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Mortgage Lending in the UK - Key Trends and Opportunities to 2019

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Date: 31-May-2015
No. of pages: 73
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Synopsis

The longer-term themes throughout the report's review period were that the number of accounts fell by 2.4%, while total outstanding balances remained relatively stable, up by 1.0%, and total gross lending grew by 8.5%. This was also reflected in the number of approvals declining by 0.15% between 2009 and 2014, while the value increased by 8.9%.

Summary


  • Interest rates are at their lowest levels since individual savings accounts (ISAs) began, which significantly reduces consumers' commitment to saving. As a result, consumers - those who can afford to save - are starting to opt either for stocks and shares accounts or deciding to pay off long-standing debts with higher interest rates. The average rate offered on cash ISAs fell from 2.55% at the start of 2012 to 1.74% in February 2013, and to just 1.64% at the start of 2014. The average rates for savings accounts fell from 5.09% in 2008 and 1.48% in 2014, which highlights the impact of the recession and the availability of cheap funds for the banks.

  • Eight out of every 10 ISAs opened in FY2013-2014 were still cash ISAs however, as savers remained risk-averse, despite banks offering the worst interest rates on record. Stocks and shares ISAs are starting to recover however, following a substantial decline in the number for accounts from FY2010-2011 to FY2011-2012. The amount subscribed to stocks and shares ISAs has increased considerably since FY2009 - from GBP12.5 million to GBP18.4 million - which suggests that a smaller percentage of wealthier people, who can afford the increased risk, are filling these ISAs to the limit.

  • The BoE's central bank rate has remained at 0.5% since 2009, providing banks with an unparalleled level of cheap funds, meaning that the banks have significantly less need to compete for funds from consumers. The introduction of the government's Funding for Lending scheme - providing up to GBP80.0 billion to major banks to subsidize mortgage lending - has further reduced the banks' need for funds, which has had a considerable impact on the savings market. There have been an estimated 2,560 savings products cut since the introduction of the Funding for Lending scheme in August 2012, as of November 2014.

  • Real wages endured negative growth for most of the 2008-2014 period, despite positive growth for the last three months of 2014. This, combined with soaring house prices and energy bills, means that consumers were squeezed during the recession, and are subsequently less able to set aside amounts every month for savings accounts. House prices in the UK increased by 18.6% between 2009 and 2014 - rising by 9.9% in 2014 alone, according to Nationwide's house price index. Research by consumer body Which? found that the price of gas and electricity grew by 127% from 2003-2004 to 2013-2014, and that the average household is paying GBP410.0 more per year for energy, despite using less.

  • Several changes have been made to ISA regulation to try to stimulate the industry in the face of low interest rates, since the Funding for Lending scheme. New ISAs (NISAs) were introduced in the April 2014 budget, which increased the upper annual limit for an individual to GBP15,000.0. Tax advantages were also introduced in Chancellor George Osborne's 2014 Autumn Statement, allowing ISAs to pass tax-free to a spouse after death. Osborne also announced that there will no longer be capital gains tax for profits of under GBP11,000.0 on stocks and shares ISAs.


Scope

  • This report provides market analysis, information and insights into the UK mortgage industry

  • It provides a breakdown of the types of mortgage loans and offers in the UK

  • It analyses drivers and the outlook for the market

  • It provides information on the main banks in the UK market

  • It covers News and regulatory developments

  • It covers all mortgage statistics in great depth, including gross lending, repayments, net lending, outstanding balances, mortgage arrears and others


Reasons To Buy

  • Gain an understanding of the UK mortgage industry, with monthly and annual statistics on every aspect of the UK mortgage market, both in written form and in graphs and tables.

  • Read analysis of relevant market statistics and descriptions of what has been happening in the mortgage market, why it has been happening, and what to expect over the coming years.

  • Read about economic factors impacting the UK mortgage market.

  • Learn how individual banks and building societies are affecting the market, in terms of market share and innovation.


Key Highlights

Despite ideal conditions and steady growth in terms of approvals and outstanding balances through the early parts of 2015, the market is relatively subdued due to uncertainty surrounding the 2015 general election and the impact of the MMR.

