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Future of the Swedish Defense Industry - Market Attractiveness, Competitive Landscape and Forecasts to 2023

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Date: 04-Oct-2018
No. of pages: 127
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The Future of the Swedish Defense Industry Market Attractiveness, Competitive Landscape and Forecasts to 2023, published by Strategic Defence Intelligence, provides readers with detailed analysis of both historic and forecast defense industry values, factors influencing demand, the challenges faced by industry participants, analysis of industry leading companies, and key news.

Synopsis

This report offers detailed analysis of the Swedish defense industry with market size forecasts covering the next five years. This report will also analyze factors that influence demand for the industry, key market trends, and challenges faced by industry participants.

In particular, it provides an in-depth analysis of the following:


  • The Swedish defense industry market size and drivers: detailed analysis of the Swedish defense industry during 2019-2023, including highlights of the demand drivers and growth stimulators for the industry. It also provides a snapshot of the country’s expenditure and modernization patterns

  • Budget allocation and key challenges: insights into procurement schedules formulated within the country and a breakdown of the defense budget with respect to capital expenditure and revenue expenditure. It also details the key challenges faced by defense market participants within the country

  • Porter’s Five Force analysis of the Swedish defense industry: analysis of the market characteristics by determining the bargaining power of suppliers, bargaining power of buyers, threat of substitution, intensity of rivalry, and barriers to entry

  • Import and Export Dynamics: analysis of prevalent trends in the country’s imports and exports over the last five years

  • Market opportunities: details of the top five defense investment opportunities over the next 10 years

  • Competitive landscape and strategic insights: analysis of the competitive landscape of the Swedish defense industry. It provides an overview of key players, together with insights such as key alliances, strategic initiatives, and a brief financial analysis


Scope


  • Sweden, the fifth-largest country in Europe with respect to land area, is expected to invest US$34.7 billion cumulatively in strengthening its armed forces over the forecast period.

  • Despite a considerable increase in the country’s total defense budget, military expenditure as a percentage of GDP is predicted to maintain an average of 1.01% during the forecast period.

  • The arms procurement over the forecast period, with an increased focus on aircraft, anti-submarine warfare equipment, and submarines, is to be the driving factor in increasing the capital expenditure. The average allocation for capital expenditure is expected to be 36.5% over the forecast period.

  • The MoD is expected to invest in multirole aircraft, artillery systems, covertte modernization, engineering support vehicles, mine sweeper vessels, transport aircraft, training aircraft, anti ship missiles, maritime patrol and anti-submarine warfare assets among others.


Reasons to buy


  • This report will give the user confidence to make the correct business decisions based on a detailed analysis of the Swedish defense industry market trends for the coming five years

  • The market opportunity section will inform the user about the various military requirements that are expected to generate revenues during the forecast period. The description includes technical specifications, recent orders, and the expected investment pattern by the country during the forecast period

  • Detailed profiles of the top domestic and foreign defense manufacturers with information about their products, alliances, recent contract wins, and financial analysis wherever available. This will provide the user with a total competitive landscape of the sector

  • A deep qualitative analysis of the Swedish defense industry covering sections including demand drivers, Porter’s Five Forces Analysis, Key Trends and Growth Stimulators, and latest industry contracts

Future of the Swedish Defense Industry - Market Attractiveness, Competitive Landscape and Forecasts to 2023

Table of Contents

1. Introduction 8
1.1. What is this Report About? 8
1.2. Definitions 8
1.3. Summary Methodology 11
1.4. About Strategic Defence Intelligence 13

2. Executive Summary 14

3. Market Attractiveness and Emerging Opportunities 16
3.1.1. Primary Threat Perception 17
3.1.2. Military Doctrine and Strategy 18
3.1.3. Military Fleet Size 24
3.1.4. Procurement Programs 27
3.1.5. Social, Political and Economic Environment and Support for Defense Projects 30
3.1.6. Political and Strategic Alliances 31
3.2. Defense Market Size, Historical and Forecast 32
3.2.1. Swedish defense expenditure expected to register a CAGR of 2.14% during the forecast period 32
3.2.2. Modernization initiatives, peacekeeping missions, and perceived threats from Russia are expected to fuel Swedish defense expenditure 34
3.2.3. Defense expenditure as a percentage of GDP is expected to decline marginally during the forecast period 36
3.3. Analysis of Defense Budget Allocation 38
3.3.1. Capital expenditure allocation is expected to increase during the forecast period 38
3.3.2. Capital expenditure is expected to grow at a CAGR of 2.40% over the forecast period 40
3.3.3. Per-capita expenditure is expected to increase during the forecast period 42
3.3.4. Others segment accounts for a majority of the defense budget with an average share of 37.3% over forecast period 44
3.3.5. Others segment to account for the largest share of Swedish defense budget 46
3.4. Homeland Security Market Size and Forecast 50
3.4.1. Swedish police budget is expected to increase during the forecast period 50
3.4.2. Homeland security expenditure will be driven by Sweden’s efforts to counter organized crime 50
3.4.3. Threat from international terrorist organizations 51
3.4.4. Sweden is faced with “Moderate risk” of terrorism 53
3.4.5. Sweden faces moderate threat from terrorist organizations 54
3.4.6. Sweden has a terrorism index score of 3.8 56
3.5. Benchmarking with Key Global Markets 57
3.5.1. Swedish defense expenditure is expected to remain modest during the forecast period 57
3.5.2. The country’s defense budget is moderate compared to other leading spenders 59
3.5.3. Sweden allocates a lower share of GDP to defense compared to countries with significant global defense expenditure 60
3.6. Market Opportunities: Key Trends and Drivers 61
3.6.1. Top 10 Defense Sectors by Value (US$ Million) - Projections over 2018-2023 61
3.6.2. Land-Based C4ISR 62
3.6.3. Fighters and Multi-role aircraft 63
3.6.4. Cyber Security 64

