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The Central and Eastern Europe telecoms market: trends and forecasts 2017–2022 based on 3Q 2017 data

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Date: 27-Mar-2018
No. of pages: 36
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"Telecoms service revenue in Central and Eastern Europe will increase during the forecast period, underpinned by a positive economic outlook and driven by mobile data revenue growth and fixed broadband deployments."

The economy in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) grew strongly in 2017 and we expect that the region’s growing GDP will boost household consumption during the next few years. The growth of service revenue in the region will be driven primarily by retail revenue from mobile data. We expect data revenue to continue to grow as the take-up of data is still relatively low (compared with Western Europe, for example). Fixed broadband (FBB) services will contribute to an increase in overall telecoms revenue due to the steady growth of next-generation access (NGA) investments, increasing household penetration and rising FBB ASPU.

This report and associated data annex provide:


  • a 5-year forecast of more than 360 mobile and fixed KPIs for CEE and for 16 key countries

  • an in-depth analysis of the trends, drivers and forecast assumptions for each type of mobile and fixed service, and for the 16 countries

  • an overview of operator strategies and country-specific topics, which highlights similarities and differences between the countries

  • a summary of results, key implications and recommendations for mobile and fixed operators in the region.


Coverage

Geographical coverage

Region modelled


  • Central and Eastern Europe (CEE)


Countries modelled individually


  • Bulgaria

  • Croatia

  • Czech Republic

  • Estonia

  • Hungary

  • Latvia

  • Lithuania

  • Montenegro

  • Poland

  • Romania

  • Russia

  • Serbia

  • Slovakia

  • Slovenia

  • Turkey

  • Ukraine


Key performance indicators

Connections

Mobile


  • Handset, mobile broadband, IoT

  • Prepaid, contract

  • 2G, 3G, 4G, 5G

  • Smartphone,

  • non-smartphone


Fixed


  • Voice, broadband, IPTV, dial-up

  • Narrowband voice, VoBB

  • DSL, FTTP/B, cable, BFWA, 5G, other


Fixed and mobile voice traffic


  • Outgoing minutes, MoU


Revenue

Mobile


  • Service, retail

  • Prepaid, contract

  • Handset, mobile broadband, IoT

  • Handset voice, messaging, data


Fixed


  • Service, retail

  • Voice, broadband, IPTV, dial-up, business services

  • DSL, FTTP/B, cable, BFWA, other


Mobile ARPU


  • SIMs, handset

  • Prepaid, contract

  • Handset voice, data

The Central and Eastern Europe telecoms market: trends and forecasts 2017–2022 based on 3Q 2017 data

