The Middle East and North Africa telecoms market: trends and forecasts 2019-2024

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Date: 19-Dec-2019
No. of pages: 43
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"Fixed broadband revenue in MENA will increase at a CAGR of 4.6% during the forecast period, driven by the fast adoption of NGA-based services and limited competition in the fixed segment."

The telecoms market revenue in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) will increase at a CAGR of 1.4% between 2018 and 2024, driven by the growing adoption of fixed broadband and mobile data services across the region.

This report and associated data annex provide:


  • a 5-year forecast of 180 mobile and fixed KPIs for the MENA region as a whole and 12 key countries

  • an in-depth analysis of the trends, drivers and forecast assumptions for each type of mobile and fixed service, and for key countries

  • an overview of operator strategies and country-specific topics, in order to highlight similarities and differences by means of a cross-country comparison

  • a summary of results, key implications and recommendations for mobile and fixed operators.


Coverage

Geographical coverage

Region modelled


  • Middle East and North Africa (MENA)


Countries modelled individually


  • Algeria

  • Egypt

  • Iran

  • Iraq

  • Israel

  • Kuwait

  • Morocco

  • Oman

  • Qatar

  • Saudi Arabia

  • Tunisia

  • United Arab Emirates (UAE)


Key performance indicators

Connections

Mobile


  • Handset, mobile broadband, IoT

  • Prepaid, contract

  • 2G, 3G, 4G, 5G

  • Smartphone,

  • non-smartphone


Fixed


  • Voice, broadband, IPTV, dial-up

  • Narrowband voice, VoBB

  • DSL, FTTP/B, cable, BFWA, 5G, other


Fixed and mobile voice traffic


  • Outgoing minutes, MoU


Revenue

Mobile


  • Service, retail

  • Prepaid, contract

  • Handset, mobile broadband, IoT

  • Handset voice, messaging, data


Fixed


  • Service, retail

  • Voice, broadband, IPTV, dial-up, business services

  • DSL, FTTP/B, cable, BFWA, other


Mobile ARPU


  • SIMs, handset

  • Prepaid, contract

  • Handset voice, data

The Middle East and North Africa telecoms market: trends and forecasts 2019-2024

Table of Contents

8.Executive summary and recommendations
Telecoms service revenue in the Middle East and North Africa will reach USD72 billion by 2024
Monetising high-speed internet and mobile data access will be crucial to achieve telecoms retail revenue growth in MENA
Geographical coverage: NGA and 4G/5G penetration will be the highest in GCC countries and in Israel
Key trends, drivers and assumptions for the mobile and fixed markets
Key recommendations for telecoms operators
Regional forecasts and cross-country comparison
Market context: the average spend per capita has declined, mainly due to increased competition in the GCC region
Key mergers, acquisitions and market entries
Key drivers at a glance for each country in the Middle East and North Africa
Market overview: the fast adoption of fixed broadband and mobile data services will help telecoms operators to maintain service revenue growth
Mobile: mobile services will account for most of the telecoms revenue in the region, driven by the growing demand for data and the fast migration from 3G to 4G
Mobile: population service penetration will remain flat because most of the mature markets have reached saturation point
Mobile: ARPU levels will be highly dependent on GDP per capita, competition levels and the penetration of data services
Mobile: the total mobile revenue will continue to increase due to the demand for data and the introduction of faster networks such as LTE and 5G
23.Fixed: the increase in household broadband penetration will be boosted by NGA network roll-outs and a growing demand for fixed data connectivity
24.Fixed: broadband penetration will increase in all countries in MENA, but the gap between the most and least penetrated countries will widen
Fixed: increasing competitiveness will lead to a decline in ASPU, but the demand for higher-speed services and bundling will lead to fixed broadband revenue growth
Fixed: broadband penetration will continue to increase across the region and VDSL will become the predominant access technology by 2024
Specialist business services: revenue growth will be fuelled by increased spending on mobile data and a growing demand for high-bandwidth dedicated connections
IoT: the total IoT value chain revenue in MENA will grow to over USD6.7 billion by 2024
Pay TV: revenue for traditional pay TV and operator-delivered OTT services will continue to grow in MENA
Individual country forecasts
Egypt: there are strong revenue growth prospects in both the fixed and mobile markets due to growing demand and infrastructure investments
Egypt: VDSL will be the dominant fixed broadband technology in 2024, supported by the growing demand for high-speed connectivity services
Egypt: the increase in fixed broadband revenue will be the main contributor to telecoms revenue growth during the forecast period
Egypt: forecast changes
Kuwait: investments in fixed infrastructure should provide a basis for future growth in fixed broadband take-up and revenue
Kuwait: fibre optics will become the dominant fixed broadband technology in Kuwait by 2024
37.Kuwait: fixed market revenue growth will be driven by the expanding fibre-optic network footprint and encouraging service take-up
Kuwait: forecast changes
Oman: the total market revenue will increase thanks to the growth of the fixed broadband segment and the slow recovery of the mobile market
Oman: operators will increasingly focus on monetising their NGA investments and driving service take-up as network penetration increases
Oman: a new mobile entrant will increase competition in the mobile market, and the fixed broadband segment will benefit from NGA network roll-outs
Oman: forecast changes
Qatar: the overall revenue outlook remains positive, driven by fixed broadband and mobile handset data revenue growth
Qatar: operators in the country aim to lead in 5G coverage in the region and will focus on the quality of service for data users
Qatar: the demand for high-speed connectivity will drive both fixed broadband and mobile data revenue growth
Qatar: forecast changes
Saudi Arabia: telecoms revenue will grow due to improving economic indicators and the forthcoming launch of 5G services
Saudi Arabia: the growing demand for data, stimulated by the increasing popularity of OTT services, will offset the decline in legacy mobile revenue
Saudi Arabia: mobile service revenue will be boosted by the launch of 5G technology and the adoption of service-based tariffs
Saudi Arabia: forecast changes
UAE: telecoms revenue will increase to AED36.3 billion by 2024, driven mainly by the demand for high-speed broadband connections
52.UAE: good access to fibre services and the recent launch of 5G will help operators to grow their fixed and mobile revenue in the next 5 years
UAE: fixed broadband and mobile data revenue will drive telecoms revenue growth
UAE: forecast changes
Methodology
Our forecast model is supported by sound market knowledge
Examples of forecast input drivers
Key drivers at a glance table: methodology [1]
Key drivers at a glance table: methodology [2]
About the authors and Analysys Mason
About the authors
About the authors
Analysys Mason’s consulting and research are uniquely positioned
Research from Analysys Mason
Consulting from Analysys Mason

