Future of the Netherlands’ Defense Industry - Market Attractiveness, Competitive Landscape and Forecasts to 2023

Future of the Netherlands’ Defense Industry - Market Attractiveness, Competitive Landscape and Forecasts to 2023

Table of Contents

1. Introduction 8
1.1. What is this Report About? 8
1.2. Definitions 8
1.3. Summary Methodology 10
1.4. About Strategic Defence Intelligence 11

2. Executive Summary 12

3. Market Attractiveness and Emerging Opportunities 14
3.1. Current Market Scenario 15
3.1.1. Primary threat perception 15
3.1.2. Military Doctrine & Strategy 16
3.1.3. Military Fleet Size 20
3.1.4. Procurement Programs 23
3.1.5. Ongoing procurement programs 23
3.1.6. Future procurement programs 24
3.1.7. Top Procurement Programs By Value (US$ Million) 2018-2023 25
3.1.8. Social, Political and Economic Environment & Support for Defense Projects 26
3.1.9. Political & Strategic Alliances 27
3.2. Defense Market Size Historical and Forecast 28
3.2.1. Netherland defense budget to increase at a CAGR of 4.07% over the forecast period 28
3.2.2. Military modernization, and commitment levels to NATO, UN and EU stipulations 30
3.2.3. Netherlands defense expenditure as a percentage of GDP expected to decrease 31
3.3. Analysis of Defense Budget Allocation 33
3.3.1. Share of Capital Expenditure expected to average 22.2% over forecast period 33
3.3.2. Capital expenditure expected to increase at a CAGR of 3.71% over the forecast period 35
3.3.3. The Others segment accounted for the largest percentage share 37
3.3.4. Army will account for the second highest share in the Netherlands defense budget 39
3.3.5. Per capita defense expenditure set to increase 43
3.4. Homeland Security Market Size and Forecast 45
3.4.1. Homeland security market is expected to register a CAGR of 4.30% over the forecast period 45
3.4.2. Counter measures for drug trafficking and terrorism to drive homeland security expenditure 47
3.4.3. Netherlands falls under the “moderate risk of terrorism” category 48
3.4.4. The Netherlands faces some level of threat from foreign terrorist organizations 49
3.4.5. Netherlands has a terrorism index score of 2.4 51
3.5. Benchmarking with Key Global Markets 52
3.5.1. Netherlands defense budget expected to be marginally increase over the forecast period 52
3.5.2. Netherlands military budget is limited compared to other countries 54
3.5.3. The Netherlands is expected to spend an average of 1.5% of GDP on defense over the forecast period 55
3.6. Market Opportunities: Key Trends and Growth Stimulators 56
3.6.1. Top 10 Defense market sectors by value (US$ Million) - Projections over period 2018-2023 56
3.6.2. Land-Based C4ISR 57
3.6.3. Fighters and multi-role aircraft 58
3.6.4. Networking 59

4. Defense Procurement Market Dynamics 60
4.1. Import Market Dynamics 62
4.1.1. Defense imports are expected to increase slightly over the forecast period 62
4.1.2. US was the leading supplier of arms to Netherlands during 2012-2016 63
4.1.3. Aircraft and armored vehicles dominate military hardware imports 64
4.2. Export Market Dynamics 65
4.2.1. Arms exports to recover during the forecast period 65
4.2.2. Netherlands arms exports expected to increase 66
4.2.3. Sensors and ships are the main exported defense products 67

5. Industry Dynamics 68
5.1. Five Forces Analysis 68
5.1.1. Bargaining power of supplier: medium to low 69
5.1.2. Bargaining power of buyer: medium 69
5.1.3. Barrier to entry: medium 69
5.1.4. Intensity of rivalry: high 69
5.1.5. Threat of substitution: low to high 69

