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Mortgage Lending in the UK - Key Trends and Opportunities to 2020

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Date: 20-Jan-2016
No. of pages: 75
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Synopsis

A surge in mortgage lending was recorded during the second half of 2015, as customers took advantage of low interest rates, with the Governor of the Bank of England, Mark Carney, suggesting in November 2015 that the central bank rate may not rise until 2017.

Summary


  • The Buy-to-Let sector recorded substantial growth in 2015, as investors increasingly looked towards property in the absence of any favorable savings rates. With house prices continuing to rise and the buy-to-let making becoming a landlord more affordable this type of mortgage has risen from being a twentieth of all mortgages to a fifth in a single year. The availability of high loan-to-value (LTV) mortgages and even interest-only mortgages, combined with pension reforms in the March 2015 Budget ? allowing over 55s to receive a lump sum instead of annuities ? sparked the growth.

  • Mortgage affordability eased during the recession as the Bank of England reduced its policy interest rate to a record-low of 0.5% in 2009, and Funding for Lending provided 18 months of access to cheap bank finance. This prompted retail lenders to lower interest rates on tracker and fixed-rate mortgages during the review period (2009-2014), leading to lower-value loan repayments from 2009 onwards.

  • This trend continued in 2015, as HSBC became the first lender to launch a sub-2% five-year fixed mortgage in April, which triggered price war between lenders. Rates continued to plunge in 2015, with the average 75% two-year LTV mortgages as cheap as 1.6%. This has been a substantial factor behind driving the gross lending and the repayments markets, as consumers have been keen to lock themselves into the attractive rates.

  • A surge in mortgage lending was recorded during the second half of 2015, as customers took advantage of low interest rates, with the Governor of the Bank of England, Mark Carney, suggesting in November 2015 that the central bank rate may not rise until 2017. Total gross lending increased by 29.4% in 2015.

  • Although it looks as if the central bank rate will not rise until as late as 2017, the rate will increase at some point over the forecast period (2015?2019), which will increase repayment costs. The Mortgage Market Review (MMR) includes measures to check that all borrowers are able to afford the cost of any potential hike, so interest rate increases are likely to suppress growth in the market, if only temporarily.

  • With the demand for mortgages being so high, any interest rate hike is unlikely to lead to a decline in gross mortgage lending, although repayments are more likely to drop off as customers begin to struggle to make them.

  • Lending to first-time buyers had declined year-on-year to April 2015 following the implementation of the MMR in April 2014. The review includes measures to check that all borrowers can afford the cost of any potential hike, to the extent of looking through online bank statements and credit ratings, have made it harder for many to get on the property ladder.

  • The boom in buy-to-let lending has created a very saturated market with direct competition for first-time buyers, and it has certainly contributed to rising house prices, especially in London. Lending to first time buyers increased by 10% year-on-year to September 2015, as real wages continues to improve and demand remained strong.


Scope


  • This report provides market analysis, information and insights into the UK mortgage industry

  • It provides a breakdown of the types of mortgages offered in the UK

  • It analyses drivers and the outlook for the market

  • It provides information on the main banks in the UK market

  • It covers news and regulatory developments

  • It forecasts the future of the mortgage industry in the UK over the next five years


Reasons To Buy


  • Gain an understanding of the UK mortgage industry.

  • See monthly and annual statistics on every aspect of the market, both in written form and in graphs and tables.

  • Read analysis of the relevant market statistics, telling you what has been happening in the mortgage market, why it

  • has been happening and what we expect to happen over the coming years.

  • Read about all the economic factors impacting the industry.

  • Read about how individual banks and building societies are affecting the market, in terms of market share and innovation.


Key Highlights


  • Gross mortgage lending totaled GBP204.5 billion in 2014, representing a 15.0% increase over 2013.

  • This was the second-fastest annual growth rate recorded during the review period, after slowing from 22.3% the previous year.