4. Defense Procurement Market Dynamics 65
4.1. Import Market Dynamics 67
4.1.1. Defense imports registered a decline during 2013-2017 67
4.1.2. Sweden aims to diversify arms imports 68
4.1.3. Aircraft accounted for the majority of defense imports 69
4.2. Export Market Dynamics 70
4.2.1. Sweden emerged as the 14th largest global arms exporter during 2013-2017 70
4.2.2. Swedish defense exports tend to be inclined towards Asian and Middle-Eastern countries 71
4.2.3. Swedish forays into non-European defense markets 72
4.2.4. Aircraft account for the majority of Swedish defense exports 73

5. Industry Dynamics 74
5.1. Five Forces Analysis 74
5.1.1. Bargaining power of supplier: low 75
5.1.2. Bargaining power of buyer: high 75
5.1.3. Barrier to entry: medium 75
5.1.4. Intensity of rivalry: high 75
5.1.5. Threat of Substitution: high 75

6. Market Entry Strategy 76
6.1. Market Regulation 76
6.1.1. Swedish offset policy facilitates defense partnerships with different countries 76
6.1.2. Swedish defense industry is open to foreign direct investment 77
6.2. Market Entry Route 78
6.2.1. Budgeting Process 78
6.2.2. Procurement Policy and Process 79
6.2.3. Acquisition of a domestic defense company is preferred entry route 80
6.2.4. Foreign OEMs gain industry access through joint research and development programs 80
6.2.5. Foreign investors enter the market through direct sales 80
6.3. Key Challenges 82
6.3.1. Cancellation of projects due to low defense budget deters investors from entering the market 82
6.3.2. The absence of multipliers in the offset policy discourages foreign suppliers 82

7. Competitive Landscape and Strategic Insights 83
7.1. Competitive Landscape Overview 83
7.2. Key Public Sector Companies 85
7.2.1. SAAB - Overview 85
7.2.2. SAAB - Major Products and Services 85
7.2.3. SAAB - Recent Announcements and Strategic Initiatives 86
7.2.4. SAAB - Alliances 88
7.2.5. SAAB - Recent Contract Wins 90
7.2.6. SAAB - Financial Analysis 96
7.3. Key Private Sector Companies 98
7.3.1. BAE Systems AB - Overview 98
7.3.2. BAE Systems AB - Major Products 98
7.3.3. BAE Systems AB - Recent Announcements and Strategic Initiatives 99
7.3.4. BAE Systems AB - Alliances 99
7.3.5. BAE Systems AB - Recent Contract Wins 100
7.3.6. Nammo AS - Overview 101
7.3.7. Nammo AS - Major Products and Services 101
7.3.8. Nammo AS - Recent Announcements and Strategic Initiatives 101
7.3.9. Nammo AS - Alliances 102
7.3.10. Dynasafe AB - Overview 103
7.3.11. Dynasafe AB - Major Products and Services 103
7.3.12. Dynasafe AB - Recent Announcements and Strategic Initiatives 103
7.3.13. Dynasafe AB - Recent Contract Wins 104
7.3.14. Scanjack AB - Overview 105
7.3.15. Scanjack AB - Major Products and Services 105
7.3.16. Scanjack AB - Recent Announcements and Strategic Initiatives 105
7.3.17. Scanjack AB - Recent Contract Wins 105
7.3.18. Åkers Krutbruk Protection AB - Overview 106
7.3.19. Åkers Krutbruk Protection AB - Major Products and Services 106
7.3.20. Åkers Krutbruk Protection AB - Recent Announcements and Strategic Initiatives 106
7.3.21. Åkers Krutbruk Protection AB - Alliances 107
7.3.22. Åkers Krutbruk Protection AB - Recent Contract Wins 107
7.3.23. Logica - Overview 108
7.3.24. Logica - Major Products 108
7.3.25. Logica - Alliances 108
7.3.26. Logica - Recent Contract Wins 108
7.3.27. Niscayah - Overview 109
7.3.28. Niscayah - Major Products 109
7.3.29. Niscayah - Recent Announcements and Strategic Initiatives 109
7.3.30. Niscayah - Alliances 109
7.3.31. Niscayah - Recent Contract Wins 110

