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The Latin America telecoms market: trends and forecasts 2015 - 2020

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Date: 04-Jun-2015
No. of pages: 52
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"Mobile services will account for more than 60% of the telecoms revenue growth in Latin America between 2014 and 2020."

LTE take-up is accelerating in most markets in Latin America (LATAM) thanks to increasing handset availability, attractive packages during the latest Christmas campaign and further network roll-out. In Brazil, 4G net additions reached 700 000 in 4Q 2014 (their highest level), while in Colombia 4G adoption accelerated significantly during the past three quarters. We forecast that LTE will account for 19% of mobile SIMs in LATAM by 2020. Mobile revenue will continue to grow in all markets – albeit slowly, as competition intensifies. Several markets are quite dynamic in terms of M&A and network deployment (of cable, fibre and LTE) and competition is intensifying as new MVNOs enter the market (particularly in Brazil, Chile and Colombia). MTR cuts in Brazil, Chile, Colombia and Mexico will intensify price pressure. Substitution of traditional services by over-the-top (OTT) alternatives is strong in Brazil and will accelerate in markets with high smartphone take-up (such as Argentina, Chile and Mexico).

This report and associated data annex provide:


  • a 5-year forecast of more than 100 mobile and fixed KPIs for the LATAM region as a whole and seven key countries

  • an in-depth analysis of the trends, drivers and forecast assumptions for each type of mobile and fixed service, and for key countries

  • an overview of operator strategies and country-specific topics, in order to highlight similarities and differences by means of a cross-country comparison

  • a summary of results, key implications and recommendations for mobile and fixed operators.


Coverage Geographical coverage Region modelled


  • Latin America


Countries modelled individually


  • Argentina

  • Brazil

  • Chile

  • Colombia

  • Mexico

  • Peru

  • Venezuela


Countries not modelled individually, but modelled as part of the region as a whole

Anguilla, Antigua and Barbuda, Netherlands Antilles, Aruba, Bahamas, Barbados, Belize, Bermuda, Bolivia, Cayman Islands, Costa Rica, Cuba, Dominica, Dominican Republic, Ecuador, El Salvador, French Guiana, Grenada, Guadeloupe, Guatemala, Guyana, Haiti, Honduras, Jamaica, Martinique, Monsterrat, Nicaragua, Panama, Paraguay, Puerto Rico, St Kitts and Nevis, St Lucia, St Vincent and the Grenadines, Suriname, Trinidad and Tobago, Turks and Caicos Islands, Uruguay, British Virgin Islands and US Virgin Islands

