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The Mobile services in Sub-Saharan Africa: trends and forecasts 2018–2023

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Date: 16-Aug-2018
No. of pages: 13
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"Mobile data services will drive mobile service revenue growth in Sub-Saharan Africa between 2018 and 2023, but mobile voice will continue to be a key contributor to service revenue."

This report analyses the most important trends and drivers that are affecting mobile telecoms services in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) and examines the impact that these trends will have during the next 5 years. It includes country views for Ghana, Kenya, Nigeria, South Africa, Tanzania and Uganda.

This report provides:


  • a 5-year forecast of mobile KPIs for SSA and for six key countries

  • an in-depth analysis of the trends, drivers and forecast assumptions for each type of mobile service, and for key countries

  • an overview of operator strategies and country-specific topics, which highlights similarities and differences between countries

  • a summary of results, key implications and recommendations for mobile operators.


Geographical coverage

Countries modelled individually


  • Ghana

  • Kenya

  • Nigeria

  • South Africa

  • Tanzania

  • Uganda


Data coverage

Mobile connections


  • Handset, mobile broadband, M2M

  • Prepaid, contract

  • 2G, 3G, 4G, 5G

  • Smartphone, non-smartphone


Mobile revenue


  • Service, retail

  • Prepaid, contract

  • Handset, mobile broadband, IoT

  • Handset voice, messaging, data


Mobile ARPU


  • SIMs, handset

  • Prepaid, contract

  • Handset voice, data


Voice traffic


  • Outgoing minutes, MoU

The Mobile services in Sub-Saharan Africa: trends and forecasts 2018–2023

Table of Contents

5. Executive summary
6. Executive summary
7. Worldwide trends
8. Worldwide: mobile service revenue will increase during the forecast period, but there will be significant differences in terms of revenue growth across regions
9. Regional trends
10. Mobile: mobile data services will drive revenue growth but mobile voice will continue to be a key contributor to service revenue
11. Mobile: 3G will become the predominant technology in SSA, while 4G will account for 16.9% of mobile connections in 2023; 5G is expected to launch in 2020
12. Mobile: penetration will increase in most countries, driven by improved coverage and competition, but growth will slow down due to declining multi-SIM levels
13. Mobile: spending on non-voice services will help to slow down the ARPU decline in most countries in SSA; ARPU in Sudan will increase due to inflation
14. Mobile: SIM penetration growth rates will drop to single digits in most markets despite the sustained demand for mobile services
15. Country-level trends
16. Ghana: non-voice services, including mobile money, will help to boost revenue despite the modest growth in the number of SIMs
17. Kenya: there are solid revenue growth prospects for mobile money and data services. The adoption of 4G will accelerate over the forecast period
18. Nigeria: there is room for mobile revenue growth despite the crowded market and difficult economic conditions
19. South Africa: there will be sustained growth in the mobile market thanks to a strengthening economy and improved network coverage
20. Tanzania: the mobile market offers growth opportunities despite intense competition. Regulator awarded spectrum suitable for 4G in 1H 2018
21. Uganda: mobile revenue growth will be moderate and handset data revenue will be the main contributor to this growth
22. Forecast methodology and assumptions
23. Our forecast model is supported by sound market knowledge
24. Examples of forecast input drivers
25. About the authors and Analysys Mason
26. About the authors
27. About Analysys Mason
28. Research from Analysys Mason
29. Consulting from Analysys Mason

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