Mortgage Lending in the UK - Key Trends and Opportunities to 2019

Table of Contents

1 Executive Summary

2 Introduction
2.1 What is this Report About?
2.2 Definitions
2.3 Methodology

3 Market Analysis
3.1 Market Size
3.2 Gross Lending
3.2.1 By lender
3.2.2 By purpose
3.3 Repayments
3.4 Net Lending
3.5 Mortgage Approvals
3.5.1 By value
3.5.2 By volume
3.5.3 Loan-to-value ratio
3.6 Mortgage Arrears
3.7 Interest Rates
3.8 Market Outlook
3.8.1 Forecasts
3.9 Distribution Channels
3.10 Buy-to-Let Mortgages
3.11 First-Time Buyers
3.12 Mortgage Market Summary

4 Economic Backdrop
4.1 Housing market
4.2 Real GDP growth
4.3 Labor Market Conditions
4.4 Interest Rates
4.5 Consumer Confidence
4.6 Inflation

5 Competitive Landscape
5.1 Market Shares
5.2 Mortgage Interest Rates
5.3 Mortgage Innovation

6 Regulation and Policy
6.1 Recent Changes
6.1.1 Help to Buy
6.1.2 MMR
6.2 Upcoming Regulations
6.2.1 Enhanced product sales data requirements
6.2.2 Mortgage Credit Directive
6.2.3 Basel III

7 Deals
7.1 Zopa partners with Metro Bank
7.2 Nationwide Building Society Prices Offering of US$1.12 Billion Bond Due 2018
7.3 OneSavings Bank Acquires Portfolio of UK Second-Charge Mortgages
7.4 Legal & General to Acquire 100% Stake in New Life Home Finance

8 News
8.1 Nationwide flexes its mutual muscles as strong products and customer service help deliver strongest ever results
8.2 Paragon Mortgages sees strong 2015 growth
8.3 Axis Bank to launch buy-to-let mortgage product in UK
8.4 UK House price expectations fall to 18-month low: Knight Frank

9 UK Retail Banks
9.1 Barclays Plc - Company Overview
9.1.1 Barclays Plc - profile
9.1.2 Barclays Plc - main mortgage products
9.1.3 Barclays Plc - main competitors
9.1.4 Barclays Plc - board of directors
9.2 HSBC Bank Plc - Company Overview
9.2.1 HSBC Bank Plc - profile
9.2.2 HSBC Bank Plc - main mortgage products
9.2.3 HSBC Bank Plc - main competitors
9.2.4 HSBC Bank Plc - board of directors
9.3 Lloyds Banking Group Plc - Company Overview
9.3.1 Lloyds Banking Group Plc - profile
9.3.2 Lloyds Banking Group Plc - main mortgage product
9.3.3 Lloyds Banking Group Plc - main competitors
9.3.4 Lloyds Banking Group Plc - board of directors
9.4 Nationwide Building Society - Company Overview
9.4.1 Nationwide Building Society - profile
9.4.2 Nationwide Building Society - main mortgage products
9.4.3 Nationwide Building Society - main competitors
9.4.4 Nationwide Building Society - board of directors
9.5 Santander UK Plc - Company Overview
9.5.1 Santander UK Plc - profile
9.5.2 Santander UK Plc - main mortgage products
9.5.3 Santander UK Plc - main competitors
9.5.4 Santander UK Plc - board of directors
9.6 The Royal Bank of Scotland Group - Company Overview
9.6.1 The Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc - profile
9.6.2 The Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc - main mortgage products
9.6.3 The Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc - main competitors
9.6.4 The Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc - board of directors