Major KPIs Connections Mobile


  • Handset, mobile broadband, M2M

  • Prepaid, contract

  • 2G, 3G, 4G

  • Smartphone,

  • non-smartphone


Fixed


  • Voice, broadband, IPTV, dial-up

  • Narrowband voice, VoBB

  • DSL, FTTH/B, cable, BFWA


Fixed and mobile voice traffic


  • Outgoing minutes, MoU


Revenue Mobile


  • Service, retail

  • Prepaid, contract

  • Handset, mobile broadband, M2M

  • Handset voice, messaging, data


Fixed


  • Service, retail

  • Voice, broadband, IPTV, dial-up, BNS

  • DSL, FTTH/B, cable, BFWA


Mobile ARPU


  • SIMs, handset

  • Prepaid, contract

  • Handset voice

The Latin America telecoms market: trends and forecasts 2015 - 2020

Table of Contents

8.Executive summary
9.Latin America’s telecoms market offers significant growth opportunities for operators – service revenue will reach USD140 billion by 2020
10.Mobile handset data services will be the largest source of retail revenue growth in LATAM between 2014 and 2020, followed by fixed broadband
11.Telecoms retail revenue will grow in all markets between 2014 and 2020, although regulatory activity will constrain growth in Chile and Mexico
12.Key trends, drivers and assumptions for the mobile and fixed markets
13.Key implications and recommendations for telecoms operators
14.Regional forecasts and cross-country comparison
15.Geographical coverage: We model the seven largest markets, which account for about 90% of Latin America’s total telecoms service revenue
16.Market context: Mobile penetration exceeds 100% in all countries except Mexico, and Brazil and Mexico account for 61% of the region’s revenue
17.Revenue and ARPU: Mobile handset data services will overtake mobile voice services in 2020 and become the largest source of retail revenue
18.Mobile penetration: Most handset markets are saturated and offer low growth prospects, and non-handset broadband take-up is slowing down
19.Mobile connections: LTE is making an impact in Latin America and will account for 19% of mobile SIMs (excluding M2M) by 2020
20.Smartphones and LTE: Brazil will have the highest smartphone population penetration and LTE take-up rates over the next 5 years
21.Mobile ARPU: Competition is set to intensify in all markets and will drive down ARPU, while Argentina and Venezuela will have high inflation
22.Fixed services: Cable services will gain the most subscribers – driven by pay-TV bundles – but DSL will retain the largest share through 2020
23.Fixed broadband: Household penetration will grow in all markets through 2019 as competition stimulates demand and multi-play adoption grows
24.Key drivers at a glance
25.Individual country forecasts
26.Argentina: Service revenue will reach ARS122 billion in 2020, but high inflation will be partly responsible for this growth
27.Argentina – mobile: Penetration peaked in 2013 and will decline further as multiple-SIM ownership shrinks
28.Argentina – fixed: Broadband penetration growth will be mainly driven by single-play voice and pay-TV users adding broadband
29.Brazil: Service revenue will continue to grow through 2019 as LTE drives up data spending and fixed broadband take-up accelerates
30.Brazil – mobile: LTE gains strength, but regulation, price competition and substitution to OTT services will reduce ARPU
31.Brazil – fixed: The broadband market will become more dynamic thanks to fibre take-up and fixed–mobile bundles
32.Chile: Data revenue growth will offset the decline in mobile voice revenue, which will be driven by MTR cuts and MVNO competition
33.Chile – mobile: Mobile ARPU will remain almost stable as data usage compensates for the strong pressure on voice prices
34.Chile – fixed: Fixed–mobile substitution will drive down fixed voice revenue while fixed broadband will maintain solid growth
35.Colombia: Service revenue will stagnate after a peak in 2018 because fixed and mobile data growth will eventually slow down
36.Colombia – mobile: OTT services will almost completely eliminate mobile messaging revenue by 2020 and LTE take-up will be slow
37.Colombia – fixed: Growth in the broadband market will continue thanks to expanded coverage and service bundling
38.Mexico: Regulation will limit mobile revenue growth in the short term, but may ultimately unlock the market’s potential
39.Mexico – mobile: AT&T’s market entry and Telefónica’s presence will make the market more dynamic
40.Mexico – fixed: Broadband growth will accelerate as operators invest in coverage and fixed voice remains resilient
41.Peru: Service revenue will reach PEN17 billion in 2020 as improvements in 3G and 4G networks drive mobile revenue
42.Peru – mobile: Small operators are gaining momentum, which will make the mobile market more dynamic and drive growth
43.Peru – fixed: Low-ASPU cable connections will drive a short-term decline in fixed broadband ASPU, but it will eventually stabilise
44.Venezuela: Service revenue will reach VEF238 billion in 2020, driven by data services and boosted by a high rate of inflation
45.Venezuela – mobile: LTE will gain strength because operators have to meet population coverage targets conditions
46.Venezuela – fixed: The broadband market will grow slowly because fixed competition is low and LTE will boost mobile Internet usage
47.About the authors and Analysys Mason
48.About the authors
49.About Analysys Mason
50.Research from Analysys Mason
51.Consulting from Analysys Mason