Table of Contents

8.Executive summary
9.The recovery in telecoms revenue will continue during the next few years, driven by handset data revenue growth and fixed network investments
10.Retail revenue growth in CEE will be driven by expanding 4G coverage and further NGA roll-outs
11.Geographical coverage: the number of 4G connections will surge in most countries in Central and Eastern Europe during the forecast period
12.Key trends, drivers and assumptions for the mobile and fixed markets
13.Key recommendations for telecoms operators
14.Regional forecasts and cross-country comparison
15.Market context: CEE’s improving economy will help to increase household spending on telecoms services
16.Key mergers, acquisitions, and market entries in Central and Eastern Europe
17.Key drivers at a glance for each Central and Eastern Europe market
18.Market overview: price competition has declined in CEE and telecoms service revenue will increase during the forecast period
19.Mobile: 4G connections will gradually displace 3G/2G, but we do not expect 3G/2G network decommissions before 2022
20.Mobile: the level of mobile SIM penetration in all CEE countries (except Turkey) will remain relatively stable
21.Mobile: ARPU in CEE will stabilise due to declining competitive pressure on prices and the increasing take-up of more-expensive data plans
22.Mobile: the widespread deployment of LTE infrastructure will support mobile revenue growth in CEE
23.Fixed: NGA network roll-out and increasing broadband household penetration will drive fixed telecoms revenue growth
24.Fixed: penetration rates will increase across the region, but the pace of progress will vary due to economic and geographic diversity
25.Fixed: fixed broadband ASPU will in CEE will stabilise in the forecast period due to high competition in fixed broadband segment
26.Fixed: fixed telecoms operators will increase their investments in NGA network deployment and will focus on content offers
27.Business services: key other business services for telecoms operators include co-location and hosting, private cloud, security, SaaS and IaaS
28.IoT: telecoms operators will look for opportunities to their increase revenue streams from the IoT segment
29.Pay-TV: traditional pay-TV revenue will grow slightly in most markets in CEE, but OTT video to the TV will be the main driver of revenue growth
30.Individual country forecasts
31.Czech Republic: total telecoms revenue recovery will be driven by mobile handset data revenue
32.Czech Republic: the 4G share of mobile connections will increase quickly due to high service coverage
33.Czech Republic: widespread 4G coverage will drive handset data revenue
34.Czech Republic: Forecast changes
35.Poland: revenue for telecoms service will stabilise during the forecast period, driven by increasing FBB service take-up
36.Poland: fixed broadband ASPU and mobile ARPU will stabilise as operators focus more on service competition
37.Poland: content services will help telecoms operators to monetise network investments in both fixed and mobile segments
38.Poland: Forecast changes
39.Russia: total service revenue will decline, mainly driven by significant decrease in fixed and mobile voice usage
40.Russia: competition in the country’s mobile market will increase and lead to a decline in handset ARPU
41.Russia: growth in the number of fibre lines will increase broadband ASPU; increasing 4G coverage will improve handset data ARPU
42.Russia: Forecast changes
43.Turkey: 4G service take-up and a strong demand for mobile handset data services will drive an increase in ARPU
44.Turkey: FBB penetration will continue to increase and NGA access will dominate in household broadband connections by 2022
45.Turkey: revenue growth in the fixed and mobile segments will be driven by 4G service take-up and NGA network roll-outs
46.Turkey: Forecast changes
47.Methodology
48.Our forecast model is supported by sound market knowledge
49.Examples of forecast input drivers
50.Key drivers at a glance table: methodology [1]
51.Key drivers at a glance table: methodology [2]
52.About the authors and Analysys Mason
53.About the authors
54.Analysys Mason’s consulting and research are uniquely positioned
55.Research from Analysys Mason
56. Consulting from Analysys Mason

