The FTTx conversion: worldwide trends and forecasts 2019–2025

Publisher Name :
Date: 11-Mar-2020
No. of pages: 17
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"Cable broadband players are already under pressure in many European countries and the competitive threat posed by alternative technologies is set to grow."

There is still great potential to increase the number of NGA subscribers. We expect that the total number of FTTP subscribers worldwide will increase by 45% between the end of 2019 and the end of 2025, which particularly reflects robust growth in emerging markets.

This report analyses and forecasts conversion (premises with active connections as a percentage of premises passed) for FTTx architecture and technologies during 2019–2025.

Key metrics covered in this report


  • Conversion rates (that is, premises with active connections as a percentage of premises passed)

  • Connection numbers

  • Connection rate of premises passed


Split by architecture/technology:


  • FTTC/VDSL or G.fast

  • FTTB/VDSL or G.fast

  • FTTB/LAN

  • FTTP (split by incumbent and alternative operator)

  • Cable DOCSIS3.0 or 3.1


Geographical coverage

The report and accompanying data annex provide forecasts for 8 regions and 64 individual countries.

Region

Countries

Western Europe

Austria, Belgium, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Iceland, Ireland, Italy, Netherlands, Norway, Portugal, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, UK.

Central and Eastern Europe

Bulgaria, Croatia, Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Romania, Russia, Serbia, Slovakia, Slovenia, Turkey, Ukraine.

Middle East and North Africa

Israel, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, UAE.

Sub-Saharan Africa

Ghana, Kenya, Nigeria, South Africa.

Emerging Asia–Pacific

China, India, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand, Vietnam.

Developed Asia–Pacific

Australia, Hong Kong, Japan, New Zealand, Singapore, South Korea, Taiwan

North America

Canada, USA.

Latin America

Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Mexico, Peru, Uruguay.

The FTTx conversion: worldwide trends and forecasts 2019–2025

Table of Contents

7.Worldwide trends
NGA conversion rates will only grow slightly during the forecast period, but NGA subscriber numbers will increase significantly
Cable broadband players are facing increasing pressure from FTTP roll-outs in many European countries
Growth in the number of cable broadband subscribers will be constrained by FTTP roll-outs
Non-incumbent FTTP take-up rates in Western Europe are currently highly variable, but will start to converge during the forecast period
Challenger infrastructure roll-outs will affect FTTP conversion in VDSL-dominated markets
Most operators in developed markets still have very few gigabit subscribers and such speeds are not common in entry-level FTTP tiers
The migration to gigabit FTTP speeds will take many years in most countries if there are no retail price incentives or free speed upgrades
There is still significant potential for growth in the number of NGA connections in emerging markets
Western Europe
NGA conversion rates will grow strongly in Western Europe during the forecast period
Central and Eastern Europe
NGA conversion rates will grow steadily, but unspectacularly, in CEE during the forecast period
Middle East and North Africa
NGA conversion rates are growing in MENA, but they remain constrained by a diverse set of factors
22.Sub-Saharan Africa
It is somewhat surprising that there have not been more-extensive roll-outs in Sub-Saharan Africa given the high NGA conversion rate
China
There is now very little potential for growth in fibre conversion rates in China
Rest of emerging Asia–Pacific
The overall NGA conversion rate in the rest of EMAP will be 44% at the end of 2025, which reflects the ongoing opportunities for growth in the fixed broadband segment
Developed Asia–Pacific
The threat of wireless substitution is intensifying in a number of countries in DVAP
North America
We forecast that there will be a smaller decline in the number of NGA subscribers in North America than previously anticipated
Latin America
Incumbent copper decommissioning plans have caused NGA conversion rates to increase significantly
Forecast methodology and assumptions
Geographical scope: forecasts are provided for 64 countries in 8 regions
Definitions
About the author and Analysys Mason
About the author
39.Analysys Mason’s consulting and research are uniquely positioned
Research from Analysys Mason
Consulting from Analysys Mason

List of Figures

Figure 1: Conversion rates by technology, worldwide, 2014–2025
Figure 2: NGA conversion rates by region, 2014–2025
Figure 3: Year-on-year change in the number of cable broadband subscribers, Western Europe and North America, 2019
Figure 4: Total number of NGA subscribers and cable broadband subscribers, Western Europe, 2018–2025
Figure 5: Non-incumbent FTTP conversion rates, Western Europe, 2017–2025
Figure 6: FTTP coverage, conversion rate and share of fixed broadband connections, Canada, 2016–2019
Figure 7: Entry-level FTTP speeds from incumbents, Western Europe, January 2019
Figure 8: Maximum FTTP speeds from incumbents, Western Europe, January 2019
Figure 9: NGA subscribers as a percentage of total premises, emerging markets, 2018–2025
Figure 10: Conversion rates for NGA overall, and for FTTP and FTTx, Western Europe, 2017–2025
Figure 11: Premises connected as a percentage of all premises, by technology, Western Europe, 2017–2025
Figure 12: Conversion rates for NGA overall, and for FTTP and FTTx, Central and Eastern Europe, 2017–2025
Figure 13: Premises connected as a percentage of all premises, by technology, Central and Eastern Europe, 2017–2025
Figure 14: Conversion rates for NGA overall, and for FTTP and FTTx, Middle East and North Africa, 2017–2025
Figure 15: Premises connected as a percentage of all premises, by technology, Middle East and North Africa, 2017–2025
Figure 16: Conversion rates for NGA overall, and for FTTP and FTTx, Sub-Saharan Africa, 2017–2025
Figure 17: Premises connected as a percentage of all premises, by technology, Sub-Saharan Africa, 2017–2025
Figure 18: Conversion rates for NGA overall, and for FTTP and FTTx, China, 2017–2025
Figure 19: Premises connected as a percentage of all premises, by technology, China, 2017–2025
Figure 20: Conversion rates for NGA overall, and for FTTP and FTTx, rest of emerging Asia–Pacific, 2017–2025
Figure 21: Premises connected as a percentage of all premises, by technology, rest of emerging Asia–Pacific, 2017–2025
Figure 22: Conversion rates for NGA overall, and for FTTP and FTTx, developed Asia-Pacific, 2017–2025
Figure 23: Premises connected as a percentage of all premises, by technology, developed Asia–Pacific, 2017–2025
Figure 24: Conversion rates for NGA overall, and for FTTP and FTTx, North America, 2017–2025
Figure 25: Premises connected as a percentage of all premises, by technology, North America, 2017–2025
Figure 26: Conversion rates for NGA overall, and for FTTP and FTTx, Latin America, 2017–2025
Figure 27: Premises connected as a percentage of all premises, by technology, Latin America, 2017–2025
Figure 28: Countries covered in this report, by region
Figure 29: Definitions used in this report

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