6. Market Entry Strategy 70
6.1. Market Regulation 70
6.1.1. Offset policy aids development of domestic defense industry and research activities 70
6.1.2. FDI in defense sector is unrestricted without review 72
6.2. Market Entry Route 73
6.2.1. Budgeting Process 73
6.2.2. Procurement Policy & Process 74
6.2.3. Acquisition of domestic companies is an effective market entry route for foreign firms 75
6.2.4. Collaborations provide market entry opportunities 75
6.2.5. Joint ventures, partnerships and subcontracting offer alternative entry strategies 75
6.2.6. Joint R&D programs provide an effective strategy to gain market access 76
6.3. Key Challenges 77
6.3.1. Inadequate government support for defense industry 77
6.3.2. Defense procurements affected by European debt crisis 77

7. Competitive Landscape and Strategic Insights 78
7.1. Competitive Landscape Overview 78
7.2. Key Domestic Companies 81
7.2.1. Fokker Technologies: overview 81
7.2.2. Fokker Technologies: products 82
7.2.3. Fokker Technologies: recent announcements and strategic initiatives 82
7.2.4. Fokker Technologies: alliances 83
7.2.5. Fokker Technologies: recent contract wins 85
7.2.6. Damen Schelde Naval Shipbuilding: overview 86
7.2.7. Damen Schelde Naval Shipbuilding: products 86
7.2.8. Damen Schelde Naval Shipbuilding: recent announcements and strategic initiatives 86
7.2.9. Damen Schelde Naval Shipbuilding: alliances 88
7.2.10. Damen Schelde Naval Shipbuilding: recent contract wins 88
7.2.11. TNO Defense: overview 90
7.2.12. TNO Defense: products and services 90
7.2.13. TNO Defense: recent announcements and strategic initiatives 92
7.2.14. TNO Defense: alliances 93
7.2.15. TNO Defense: recent contract wins 93
7.2.16. Thales Nederland: overview 94
7.2.17. Thales Nederland: products and services 94
7.2.18. Thales Nederland: recent announcements and strategic initiatives 96
7.2.19. Thales Nederland: alliances 96
7.2.20. Thales Nederland: recent contract wins 97
7.2.21. Fokker Aerostructures: overview 99
7.2.22. Fokker Aerostructures: services 99
7.2.23. Fokker Aerostructures: recent announcements and strategic initiatives 99
7.2.24. Fokker Aerostructures: alliances 100
7.2.25. Fokker Aerostructures: recent contract wins 100
7.2.26. RH Marine Group: overview 101
7.2.27. RH Marine Group: products 101
7.2.28. RH Marine Group: recent announcements and strategic initiatives 101
7.2.29. RH Marine Group: alliances 101
7.2.30. RH Marine Group: recent contract wins 102
7.2.31. Lockheed Martin: overview 103
7.2.32. Lockheed Martin: products 103
7.2.33. Lockheed Martin: recent announcements and strategic initiatives 103
7.2.34. Lockheed Martin: alliances 104
7.2.35. Lockheed Martin: recent contract wins 105
7.2.36. Lockheed Martin Corp.: financial analysis 106

8. Business Environment and Country Risk 108
8.1. Economic Performance 108
8.1.1. Gross Domestic per Capita 108
8.1.2. Gross Domestic Product, current US$ 109
8.1.3. Exports of Goods and Services 110
8.1.4. Imports of Goods and Services 111
8.1.5. Gross National Disposable Income 112
8.1.6. Local Currency Unit per US$ 113
8.1.7. Market Capitalization of Listed Companies 114
8.1.8. Market Capitalization of Listed Companies as a % of GDP 115
8.1.9. Government Cash Surplus/Deficit 116
8.1.10. Goods Exports as a % of GDP 117
8.1.11. Goods Imports as a % of GDP 118
8.1.12. Services Imports as a % of GDP 119
8.1.13. Services Exports as a % of GDP 120
8.1.14. Net Foreign direct investment, (BoP, current US$ Bn) 121
8.1.15. Net FDI as a % of GDP 122
8.1.16. Mining, Manufacturing, Utilities Output 123