10 Statistics
10.1 Forecast Period: 2014-2018

11 Appendix
11.1 Methodology
11.2 Contact Timetric
11.3 About Timetric
11.4 Timetric's Services
11.5 Disclaimer

List of Tables

Table 1: Mortgage Market Definitions
Table 2: The UK - Mortgage Market Summary (GBP Billion), 2009-2013
Table 3: The UK Mortgage Market - Competitor APR (%), Financial Year 2014/15
Table 4: Recent and Upcoming Regulatory Changes
Table 5: Barclays Plc, Key Facts
Table 6: Barclays Plc, Main Mortgage Products
Table 7: Barclays Plc, Board of Directors
Table 8: HSBC Bank Plc, Key Facts
Table 9: HSBC Bank Plc, Main Mortgage Products
Table 10: HSBC Bank Plc, Board of Directors
Table 11: Lloyds Banking Group Plc, Key Facts
Table 12: Lloyds Banking Group Plc, Main Mortgage Products
Table 13: Lloyds Banking Group Plc, Board of Directors
Table 14: Nationwide Building Society, Key Facts
Table 15: Nationwide Building Society, Main Mortgage Products
Table 16: Nationwide Building Society, Board of Directors
Table 17: Santander UK Plc, Key Facts
Table 18: Santander UK Plc, Main Mortgage Products
Table 19: Santander UK Plc, Board of Directors
Table 20: The Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc, Key Facts
Table 21: The Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc, Main Mortgage Products
Table 22: The Royal Bank of Scotland Plc, Board of Directors
Table 23: The UK - Mortgages Market 2014-2018

List of Figures

Figure 1: UK Mortgages - Balance Outstanding (GBP Million), 2009-2015
Figure 2: UK Mortgages - Outstanding Mortgage Loan Accounts (Million), 2008-2014
Figure 3: UK Mortgages - Gross Lending (GBP Million), 2009-2014
Figure 4: UK Mortgages - Monthly Gross Lending (GBP Million), 2009-2015
Figure 5: UK Mortgages - Gross Lending by Lender (GBP Million), 2009-2014
Figure 6: UK Mortgages - Gross Lending by Purpose (%), 2012-2014
Figure 7: UK Mortgages - Gross Lending for House Purchases (%), 2002-2014
Figure 8: UK Mortgages - Mortgage Repayments (GBP Million), 2009-2014
Figure 9: UK Mortgages - Monthly Repayments (GBP Million), 2009-2014
Figure 10: UK Mortgages - Net Lending (GBP Million), 2008-2013
Figure 11: UK Mortgages - Net Lending (GBP Million), 2009-2014
Figure 12: UK Mortgages - Approvals by Value (GBP Million), 2009-2014
Figure 13: UK Mortgages - Share of Value of Approvals by Purpose (%), 2014
Figure 14: UK Mortgages - Approvals by Volume 2009-2014
Figure 15: UK Mortgages - Volume and Value of Approvals, 2013-2014
Figure 16: UK Mortgages - Volume of Approvals by Purpose, 2014
Figure 17: UK Mortgages - Approvals by Loan-to-Value (%), 2008-2014
Figure 18: UK Mortgages - Outstanding Arrears Cases 2009-2014
Figure 19: The UK - Average Mortgage Interest Rates (%, End-Year), 2009-2015
Figure 20: The UK - Regional House Prices (GBP), 2008-2014
Figure 21: UK Mortgages - Gross Lending (GBP Million), 2009-2019
Figure 22: UK Mortgages - Balances Outstanding (GBP Million), 2009-2019
Figure 23: The UK - Forecasted Mortgage Arrears, by Number, 2009-2019
Figure 24: The UK - Average House Price Growth Forecast, (%), 2014-2020
Figure 25: The UK - Mortgage Distribution Channels, 2005-2012
Figure 26: The UK - Average House Prices (GBP), 2005-2014
Figure 27: The UK - Average House Prices by Type of Buyer (GBP), 2008-2014
Figure 28: The UK - Annual House Price-to-Earnings Ratio (%), 2009-2015 Q1
Figure 29: The UK - Housing Construction Growth (%), 2007-2014
Figure 30: The UK - Real GDP Growth (%), 2008-2014
Figure 31: The UK - Unemployment and Redundancy Rates (%), 2004-2014
Figure 32: The UK - Average Weekly Earnings - Total Pay (GBP), 2004-2014
Figure 33: The UK - Bank of England Rate (%), 2004-2015
Figure 34: The UK - Consumer Confidence Index
Figure 35: The UK - Consumer Price Inflation (%), 2009-2015
Figure 36: Mortgage Balances Outstanding - Market Shares of the Largest Mortgage Lenders in the UK (%), 2014
Figure 37: Mortgage Gross Lending - Market Shares of the Largest Mortgage Lenders in the UK (%), 2013
Figure 38: The UK - Banking Regulatory Framework

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