The Cellular M2M device connections and revenue: worldwide trends and forecasts 2015–2025

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Date: 23-Feb-2016
No. of pages: 50
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"Cellular M2M connectivity revenue is expected to grow to USD23.6 billion by 2025, driven by a relatively high automotive average revenue per connection (ARPC)."

We expect that cellular M2M connections will grow at a CAGR of 19% year-on-year between 2015 and 2025, but growth will be slower than we reported in our previous M2M forecast. Growth in the automotive sector remains strong, but a decline in car sales in some of the BRIC markets (Brazil, China and Russia) – due to an uncertain macroeconomic climate – will lengthen car replacement cycles and, therefore, adoption of embedded connectivity in passenger vehicles will be affected.

This report provides:


  • analysis of cellular M2M connections and connectivity revenue for the period between 2015–2025

  • analysis of the cellular M2M market for eight sectors and 25 applications

  • analysis of the cellular M2M market for eight regions.


Geographical coverage

Regions


  • Central and Eastern Europe (CEE)

  • Developed Asia–Pacific (DVAP)

  • Emerging Asia–Pacific (EMAP)

  • Latin America (LATAM)

  • Middle East and North Africa (MENA)

  • North America (NA)

  • Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA)

  • Western Europe (WE)

The Cellular M2M device connections and revenue: worldwide trends and forecasts 2015–2025

Table of Contents

6.Worldwide trends
7.Worldwide: Cellular M2M connections will grow at a 19% CAGR, but low car sales will contribute to slower-than-expected growth
8.Worldwide: The automotive and transport sector accounts for over 60% of cellular M2M connections through the period 2014–2025
9.Worldwide: The emerging market’s share of cellular M2M connections will increase due to China’s impact in emerging Asia–Pacific
10.Emerging Asia–Pacific will remain the largest cellular M2M market, reaching 572 million connections in 2025 – almost 40% of the market
11.Worldwide: Cellular M2M connectivity revenue is expected to grow to USD23.6 billion by 2025, driven by a relatively high automotive ARPC
12.Worldwide: The healthcare, financial services and retail segments will generate higher ARPC, but represent small overall opportunities
13.Worldwide: Total M2M device connections will grow at CAGR 14%, and electric smart meters’ share will be 42% in 2025
14.Western Europe
15.Western Europe: the number of cellular M2M connections will continue to grow significantly from a relatively mature state
16.Western Europe: Cellular M2M connectivity revenue will grow to USD5 billion in 2025 due to a strong automotive sector
17.Central and Eastern Europe
18.Central and Eastern Europe: The automotive and transport and security sectors are the region’s largest cellular M2M segments
19.Central and Eastern Europe: Cellular M2M connectivity revenue is expected to grow to USD1.7 billion in 2025
20.Middle East and North Africa
21.Middle East and North Africa: The number of M2M connections will increase at a 29% CAGR from a low base of 3 million in 2014
22.Middle East and North Africa: M2M connectivity revenue will reach just under USD1 billion in 2025
23.Sub-Saharan Africa
24.Sub-Saharan Africa: Connections will reach 38 million in 2025, but the application mix differs from other regions
25.Sub-Saharan Africa: Cellular M2M revenue growth is substantial but connectivity revenue remains small
26.Emerging Asia–Pacific
27.Emerging Asia–Pacific: China dominates M2M activity, but other EMAP markets are addressing the opportunity
28.Emerging Asia–Pacific: Cellular M2M revenue will increase to USD6 billion, generated by a mix of applications
29.Developed Asia–Pacific
30.Developed Asia–Pacific: Cellular M2M connections will reach 114 million and will grow at a CAGR of 19%
31.Developed Asia–Pacific: Cellular M2M revenue is expected to increase five-fold between 2014 and 2025 to over USD3 billion
32.North America
33.North America: The number of M2M connections will grow at a 15% CAGR, reflecting the relatively mature status of the market
34.North America: Cellular M2M connectivity revenue will reach USD5 billion in 2025
35.Latin America
36.Latin America: Cellular M2M connections will experience strong growth and will reach 90 million in 2025
37.Latin America: M2M connectivity revenue will grow to almost USD1.3 billion in 2025
38.Forecast methodology and assumptions
39.Comparison with previous forecasts and calibration with Analysys Mason’s core forecasts
40.Market definitions (1)
41.Market definitions (2)
42.Market definitions (3)
43.Market definitions (4)
44.Definition of geographical regions
45.About the author and Analysys Mason
46.About the author
47.About Analysys Mason
48.Research from Analysys Mason
49.Consulting from Analysys Mason

List of Figures

Figure 1: Cellular M2M connections, worldwide, 2013–2025
Figure 2: Cellular M2M connections by segment, worldwide, 2014 and 2025
Figure 3: Cellular M2M connections share by market type, 2013–2025
Figure 4: Cellular M2M connections (millions) by region, 2025 and CAGR 2014–2025
Figure 5: Cellular M2M connectivity revenue and ARPC, worldwide, 2013–2025
Figure 6: Cellular M2M ARPC by segment, worldwide, 2013–2025
Figure 7: Total M2M connections, worldwide, 2013–2025
Figure 8: Cellular M2M connections, Western Europe, 2013–2025
Figure 9: Cellular M2M connectivity revenue and ARPC, Western Europe, 2013–2025
Figure 10: Cellular M2M connections, Central and Eastern Europe, 2013-2025
Figure 11: Cellular M2M connectivity revenue and ARPC, Central and Eastern Europe, 2013–2025
Figure 12: Cellular M2M device connections, Middle East and North Africa, 2013–2025
Figure 13: Cellular M2M connectivity revenue and ARPC, Middle East and North Africa, 2013–2025
Figure 14: Cellular M2M connections, Sub-Saharan Africa, 2013–2025
Figure 15: Cellular M2M connectivity revenue and ARPC, Sub-Saharan Africa, 2013–2025
Figure 16: Cellular M2M connections, Emerging Asia-Pacific, 2013–2025
Figure 17: Cellular M2M revenue and ARPC, Emerging Asia-Pacific, 2013–2025
Figure 18: Cellular M2M connections, Developed Asia-Pacific, 2013–2025
Figure 19: Cellular M2M revenue and ARPC, Developed Asia-Pacific, 2013–2025
Figure 20: Cellular M2M connections, North America, 2013–2025
Figure 21: Cellular M2M revenue and ARPC, North America, 2013–2025
Figure 22: Cellular M2M connections, Latin America, 2013–2025
Figure 23: Cellular M2M and ARPC, Latin America, 2013–2025
Figure 24: Comparison of cellular M2M connections, November 2014 and February 2016, Worldwide, 2013–2024
Figure 25a: Definitions of M2M verticals and applications
Figure 25b: Definitions of M2M verticals and applications
Figure 25c: Definitions of M2M verticals and applications
Figure 26: Regional breakdown used in this report

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