The Middle East and North Africa telecoms market: trends and forecasts 2017–2022 based on 2Q 2017 data
Table of contents:
9.Executive summary
10.The telecoms service market in MENA will grow to USD72.1 billion in 2022, amidst increased competition and challenging operating conditions
11.Telecoms retail revenue will increase by USD2.6 billion during 2017–2022, primarily driven by mobile data and fixed broadband services
12.Geographical coverage: We model 12 telecoms markets, which will account for 91.2% of telecoms service revenue in MENA in 2022
13.Key trends, drivers and assumptions for the mobile and fixed markets in the Middle East and North Africa
14.Key recommendations for telecoms operators
15.Regional forecasts and cross-country comparison
16.Market context: The 12 modelled countries account for 83.3% of total population and 92.0% of telecoms service revenue in MENA in 2017
17.Key mergers, acquisitions, and market entries
18.Key drivers at a glance for each Middle East and North Africa market
19.MENA: Mobile and fixed data services will drive revenue growth in the region, but mobile voice revenue will continue to dominate
20.MENA mobile: LTE take-up is accelerating in several markets; this is contributing to traffic growth, but also slowing down ARPU drop
21.MENA mobile: Maturing markets and enforced SIM registration policies have led to a contraction of the subscriber base in some countries
22.MENA mobile: Growth in demand for data services and migration to postpaid connections will help to reduce the rate of decline of ARPU
23.MENA mobile: Data revenue will help offset the slowdown in revenue growth for legacy services
24.MENA fixed: Broadband market penetration will grow in most countries driven by demand and new infrastructure investments
25.MENA fixed: Broadband penetration will grow in all modelled countries, supported by competition and national broadband plans
26.MENA fixed: Speed upgrades and increased penetration of fibre services will help to ensure that broadband average revenue per line remains high
27.MENA fixed: The broadband market will grow steadily, while voice revenue will decline due to declining usage and mobile competition
28.Business services: Operator revenue from large enterprises will rise as demand grows for data connectivity, IoT and other business services
29.IoT: The IoT market will generate just over USD7.0 billion in revenue in 2022 supported by strong growth in M2M connections
30.Pay TV: The number of IPTV subscribers will increase; paid-for OTT-to-the-TV penetration will only be significant in certain countries
31.Individual country forecasts
32.Iran: The market has potential for further growth despite a volatile political situation and the persistence of economic sanctions
33.Iran: 4G adoption is expected to accelerate, while investment in fibre and TD-LTE will help improve service quality and coverage
34.Iran: 4G services, and MVNO entry combined with investment in fixed broadband infrastructure, will underpin future growth
35.Iran: We project a more-positive outlook for business services revenue, fixed broadband and mobile penetration growth
36.Kuwait: The market heavily contracted in 2017 due to mobile market saturation and lack of development of the fixed segment
37.Kuwait: Strong demand for 4G services will help to maintain a high mobile ARPU over the forecast period
38.Kuwait: Mobile market growth will be hampered by market saturation; the fixed market needs liberalisation and investment
39.Kuwait: A more conservative outlook for the mobile market due to its severe contraction in 2017
40.Oman: Revenue will grow strongly despite increasingly challenging market conditions and regulatory pressures
41.Oman: The entry of a third entrant in 2017 has been delayed by a few months, resulting in a revision of mobile connections growth
42.Oman: Uncertainty over the identity of the third entrant continues, while the outlook for fixed broadband remains positive
43.Oman: We have revised our business services revenue and mobile market growth outlook
44.Qatar: Economic diversification and infrastructure projects should drive demand for telecoms services in the long term
45.Qatar: The market appears to withstand diplomatic and economic sanctions with a largely positive outlook for continued growth
46.Qatar: The market still has potential for growth, provided that the regional political situation does not deteriorate further
47.Qatar: We have revised our mobile broadband outlook and incorporated Ooredoo Qatar’s ‘other’ revenue