Mortgage Lending in the UK - Key Trends and Opportunities to 2020

Table of Contents

1 Executive Summary

2 Introduction
2.1 What is this Report About?
2.2 Definitions
2.3 Methodology

3 Market Analysis
3.1 Gross Lending
3.1.1 By lender
3.1.2 By purpose
3.2 Outstanding Loans
3.3 Repayments
3.4 Net Lending
3.5 Mortgage Approvals
3.5.1 By value
3.5.2 By volume
3.5.3 Loan-to-value ratio
3.6 Mortgage Arrears
3.7 Interest Rates
3.8 Buy-to-Let Mortgages
3.9 First-Time Buyers
3.10 Mortgage Market Summary

4 Market Outlook
4.1 Forecasts

5 Economic Backdrop
5.1 Housing market
5.2 Real GDP growth
5.3 Labor Market Conditions
5.4 Central Bank Rate
5.5 Consumer Confidence
5.6 Inflation

6 Competitive Landscape
6.1 Market Shares
6.2 Mortgage Interest Rates
6.3 Mortgage Innovation

7 Regulation and Policy
7.1 Recent Changes
7.1.1 Help-to-Buy
7.1.2 MMR
7.2 Upcoming Regulations
7.2.1 Mortgage Credit Directive
7.2.2 Basel III

8 Deals
8.1 Zopa partners with Metro Bank
8.2 Nationwide Building Society Prices Offering of USD1.12 Billion Bond Due 2018
8.3 OneSavings Bank Acquires Portfolio of UK Second-Charge Mortgages
8.4 Legal & General to Acquire 100% Stake in New Life Home Finance

9 News
9.1 Nationwide: Strong Products and Customer Service Deliver Best Ever Results
9.2 Axis Bank to Launch Buy-to-Let Mortgage Product in UK
9.3 UK House Price Expectations fall to 18-Month Low: Knight Frank

10 UK Retail Banks
10.1 Barclays Plc - Company Overview
10.1.1 Barclays Plc - profile
10.1.2 Barclays PLC - main savings products
10.1.3 Barclays Plc - main competitors
10.1.4 Barclays Plc - board of directors
10.2 HSBC Plc - Company Overview
10.2.1 HSBC Bank Plc - profile
10.2.2 HSBC Bank Plc - main savings products
10.2.3 HSBC Bank Plc - main competitors
10.2.4 HSBC Bank Plc - board of directors
10.3 Lloyds Banking Group Plc - Company Overview
10.3.1 Lloyds Banking Group Plc - profile
10.3.2 Lloyds Banking Group Plc - main savings products
10.3.3 Lloyds Banking Group Plc - main competitors
10.3.4 Lloyds Banking Group - board of directors
10.4 National Savings and Investments - Company Overview
10.4.1 National Savings and Investments - profile
10.4.2 National Savings and Investments - main savings products
10.4.3 National Savings and Investments - main competitors
10.4.4 National Savings and Investments - board of directors
10.5 Nationwide Building Society - Company Overview
10.5.1 Nationwide Building Society - profile
10.5.2 Nationwide Building Society - main savings products
10.5.3 Nationwide Building Society - main competitors
10.5.4 Nationwide Building Society - board of directors
10.6 Santander UK Plc - Company Overview
10.6.1 Santander UK Plc - profile
10.6.2 Santander UK Plc - main savings products
10.6.3 Santander UK Plc - main competitors
10.6.4 Santander UK Plc - board of directors
10.7 The Royal Bank of Scotland Group - Company Overview
10.7.1 The Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc - profile
10.7.2 The Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc - main savings products
10.7.3 The Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc - main competitors
10.7.4 The Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc - board of directors

11 Statistics
11.1 Forecast Period: 2014-2018

12 Appendix
12.1 Methodology
12.2 Contact Timetric
12.3 About Timetric
12.4 Timetric's Services
12.5 Disclaimer

List of Tables

Table 1: Mortgage Market Definitions
Table 2: The UK - Mortgage Market Summary (GBP Billion), 2009-2013
Table 3: The UK Mortgage Market - Competitor APR (%), Financial Year 2014/15
Table 4: Recent and Upcoming Regulatory Changes
Table 5: Barclays Plc, Key Facts
Table 6: Barclays Plc, Main Savings Products
Table 7: Barclays Plc, Board of Directors
Table 8: HSBC Bank Plc, Key Facts
Table 9: HSBC Bank Plc, Main Savings Products
Table 10: HSBC Bank Plc, Board of Directors
Table 11: Lloyds Banking Group Plc, Key Facts
Table 12: Lloyds Banking Group Plc, Main Products
Table 13: Lloyds Banking Group Plc, Board of Directors
Table 14: National Savings and Investments, Key Facts
Table 15: National Savings and Investments, Main Products
Table 16: National Savings and Investments, Board of Directors
Table 17: Nationwide Building Society, Key Facts
Table 18: Nationwide Building Society, Main Products
Table 19: Nationwide Building Society, Board of Directors
Table 20: Santander UK Plc, Key Facts
Table 21: Santander UK Plc, Main Products
Table 22: Santander UK Plc, Board of Directors
Table 23: The Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc, Key Facts
Table 24: The Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc, Main Products
Table 25: The Royal Bank of Scotland Plc, Board of Directors
Table 26: The UK - Mortgages Market 2014-2018