List of Figures:

Figure 1: Telecoms and pay-TV retail revenue, by type, and total service revenue, Middle East and North Africa, 2014–2024
Figure 2: Growth in telecoms retail revenue and nominal GDP by country, Middle East and North Africa, 2018–2024
Figure 3: 4G/5G share of mobile connections and NGA share of fixed broadband connections by country, Middle East and North Africa, 2018 and 2024
Figure 4: Summary of key trends, drivers and assumptions for the Middle East and North Africa
Figure 5: Metrics for the 12 countries modelled individually in the Middle East and North Africa, 2018
Figure 6: Recent and upcoming market structure changes in the Middle East and North Africa
Figure 7: Major forecast drivers: current situation (2018) and future trajectory (2019–2024), by country, Middle East and North Africa
Figure 8: Total fixed and mobile telecoms service revenue, Middle East and North Africa (USD billion), 2014–2024
Figure 9: Mobile connections by type, Middle East and North Africa (million), 2014–2024
Figure 10: Telecoms retail revenue and growth rate by service type, Middle East and North Africa, 2014–2024
Figure 11: Fixed connections by type, Middle East and North Africa (million), 2014–2024
Figure 12: Mobile connections by generation, Middle East and North Africa (million), 2014–2024
Figure 13: Mobile ARPU by type, Middle East and North Africa (USD per month), 2014–2024
Figure 14: Contract share of mobile connections (excluding IoT), Middle East and North Africa, 2014–2024
Figure 15: Mobile data traffic per connection, Middle East and North Africa (MB per month), 2014–2024
Figure 16a: Mobile penetration by country, Middle East and North Africa, 2014–2024
Figure 16b: Mobile penetration by country, Middle East and North Africa, 2014–2024
Figure 17a: Mobile ARPU by country, Middle East and North Africa, 2014–2024
Figure 17b: Mobile ARPU by country, Middle East and North Africa, 2014–2024
Figure 18: Broadband connections by technology, Middle East and North Africa (million), 2014–2024
Figure 19: Fixed retail revenue by service, Middle East and North Africa (USD billion), 2014–2024
Figure 20: NGA broadband household penetration and NGA share of broadband connections, Middle East and North Africa, 2014–2024
Figure 21: Fixed Internet traffic per broadband connection, Middle East and North Africa (GB per month), 2014–2024
Figure 22a: Fixed broadband household penetration by country, Middle East and North Africa, 2014–2024
Figure 22b: Fixed broadband household penetration by country, Middle East and North Africa, 2014–2024
Figure 23a: Fixed broadband access ASPU by country, Middle East and North Africa, 2014–2024
Figure 23b: Fixed broadband access ASPU by country, Middle East and North Africa, 2014–2024
Figure 24: Total market revenue from specialist business services, Middle East and North Africa, 2014–2024
Figure 25: Total IoT value chain revenue by sector, Middle East and North Africa, 2014–2024
Figure 26: Retail revenue from pay TV, Middle East and North Africa, 2014–2024
Figure 27: Total fixed and mobile telecoms service revenue, Egypt (EGP billion), 2014–2024
Figure 28: Mobile connections by type, Egypt (million), 2014–2024
Figure 29: Telecoms retail revenue and growth rate by service type, Egypt, 2014–2024
Figure 30: Fixed connections by type, Egypt (million), 2014–2024
Figure 31: 4G, 5G and contract share of mobile connections, Egypt, 2014–2024
Figure 32: Mobile ARPU, fixed voice ASPU and fixed broadband ASPU, Egypt (EGP per month), 2014–2024
Figure 33: Mobile data traffic per connection, Egypt (MB per month), 2014–2024
Figure 34: Broadband connections by technology, Egypt (million), 2014–2024
Figure 35: Total telecoms service revenue – current and previous forecasts, Egypt, 2014–2024
Figure 36: Total fixed and mobile telecoms service revenue, Kuwait (KWD million), 2014–2024
Figure 37: Mobile connections by type, Kuwait (million), 2014–2024
