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The OTT video worldwide: trends and forecasts 2017-2022

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Date: 07-Feb-2018
No. of pages: 35
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"By 2022, the OTT video spend will be almost twice that of IPTV, worldwide. OTT video will generate a spend per year of USD84 billion by 2022."

In 2017, worldwide consumer spend on IPTV reached USD35 billion; OTT video spend reached the same figure. By 2022, however, OTT video will be the more lucrative business of the two. Spend will grow at a CAGR of 19% between 2017 and 2022, and OTT video will generate a spend per year of USD84 billion compared to the USD47 billion for IPTV.

This report provides:


  • Forecasts for the number of premium OTT video users, spend and average spend per user (ASPU)

  • Forecasts split by category of OTT video service – linear channels, linear events, TVoD (rental), TVoD (ownership) and SVoD

  • Forecasts for 47 individual countries, all world regions, and the world as a whole

  • An overview of the trends and drivers in the market.


Key performance indicators:


  • Users/subscribers

  • Population penetration

  • Spend

  • ASPU


All of the above split by the following categories of OTT video service:


  • Linear – channels (paid-for and free)

  • Linear – events

  • TVoD – rental

  • TVoD – ownership

  • SVoD (paid-for and free)


Also split by device type:


  • Smartphone

  • Tablet

  • PC

  • TV set (including STB, smart TVs, consoles and other streamers)


Geographical coverage:

Region


  • Worldwide

  • Western Europe

    • Austria, Belgium, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Ireland, Italy, Netherlands, Norway, Portugal, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, UK



  • Central and Eastern Europe

    • Bulgaria, Croatia, Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Montenegro, Poland, Romania, Russia, Serbia, Slovakia, Slovenia, Turkey, Ukraine



  • Middle East and North Africa

    • Israel, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, UAE



  • Sub-Saharan Africa

  • North America

    • Canada, USA



  • Emerging Asia–Pacific

    • China, India, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand



  • Developed Asia–Pacific

    • Australia, Japan, South Korea



The OTT video worldwide: trends and forecasts 2017-2022

Table of Contents

5.Executive summary
6.Paid-for OTT video services’ worth will increase from USD35 billion at the end of 2017 to USD84 billion by 2022
7.How we classify services in this forecast
8.SVoD services will account for three quarters of all retail revenue growth between 2017 and 2022
9.All regions will register double-digit CAGRs between 2017 and 2022 for subscribers and retail revenue
10.Key recommendations for TV and video stakeholders
11.Worldwide forecasts and regional comparison
12.Worldwide: North America will have the highest penetration of premium OTT video services by 2022
13.Worldwide: Paid-for OTT video services’ worth will increase from USD35 billion at the end of 2017 to USD84 billion by 2022
14.Worldwide: There will be 778 million premium OTT video users by 2022
15.SVoD will be the growth engine of OTT video and the majority of SVoD subscriptions will come from emerging Asia–Pacific by 2022
16.TVoD retail revenue will continue to grow and the service is particularly valuable in Europe
17.The growth of linear OTT services will be driven primarily by existing rights holders, with particular traction in DVAP and NA
18.Regional forecasts
19.Western Europe: SVoD will account for 70% of consumer spend on OTT by 2022 but live streaming content will be worth USD2.3 billion per year too
20.Western Europe: Operators’ role in launching linear services, and integrating OTT SVoD into their STBs, will significantly affect the market
21.Western Europe: Almost 20% of the OTT video spend in Ireland, Italy, Switzerland and the UK will be for linear services by 2022
22.Western Europe: Operators’ role in launching linear services, and integrating OTT SVoD into their STBs, will significantly affect the market
23.Western Europe: Almost 20% of the OTT video spend in Ireland, Italy, Switzerland and the UK will be for linear services by 2022
24.Central & Eastern Europe: Live streaming content will account for 26% of OTT spend by 2022, mainly driven by telecoms sports services in Turkey
25.Central & Eastern Europe: SVoD has struggled to gain scale but OTT linear channels have established a valuable presence
26.Central & Eastern Europe: The relative importance of SVoD, TVoD and linear services varies significantly by market – Turkey is a notable outlier
27.MENA: Spend will increase at a 16% CAGR but from a very low base as pay TV, operator-funded models and piracy constrain take-up
28.MENA: Operators will control the growth of OTT in the region through partnerships, service integration/bundling and their own OTT services
29.MENA: There is a consistently low penetration of premium OTT video across the region and SVoD is the most popular application
30.North America: ASPU will climb rapidly from multiple service take-up; mass-market linear services will be worth over USD6 billion by 2022
31.North America: Premium OTT video will be worth USD25 billion by 2022; rights holders will take multiple routes to market
32.North America: 118 million paying OTT users by 2022
33.EMAP (excluding China): Only around half of the 167 million users of premium OTT video services in 2022 will pay for them directly
34.EMAP (excluding China): B2B2C models will drive OTT use in the region; OTT linear channels will also become
35.China: Alibaba, Baidu and Tencent will try to monetise their large active user bases in 2017 to triple spending to nearly USD20 billion in 2022
36.China: SVoD and live streaming services will both try to convert ad-supported services to paying subscriptions, but only SVoD will succeed
37.EMAP: Regional trends are dominated by China
38.DVAP: More than half of OTT video spend in the region is from Japan, but penetration is higher in South Korea, and ASPU is greater in Australia
39.DVAP: Aggressive operator-led linear OTT services in Japan and South Korea will constrain direct spend, but subscription numbers will soar
40.DVAP: Linear services will have a stronger presence in terms of subscribers and spend in this region than elsewhere
41.LATAM: Retail revenue will be heavily dominated by SVoD generally, and Netflix in particular
42.LATAM: The number of SVoD subscribers will grow from 20 million in 2017 to 55 million by 2022
43.SSA: ASPU is unstable due to the changing popularity of service types
44.SSA: Operator-bundled OTT services will start to play a larger role from 2018 onwards
45.Forecast methodology and assumptions
46.Our spend forecasts focus on the direct flow of money between consumers and OTT video providers
47.About the authors and Analysys Mason
48.About the authors
49.About Analysys Mason
50.Research from Analysys Mason
51.Consulting from Analysys Mason