8. Business Environment and Country Risk 111
8.1. Economic Performance 111
8.1.1. GDP Per Capita 111
8.1.2. GDP, Current Prices (US$ Billions) 112
8.1.3. Exports of goods and services, current prices (LCU billions) 113
8.1.4. Imports of goods and services, current prices (US$ billions) 114
8.1.5. Gross National Disposable Income 115
8.1.6. Local Currency Unit per US$ (period average) 116
8.1.7. Market Capitalization of Listed Companies (US$ Billions) 117
8.1.8. Market Capitalization of Listed Companies (% of GDP) 118
8.1.9. Government Cash Surplus/Deficit as % of GDP (LCU) 119
8.1.10. Goods Exports as % of GDP 120
8.1.11. Goods Imports as % of GDP 121
8.1.12. Services Imports as % of GDP 122
8.1.13. Services Exports as % of GDP 123
8.1.14. Foreign Direct Investment, net (BoP, current US$ Billions) 124
8.1.15. Net Foreign Direct Investment as % of GDP 125
8.1.16. Mining, Manufacturing, Utilities Output (LCU Billion) 126

9. Appendix 127
9.1. About SDI 127
9.2. Disclaimer 127

List of Tables

Table 1: Key Swedish Land Forces Procurement and Modernization Programs 20
Table 2: Key Swedish Naval Forces Procurement and Modernization Programs 21
Table 3: Key Swedish Air Force Procurement and Modernization Programs 23
Table 4: Swedish - Army Strength, 2018 24
Table 5: Swedish - Air Force Strength, 2018 25
Table 6: Swedish - Navy Strength, 2018 26
Table 7: Swedish - Ongoing Development and Procurement Programs, 2018 27
Table 8: Swedish - Future Procurement Programs, 2018 28
Table 9: Swedish - Top Defense Procurement Programs by Value (US$ Million), 2018-2023 29
Table 10: Swedish Defense and Security Expenditure (SEK Billion & US$ Billion), 2014-2023 32
Table 11: Swedish GDP Growth v/s. Defense Expenditure as Percentage of GDP Growth, 2014 -2023 36
Table 12: Swedish Defense Budget Split Between Capital and Revenue Expenditure (%), 2014-2023 38
Table 13: Swedish Defense Capital Expenditure, (SEK Million & US$ Billion), 2014-2023 40
Table 14: Swedish Per Capita Defense Expenditure (US$), 2014-2023 42
Table 15: Swedish Defense Expenditure Breakdown (%), 2014-2023 44
Table 16: Swedish - Defense Budget Breakdown by Service (SEK Billion), 2014-2023 46
Table 17: Swedish - Defense Budget Breakdown by Service ( US$ Billion), 2014-2023 48
Table 18: Swedish Homeland Security Expenditure, (SEK Billion & US$ Billion), 2014-2023 51
Table 19: Terrorism Index, 2018 54
Table 20: Benchmarking with Key Markets - 2014-2018 vs. 2019-2023 57
Table 21: Top Sweden Defense Sectors by Value (US$ Million), 2018-2023 61
Table 22: Top Country Ranking by Arms Exports, 2013-2017 70
Table 23: Swedish Defense Offset Program 76
Table 24: Swedish Budget Formation Timetable 78
Table 25: Competitive Landscape of the Swedish Defense Industry 83
Table 26: Top Defense Suppliers in the Swedish Defense Industry - By Value (US$ Million) 2018-2023 84
Table 27: SAAB - Major Products and Services 85
Table 28: SAAB - Alliances 88
Table 29: SAAB - Recent Contract Wins 90
Table 30: BAE Systems AB - Major Products 98
Table 31: BAE Systems AB - Alliances 99
Table 32: BAE Systems AB - Recent Contract Wins 100
Table 33: Nammo AS - Major Products and Services 101
Table 34: Nammo AS - Alliances 102
Table 35: Dynasafe AB - Main Products 103
Table 36: Dynasafe AB - Recent Contract Wins 104
Table 37: Scanjack AB - Major Products 105
Table 38: Scanjack AB - Recent Contract Wins 105
Table 39: Akers Krutbruk Protection AB - Major Products and Services 106
Table 40: Akers Krutbruk Protection AB - Alliances 107
Table 41: Akers Krutbruk Protection AB - Recent Contract Wins 107
Table 42: Logica - Major Products 108
Table 43: Logica - Alliances 108
Table 44: Logica - Recent Contract Wins 108
Table 45: Niscayah - Major Products 109
Table 46: Niscayah - Alliances 109
Table 47: Niscayah - Recent Contract Wins 110

