SARS-CoV-2 COVID Vaccine Market Analysis & Forecast to 2026

This report provides a comprehensive overview of the size of the SARS-CoV-2 COVID Vaccine market, segmentation of the industry (by geography and vaccine technology), key players and the vast potential of vaccines that are in clinical trials. Kelly Scientific analysis indicates that the global COVID vaccine market was worth $59 billion in 2021. However, our forecast indicates that an initial drop in 2022 will occur due to a number of factors including single booster shots as opposed to two shot vaccines and reduced prices in vaccines due to competition.

The COVID vaccine industry is expected to then grow significantly at a CAGR of over 9% and reach $47.5 billion by 2026. This is due to an opening up of the market from a closed government dominated space to one in which private healthcare providers and companies can purchase vaccines. There will also be a continued significant un-met need for vaccine boosters in an endemic situation.

This report describes the evolution of such a huge market in 8 chapters supported by over 74 tables and figures in over 130 pages. The report focuses on the following:

• An overview of the SARS-CoV2 virus that includes: genetic and structural analysis, mutation and variant characterization


• Global COVID vaccine market, global landscape analysis, vaccine technology breakdown and leading market players


• Advance purchase agreements, marketed/pipeline products, financial analysis and business strategy of the major companies in this space


• Focus on current trends, business environment, pipeline products, clinical trials, and future market forecast for COVID vaccines to 2026


• Clinical trial timelines for major vaccines in the pipeline


• Insight into the challenges faced by stakeholders, particularly manufacturers and governments


• Insight into the emergence of variants and their impact on vaccine effectiveness and the overall market


• Financial market forecast through 2026 with CAGR values of all market segments – vaccine technology, geography (US, EU, UK, Japan, RoW) and major players


• Influence of the molecular diagnostics, PCR testing and POC testing landscapes


• Numbers of vaccine doses available by each manufacturer per annum


• Geographical analysis and challenges within countries with respect to advance purchase agreements and distribution channels

Global SARS-CoV-2 Outbreak – Pandemic to Vaccine Discovery

Since an initial outbreak of SARS-CoV-2 in Wuhan at the end of 2019, to a pandemic of over 110 million infections and 2.41 million deaths in 2021, a global effort has been made to structurally elucidate this virus and develop new vaccines to reduce its transmission. Currently, Pfizer/BioNTech, Moderna, AstraZeneca, Gamelaya, J&J, Novavax, Sinovac and Curevac have developed the most prominent vaccines in the pipeline. At the time of writing, 234 million people have been vaccinated globally, the majority being in the US, China and the EU.

Challenges of Mutations and Threats of Future Variants

The emergence of SARS-CoV-2 spike protein mutations globally have enabled the virus to become more infectious. Sequencing thousands of samples have enabled the identification of the most common mutations thus far including B.1.1.7 (UK), B.1.351 (South Africa) and P1 lineage (Japan/Brazil). Mutations such as these give the virus an evolutionary advantage for selection as they allow for protein structural changes in the spike protein.

This is most notable in Ireland which had a 5% prevalence of the B.1.1.7 strain in December 2020, which increased dramatically to 90% prevalence by February 2021. The B.1.1.7 strain contains numerous mutations in the spike region which give it a higher affinity to attach to human cells. Studies to date estimate that this variant is between 30-50% more infectious than the original strain.

Will this Have an Effect on the Efficacy of Vaccines?

Mutations arising in the spike protein of variants pose a potential problem for the efficacy of vaccines. This is due to the fact that vaccines to date target the spike protein, and so neutralizing antibodies and the T cell response are primed against the original spike protein structure. With regards the South African B1.351 variant, serum from individuals who received the Moderna mRNA-1273 vaccine were shown to have lower neutralization ability in in vitro assays. However, even though neutralization ability was lower, it was still significant.

A similar study demonstrated that neutralization of a virus containing three mutations from the South African variant from sera from individuals vaccinated with Pfizer/BioNTech BNT162b2 was lower than the UK variant. However, the study indicated that differences in neutralization was very small. This study indicates that the Pfizer/BioNtech vaccine still works against the South African strain, but is slightly less effective. Similarly, the AstraZeneca, Novavax and J&J vaccines also show slightly less protection.

