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Future of the Libyan Defense Industry - Market Attractiveness, Competitive Landscape and Forecasts to 2023

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Date: 25-Jan-2018
No. of pages: 88
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The Future of the Libyan Defense Industry Market Attractiveness, Competitive Landscape and Forecasts to 2022, published by Strategic Defence Intelligence, provides readers with detailed analysis of both historic and forecast defense industry values, factors influencing demand, the challenges faced by industry participants, analysis of industry leading companies, and key news.

Synopsis

This report offers detailed analysis of the Libyan defense industry with market size forecasts covering the next five years. This report will also analyze factors that influence demand for the industry, key market trends, and challenges faced by industry participants.

In particular, it provides an in-depth analysis of the following -


  • The Libya defense industry market size and drivers: detailed analysis of the Libya defense industry during 2019-2023, including highlights of the demand drivers and growth stimulators for the industry. It also provides a snapshot of the country’s expenditure and modernization patterns

  • Budget allocation and key challenges: insights into procurement schedules formulated within the country and a breakdown of the defense budget with respect to capital expenditure and revenue expenditure. It also details the key challenges faced by defense market participants within the country

  • Import and Export Dynamics: analysis of prevalent trends in the country’s imports and exports over the last five years

  • Market opportunities:list of the top ten defense investment opportunities over the next 5 years

  • Competitive landscape and strategic insights: analysis of the competitive landscape of the Libyan defense industry.


Scope


  • The Libyan defense industry, valued at US$3.2 billion in 2019, is anticipated to record a CAGR of 1.56% over the forecast period, to reach US$3.4 billion in 2023.

  • Libya is focusing on reconstructing and strengthening its security forces after the 2011 revolution, during which the people successfully overthrew one of the longest dictatorial regimes which spanned over four decades.

  • This has resulted in a substantial increase initially in the military expenditure of the country.


Reasons to buy


  • This report will give the user confidence to make the correct business decisions based on a detailed analysis of the Libyan defense industry market trends for the coming five years

  • The market opportunity section will inform the user about the various military requirements that are expected to generate revenues during the forecast period. The description includes technical specifications, recent orders, and the expected investment pattern by the country during the forecast period

  • Detailed profiles of the top domestic and foreign defense manufacturers with information about their products, alliances, recent contract wins, and financial analysis wherever available. This will provide the user with a total competitive landscape of the sector

  • A deep qualitative analysis of the Libyan defense industry covering sections including demand drivers,Key Trends,and latest industry contracts


Companies Mentioned


  • Lockheed Martin

  • Leonardo S.p.A.

  • KBP Instrument Design Bureau

Future of the Libyan Defense Industry - Market Attractiveness, Competitive Landscape and Forecasts to 2023

Table of Contents

1. Introduction 7
1.1. What is this Report About? 7
1.2. Definitions 7
1.3. Summary Methodology 9
1.4. About Strategic Defence Intelligence 11

2. Executive Summary 12

3. Market Attractiveness and Emerging Opportunities 14
3.1. Current Market Scenario 15
3.1.1. Primary threat perception 15
3.1.2. Military Doctrine & Strategy 16
3.1.3. Military Fleet Size 17
3.1.4. Procurement Programs 20
3.1.5. Social, Political and Economic Environment & Support for Defense Projects 21
3.1.6. Political and Strategic Alliances 22
3.1.7. Libyan defense budget anticipated to grow at a CAGR of 1.56% during 2019-2023 24
3.1.8. Rebuilding the armed forces and replacing aging equipment 26
3.2. Analysis of Defense Budget Allocation 27
3.2.1. The majority of Libya’s defense budget is allocated to revenue expenditure 27
3.2.2. Capital expenditure set to rise at a forecast-period CAGR of 1.41% 29
3.2.3. Defense expenditure as a percentage of GDP to rise over the forecast period 31
3.2.4. Per capita defense expenditure set to increase over the forecast period 32
3.3. Homeland Security Market Size and Forecast 33
3.3.1. Political stalemate, terrorism, border security, and internal disputes 33
3.3.2. Libya considered to be highly effected by terrorism 35
3.3.3. Libya faces high level of threat from foreign terrorist organizations 36
3.3.4. Libya faces significant threat from terrorists 38
3.4. Benchmarking with Key Global Markets 39
3.4.1. Libyan defense budget anticipated to register growth over the period 2019-2023 39
3.4.2. Libyan defense expenditure is small compared to the leading spenders 41
3.4.3. Libya spent 4% of its GDP on defense in 2018 42
3.5. Market Opportunities: Key Trends and Drivers 43
3.5.1. Top 10 Defense market sectors by value (US$ Million) - Projections over period 2018-2023 43
3.5.2. Transport Helicopters 44
3.5.3. Personnel Weapons 45
3.5.4. Soft Armor 46