List of Figures

Figure 1: UK Mortgages - Gross Lending (GBP Million), 2009-2014
Figure 2: UK Mortgages - Monthly Gross Lending (GBP Million), 2009-2015
Figure 3: UK Mortgages - Gross Lending by Lender (GBP Million), 2009-2014
Figure 4: UK Mortgages - Gross Lending by Purpose (%), 2012-2015
Figure 5: UK Mortgages - Breakdown of House Purchases Gross Lending (%), 2002-2015
Figure 6: UK Mortgages - Balance Outstanding (GBP Million), 2009-2015
Figure 7: UK Mortgages - Outstanding Mortgage Loan Accounts (Million), 2008-2014
Figure 8: UK Mortgages - Mortgage Repayments (GBP Million), 2009-2014
Figure 9: UK Mortgages - Monthly Repayments (GBP Million), 2009-2015
Figure 10: UK Mortgages - Net Lending (GBP Million), 2008-2014
Figure 11: UK Mortgages - Net Lending (GBP Million), 2009-2014
Figure 12: UK Mortgages - Approvals by Value (GBP Million), 2009-2014
Figure 13: UK Mortgages - Share of Value of Approvals by Purpose (%), 2014
Figure 14: UK Mortgages - Approvals by Volume 2009-2014
Figure 15: UK Mortgages - Volume and Value of Approvals, 2013-2015
Figure 16: UK Mortgages - Volume of Approvals by Purpose, 2014
Figure 17: UK Mortgages - Approvals by Loan-to-Value (%), 2008-2014
Figure 18: UK Mortgages - Outstanding Arrears Cases 2009-2014
Figure 19: The UK - Average Mortgage Interest Rates (Percentage, End-Year), 2009-2015
Figure 20: The UK - Average Mortgage Interest Rates (Percentage, End-Year), 2009-2015
Figure 21: The UK - First Time Buyer Number and Value of Loans 2009-2015
Figure 22: The UK - Regional House Prices (GBP), 2008-2014
Figure 23: UK Mortgages - Gross Lending (GBP Million), 2009-2020
Figure 24: UK Mortgages - Balances Outstanding (GBP Million), 2009-2020
Figure 25: The UK - Forecasted Mortgage Arrears, by Number, 2009-2020
Figure 26: The UK - Average House Price Growth Forecast, (%), 2014-2020
Figure 27: The UK - Average House Prices (GBP), 2005-2014
Figure 28: The UK - Average House Prices by Type of Buyer (GBP), 2008-2014
Figure 29: The UK - Annual House Price-to-Earnings Ratio (%), 2009-2015 Q1
Figure 30: The UK - Housing Construction Growth (%), 2007-2014
Figure 31: The UK - Real GDP Growth by Quarter (%), 2008-2014
Figure 32: The UK - Unemployment and Redundancy Rates (%), 2004-2014
Figure 33: The UK - Average Weekly Earnings - Total Pay (GBP), 2004-2014
Figure 34: The UK - Bank of England Rate (%), 2004-2015
Figure 35: The UK - Consumer Confidence Index
Figure 36: The UK - Consumer Price Inflation (%), 2009-2015
Figure 37: Mortgage Balances Outstanding - Market Shares of the Largest Mortgage Lenders in the UK (%), 2014
Figure 38: Mortgage Gross Lending - Market Shares of the Largest Mortgage Lenders in the UK (%), 2013
Figure 39:UK - Building Societies' Share of the Mortgage Market, 2010-2015
Figure 40: The UK - Banking Regulatory Framework

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