A recent report in the New England Journal of Medicine evaluated a study group of 596,618 vaccinated people (matched to unvaccinated controls) in Israel for BNT162b2 COVID vaccine effectiveness. Their results indicated that BNT162b2 vaccination is highly effective in a real world population, and mirrors clinical trial results thus far.

Vaccines Penetrating the Market

Currently, there are a range of vaccines penetrating the COVID market, most notably using mRNA technology (Pfizer/BioNTech/Moderna/CureVac), recombinant proteins (Novavax), viral vectors (AstraZeneca/J&J/Gamaleya) and inactivated virus (Sinovac/Sinopharm/Bharat Biotech).

SARS-CoV-2 will continue to exist as influenza and RSV does, and so it will become an endemic virus in the future. It is forecast that we will always potentially be fighting a variant of the original virus and vaccines will adapt to this over time. Regulatory pathways will also need to adapt in concert.

Data Sources and Methodology

Based in Locations in Europe, our analyst team are all PhD-level experts and industry-experienced professionals. They pool resources, contacts, business acumen and technical experience to provide cutting edge insights for all of Kelly Scientific reports. Our senior analysts have at least ten years’ experience in major strategic corporations. Our methodologies are clearly defined from the outset. Initially a number of clear objectives are set, e.g., to identify the market size, segmentation, key players, SWOT analysis, influential technologies, and business and economic environments:

• By Company (e.g., Pfizer. BioNTech, Moderna, AstraZeneca, Novovax, J&J)
  By Geography (US, UK, EU, Japan, RoW)


• By Segment (vaccine technology – mRNA, Recombinant Protein, Viral Vectors, whole inactivated virus)

Key Strengths, Weaknesses and Threats Influencing Leading Player Position within the Market:

• Technologies Driving the Market


• Top Fastest Growing Market Segments and Emerging Opportunities


• Top Pharmaceutical Companies within the by Market Share and Revenue


• Comprehensive Product Portfolios, R&D Activity and Pipeline Therapeutics


• M&A Activity and Future Strategies of Top Pharmacos

Following this, we determine key financial data & business strategy information to give clients the most accurate information required to identify areas of profitable growth and what technical advantages are required in a competitive landscape:

• Company Financials, Sales & Revenue Figures


• Government advance purchase agreements (ADA’s) and funding


• Business Model Strategies for Diagnostic, Pharmaceutical and Biotechnology Companies

Market analysis is initiated using primary research tools such as speaking directly with end-users, identifying their needs and any un-met needs in the market place. This exploratory research identifies any specific requirements in the market, and is tailored specifically to niche markets such as COVID vaccines, immunotherapy, personalized medicine, targeted therapeutics and companion diagnostics, drug delivery systems, cosmetic surgery and services, and cancer biomarkers. At Kelly Scientific, we have a wide range of contacts within these niche areas that provide us with cutting edge insights to a marketplace that is beyond the reach of many. We also travel to a wide range of international conferences quarterly to source new data and trends from global experts.

Secondary research performed by Kelly Scientific is meticulously scrutinized and analysed prior to integration into a final report. We only use validated and confirmed sources of information from company specific corporate websites, annual reports, press-releases, government publications, international scientific and medical journals and research reports. All graphical and numerical data included in our reports are referenced and sourced accordingly. Specific websites are consulted and referenced throughout the including that of the Food and Drug Association (www.fda.gov), the National Cancer Institute, World Health Organization, PubMed, Clinicaltrials.gov and other government agencies worldwide. Kelly Scientific utilises the most recent statistical and numerical data available.

Together both primary and secondary research and also unique insights from the chief analysts and editor alike provide the client with a report that exceeds its competitors. We strive to out-perform our competitors, just like our clients.

The senior editor of the SARS-CoV-2 COVID Vaccine market analysis report obtained a Ph.D. in Medicine/Genetics/Immunology from the Royal College of Surgeons in Ireland, a M.Sc. in Biotechnology (NUIG) and an honours degree in Biochemistry from Trinity College Dublin. With many years of medical writing, publishing, market analysis and forecasting, the senior editor also has extensive knowledge of immunology, vaccine development, infectious diseases, diagnostic testing and molecular biology.

Countries Covered

North America, Europe, Japan, UK, RoW