List of Figures

Figure 1: OTT video retail revenue by service type and blended ASPU, worldwide, 2013–2022
Figure 2: OTT video retail revenue growth by service type, worldwide, 2017–2022
Figure 3: OTT video retail revenue growth and user growth by worldwide region, 2017–2022
Figure 4: SVoD, TVoD and linear share of retail revenues for OTT video, and premium OTT video user penetration, worldwide by region, 2022
Figure 5: OTT video retail revenue by service type and blended ASPU, worldwide, 2013–2022
Figure 6: OTT video users and growth rates by service type, worldwide, 2017–2022
Figure 7: OTT video spend and growth rates by service type, worldwide, 2017–2022
Figure 8: OTT video users and ASPU by business model, worldwide, 2013–2022
Figure 9: Distribution of SVoD subscribers by world region, 2016–2022
Figure 10: OTT transactional VoD retail revenue by region, worldwide, 2013–2022
Figure 11: Users of paid-for OTT linear channels and linear events by region, worldwide, 2013–2022
Figure 12: OTT video retail revenue by service type and blended ASPU, Western Europe, 2013–2022
Figure 13: OTT video users and growth rates by service type, Western Europe, 2017–2022
Figure 14: OTT video spend and growth rates by service type, Western Europe, 2017–2022
Figure 15: OTT video users and ASPU by business model, Western Europe, 2013–2022
Figure 16: SVoD, TVoD and linear share of retail revenues for OTT video, and premium OTT video user penetration, Western Europe, 2022
Figure 17: OTT video retail revenue by service type and blended ASPU, CEE, 2013–2022
Figure 18: OTT video users and growth rates by service type, CEE, 2017–2022
Figure 19: OTT video spend and growth rates by service type, CEE, 2017–2022
Figure 20: OTT video users and ASPU by business model, CEE, 2013–2022
Figure 21: SVoD, TVoD and linear share of retail revenues for OTT video, and premium OTT video user penetration, Central and Eastern Europe, 2022
Figure 22: OTT video retail revenue by service type and blended ASPU, MENA, 2013–2022
Figure 23: OTT video users and growth rates by service type, MENA, 2017–2022
Figure 24: OTT video spend and growth rates by service type, MENA, 2017–2022
Figure 25: OTT video users and ASPU by business model, MENA, 2013–2022
Figure 26: SVoD, TVoD and linear share of retail revenues for OTT video, and premium OTT video user penetration, Middle East and North Africa, 2022
Figure 27: OTT video retail revenue by service type and blended ASPU, NA, 2013–2022
Figure 28: OTT video users and growth rates by service type, NA, 2017–2022
Figure 29: OTT video spend and growth rates by service type, NA, 2017–2022
Figure 30: OTT video users and ASPU by business model, NA, 2013–2022
Figure 31: SVoD, TVoD and linear share of retail revenues for OTT video, and premium OTT video user penetration, North America, 2022
Figure 32: OTT video retail revenue by service type and blended ASPU, EMAP excluding China, 2013–2022
Figure 33: OTT video users and growth rates by service type, EMAP excluding China, 2017–2022
Figure 34: OTT video spend and growth rates by service type, EMAP excluding China, 2017–2022
Figure 35: OTT video users and ASPU by business model, EMAP excluding China, 2013–2022
Figure 36: OTT video retail revenue by service type and blended ASPU, China, 2013–2022
Figure 37: OTT video users and growth rates by service type, China, 2017–2022
Figure 38: OTT video spend and growth rates by service type, China, 2017–2022
Figure 39: OTT video users and ASPU by business model, China, 2013–2022
Figure 40: SVoD, TVoD and linear share of retail revenues for OTT video, and premium OTT video user penetration, emerging Asia–Pacific, 2022
Figure 41: OTT video retail revenue by service type and blended ASPU, DVAP, 2013–2022
Figure 42: OTT video users and growth rates by service type, DVAP, 2017–2022
Figure 43: OTT video spend and growth rates by service type, DVAP, 2017–2022
Figure 44: OTT video users and ASPU by business model, DVAP, 2013–2022
Figure 45: SVoD, TVoD and linear share of retail revenues for OTT video, and premium OTT video user penetration, developed Asia–Pacific, 2016 and 2022
Figure 46: OTT video retail revenue by service type and blended ASPU, LATAM, 2013–2022
Figure 47: OTT video users and growth rates by service type, LATAM, 2017–2022
Figure 48: OTT video spend and growth rates by service type, LATAM, 2017–2022
Figure 49: OTT video users and ASPU by business model, LATAM, 2013–2022
Figure 50: OTT video retail revenue by service type and blended ASPU, SSA, 2013–2022
Figure 51: OTT video users and growth rates by service type, SSA, 2017–2022
Figure 52: OTT video spend  and growth rates by service type, SSA, 2017–2022
Figure 53: OTT video users and ASPU by business model, SSA, 2013–2022
Figure 54: Scope of our premium OTT video spend forecasts

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