), 2014–2024
Figure 69: Mobile data traffic per connection, Tanzania (MB per month), 2014–2024
Figure 70: Broadband connections by technology, Tanzania (thousand), 2014–2024
Figure 71: Total telecoms service revenue – current and previous forecasts, Tanzania, 2014–2024
Figure 72: Total fixed and mobile telecoms service revenue, Uganda (UGX trillion), 2014–2024
Figure 73: Mobile connections by type, Uganda (million), 2014–2024
Figure 74: Telecoms retail revenue and growth rate by service type, Uganda, 2014–2024
Figure 75: Fixed connections by type, Uganda (thousand), 2014–2024
Figure 76: 4G and contract share of mobile connections, Uganda, 2014–2024
Figure 77: Mobile ARPU, fixed voice ASPU and fixed broadband ASPU, Uganda (UGX thousand per month), 2014–2024
Figure 78: Mobile data traffic per connection, Uganda (MB per month), 2014–2024
Figure 79: Broadband connections by technology, Uganda (thousand), 2014–2024
Figure 80: Total telecoms service revenue – current and previous forecasts, Uganda, 2014–2024
Figure 81a: Methodology for attributing scores to each element in the key drivers table (current and future) and impact of high scores
Figure 81b: Methodology for attributing scores to each element in the key drivers table (current and future) and impact of high scores

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