4. Defense Procurement Market Dynamics 47
4.1. Import Market Dynamics 48
4.1.1. Defense imports are expected to increase during the forecast period 48
4.1.2. Russia was the leading supplier of arms to Libya during 2012-2016 49
4.1.3. Armored vehicles to compromise the majority of Libyan arms imports 50
4.2. Export Market Dynamics 51
4.2.1. Libyan defense exports market is negligible 51

5. Industry Dynamics 52
5.1. Five Forces Analysis 52
5.1.1. Bargaining power of supplier: high 53
5.1.2. Bargaining power of buyer: low 53
5.1.3. Barrier to entry: medium 53
5.1.4. Intensity of rivalry: low 53
5.1.5. Threat of substitution: low to medium 53

6. Market Entry Strategy 54
6.1. Market Regulation 54
6.1.1. Arms Embargo in Libya 54
6.1.2. Libya has not disclosed any offset policy 54
6.2. Market Entry Route 55
6.2.1. Budgeting Process 55
6.2.2. Procurement Policy & Process 56
6.2.3. Foreign Military Sale (FMS) is the preferred entry route 57
6.3. Key Challenges 58
6.3.1. Underdeveloped industry and internal instability discouraging foreign participation 58
6.3.2. Unemployment and scarcity of skilled labor 58

7. Competitive Landscape and Strategic Insights 59
7.1. Competitive Landscape Overview 59
7.2. Key Foreign Companies 60
7.2.1. Lockheed Martin: overview 60
7.2.2. Lockheed Martin: products and services 60
7.2.3. Lockheed Martin: recent announcements and strategic initiatives 60
7.2.4. Lockheed Martin: alliances 62
7.2.5. Lockheed Martin: recent contract wins 62
7.2.6. Lockheed Martin Corp.: financial analysis 63
7.2.7. Leonardo S.p.A: overview 65
7.2.8. Leonardo S.p.A: products and services 65
7.2.9. Leonardo S.p.A: recent announcements and strategic initiatives 66
7.2.10. Leonardo S.p.A: alliances 68
7.2.11. Leonardo S.p.A: recent contract wins 70
7.2.12. KBP Instrument Design Bureau - overview 72
7.2.13. KBP Instrument Design Bureau - major products and services 72
7.2.14. KBP Instrument Design Bureau - recent announcements and strategic initiatives 73
7.2.15. KBP Instrument Design Bureau - recent contract wins 75

8. Business Environment and Country Risk 76
8.1. Economic Performance 76
8.1.1. GDP per capita at constant prices 76
8.1.2. GDP at current prices (US$ Billion) 77
8.1.3. Exports of Goods and Services (LCU bn) 78
8.1.4. Imports of Goods and Services (LCU Billion) 79
8.1.5. LCU per US$ (period average) 80
8.1.6. Goods exports as a percentage of GDP 81
8.1.7. Goods imports as a percentage of GDP 82
8.1.8. Services Imports as a percentage of GDP 83
8.1.9. Service Exports as a percentage of GDP 84
8.1.10. Foreign direct investment, net (BoP, current US$ billions) 85
8.1.11. Foreign direct investment, as Percentage of GDP 86
8.1.12. Mining, Manufacturing, Utilities Output (US$ billion) 87

