The Impact of China-US Trade Fight and Huawei and ZTE Bans on the Global Communications Equipment Supply Chain

Publisher Name :
Date: 15-Aug-2019
No. of pages: 64

To keep his campaign promise, Trump signed an executive memorandum to impose higher tariffs on Chinese goods imported into the United States in March 2018, involving large amounts and plenty of goods. In the first two rounds of tariffs, the US has imposed duties on a total of US$50 billion worth of Chinese goods, including semiconductor ICs, car parts, machinery, and equipment, including servers. And smartphones are likely to be on the list. The U.S. Department of Commerce imposed a denial order against ZTE on April 16, 2018, banning American businesses or individuals from selling high-tech components and technologies to the Chinese telecom equipment maker. Despite the ban has been expanded to Huawei, the G20 Summit seems to help ratchet down the trade fight between the US and China. This report provides a description of how this all began, a whole picture of these bans and tariffs, and how these have affected the global IT industry, especially in the communications sector; looks at some of the possible consequences if the fight continues.

List of Topics

Background of the China-US trade fight and the general impact on the IT and telecom industries

Analysis of the impact on Taiwanese communications equipment manufactured in China for the smartphone, wireless broadband equipment, and fixed broadband equipment industries from the production value and major client perspectives

The implications of the China-US trade fight for the ZTE supply chain, comprising of application processors and wireless communication chips, RF components, and operating systems; the implications for ZTE’s 5G ambitions

Analysis of the impact on the Apple iPhone and its supply chain and includes countermeasures and strategies of stakeholders in the short-, medium, and long-term.

Analysis of the impact on the server industry in China, the US, and Taiwan, and includes countermeasures and strategies of stakeholders in the short-, medium, and long-term

The reasons and political risks behind the Huawei and ZTE bans and what Huawei has done to defend its equipment security; how enterprises around the world react or have reacted to the bans, especially those in Japan, and Europe

The short-, medium, and long-term development trends and the impact on the industry following the G20 Summit

List of Companies

Airoha Technology

- Alcatel

- Alibaba

- Altice

- Amazon

- Apple

- ARM

- ASE

- AT&T

- AutoNavi

- Baidu

- Beijing Changjiu Logistics

- Beijing Hyundai

- Best Buy

- Bloomberg

- BMW

- Bouygues Telecom

- British Telecom

- Broadcom

- BT

- Catcher Technology

- CNBC. Coke Cola

- Compeq

- Delta

- Der Spiegel

- Deutsche Telekom

- Flexium Interconnect

- Foxconn

- Futurewei Technologies

- Genius Electronic Optical

- GIS

- HiSilicon

- HPE

- HTC

- Huawei. IBM. Infineon

- Inspur

- Inventec

- KDDI

- KINSUS

- KT

- KY

- KYEC

- Largan Precision

- Lenovo

- LG

- Maxscend Microelectronics

- MediaTek

- Merry

- Mitac

- Motorola

- Murata

- NTT

- NTT Docomo

- OPPO

- Optus

- Orange

- Panasonic

- Pegatron

- Play

- Qorvo

- Qualcomm

- Quanta

- Reuters

- Samsung

- Simplo

- Sina

- SKT

- SkyCom

- Skyworks

- SoftBank

- Sony

- Spark

- SPIL

- Stiftung Neue Verantwortung

- Sugon

- Taiyo Yuden

- TCL

- TDK

- TDK EPCOS

- Telefonia Dialog

- Telefónica Deutschland

- Telefónica O2

- Tencent

- Three

- TI

- TIM

- Tizen

- TPK

- Tsinghua Unigroup

- TSMC

- Unigroup Spreadtrum RDA

- United States Census Bureau

- Verizon

- VIVO

- Vodafone

- Vodafone Hutchison Australia

- Walsin Technology

- WIN Semiconductors

- Wingtech

- Winnebago

- Wistron

- Xiaomi

- Zhen Ding

- ZTE

The Impact of China-US Trade Fight and Huawei and ZTE Bans on the Global Communications Equipment Supply Chain