List of Figures

Figure 1: Telecoms and pay-TV retail revenue by service type and total service revenue, Central and Eastern Europe, 2012–2022
Figure 2: Telecoms retail revenue and nominal GDP growth by country, Central and Eastern Europe, 2016–2022
Figure 3: 4G/5G share of mobile connections and NGA share of fixed broadband connections by country, Central and Eastern Europe, 2016 and 20221
Figure 4: Summary of key trends, drivers and assumptions for Central and Eastern Europe
Figure 5: Metrics for the 16 countries modelled individually in Central and Eastern Europe, 2016
Figure 6: Recent and upcoming market structure changes in Central and Eastern Europe
Figure 7: Major forecast drivers: current situation (2016) and future trajectory (2017–2022), by country, Central and Eastern Europe
Figure 8: Total fixed and mobile telecoms service revenue, Central and Eastern Europe (EUR billion), 2012–2022
Figure 9: Mobile connections by type, Central and Eastern Europe (million), 2012–2022
Figure 10: Telecoms retail revenue and growth rate by service type, Central and Eastern Europe, 2012–2022
Figure 11: Fixed connections by type, Central and Eastern Europe (million), 2012–2022
Figure 12: Mobile connections by generation, Central and Eastern Europe (million), 2012–2022
Figure 13: Mobile ARPU by type, Central and Eastern Europe (EUR per month), 2012–2022
Figure 14: Contract share of mobile connections (excluding IoT), Central and Eastern Europe, 2012–2022
Figure 15: Mobile data traffic per connection, Central and Eastern Europe (MB per month), 2012–2022
Figure 16a: Mobile penetration by country, Central and Eastern Europe, 2012–2022
Figure 16b: Mobile penetration by country, Central and Eastern Europe, 2012–2022
Figure 17a: Mobile ARPU by country, Central and Eastern Europe, 2012–2022
Figure 17b: Mobile ARPU by country, Central and Eastern Europe, 2012–2022
Figure 18: Broadband connections by technology, Central and Eastern Europe (million), 2012–2022
Figure 19: Fixed retail revenue by service, Central and Eastern Europe (EUR billion), 2012–2022
Figure 20: NGA broadband household penetration and NGA share of broadband connections, Central and Eastern Europe, 2012–2022
Figure 21: Fixed Internet traffic per broadband connection, Central and Eastern Europe (GB per month), 2012–2022
Figure 22a: Fixed broadband household penetration by country, Central and Eastern Europe, 2012–2022
Figure 22b: Fixed broadband household penetration by country, Central and Eastern Europe, 2012–2022
Figure 23a: Fixed broadband access ASPU by country, Central and Eastern Europe, 2012–2022
Figure 23b: Fixed broadband access ASPU by country, Central and Eastern Europe, 2012–2022
Figure 24: Total market revenue from business services, Central and Eastern Europe, 2012–2022
Figure 25: Total IoT value chain revenue by sector, Central and Eastern Europe, 2013–2022
Figure 26: Retail revenue from pay-TV, Central and Eastern Europe, 2013–2022
Figure 27: Total fixed and mobile telecoms service revenue, Czech Republic (CZK billion), 2012–2022
Figure 28: Mobile connections by type, Czech Republic (million), 2012–2022
Figure 29: Telecoms retail revenue and growth rate by service type, Czech Republic, 2012–2022
Figure 30: Fixed connections by type, Czech Republic (million), 2012–2022
Figure 30: Fixed connections by type, Czech Republic (million), 2012–2022
Figure 31: 4G, 5G and contract share of mobile connections, Czech Republic, 2012–2022
Figure 32: Mobile ARPU, fixed voice ASPU and fixed broadband ASPU, Czech Republic (CZK per month), 2012–2022
Figure 33: Mobile data traffic per connection, Czech Republic (MB per month), 2012–2022
Figure 34: Broadband connections by technology, Czech Republic (million), 2012–2022
Figure 35: Total telecoms service revenue – current and previous forecasts, Czech Republic, 2012–2022
Figure 36: Total fixed and mobile telecoms service revenue, Poland (PLN billion), 2012–2022
Figure 37: Mobile connections by type, Poland (million), 2012–2022
Figure 38: Telecoms retail revenue and growth rate by service type, Poland, 2012–2022
Figure 39: Fixed connections by type, Poland (million), 2012–2022
Figure 40: 4G, 5G and contract share of mobile connections, Poland, 2012–2022
Figure 41: Mobile ARPU, fixed voice ASPU and fixed broadband ASPU, Poland (PLN per month), 2012–2022
Figure 42: Mobile data traffic per connection, Poland (MB per month), 2012–2022
Figure 43: Broadband connections by technology, Poland (million), 2012–2022
Figure 44: Total telecoms service revenue – current and previous forecasts, Poland, 2012–2022
Figure 45: Total fixed and mobile telecoms service revenue, Russia (RUB billion), 2012–2022
Figure 46: Mobile connections by type, Russia (million), 2012–2022
Figure 47: Telecoms retail revenue and growth rate by service type, Russia, 2012–2022
Figure 48: Fixed connections by type, Russia (million), 2012–2022
Figure 49: 4G, 5G and contract share of mobile connections, Russia, 2012–2022
Figure 50: Mobile ARPU, fixed voice ASPU and fixed broadband ASPU, Russia (RUB per month), 2012–2022
Figure 51: Mobile data traffic per connection, Russia (MB per month), 2012–2022
Figure 52: Broadband connections by technology, Russia (million), 2012–2022
Figure 53: Total telecoms service revenue – current and previous forecasts, Russia, 2012–2022
Figure 54: Total fixed and mobile telecoms service revenue, Turkey (TRY billion), 2012–2022
Figure 55: Mobile connections by type, Turkey (million), 2012–2022
Figure 56: Telecoms retail revenue and growth rate by service type, Turkey, 2012–2022
Figure 57: Fixed connections by type, Turkey (million), 2012–2022
Figure 58: 4G, 5G and contract share of mobile connections, Turkey, 2012–2022
Figure 59: Mobile ARPU, fixed voice ASPU and fixed broadband ASPU, Turkey (TRY per month), 2012–2022
Figure 60: Mobile data traffic per connection, Turkey (MB per month), 2012–2022
Figure 61: Broadband connections by technology, Turkey (million), 2012–2022
Figure 62: Total telecoms service revenue – current and previous forecasts, Turkey, 2012–2022
Figure 63a: Methodology for attributing scores to each element in the key drivers table (current and future) and impact of high scores
Figure 63b: Methodology for attributing scores to each element in the key drivers table (current and future) and impact of high scores

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