Figure 38: Telecoms retail revenue and growth rate by service type, Kuwait, 2014–2024
Figure 39: Fixed connections by type, Kuwait (thousand), 2014–2024
Figure 40: 4G, 5G and contract share of mobile connections, Kuwait, 2014–2024
Figure 41: Mobile ARPU, fixed voice ASPU and fixed broadband ASPU, Kuwait (KWD per month), 2014–2024
Figure 42: Mobile data traffic per connection, Kuwait (MB per month), 2014–2024
Figure 43: Broadband connections by technology, Kuwait (thousand), 2014–2024
Figure 44: Total telecoms service revenue – current and previous forecasts, Kuwait, 2014–2024
Figure 45: Total fixed and mobile telecoms service revenue, Oman (OMR million), 2014–2024
Figure 46: Mobile connections by type, Oman (million), 2014–2024
Figure 47: Telecoms retail revenue and growth rate by service type, Oman, 2014–2024
Figure 48: Fixed connections by type, Oman (thousand), 2014–2024
Figure 49: 4G, 5G and contract share of mobile connections, Oman, 2014–2024
Figure 50: Mobile ARPU, fixed voice ASPU and fixed broadband ASPU, Oman (OMR per month), 2014–2024
Figure 51: Mobile data traffic per connection, Oman (MB per month), 2014–2024
Figure 52: Broadband connections by technology, Oman (thousand), 2014–2024
Figure 53: Total telecoms service revenue – current and previous forecasts, Oman, 2014–2024
Figure 54: Total fixed and mobile telecoms service revenue, Qatar (QAR billion), 2014–2024
Figure 55: Mobile connections by type, Qatar (million), 2014–2024
Figure 56: Telecoms retail revenue and growth rate by service type, Qatar, 2014–2024
Figure 57: Fixed connections by type, Qatar (thousand), 2014–2024
Figure 58: 4G, 5G and contract share of mobile connections, Qatar, 2014–2024
Figure 59: Mobile ARPU, fixed voice ASPU and fixed broadband ASPU, Qatar (QAR per month), 2014–2024
Figure 60: Mobile data traffic per connection, Qatar (MB per month), 2014–2024
Figure 61: Broadband connections by technology, Qatar (thousand), 2014–2024
Figure 62: Total telecoms service revenue – current and previous forecasts, Qatar, 2014–2024
Figure 63: Total fixed and mobile telecoms service revenue, Saudi Arabia (SAR billion), 2014–2024
Figure 64: Mobile connections by type, Saudi Arabia (million), 2014–2024
Figure 65: Telecoms retail revenue and growth rate by service type, Saudi Arabia, 2014–2024
Figure 66: Fixed connections by type, Saudi Arabia (million), 2014–2024
Figure 67: 4G, 5G and contract share of mobile connections, Saudi Arabia, 2014–2024
Figure 68: Mobile ARPU, fixed voice ASPU and fixed broadband ASPU, Saudi Arabia (SAR per month), 2014–2024
Figure 69: Mobile data traffic per connection, Saudi Arabia (MB per month), 2014–2024
Figure 70: Broadband connections by technology, Saudi Arabia (million), 2014–2024
Figure 71: Total telecoms service revenue – current and previous forecasts, Saudi Arabia, 2014–2024
Figure 72: Total fixed and mobile telecoms service revenue, UAE (AED billion), 2014–2024
Figure 73: Mobile connections by type, UAE (million), 2014–2024
Figure 74: Telecoms retail revenue and growth rate by service type, UAE, 2014–2024
Figure 75: Fixed connections by type, UAE (million), 2014–2024
Figure 76: 4G, 5G and contract share of mobile connections, UAE, 2014–2024
Figure 77: Mobile ARPU, fixed voice ASPU and fixed broadband ASPU, UAE (AED per month), 2014–2024
Figure 78: Mobile data traffic per connection, UAE (MB per month), 2014–2024
Figure 79: Broadband connections by technology, UAE (million), 2014–2024
Figure 80: Total telecoms service revenue – current and previous forecasts, UAE, 2014–2024
Figure 81a: Methodology for attributing scores to each element in the key drivers table (current and future) and impact of high scores
Figure 81b: Methodology for attributing scores to each element in the key drivers table (current and future) and impact of high scores

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