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The Public small cells worldwide: forecasts and analysis 2015–2020

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Date: 25-Mar-2015
No. of pages: 34
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Public small-cell deployments are focused on metro mobile traffic, which will not grow much faster than effective macrocell capacity, but a switch of focus could improve the case for small cells. There is a 'small-cell gap' between the limited-volume deployment and high-cost projections we hear from operators, and the high-volume deployment and low-cost projections we hear from vendors. What will get operators from one to the other is not so much the increasingly implausible traffic projections, but rather a change of focus on location of deployment. This report provides:


  • forecasts of public (that is, paid for by operators for general traffic) small-cell deployments worldwide and in eight geographical regions, including:

    • a breakdown of metro small-cell deployments by geotype

    • forecasts of capex on public small-cell equipment and software

    • busy-hour traffic density forecasts (Gbps per km2)



  • an overview of the drivers and barriers to operators deploying public small cells to boost capacity, including an assessment of the growth in the effective capacity of macrocells

  • an assessment of future alternative business models using small cells including residential fibre–wireless and 5G.


Geographical coverage


  • Central and Eastern Europe

  • Developed Asia–Pacific

  • Emerging Asia–Pacific

  • Latin America

  • Middle East and North Africa

  • North America

  • Sub-Saharan Africa

  • Western Europe

The Public small cells worldwide: forecasts and analysis 2015–2020

Table of contents

About this report
Public small cells: growth tomorrow, never growth today
Recommendations
Recommendations
Capacity-driven deployments
Our forecast assesses the deployment of public small cells where they are used to deliver additional capacity
Wireless data traffic is dominated by at-home Wi-Fi
Mobile traffic continues to grow at a fast pace, but LTE is starting to have an impact on Wi-Fi and may change the way in which networks are built
Data traffic is concentrated in dense urban areas, but we doubt whether it will become much more concentrated in developed economies
Bandwidth density will rise to 12.6Gbps per km2 in the busiest areas of the busiest cities by 2020
Most capacity-driven small-cell deployments will consist largely, but not exclusively, of metrocells
The deployment of LTE-A postpones demand for public small cells
The competitive structure of the mobile market will create short-term inefficiencies
Asia–Pacific and North America will together account for 78% of the installed base of public small cells by 2020
About 6% of macrocells worldwide will have some level of public small-cell underlay by 2020
The number of public small cells deployed worldwide will rise to 4.9 million by 2020 if data traffic increases at a 60% CAGR
Cumulative capex on small-cell equipment and software will be USD15.6 billion by 2020
Data traffic is moving indoors and small cells will increasingly be integrated with Wi-Fi to meet that need
Further opportunities
The current opportunities are for specific use cases, but there are
long-term opportunities in mass-market densification and 5G
Small cells for public-space not-spots
Three factors could trigger hyper-densification
Hyper-densification: at what cost?
The growth of out-of-home data usage is subject to practical demand-side limitations
Back to outside-in: Addressing the home broadband market from highly distributed base stations
5G will be the real driver of small-cell deployment
Methodology
Methodology for forecast
About the author and Analysys Mason

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