The Mobile services in developed Asia-Pacific: trends and forecasts 2016–2021

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Date: 01-Jan-2017
No. of pages: 34
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"Mobile penetration is high in developed Asia–Pacific, thanks to a well-developed and advanced infrastructure; the high penetration of mobile apps and OTT services in the region is driving up demand for mobile data."

Total telecoms retail revenue in developed Asia–Pacific (DVAP) will grow at a CAGR of 1.5% between 2015 and 2021. Revenue from mobile handset data will be the main contributor to this growth, and its share of total telecoms retail revenue will grow steadily to reach 51% in 2021

This report and associated data annex provide:


  • commentary and trend analysis to support our 5-year forecast for developed Asia–Pacific

  • an outlook for technology improvements and infrastructure developments

  • forecasts that are informed by on-the-ground market experts from our Research and Consulting divisions, and external interviews.


Geographical coverage

Countries modelled individually


  • Australia

  • Hong Kong

  • Japan

  • Singapore

  • South Korea

  • Taiwan

  • Detailed country commentary

  • Australia

  • Hong Kong

  • Singapore

  • South Korea


Data coverage

Mobile connections


  • Handset, mobile broadband, M2M

  • Prepaid, contract

  • 2G, 3G, 4G (LTE)

  • Smartphone, non-smartphone


Mobile revenue


  • Service, retail

  • Prepaid, contract

  • Handset, mobile broadband, M2M

  • Handset voice, messaging, data


Mobile ARPU


  • SIMS, handset

  • Prepaid, contract

  • Handset voice, data


Voice traffic


  • Outgoing minutes, MoU

The Mobile services in developed Asia-Pacific: trends and forecasts 2016–2021

Table of Contents

5.Executive summary
6.Executive summary
7.Worldwide trends
8.Worldwide: Revenue will increase in the mobile and fixed segments driven by infrastructure investments in network roll-out
9.Mobile penetration: Demand for, and the fast pace of take-up of, mobile in EMAP and SSA will boost global penetration
10.Smartphones and 4G/5G: Smartphones will account for 69% of handsets worldwide, and take-up will be highest in NA and WE
11.Mobile ARPU: The high level of competition and substitution by OTT services will continue to put downward pressure on ARPU
12.Regional trends
13.DVAP: Mobile handset data revenue increase will be crucial to telecoms revenue growth in forecast period
14.Mobile penetration: SIM population penetration rates across all DVAP countries will stabilise at an average of 123%
15.Mobile connections: 2G is in the process of being phased out; 4G and 5G will account for 95% of all mobile connections in 2021
16.Geographical coverage: By 2021, 4G/5G will account for 90% of mobile connections; FTTB household penetration will reach 93%
17.Smartphones and 4G/5G: increasing usage of apps and the migration to 4G/5G will increase smartphone penetration
18.Mobile ARPU: Mobile ARPU will maintain steady growth in DVAP, reaching USD35 per month by the end of the forecast period
19.DVAP –mobile: 4G/5G technology will be used by 95% of all mobile connections in 2021
20.Country-level trends
21.Australia: Infrastructure developments will help with 4G adoption and retail revenue growth
22.Hong Kong: Total service revenue will decline to USD3.7 billion, due to drops in mobile penetration, despite service upgrades
23.Singapore: The entry of a fourth mobile operator is expected to increase competition in the mobile market
24.South Korea: Speed upgrades and new tariff plans will lead to service revenue growth during the forecast period
25.Forecast methodology and assumptions
26.We have a disciplined process of forecasting; our on-the-ground analysts and consultants collaborate closely to assess market dynamics
27.Our forecasts are informed by primary and secondary research for data collection, a rigorous methodology and our analysis of external drivers
28.A robust and comparable set of historical data is the starting point for our forecasts; this involves three main activities
29.About the authors and Analysys Mason
30.About the authors
31.About Analysys Mason
32.Research from Analysys Mason
33.Consulting from Analysys Mason

List of Figures

Figure 1: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), developed Asia–Pacific, 2011–2021
Figure 2: Telecoms retail revenue growth by type and country, worldwide, 2015–2021
Figure 3: Active mobile SIM penetration by country (excluding IoT), worldwide, 2011–2021
Figure 4: Smartphones as a percentage of handsets, and 4G/5G’s share of total connections (excluding IoT), worldwide, 2015 and 2021
Figure 5: Mobile ARPU (excluding IoT) by region and worldwide, 2011–2021
Figure 6: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), developed Asia–Pacific, 2011–2021
Figure 7: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and growth rates, developed Asia–Pacific, 2015–2021
Figure 8: Connections by type, and growth rates, developed Asia–Pacific, 2015–2021
Figure 9: Active mobile SIM penetration by country (excluding IoT), developed Asia–Pacific, 2011–2021
Figure 10: Mobile connections by technology generation (excluding IoT), and 3G, 4G and 5G’s share of connections, developed Asia–Pacific, 2011–2021
Figure 11: Mobile connections by technology generation and NGA’s share of fixed broadband connections, by country, developed Asia–Pacific, 2021
Figure 12: Smartphones as a percentage of handsets, and 4G/5G’s share of total connections (excluding IoT), developed Asia–Pacific, 2015 and 2021
Figure 13: Mobile ARPU by country, developed Asia–Pacific, 2011–2021
Figure 14: Mobile, smartphone and 4G/5G penetration rates, developed Asia–Pacific, 2011–2021
Figure 15: Mobile ARPU by type, and mobile ARPU, developed Asia–Pacific, 2011–20211
Figure 16: Summary of key mobile market drivers and assumptions, developed Asia–Pacific
Figure 17: Total service revenue, data revenue and CAGR, Australia, 2015–2021
Figure 18: Total service revenue, data revenue and CAGR, Hong Kong, 2015–2021
Figure 19: Total service revenue, data revenue and CAGR, Singapore, 2015–2021
Figure 20: Total service revenue, data revenue and CAGR, South Korea, 2015–2021

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