9. Appendix 124
9.1. About SDI 124
9.2. Disclaimer 124

List of Tables

Table 1: The Deployment of the Netherlands Armed Forces vs Defense Tasks 16
Table 2: The Netherlands Army Strength 20
Table 3: The Netherlands Navy Strength 21
Table 4: The Netherlands Air Force Strength 22
Table 5: The Netherlands - Ongoing Procurement Programs 23
Table 6: The Netherlands - Future Procurement Programs 24
Table 7: The Netherlands top Defense Procurement Programs by Value (US$ Million) 2018-2023 25
Table 8: The Netherlands Defense Expenditure (EUR Billion and US$ Billion), 2014-2023 28
Table 9: The Netherlands - GDP Growth vs Defense Expenditure as a Percentage of GDP, 2014-2023 31
Table 10: The Netherlands - Defense Budget Split Between Capital and Revenue Expenditure (%), 2014-2023 33
Table 11: The Netherlands - Defense Capital Expenditure (EUR Billion and US$ Billion), 2014-2023 35
Table 12: The Netherlands - Defense Expenditure Breakdown (%), 2014-2023 37
Table 13: The Netherlands Defense Budget Allocations in EUR Billion - Breakdown by Services (Army, Navy, Air Force, Support Command and Others) 2014-2023 39
Table 14: The Netherlands Defense Budget Allocations in US$ Billion - Breakdown by Services (Army, Navy, Air Force, Support Command and Others) 2014-2023 41
Table 15: The Netherlands - Per Capita Defense Expenditure (US$), 2014-2023 43
Table 16: The Netherlands - Homeland Security Expenditure (EUR Billion and US$ Billion), 2014-2023 45
Table 17: Terrorism Index, 2018 49
Table 18: The Netherlands - Benchmarking with Key Markets, 2014-2018 vs 2019-2023 52
Table 19: Top 10 Sectors of the Netherlands Defense Market by Value (US$ Million) - 2018-2023 56
Table 20: Offset Regulations in the Netherlands 70
Table 21: The Netherlands Budget Formation Timetable: 73
Table 22: Top 10 Defense Suppliers in The Netherlands Defense Industry - By Value (US$ Million) 2018-2023 78
Table 23: The Netherlands - Competitive Landscape of the Defense Industry 79
Table 24: Fokker Technologies - Product Focus 82
Table 25: Fokker Technologies- Alliances 83
Table 26: Fokker Technologies- Recent Contract Wins 85
Table 27: Damen Schelde Naval Shipbuilding- Product focus 86
Table 28: Damen Schelde Naval Shipbuilding- Alliances 88
Table 29: Damen Schelde Naval Shipbuilding - Contracts 88
Table 30: TNO Defense- Product focus 90
Table 31: TNO Defense- Alliances 93
Table 32: TNO Defense- Recent Contract Wins 93
Table 33: Thales Nederland- Product focus 94
Table 34: Thales Nederland- Alliances 96
Table 35: Thales Nederland- Recent Contract Wins 97
Table 36:Fokker Aerostructures - Service focus 99
Table 37:Fokker Aerostructures- Alliances 100
Table 38: Fokker Aerostructures- Recent Contract Wins 100
Table 39: RH Marine Group - Product focus 101
Table 40: RH Marine Group - Alliances 101
Table 41: RH Marine Group - Recent Contract Wins 102
Table 42:Lockheed Martin- Product focus 103
Table 43: Lockheed Martin- Alliances 104
Table 44: Lockheed Martin- Recent Contract Wins 105