Table of Contents
1. Preface
1.1 Background
1.2 Scope of Impact
1.1.1 IT and Telecom Industries
1.1.2 Brands and OEM/ODMs Export Goods from China to the United States
2. Taiwanese Communications Products Manufacturered in China
2.1 Smartphone Industry
2.2.1 Production Value
2.2.2 Major Clients
2.3 Wireless Broadband Equipment Industry
2.3.1 Production Value
2.3.2 Major Clients
2.4 Fixed Broadband Equipment Industry
2.4.1 Production Value
2.4.2 Major Clients
3. The Possible Impact on the Industry
3.1 Smartphone Industry
3.1.1 Export Value
3.1.2 Stakeholder Analysis
3.2 Wireless Broadband Equipment Industry
3.2.1 Export Value
3.2.2 Stakeholder Analysis
3.3 Fixed Broadband Equipment Industry
3.3.1 Export Value
3.3.2 Stakeholder Analysis
4. MIC Perspective
5.Preface
6.Implications for the ZTE Supply Chain
6.1 Application Processor and Wireless Communication Chip
6.1.1 The Current Market
6.1.2 Possible Places to Transfer the Orders
6.2 Radio Frequency Component
6.2.1 The Current Market
6.2.2 Possible Places to Transfer the Orders
6.3 Operating System
6.3.1 The Current Market
6.3.2 Possible Places to Transfer the Orders
7. Implications for ZTE's 5G Ambitions
7.1 The Denial Order Seeks to Stifle ZTE's Development Momentum by Barring the Use of American Software and Hardware
7.1.1 The Incapability to Conduct Independent R&D for Core Chips and Components Has Become a Major Issue
7.1.2 The U.S. is Determined to Cripple China's 5G Development, and the Shots are Being Fired at ZTE
8. MIC Perspective
9.Preface
9.1 iPhone Likely to Become a Bargaining Chip in US-China Trade War
10.Impact Analysis
10.1 iPhone Accounts for over 42% of the Smartphone Imports in the United States
10.2 Impact on Supply Chain
11.Countermeasures
11.1Short-term Strategy: Adjust Existing Capacity to Increase Production in Taiwan
11.2 Mid-to Long-Term Strategy: Increase Production Share in South/Southeast Asia
12.MIC Perspective
13. Preface
13.1 Conflict Intensifies as Neither Side Willing to Make Concessions
14. Development of US and Chinese Server Industries
14.1 US Dominance Challenged by China
14.2 China’s Spy Chip Incidents Ignites Network Security Concerns Worldwide
15. Impact on Taiwan’s Server Industry
15.1 Less Impact on Taiwanese Server Industry Chain
15.2 Greater Impact on Server Industry from Network Security Concerns; Some Vendors Move Production Lines out of China
16. MIC Perspective
16.1 US-China Relations Remain Tense in Near Future
16.2 Limited Impact on Server Industry
16.3 Chinese Spy Chip Scandal Speeds up Moving Production Lines outside China
17. Huawei Network Equipment Banned by Several Countries and Telecoms
18.Main Reasons behind Lack of Trust in Chinese Enterprises
18.1 Huawei’s Global Expansion Backed by Government
18.2 Chinese Enterprises’ Difficulty in Maintaining Independence under China’s Legal System
18.2.1 Chinese Government’s Increased Control over Chinese Enterprises
18.2.2 Chinese Government’s Legitimate Rights to Conduct Intelligence through Enterprises
19. Huawei Defends Equipment Security
19.1 Huawei Asserts Ability to Manage its Security and Keep Independence from the Government
19.2 Huawei Proposes Security Improvement Measurements to Win Trust of Western Countries
20. Most Enterprise Customers Still Hold on to Huawei Equipment
20.1 Huawei's Biggest Loss in the Asia Pacific is the Loss of Market Share in Japan
20.2 Huawei's Market Share in Europe Remains Unaffected Except BT
20.2.1 Other European Operators Still Cooperate with Huawei
20.2.2 Germany Government Has Security Concerns about Huawei's Technology but Not Telecom Operators
20.2.3 Huawei's 5G Product Advantages Make it Difficult for Telecom Operators to Give Up Easily
21. Political Risks That Huawei May Have to Encounter in the Future
21.1 Huawei Continues to Face Political Risks in the Future
21.2 Governments and Operators of All Countries Have High Possibility of Expanding the Blockade
21.3 ZTE Should Be Worried About the US Government Bans on All China-made Products
22. MIC Perspective
22.1 The Impact on Huawei’s Brand Image is Greater than on Its Revenues
23.G20 Summit
23.1 G2’s Announcements in G20 Summit
23.2 US Tech Companies Sidestep Trump’s Huawei Ban
24.Short-, Medium-, and Long-term Development Trends
24.1 Short-term Development: Situation Seems to Get Better
24.2 Medium-term Development: To Strengthen Ties with Non-US Suppliers
24.3 Long-term Development: To Construct Homegrown Industry Chain
25.Impact on the Industry
26.MIC Perspective
26.1 Seek Opportunities Stemming from US Companies
26.2 Help China Bridge the Gap in the Industry Supply Chain
26.3 Diversify Supply Chain to Reduce Risks
Appendix
Glossary of Terms
List of Companies
List of Tables
Table 1 Tariffs and Prices of iPhone X in Different Countries
Table 2 Impact of US-China Trade War on Apple’s Taiwanese Partners
Table 3 Analysis of EMS Providers’ Production Sites
Table 4 Major US Trading Partners in 2017
Table 5 Bans on Huawei Equipment Worldwide
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