48.Saudi Arabia: Data from fixed and mobile will help to offset the continued contraction of the mobile subscriber base
49.Saudi Arabia: Demand for data services will drive growth of 4G and fixed broadband services; fixed voice services remain strong
50.Saudi Arabia: The market will be driven by data and supported by ambitious economic reforms to increase broadband penetration
51.Saudi Arabia: Our revised forecast is based on the mobile market contraction in 2017 and stronger performance for fixed voice
52.UAE: We expect a positive overall outlook for revenue growth, despite increased market competition in fixed and mobile markets
53.UAE: There will be steady growth, driven by a healthy economy and operators’ investment in infrastructure and digital initiatives
54.UAE: Investment in infrastructure and capabilities will help operators capture opportunities beyond broadband connectivity
55.UAE: We have changed the approach used to model the fixed market and revised the forecast for fixed voice based on recent data
56.Methodology
57.Our forecast model is supported by sound market knowledge
58.Examples of forecast input drivers
59.Key drivers at a glance table: methodology [1]
60.Key drivers at a glance table: methodology [2]
61.About the authors and Analysys Mason About the author
62.About the authors
63.Analysys Mason’s consulting and research are uniquely positioned
64.Research from Analysys Mason
65.Consulting from Analysys Mason
List of Figures:
Figure 1: Telecoms and pay-TV retail revenue by service type and total service revenue, Middle East and North Africa, 2012–2022
Figure 2: Telecoms retail revenue and nominal GDP growth by country, Middle East and North Africa, 2016–2022
Figure 3: 4G/5G share of mobile connections and next-generation access (NGA) share of fixed broadband connections by country, Middle East and North Africa, 2016 and 2022
Figure 4: Summary of key trends, drivers and assumptions for Middle East and North Africa
Figure 5: Metrics for the 12 countries modelled individually in Middle East and North Africa, 2016
Figure 6: Recent and upcoming market structure changes in the Middle East and North Africa
Figure 7: Major forecast drivers: current situation (2016) and future trajectory (2017–2022), by country, Middle East and North Africa
Figure 8: Total fixed and mobile telecoms service revenue, Middle East and North Africa (USD billion), 2012–2022
Figure 9: Mobile connections by type, Middle East and North Africa (million), 2012–2022
Figure 10: Telecoms retail revenue and growth rate by service type, Middle East and North Africa, 2012–2022
Figure 11: Fixed connections by type, Middle East and North Africa (million), 2012–2022
Figure 12: Mobile connections by generation, Middle East and North Africa (million), 2012–2022
Figure 13: Mobile ARPU by type, Middle East and North Africa (USD per month), 2012–2022
Figure 14: Contract share of mobile connections (excluding IoT), Middle East and North Africa, 2012–2022
Figure 15: Mobile data traffic per connection, Middle East and North Africa (MB per month), 2012–2022
Figure 16a: Mobile penetration by country, Middle East and North Africa, 2012–2022
Figure 16b: Mobile penetration by country, Middle East and North Africa, 2012–2022
Figure 17a: Mobile ARPU by country, Middle East and North Africa, 2012–2022
Figure 17b: Mobile ARPU by country, Middle East and North Africa, 2012–2022
Figure 18: Broadband connections by technology, Middle East and North Africa (million), 2012–2022
Figure 19: Fixed retail revenue by service, Middle East and North Africa (USD billion), 2012–2022
Figure 20: NGA broadband household penetration and NGA share of broadband connections, Middle East and North Africa, 2012–2022
Figure 21: Fixed Internet traffic per broadband connection, Middle East and North Africa (MB per month), 2012–2022
Figure 22a: Fixed broadband household penetration by country, Middle East and North Africa, 2012–2022
Figure 22b: Fixed broadband household penetration by country, Middle East and North Africa, 2012–2022
Figure 23a: Fixed broadband access ASPU by country, Middle East and North Africa, 2012–2022
Figure 23b: Fixed broadband access ASPU by country, Middle East and North Africa, 2012–2022
Figure 24: Total market revenue from business services, Middle East and North Africa, 2012–2022
Figure 25: Total IoT value chain revenue by sector, Middle East and North Africa, 2013–2022
Figure 26: Retail revenue from pay-TV, Middle East and North Africa, 2013–2022
Figure 27: Total fixed and mobile telecoms service revenue, Iran (IRR trillion), 2012–2022
Figure 28: Mobile connections by type, Iran (million), 2012–2022
