The Fixed services in Western Europe: trends and forecasts 2015–2020
Table of contents
5.Executive summary
6.Executive summary
7.Worldwide trends
8.Worldwide: WE will experience weaker growth, compared with other regions, due to strong market competition
9.Worldwide: FTTH/B connections will increase to 425 million, accounting for 44% of total fixed broadband connections
10.Worldwide: Household penetration will increase from 39% to 48% because of GDP per capita growth and network roll-out
11.Regional trends
12.WE: Telecoms retail revenue will continue to decline, but pay-TV retail revenue will increase moderately
13.WE: The region’s technology mix is evolving rapidly as customers look for faster broadband and operators seek to cut costs
14.WE: Fixed broadband penetration will increase across the region, but market characteristics vary in each country
15.WE: Next-generation services will dominate the mobile and fixed broadband markets in Western Europe by 2020
16.WE: Quality of service will be the main differentiator driving market competition in fixed broadband
17.Country-level trends
18.France: Bundled offers are one of operators’ key strategies for reducing churn, but broadband ARPU will decline as a result
19.Germany: Bundling will reduce broadband ASPU, but this decline will be limited by operators competing on network quality
20.Italy: Pay-TV content agreements and NGA may make the broadband market more dynamic, but penetration will lag behind
21.Spain: In-market consolidation, fibre deployment and fixed–mobile bundles will make the fixed market very dynamic
22.UK: Bundling will put increased pressure on ASPU, but NGA investments will soften this decline to some extent
23.Forecast methodology and assumptions
24.We have a disciplined process of forecasting; our on-the-ground analysts and consultants collaborate closely to assess market dynamics
25.Our forecasts are informed by primary and secondary research for data collection, a rigorous methodology and our analysis of external drivers
26.A robust and comparable set of historical data is the starting point for our forecasts; this involves three main activities
27.About the authors and Analysys Mason
28.About the authors
29.About Analysys Mason
30.Research from Analysys Mason
31.Consulting from Analysys Mason
List of Figures
Figure 1: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), Western Europe, 2010–2020
Figure 2: CAGRs for fixed and mobile retail revenue (2014–2020) and market size by total retail revenue (2020), by region, worldwide
Figure 3: Fixed broadband connections by type, and fixed voice, IPTV and mobile broadband connections, worldwide, 2010–2020
Figure 4: Fixed broadband penetration of households by country, worldwide, 2010–2020
Figure 5: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, fixed voice and fixed broadband ASPU, Western Europe, 2010–2020
Figure 6: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and growth rates, Western Europe, 2014–2020
Figure 7: Connections by type, and growth rates, Western Europe, 2014–2020
Figure 8: Fixed broadband connections by type, and fixed voice, IPTV and mobile broadband connections, Western Europe, 2010–2020
Figure 9a: Residential fixed broadband penetration of households by country, northern Europe, 2010–2020
Figure 9b: Residential fixed broadband penetration of households by country, southern Europe, 2010–2020
Figure 10: Mobile connections by technology generation and fixed broadband household penetration, by country, Western Europe, 2020
Figure 11: Fixed penetration rates by service type, WE, 2010–2020
Figure 12: Fixed ASPU by service type, WE, 2010–2020
Figure 13: Summary of key fixed market drivers and assumptions, WE
Figure 14: Total fixed retail revenue, fixed broadband and IPTV revenue and CAGR, France, 2014–2020
Figure 15: Total fixed retail revenue, fixed broadband and IPTV revenue and CAGR, Germany, 2014–2020
Figure 16: Total fixed retail revenue, fixed broadband and IPTV revenue and CAGR, Italy, 2014–2020
Figure 17: Total fixed retail revenue, fixed broadband and IPTV revenue and CAGR, Spain, 2014–2020
Figure 18: Total fixed retail revenue, fixed broadband and IPTV revenue and CAGR, UK, 2014–2020
Figure 19: Data, research principles and external factors that inform our forecasting methodology
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