List of Figures

Figure 1: The Netherlands - Defense Expenditure (EUR Billion), 2014-2023 29
Figure 2: The Netherlands - Defense Expenditure (US$ Billion), 2014 - 2023 29
Figure 3: The Netherlands - GDP Growth vs. Defense Expenditures as Percentage of GDP Growth, 2014-2023 32
Figure 4: The Netherlands - Defense Budget Split Between Capital and Revenue Expenditure (%), 2014-2023 34
Figure 5: The Netherlands - Defense Capital Expenditure (EUR Billion), 2014-2023 36
Figure 6: The Netherlands - Defense Capital Expenditure (US$ Billion), 2014-2023 36
Figure 7: The Netherlands - Defense Expenditure Breakdown (%), 2014-2023 38
Figure 8: The Netherlands Defense Budget in EUR Billion - Breakdown by Services (Army, Navy, Air Force, Support Command and Others) 2014-2023 40
Figure 9: The Netherlands Defense Budget in US$ Billion - Breakdown by Services (Army, Navy, Air Force, Support Commands and Others) 2014-2023 42
Figure 10: The Netherlands - Per Capita Defense Expenditure (US$), 2014-2023 44
Figure 11: The Netherlands - Homeland Security Budget (EUR Billion), 2014-2023 46
Figure 12: The Netherlands - Homeland Security Budget (US$ Billion), 2014-2023 46
Figure 13: Terrorism Heat Map, 2018 48
Figure 14: The Netherlands - Terrorism Index, 2018 51
Figure 15: The Netherlands - Benchmarking with Key Markets, 2014-2018 vs 2019-2023 53
Figure 16: The Netherlands - Benchmarking with World’s Largest and Top Regional Defense Spenders (US$ Billion), 2018 and 2023 54
Figure 17: The Netherlands - Defense Expenditure as a Percentage of GDP of Largest Military Spenders (%), 2018 55
Figure 18: The Netherlands - Land-Based C4ISR Market Size (US$ Million), 2018-2023 57
Figure 19: The Netherlands - Fighters and Multi-Role Aircraft Market Size (US$ Million), 2018-2023 58
Figure 20: The Netherlands - Networking Market Size (US$ Million), 2018-2023 59
Figure 21: The Netherlands Defense Procurements In Terms Of Their Supplier Relationships 61
Figure 22: The Netherlands - Defense Import Trends, 2012-2016 (TIV Values US$ Million) 62
Figure 23: The Netherlands - Defense Imports by Country (%), 2012-2016 63
Figure 24: The Netherlands - Defense Imports by Category (%), 2012-2016 64
Figure 25: The Netherlands - Defense Export Trends, 2012-2016 (TIV Values US$ Million) 65
Figure 26: The Netherlands Defense exports by Country (%), 2012-2016 66
Figure 27: The Netherlands Defense Exports by Category (%), 2012-2016 67
Figure 28: Industry Dynamics - Porter’s Five Forces Analysis 68
Figure 29: Lockheed Martin Corp. - Revenue Trend Analysis (US$ billion), 2012-2016 106
Figure 30: Lockheed Martin Corp. - Operating Profit Trend Analysis (US$ billion), 2012-2016 107
Figure 31: Lockheed Martin Corp. - Net Profit Trend Analysis (US$ billion), 2012-2016 107
Figure 32: Netherlands GDP Per Capita US$, 2015-2025 108
Figure 33: Netherlands Gross Domestic Product (current US$ Billion), 2015-2025 109
Figure 34: Netherlands Exports of goods and services (LCU Billion), 2005-2014 110
Figure 35: Netherlands Imports of goods and services (LCU Billion), 2005-2014 111
Figure 36: Netherlands gross national disposable income (US$ Billion), 2005 - 2013 112
Figure 37: Netherlands LCU per US$, 2015-2024 113
Figure 38: Netherlands Market Capitalization of listed Companies (US$ Billion), 2005-2012 114
Figure 39: Netherlands Market Capitalization of listed companies as a % of GDP, 2005-2012 115
Figure 40: Netherlands Government cash Surplus/deficit as a % of GDP, 2005-2012 116
Figure 41: Netherlands Goods Exports as a % of GDP, 2005-2014 117
Figure 42: Netherlands Goods Imports as a % of GDP, 2005-2014 118
Figure 43: Netherlands Services Imports as a % of GDP, 2005-2014 119
Figure 44: Netherlands Services Exports as a % of GDP, 2005-2014 120
Figure 45: Netherlands Net Foreign Direct Investment (current US$ Billion), 2005-2014 121
Figure 46: Netherlands Net FDI as a % of GDP, 2005-2014 122
Figure 47: Netherlands Mining, Manufacturing, Utilities Output(US$ Billion), 2005-2014 123

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