List of Figures

Figure 1: Swedish Defense Expenditure (SEK Billion), 2014-2023 33
Figure 2: Swedish Defense Expenditure (US$ Billion), 2014-2023 33
Figure 3: Swedish GDP Growth vs. Defense Expenditure as Percentage of GDP, 2014-2023 37
Figure 4: Swedish Defense Budget Split Between Capital and Revenue Expenditure (%), 2014-2023 39
Figure 5: Swedish Defense Capital Expenditure (SEK Billion), 2014-2023 41
Figure 6: Swedish Defense Capital Expenditure (US$ Billion), 2014-2023 41
Figure 7: Swedish Per Capita Defense Expenditure (US$), 2014-2023 43
Figure 8: Swedish Defense Expenditure Breakdown (%), 2014-2023 45
Figure 9: Swedish - Defense Budget Breakdown by Service (SEK Billion), 2014-2023 47
Figure 10: Swedish - Defense Budget Breakdown by Service (US$ Billion), 2014-2023 49
Figure 11: Swedish Homeland Security Expenditure (SEK Billion), 2014-2023 52
Figure 12: Swedish Homeland Security Expenditure (US$ Billion), 2014-2023 52
Figure 13: Terrorism Heat Map, 2018 53
Figure 14: Terrorism Index, 2018 56
Figure 15: Benchmarking with Key Markets, 2014-2018 vs. 2019-2023 58
Figure 16: Benchmarking with World’s Largest Defense Spenders (US$ Billion), 2014 and 2023 59
Figure 17: Benchmarking with Large Defense Spenders as % of GDP - 2018 60
Figure 18: Land-Based C4ISR (US$ Million), 2018-2023 62
Figure 19: Fighters & Multi-Role Aircraft (US$ Million), 2018-2023 63
Figure 20: Cyber-Security (US$ Million), 2018-2023 64
Figure 21: Top Swedish Defense Procurements in Terms of Their Supplier Relationships 66
Figure 22: Swedish Defense Import Trend (US$ Million), 2013-2017 (TIV values) 67
Figure 23: Swedish Defense Imports by Country (%), 2013-2017 (TIV values) 68
Figure 24: Swedish Defense Imports by Weapon Category (%), 2013-2017 69
Figure 25: Swedish Defense Export Trend (US$ Million), 2013-2017 (TIV values) 71
Figure 26: Swedish Defense Export Trend by Country (%), 2013-2017 (TIV values) 72
Figure 27: Swedish Defense Export Trend by Weapon Category (%), 2013-2017 (TIV values) 73
Figure 28: Industry Dynamics - Porter’s Five Forces Analysis 74
Figure 29: Swedish FMV Organization Chart 79
Figure 30: SAAB - Revenue Trend Analysis (SEK Billion), 2013-2017 96
Figure 31: SAAB - Operating Profit Trend Analysis (SEK Million), 2013-2017 97
Figure 32: SAAB - Net Profit Trend Analysis (SEK Million), 2013-2017 97
Figure 33: Swedish GDP Per Capita (US$), 2015-2025 111
Figure 34: Swedish GDP at Current Prices (US$ Billion), 2015-2025 112
Figure 35: Swedish Exports of Goods and Services, Current Prices (LCU Billion), 2005-2014 113
Figure 36: Swedish Imports of Goods and Services, Current Prices (US$ Billion), 2005-2014 114
Figure 37: Swedish Gross National Disposable Income, 2005-2014 115
Figure 38: Local Currency Unit per US$, 2015-2024 116
Figure 39: Market Capitalization of Listed Companies in Sweden (US$ Billion), 2005-2012 117
Figure 40: Swedish Market Capitalization of Listed Companies (% of GDP), 2005-2012 118
Figure 41: Swedish Government Cash Surplus/ Deficit as % of GDP (LCU), 2005-2012 119
Figure 42: Swedish Goods Exports as % of GDP, 2005-2014 120
Figure 43: Swedish Goods Imports as % of GDP, 2005-2014 121
Figure 44: Swedish Services Imports as % of GDP, 2005-2014 122
Figure 45: Swedish Services Exports as % of GDP, 2002-2011 123
Figure 46: Swedish Foreign Direct Investment, net (BoP, current US$ Billion), 2005-2014 124
Figure 47: Swedish Net Foreign Direct Investment as % of GDP, 2005-2014 125
Figure 48: Mining, Manufacturing, Utilities Output (LCU Billion), 2005-2014 126

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