Figure 29: Telecoms retail revenue and growth rate by service type, Iran, 2012–2022
Figure 30: Fixed connections by type, Iran (million), 2012–2022
Figure 31: 4G and contract share of mobile connections, Iran, 2012–2022
Figure 32: Mobile ARPU, fixed voice ASPU and fixed broadband ASPU, Iran (IRR thousand per month), 2012–2022
Figure 33: Mobile data traffic per connection, Iran (MB per month), 2012–2022
Figure 34: Broadband connections by technology, Iran (million), 2012–2022
Figure 35: Total telecoms service revenue – current and previous forecasts, Iran, 2012–2022
Figure 36: Total fixed and mobile telecoms service revenue, Kuwait (KWD million), 2012–2022
Figure 37: Mobile connections by type, Kuwait (million), 2012–2022
Figure 38: Telecoms retail revenue and growth rate by service type, Kuwait, 2012–2022
Figure 39: Fixed connections by type, Kuwait (thousand), 2012–2022
Figure 40: 4G, 5G and contract share of mobile connections, Kuwait, 2012–2022
Figure 41: Mobile ARPU, fixed voice ASPU and fixed broadband ASPU, Kuwait (KWD per month), 2012–2022
Figure 42: Mobile data traffic per connection, Kuwait (MB per month), 2012–2022
Figure 43: Broadband connections by technology, Kuwait (thousand), 2012–2022
Figure 44: Total telecoms service revenue – current and previous forecasts, Kuwait, 2012–2022
Figure 45: Total fixed and mobile telecoms service revenue, Oman (OMR million), 2012–2022
Figure 46: Mobile connections by type, Oman (million), 2012–2022
Figure 47: Telecoms retail revenue and growth rate by service type, Oman, 2012–2022
Figure 48: Fixed connections by type, Oman (thousand), 2012–2022
Figure 49: 4G, 5G and contract share of mobile connections, Kuwait, 2012–2022
Figure 50: Mobile ARPU, fixed voice ASPU and fixed broadband ASPU, Oman (OMR per month), 2012–2022
Figure 51: Mobile data traffic per connection, Oman (MB per month), 2012–2022
Figure 52: Broadband connections by technology, Oman (thousand), 2012–2022
Figure 53: Total telecoms service revenue – current and previous forecasts, Oman, 2012–2022
Figure 54: Total fixed and mobile telecoms service revenue, Qatar (QAR billion), 2012–2022
Figure 55: Mobile connections by type, Qatar (million), 2012–2022
Figure 56: Telecoms retail revenue and growth rate by service type, Qatar, 2012–2022
Figure 57: Fixed connections by type, Qatar (thousand), 2012–2022
Figure 58: 4G, 5G and contract share of mobile connections, Qatar, 2012–2022
Figure 59: Mobile ARPU, fixed voice ASPU and fixed broadband ASPU, Qatar (QAR per month), 2012–2022
Figure 60: Mobile data traffic per connection, Qatar (MB per month), 2012–2022
Figure 61: Broadband connections by technology, Qatar (thousand), 2012–2022
Figure 62: Total telecoms service revenue – current and previous forecasts, Qatar, 2012–2022
Figure 63: Total fixed and mobile telecoms service revenue, Saudi Arabia (SAR billion), 2012–2022
Figure 64: Mobile connections by type, Saudi Arabia (million), 2012–2022
Figure 65: Telecoms retail revenue and growth rate by service type, Saudi Arabia, 2012–2022
Figure 66: Fixed connections by type, Saudi Arabia (million), 2012–2022
Figure 67: 4G, 5G and contract share of mobile connections, Saudi Arabia, 2012–2022
Figure 68: Mobile ARPU, fixed voice ASPU and fixed broadband ASPU, Saudi Arabia (SAR per month), 2012–2022
Figure 69: Mobile data traffic per connection, Saudi Arabia (MB per month), 2012–2022
Figure 70: Broadband connections by technology, Saudi Arabia (million), 2012–2022
Figure 71: Total telecoms service revenue – current and previous forecasts, Saudi Arabia, 2012–2022
Figure 72: Total fixed and mobile telecoms service revenue, UAE (AED billion), 2012–2022
Figure 73: Mobile connections by type, UAE (million), 2012–2022
Figure 74: Telecoms retail revenue and growth rate by service type, UAE, 2012–2022
Figure 75: Fixed connections by type, UAE (million), 2012–2022
Figure 76: 4G, 5G and contract share of mobile connections, UAE, 2012–2022
Figure 77: Mobile ARPU, fixed voice ASPU and fixed broadband ASPU, UAE (AED per month), 2012–2022
Figure 78: Mobile data traffic per connection, UAE (MB per month), 2012–2022
Figure 79: Broadband connections by technology, UAE (million), 2012–2022
Figure 80: Total telecoms service revenue – current and previous forecasts, UAE, 2012–2022
Figure 81a: Methodology for attributing scores to each element in the key drivers table (current and future) and impact of high scores
Figure 81b: Methodology for attributing scores to each element in the key drivers table (current and future) and impact of high scores
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