List of Figures

Figure 1: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), Latin America, 2010–2020
Figure 2: Telecoms retail revenue growth by service type, Latin America, 2014–2020
Figure 3: CAGRs for fixed and mobile retail revenue (2014–2020) and market size by total retail revenue (2020), by country, Latin America
Figure 4: Summary of key trends, drivers and assumptions for Latin America
Figure 5: Mobile connections by technology generation and fixed broadband household penetration, by country, Latin America, 2020
Figure 6: Metrics for the seven countries modelled individually in Latin America, 2014
Figure 7: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, fixed voice and fixed broadband ASPU, and mobile ARPU, Latin America, 2010–2020
Figure 8: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and growth rates, Latin America, 2014–2020
Figure 9: Connections by type, and growth rates, Latin America, 2014–2020
Figure 10: Active mobile SIM penetration by country (excluding M2M), Latin America, 2010–2020
Figure 11: Mobile connections by technology generation (excluding M2M), and 3G and 4G’s share of connections, Latin America, 2010–2020
Figure 12: Smartphones as a percentage of handsets, and LTE’s share of total connections (excluding M2M), Latin America, 2014 and 2020
Figure 13: Mobile ARPU by country, Latin America, 2010–20201
Figure 14: Fixed broadband connections by type, and fixed voice, IPTV and mobile broadband connections, Latin America, 2010–2020
Figure 15: Fixed broadband penetration of households by country, Latin America, 2010–2020
Figure 16: Major forecast drivers and impact, by country, Latin America, 2015–2020
Figure 17: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), Argentina, 2010–2020
Figure 18: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and growth rates, Argentina, 2010–2020
Figure 19: Connections by type, and growth rates, Argentina, 2010–2020
Figure 20: Mobile, smartphone and 4G penetration rates, Argentina, 2010–2020
Figure 21: Mobile ARPU by type, and mobile ARPU, Argentina, 2010–2020
Figure 22: Summary of key mobile market drivers and assumptions, Argentina
Figure 23: Fixed penetration rates by service type, Argentina, 2010–2020
Figure 24: Fixed ASPU by service type, Argentina, 2010–2020
Figure 25: Summary of key fixed market drivers and assumptions, Argentina
Figure 26: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), Brazil, 2010–2020
Figure 27: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and growth rates, Brazil, 2010–2020
Figure 28: Connections by type, and growth rates, Brazil, 2010–2020
Figure 29: Mobile, smartphone and 4G penetration rates, Brazil, 2010–2020
Figure 30: Mobile ARPU by type, and mobile ARPU, Brazil, 2010–2020
Figure 31: Summary of key mobile market drivers and assumptions, Brazil
Figure 32: Fixed penetration rates by service type, Brazil, 2010–2020
Figure 33: Fixed ASPU by service type, Brazil, 2010–2020
Figure 34: Summary of key fixed market drivers and assumptions, Brazil
Figure 35: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), Chile, 2010–2020
Figure 36: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and growth rates, Chile, 2010–2020
Figure 37: Connections by type, and growth rates, Chile, 2010–2020
Figure 38: Mobile, smartphone and 4G penetration rates, Chile, 2010–2020
Figure 39: Mobile ARPU by type, and mobile ARPU, Chile, 2010–2020
Figure 40: Summary of key mobile market drivers and assumptions, Chile
Figure 41: Fixed penetration rates by service type, Chile, 2010–2020
Figure 42: Fixed ASPU by service type, Chile, 2010–2020
Figure 43: Summary of key fixed market drivers and assumptions, Chile
Figure 44: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), Colombia, 2010–2020
Figure 45: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and growth rates, Colombia, 2010–2020
Figure 46: Connections by type, and growth rates, Colombia, 2010–2020
Figure 47: Mobile, smartphone and 4G penetration rates, Colombia, 2010–2020
Figure 48: Mobile ARPU by type, and mobile ARPU, Colombia, 2010–2020
Figure 49: Summary of key mobile market drivers and assumptions, Colombia
Figure 50: Fixed penetration rates by service type, Colombia, 2010–2020
Figure 51: Fixed ASPU by service type, Colombia, 2010–2020
Figure 52: Summary of key fixed market drivers and assumptions, Colombia
Figure 53: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), Mexico, 2010–2020
Figure 54: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and growth rates, Mexico, 2010–2020
Figure 55: Connections by type, and growth rates, Mexico, 2010–2020
Figure 56: Mobile, smartphone and 4G penetration rates, Mexico, 2010–2020
Figure 57: Mobile ARPU by type, and mobile ARPU, Mexico, 2010–2020
Figure 58: Summary of key mobile market drivers and assumptions, Mexico
Figure 59: Fixed penetration rates by service type, Mexico, 2010–2020
Figure 60: Fixed ASPU by service type, Mexico, 2010–2020
Figure 61: Summary of key fixed market drivers and assumptions, Mexico
Figure 62: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), Peru, 2010–2020
Figure 63: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and growth rates, Peru, 2010–2020
Figure 64: Connections by type, and growth rates, Peru, 2010–2020
Figure 65: Mobile, smartphone and 4G penetration rates, Peru, 2010–2020
Figure 66: Mobile ARPU by type, and mobile ARPU, Peru, 2010–2020
Figure 67: Summary of key mobile market drivers and assumptions, Peru
Figure 68: Fixed penetration rates by service type, Peru, 2010–2020
Figure 69: Fixed ASPU by service type, Peru, 2010–2020
Figure 70: Summary of key fixed market drivers and assumptions, Peru
Figure 71: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), Venezuela, 2010–2020
Figure 72: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and growth rates, Venezuela, 2010–2020
Figure 73: Connections by type, and growth rates, Venezuela, 2010–2020
Figure 74: Mobile, smartphone and 4G penetration rates, Venezuela, 2010–2020
Figure 75: Mobile ARPU by type, and mobile ARPU, Venezuela, 2010–2020
Figure 76: Summary of key mobile market drivers and assumptions, Venezuela
Figure 77: Fixed penetration rates by service type, Venezuela, 2010–2020
Figure 78: Fixed ASPU by service type, Venezuela, 2010–2020
Figure 79: Summary of key fixed market drivers and assumptions, Venezuela

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