9. Appendix 88
9.1. About SDI 88
9.2. Disclaimer 88

List of Tables

Table 1: Libyan Army Strength 17
Table 2: Libyan Navy Strength 18
Table 3: Libyan Air Force Strength 19
Table 4: Top Libyan Defense Procurement Programs by Value (US$ Million) 2018-2023 20
Table 5: Libyan Defense Expenditure (LYD Billion and US$ Billion), 2014-2023 24
Table 6: Libyan Defense Budget Split Between Capital and Revenue Expenditure (%), 2014-2023 27
Table 7: Libyan - Defense Capital Expenditure (LYD Billion and US$ Billion), 2014-2023 29
Table 8: Libyan - GDP Growth vs Defense Expenditure as a Percentage of GDP, 2014-2023 31
Table 9: Libyan per capita defense expenditure (US$), 2014-2023 32
Table 10: Terrorism Index, 2018 36
Table 11: Benchmarking with Key Markets, 2014-2018 vs. 2019-2023 39
Table 12: Top 10 Libyan Defense Market Sectors by Value (US$ Million) - 2018-2023 43
Table 13: Libyan Budget Formation Timetable: 55
Table 14: Competitive Landscape of the Libyan Defense Industry 59
Table 15: Lockheed Martin - product focus 60
Table 16: Lockheed Martin - Alliances 62
Table 17: Lockheed Martin - Recent Contract Wins 62
Table 18: Leonardo S.p.A - Product Focus 65
Table 19: Leonardo S.p.A - Alliances 68
Table 20: Leonardo S.p.A - Recent Contract Wins 70
Table 21: KBP Instrument Design Bureau - Major Products and Services 72
Table 22: KBP Instrument Design Bureau - recent contract wins 75

List of Figures

Figure 1: Libyan Defense Expenditure (LYD Billion), 2014-2023 25
Figure 2: Libyan Defense Expenditure (US$ Billion), 2014-2023 25
Figure 3: Libyan Defense Budget Split Between Capital and Revenue Expenditure (%), 2014-2023 28
Figure 4: Libyan - Defense Capital Expenditure (LYD Million), 2014-2023 30
Figure 5: Libyan - Defense Capital Expenditure (US$ Million), 2014-2023 30
Figure 6: Libyan GDP Growth vs. Defense Expenditure as Percentage of GDP, 2014-2023 31
Figure 7: Libyan per capita defense expenditure (US$), 2014-2023 32
Figure 8: Terrorism Heat Map, 2018 35
Figure 9: Terrorism Index, 2018 38
Figure 10: Benchmarking with Key Markets, 2014-2018 vs. 2019-2023 40
Figure 11: Benchmarking with World’s Largest Defense Spenders (US$ Billion), 2018 and 2023 41
Figure 12: Benchmarking with Large Defense Spenders as % of GDP - 2018 42
Figure 13: Transport Helicopter Market (US$ Million), 2018-2023 44
Figure 14: Personal Weapons Market (US$ Million), 2018-2023 45
Figure 15: Soft Armor Market (US$ Million), 2018-2023 46
Figure 16: Libyan Defense Imports (US$ Million), 2012-2016 48
Figure 17: Libyan Defense Imports by Country (%), 2012-2016 49
Figure 18: Libyan Defense Imports by Category, 2012-2016 50
Figure 19: Industry Dynamics - Porter’s Five Forces Analysis 52
Figure 20: Lockheed Martin Corp. - Revenue Trend Analysis (US$ Billion), 2012-2016 63
Figure 21: Lockheed Martin Corp. - Operating Profit Trend Analysis (US$ Billion), 2012-2016 64
Figure 22: Lockheed Martin Corp. - Net Profit Trend Analysis (US$ Billion), 2012-2016 64
Figure 23: Libyan GDP Per Capita at Constant Prices (US$), 2015-2025 76
Figure 24: Libyan GDP at Current Prices (US$ Billion), 2015-2025 77
Figure 25: Libyan Exports of Goods and Services (LCU Billion), 2005-2014 78
Figure 26: Libyan Imports of Goods and Services (LCU Billion), 2005-2014 79
Figure 27: Libya- LCU per US$ (period average), 2015-2024 80
Figure 28: Libya- Goods Exports as a percentage of GDP (%), 2005-2013 81
Figure 29: Libya- Goods imports as a percentage of GDP (%), 2005-2013 82
Figure 30: Libyan Services Imports as a percentage of GDP (%), 2005-2013 83
Figure 31: Libyan Service Exports as a percentage of GDP (%), 2005-2013 84
Figure 32: Libya- Foreign Direct Investment, Net (BoP, current US$ billion), 2005-2013 85
Figure 33: Libya- Foreign Direct Investment, as a percentage of GDP, 2005-2013 86
Figure 34: Libyan Mining, Manufacturing, Utilities Output (LCU billion), 2005-2014 87

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