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The IoT forecast: worldwide technology trends 2017-2026

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Date: 13-Mar-2018
No. of pages: 27
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"Although 4G represents a viable option for automotive applications, it does not address the low-cost, low-power requirements of the majority of IoT applications. These will be addressed by LPWA, which will support the majority of all wireless IoT connections by 2026."

IoT devices have traditionally been supported by 2G networks in most markets. 4G will accommodate more sophisticated applications such as connected vehicles, but the rise of LPWA technologies will provide viable substitutes to 2G for the mass market of IoT devices. Migration to new networks will, however, be a long term process.

This report provides:


  • information about IoT connections worldwide, in eight regions and for several selected countries in 2017, plus forecasts for an additional 9 years

  • analysis of key trends as well as drivers and barriers of IoT networks

  • analysis of the emerging LPWA market including an overview of network announcements, launches and

  • connections (split by NB-IoT, LTE-M and other LPWA (Sigfox, LoRa and so on))

  • analysis of the existing cellular IoT market and connections split by 2G, 3G/4G and 5G.


Coverage

Geographical coverage

Regions modelled


  • Central and Eastern Europe (CEE)

  • Developed Asia–Pacific (DVAP)

  • Emerging Asia–Pacific (EMAP)

  • Latin America (LATAM)

  • Middle East and North Africa (MENA)

  • North America (NA)

  • Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA)

  • Western Europe (WE)


Key metrics

IoT connections worldwide and by region by technology type:


  • 2G

  • 3G/4G

  • 5G

  • NB-IoT

  • LTE-M

  • Other LPWA

The IoT forecast: worldwide technology trends 2017-2026

Table of Contents

6.Worldwide trends
7.Worldwide: NB-IoT will be the dominant network for IoT in 2026 with large scale deployments in many markets
8.Worldwide: NB-IoT constitutes 38% of the total connections in
2026, fuelled by widespread adoption in the Chinese market
9.Worldwide: Early indicators suggest that NB-IoT will dominate,
but will co-exist with other LPWA technologies
10.Worldwide: Support for various LPWA technologies will prevail,
but the market share will change significantly
11.Worldwide: 2G IoT will gradually decline and is indicative of
operator caution in decommissioning 2G networks
12.Worldwide: 3G/4G will be the dominant network for traditional cellular IoT, largely due to the automotive and transport sectors
13.Worldwide: North America is the largest IoT market among high
income markets; China dominates with 1.1 billion connections
14.Western Europe
15.Western Europe: Diverse LPWA technologies have been deployed; NB-IoT will have the largest share in 2026
16.Western Europe: Operators do not follow the same LPWA
technology adoption path, but take different routes to market
17.Central and Eastern Europe
18.Central and Eastern Europe: There have been few high profile LPWA announcements, but NB-IoT is expected to dominate
19.Central and Eastern Europe: We expect to see similar patterns
across CEE countries with regard to NB-IoT penetration
20.Middle East and North Africa
21.Middle East and North Africa: Traditional cellular networks (2G and 3G/4G) will be the primary networks for IoT until 2022
22.Middle East and North Africa: 3G/4G connections will form a greater share of total connections in high-income markets
23.Sub-Saharan Africa
24.Sub-Saharan Africa: The number of LPWA connections will grow significantly but IoT will remain a relatively small market
25.Sub-Saharan Africa: South Africa is the most advanced IoT
market and was one of the first to launch a LPWA network
26.Emerging Asia–Pacific
27.Emerging Asia–Pacific excluding China: The number of IoT connections will grow with a CAGR of 45%
28.Emerging Asia–Pacific: China will continue to be the largest
IoT market worldwide in 2026
29.Developed Asia–Pacific
30.Developed Asia–Pacific: 3G/4G was the main IoT network in 2017 due to the early decommissioning of 2G networks
31.Developed Asia–Pacific: NB-IoT will dominate but other LPWA
networks will make significant progress
32.North America
33.North America: LTE-M will be the dominant LPWA technology until 2022 when it will be surpassed by NB-IoT
34.North America: The USA will be the second largest IoT market after China in 2026 with 814 million IoT connections
35.Latin America
36.Latin America: LPWA will drive growth in new sectors and will stimulate demand for IoT
37.Latin America: The use of 2G in IoT will decrease slowly: NB-IoT and LTE-M will each take a similar share of the market in 2026
38.Forecast methodology and assumptions
39.Comparison of the total wireless connections with the previous forecast (2017)
40.Definitions
41.Other changes to forecast methodology and assumptions
42.About the authors and Analysys Mason
43.About the authors
44.About Analysys Mason
45.Research from Analysys Mason
46.Consulting from Analysys Mason

List of Figures:

Figure 1: Total IoT connections by network type, worldwide, 2013–2026
Figure 2:  Share of connections by network type, worldwide, 2026
Figure 3:  LPWA networks announced by technology type, 2016 versus 2017
Figure 4:  Share of LPWA connections by LPWA network type, worldwide, 2026
Figure 5: Planned or completed 2G decommissioning by geography
Figure 6: Share of traditional cellular connections by network type, worldwide, 2026
Figure 7: Total IoT connections (cellular and LPWA) by region, 2026
Figure 8: Total IoT connections by network type, Western Europe, 2013–2026
Figure 9:  Share of IoT connections by network type, France and Germany, 2026
Figure 10:  NB-IoT share of the total number of LPWA connections, France and Germany, 2016–2026
Figure 11: Total IoT connections by network type, Central and Eastern Europe, 2013–2026
Figure 12: Share of IoT connections by network type, Russia and Turkey, 2026
Figure 13: Total IoT connections by network type, Middle East and North Africa, 2013–2026
Figure 14: Share of IoT connections by network type, Egypt and the UAE, 2026
Figure 15: Total IoT connections by network type, Sub-Saharan Africa, 2013-2026
Figure 16: Share of IoT connections by network type, South Africa, 2026
Figure 17: Total IoT connections by network type, emerging Asia–Pacific, 2013–2026
Figure 18: Share of IoT connections by network type, China, 2026
Figure 19: Net additions by network type, China, 2013–2026
Figure 20: Total IoT connections by network type, developed Asia–Pacific, 2013–2026
Figure 21: Total IoT connections by network type, Australia and Japan, 2013–2026
Figure 22: Total IoT connections by network type, North America, 2013–2026
Figure 23: Total IoT connections by network type, USA, 2026
Figure 24: Net additions by network type, USA, 2013–2026
Figure 25: Total IoT connections by network type, Latin America, 2013–2026
Figure 26: Total IoT connections by network type, Brazil and Mexico, 2026
Figure 27: Previous IoT connections forecast versus new IoT connections forecast

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