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The Mobile capex: worldwide trends and forecasts 2017–2025

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Date: 20-Jun-2019
No. of pages: 17
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"Mobile capex will not grow as quickly as previously anticipated, but it will reach USD175.7 billion by 2025 (with a CAGR of 4% during 2017–2022)."

This is Analysys Mason’s second comprehensive forecast of every aspect of mobile capex. This report provides an invaluable analysis of the key capex trends for operators, vendors and investors, at a time when operators have become more cautious about their wireless spending than previously anticipated.

The report provides:


  • a detailed breakdown of mobile operator capex to 2025, well into the second wave of 5G deployments

  • an in-depth view of how 5G, as well as related developments such as virtualisation and automation, will affect patterns of investment

  • an in-depth look at vendor implications and the effect of open-source solutions on the supply chain

  • capex forecasts broken down into eight geographic regions plus China, and six categories of spending (RAN, core, IT, infrastructure, transformation and non-network assets).

The Mobile capex: worldwide trends and forecasts 2017–2025

Table of Contents:

6.Worldwide trends
Mobile capex will grow at a slower pace than previously forecasted until 2021, but growth will then accelerate as 5G is deployed worldwide
Mobile capex will continue to grow at a slow pace; investments in 5G RAN will only overtake those in 4G in 2023
MNOs in developed regions will gradually deploy 5G in urban areas, but those in developing regions will wait until the technology matures further and costs stabilise
5G deployments will be the main driver of RAN capex growth in North America and developed Asia–Pacific until 2021
Segments other than RAN, such as physical infrastructure, transport and core, will also be high capex growth areas in the 5G era
5G roll-outs are not as closely aligned to digital investments as previously expected; 5G capex growth will therefore be slower than anticipated until 2023
Vendor implications
RAN vendors are well-positioned to benefit from delivering services beyond hardware to MNOs
A new supply chain will depress capex growth if it is fully embraced by MNOs for 5G
Western Europe
MNOs in WE will start spending on 5G from 2019 as major 4G upgrades come to an end; they will continue to invest in R&D activities to ensure regional competitiveness
Central and Eastern Europe
The 4G market in CEE is competitive and subscribers are moving to higher plans as their demands for data services grow
20.Middle East and North Africa
Some MNOs in MENA will launch full 5G services in 2019, while others will need to ensure that their 4G networks are in line with the demands of the customer base
Sub-Saharan Africa
The population in SSA is diverse and young, and MNOs are encouraging data consumption through better networks and device subsidies
Emerging Asia–Pacific
In a prepaid region such as EMAP, MNOs will wait for virtualisation technology to mature and become commercial before migrating to 5G
There is strong interest in 5G investments in China and this is reflected in continued high spending
Developed Asia–Pacific
DVAP has the second highest ARPU in the world after NA, meaning that MNOs can continue to invest high levels of capex in order to deploy new platforms early
North America
MNOs in NA are the pioneers of 5G and will continue to invest in high-capacity networks to meet customer and competition demands
Latin America
MNOs in LATAM will continue to build 4G networks in the near term, but low ARPU and a large number of unconnected people remain challenges
Forecast methodology and assumptions
Geographical scope: forecasts are provided for 64 countries in 8 regions
Definitions
36.About the author and Analysys Mason
About the author
Analysys Mason’s consulting and research are uniquely positioned
Research from Analysys Mason
Consulting from Analysys Mason

List of Figures:

Figure 1: Current and previous mobile capex forecast, worldwide, 2016–2025
Figure 2: Mobile capex, by network segment, worldwide, 2017–2025
Figure 3: RAN capex, split by 5G and other radio technologies, worldwide, 2017–2025
Figure 4: Mobile capex, by region, worldwide, 2017–2025
Figure 5: RAN capex, by region, worldwide, 2017–2025
Figure 6: Mobile capex allocated to 5G, by segment, worldwide, 2017–2025
Figure 7: Share of mobile network capex allocated to virtualised and conventional RAN, core and transport, worldwide, 2021
Figure 8: Share of mobile network capex allocated to virtualised and conventional RAN, core and transport, worldwide, 2021
Figure 9: Percentage of capex used for RAN hardware and other services, worldwide, 2018 and 2025
Figure 10: Macrocell capex for traditional and open RAN and sites, worldwide, 2017 and 2025
Figure 11: Capex forecast, by equipment category, Western Europe, 2017–2025
Figure 12: RAN capex, by technology, Western Europe, 2017–2025
Figure 13: Capex forecast, by equipment category, Central and Eastern Europe, 2017–2025
Figure 14: RAN capex, by technology, Central and Eastern Europe, 2017–2025
Figure 15: Capex forecast, by equipment category, Middle East and North Africa, 2017–2025
Figure 16: RAN capex, by technology, Middle East and North Africa, 2017–2025
Figure 17: Capex forecast, by equipment category, Sub-Saharan Africa, 2017–2025
Figure 18: RAN capex, by technology, Sub-Saharan Africa, 2017–2025
Figure 19: Capex forecast, by equipment category, emerging Asia–Pacific, 2017–2025
Figure 20: RAN capex, by technology, emerging Asia–Pacific, 2017–2025
Figure 21: Capex forecast, by equipment category, China, 2017–2025
Figure 22: RAN capex, by technology, China, 2017-2025
Figure 23: Capex forecast, by equipment category, developed Asia–Pacific, 2017–2025
Figure 24: RAN capex, by technology, developed Asia–Pacific, 2017–2025
Figure 25: Capex forecast, by equipment category, North America, 2017–2025
Figure 26: RAN capex, by technology, North America, 2017–2025
Figure 27: Capex forecast, by equipment category, Latin America, 2017–2025
Figure 28: RAN capex, by technology, Latin America, 2017–2025
Figure 29: Countries covered in this report, by region
Figure 30: Definitions used in this report

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