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The Operator business services: South Africa forecast 2019-2024

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Date: 24-Jan-2020
No. of pages: 15
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"A new regulation will affect operator business revenue in 2019 and 2020, but we expect that the market will recover thereafter thanks to strong revenue growth in fixed and mobile data, IoT and ICT services."

This report provides an outlook on the telecoms and ICT services market in South Africa for micro, small, medium-sized and large enterprises. It contains forecasts for fixed and mobile voice and data network services, as well as ICT services such as security, co-location and hosting and public cloud services.

This report provides:


  • forecasts for operator services to micro, small, medium-sized and large enterprises including fixed and mobile voice and data services, IoT connectivity services and ICT services such as security and co-location and hosting

  • an estimate of the total market for these ICT services and the likely share achievable by operators for each service

  • quantification of revenue, the number of connections or users and ARPU for each service and each business segment (micro, small, medium and large)

  • demographic data on the number of employees, enterprises and sites within each segment (note that we include entities in the governmental and public sectors).


Coverage

Geographical coverage

Countries modelled


  • South Africa


Enterprise sizes


  • Micro (0–9 employees)

  • Small (10–49 employees)

  • Medium (50–249 employees)

  • Large (250+ employees)


Services

Mobile


  • Voice and messaging

  • Handset data

  • Mobile broadband

  • IoT connectivity


Fixed


  • Narrowband voice

  • VoBB

  • ADSL/SDSL, vDSL, FTTP/B, cable, FWA, other fixed broadband

  • Dedicated connections: below 100Mbit/s, 100Mbit/s and up to 1Gbit/s, and at least 1Gbit/s


ICT


  • Unified communications (UC) and hosted voice

  • Security

  • Co-location and hosting

  • Software-as-a-service (SaaS)

  • Infrastructure-as-a-service and platform-as-a-service (IaaS/PaaS)

  • Enterprise mobility

  • Desktop management

The Operator business services: South Africa forecast 2019-2024

Table of Contents

5.Executive summary
Executive summary: operator business revenue in South Africa will be largely flat: revenue growth in data, IoT and ICT services will offset declines in legacy services
Implications for operators
Forecast results
Operator business revenue in South Africa will be affected by mobile regulations in 2019 and 2020, but will recover thereafter
Operator business revenue will remain mostly flat over the forecast period as growth in fixed and mobile data services and ICT will offset the decline in legacy voice
The decline in legacy voice revenue is most marked in the large enterprise segment, but this is also where we expect to see the bulk of the growth in ICT revenue
The new EUSSC regulation will cause a decline in mobile business revenue in 2019/ 2020, but this will be offset by an increase in the number of connections thereafter
Revenue from fixed services will decline marginally in South Africa over the forecast period, driven by the significant fall in fixed voice and narrowband revenue
High-bandwidth services for both broadband and dedicated connections will continue to grow in importance, and vDSL will be the dominant technology in 2024
Revenue from ICT services will grow consistently as businesses migrate to cloud-based solutions and public cloud providers increase their presence in the country
16.We expect that operators will claim around 16% of the total addressable ICT market in 2024; co-location, security and SaaS will account for the bulk of this revenue
17.Operator profiles
Operator profiles: Telkom (BCX)
Operator profiles: Vodacom (Vodafone)
Operator profiles: MTN
Operator profiles: Liquid Telecom
Operator profiles: Afrihost
Forecast methodology and assumptions
Forecast methodology and assumptions: presentation of results
Forecast methodology and assumptions: market definition
Forecast methodology and assumptions: modelling approach
Forecast methodology and assumptions: mobile services
Forecast methodology and assumptions: fixed services [1]
Forecast methodology and assumptions: fixed services [2]
Forecast methodology and assumptions: ICT services [1]
Forecast methodology and assumptions: ICT services [2]
About the author and Analysys Mason
About the author
Analysys Mason’s consulting and research are uniquely positioned
Research from Analysys Mason
Consulting from Analysys Mason

List of Figures:

Figure 1: Change in telecoms operator retail revenue from businesses by service type, South Africa, 2019–2024
Figure 2: Connections for businesses and CAGRs by type of connection, South Africa, 2019–2024
Figure 3: Telecoms operator retail revenue from businesses in 2019 and CAGR for 2019–2024 by enterprise size, South Africa
Figure 4: Telecoms operator retail revenue from businesses by service type and share of total market, South Africa, 2015–2024
Figure 5: Percentage of operator retail revenue from businesses and CAGR by service type, South Africa
Figure 6: Percentage of retail revenue, employees and business sites for each enterprise size, South Africa, 2019
Figure 7: Telecoms operator retail revenue from businesses by service type and enterprise size, South Africa, 2019 and 2024
Figure 8: Telecoms operator mobile service retail revenue and connections for businesses, South Africa, 2015–2024
Figure 9: Telecoms operator fixed service retail revenue and connections for businesses, South Africa, 2015–2024
Figure 10: Number of business fixed broadband and dedicated connections by type of connection, South Africa, 2015–2024
Figure 11: Addressable ICT services retail revenue from businesses by service type, South Africa, 2015–2024
Figure 12: Addressable ICT services retail revenue from businesses by service type and provider and operators’ share of this revenue by service type, South Africa, 2024
Figure 13: Telkom’s (BCX) business revenue by service, FY2018 and FY2019 (ending 30 March)
Figure 14: Telkom’s (BCX) business revenue by segment, FY2018 and FY2019 (ending 30 March)
Figure 15: Vodacom’s business revenue by service, FY2018 and FY2019 (ending 30 March)
Figure 16: Percentage of enterprises, employees and business sites by enterprise size, South Africa, 2019
Figure 17: Diagram of the forecast modelling approach
Figure 18: Definitions and key drivers for mobile services
Figure 19a: Definitions and key drivers for fixed services
Figure 19b: Definitions and key drivers for fixed services
Figure 20a: Definitions and key drivers for ICT services
Figure 20b: Definitions and key drivers for ICT services

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