Future of the Japanese Defense Industry - Market Attractiveness, Competitive Landscape and Forecasts to 2023

Future of the Japanese Defense Industry - Market Attractiveness, Competitive Landscape and Forecasts to 2023

Table of Contents
1. 1. Introduction 10
1.1. What is this Report About? 10
1.2. Definitions 10
1.3. Summary Methodology 12
1.4. About Strategic Defence Intelligence 13
2. Executive Summary 14
3. Market Attractiveness and Emerging Opportunities 16
3.1. Current Market Scenario 17
3.1.1. Primary threat perception 17
3.1.2. Military Doctrine and Strategy 18
3.1.3. Military Fleet Size 20
3.1.4. Procurement Programs 25
3.1.5. Ongoing procurement programs 25
3.1.6. Future procurement programs 26
3.1.7. Top Procurement Programs by Value (US$ Million) 2018-2023 27
3.1.8. Social, Political and Economic Environment and Support for Defense Projects 28
3.1.9. Political and Strategic Alliances 29
3.2. Defense Market Size Historical and Forecast 30
3.2.1. Total Japanese defense expenditure inclusive of SACO and US realignment expenditure is projected to grow at a CAGR of 2.51% over the forecast period 30
3.2.2. Japan defense budget (excluding SACO and US force related expenditure) is projected to grow at a CAGR of 2.38% over the forecast period 32
3.2.3. Japan SACO and US force related expenditure to increase at a CAGR of 5.34% over the forecast period 34
3.2.4. North Korean nuclear missile development programs, strategic challenges from China, and a territorial issue with Russia are the main factors driving the Japanese defense industry 36
3.2.5. Defense expenditure as a percentage of GDP expected to average 0.9% over the forecast period 38
3.3. Analysis of Defense Budget Allocation 40
3.3.1. The Ministry of Defense is expected to allocate an average of 56.1% of the budget towards capital expenditure over the forecast period 40
3.3.2. The Ministry of Defense is expected to divert an additional cumulative average of 2.4% towards SACO/US realignment expenditure over the forecast period 42
3.3.3. Procurement of equipment is expected to pick up over the forecast period 43
3.3.4. The Japanese Ground Self-Defense Force (GSDF) accounts for the largest percentage share of the overall defense budget 45
3.3.5. Ground Self-Defense Force (GSDF) to continue accounting for the majority share of the Japanese defense budget 47
3.3.6. Per capita defense expenditure is expected to increase over the forecast period 51
3.4. Homeland Security Market Size and Forecast 52
3.4.1. In terms of local currency, the Japanese homeland security budget is expected to grow at a CAGR of 1.10% over the forecast period 52
In terms of US dollars, Japan is projected to cumulatively allocate US$15.8 billion over the forecast period 52
3.4.2. Intrusion in coastal areas, organized crime, and natural disasters are expected to drive Japanese homeland security expenditure 55
3.4.3. Japan faces "moderate risk" of terrorism 56
3.4.4. Japan faces a moderate level of threat from foreign terrorist organizations 57
3.4.5. Japan has a terrorism index score of 3.6 59
3.5. Benchmarking with Key Global Markets 60
3.5.1. Japan is the fifth-largest defense spender globally 60
3.5.2. Japan's defense expenditure is low compared to the US, China, Saudi Arabia and the UK 62
3.5.3. Japanese defense budget as a percentage of GDP is expected to average at 0.9% over the forecast period 63
3.6. Market Opportunities: Key Trends and Growth Stimulators 64
3.6.1. Top 10 Defense Market Sectors by Value (US$ Million) - Projections over period 2018-2023 64
3.6.2. Land-based C4ISR 65
3.6.3. Infrastructure Construction 66
3.6.4. Facilities Management 67
4. Defense Procurement Market Dynamics 68
4.1. Import Market Dynamics 70
4.1.1. Japan to sign new defense import programs with foreign countries 70
4.1.2. Procurement of F-35 aircraft to increase defense imports marginally over the forecast period 71
4.1.3. The US was the key defense supplier to Japan 72
4.1.4. Aircraft and missiles were the key defense imports during 2013-2017 73
4.2. Export Market Dynamics 74
4.2.1. Relaxation in export policies to boost Japanese exports 74
5. Industry Dynamics 76
5.1. Five Forces Analysis 76
5.1.1. Bargaining Power of Supplier: Low 78
5.1.2. Bargaining Power of Buyer: High 78
5.1.3. Barrier to Entry: High 78
5.1.4. Intensity of Rivalry: High 78
5.1.5. Threat of Substitution: Medium 78
6. Market Entry Strategy 79
6.1. Market Regulation 79
6.1.1. No offset policy in Japan 79
6.1.2. Modified defense policies to augurs well for foreign investment in defense sphere 79
6.2. Market Entry Route 81
6.2.1. Budgeting Process 81
6.2.2. Procurement Policy and Process 82
6.2.3. Affiliation with Japanese defense companies can be used as an entry strategy 83
6.2.4. Foreign military sales to Japan 83
6.2.5. Entry through technology transfer program 84
6.2.6. Relaxation in existing policy can be used as an entry route 85
6.3. Key Challenges 86
6.3.1. Domestic companies fail to achieve economies of scale 86
6.3.2. Japanese export policy still poses a challenge for domestic defense companies 86
6.3.3. Opposition by Japanese civilians 87
7. Competitive Landscape and Strategic Insights 88
7.1. Competitive Landscape Overview 88
7.2. Key Foreign Competitors 91
7.2.1. Lockheed Martin: Overview 91
7.2.2. Lockheed Martin: Products 91
7.2.3. Lockheed Martin: Recent Announcements and Strategic Initiatives 91
7.2.4. Lockheed Martin: Alliances 93
7.2.5. Lockheed Martin: Recent Contract Wins 94
7.2.6. Lockheed Martin: Financial Analysis 96
7.2.7. Raytheon: Overview 98
7.2.8. Raytheon: Products 98
7.2.9. Raytheon: Recent Announcements and Strategic Initiatives 98
7.2.10. Raytheon: Alliances 100
7.2.11. Raytheon: Recent Contract Wins 101
7.2.12. Raytheon: Financial Analysis 104
7.2.13. BAE Systems: Overview 106
7.2.14. BAE Systems: products 106
7.2.15. BAE Systems: Recent Announcements and Strategic Initiatives 106
7.2.16. BAE Systems: Alliances 107
7.2.17. BAE Systems: Recent Contract Wins 108
7.2.18. BAE Systems: Financial Analysis 109
7.2.19. Airbus Group: Overview 111
7.2.20. Airbus Group: Defense Products and Services 111
7.2.21. Airbus Group: Recent Announcements and Strategic Initiatives 112
7.2.22. Airbus Group: Recent Contract Wins 113
7.2.23. Airbus Group: Financial Analysis 114
7.2.24. Bell: Overview 116
7.2.25. Bell : Defense Products and Services 116
7.2.26. Bell: Recent Announcements and Strategic Initiatives 116
7.2.27. Bell: Alliancess 118
7.2.28. Bell: Recent Contract Wins 119
7.3. Key Domestic Companies 121
7.3.1. NEC Corporation: Overview 121
7.3.2. NEC Corporation: products and services 121
7.3.3. NEC Corporation: Recent Contracts and Strategic Initiatives 121
7.3.4. NEC Corporation: Alliances 122
7.3.5. NEC Corporation: Recent Contract Wins 123
7.3.6. Toshiba Corporation: Overview 124
7.3.7. Toshiba Corporation: Defense Products 124
7.3.8. Toshiba Corporation: Recent Announcements and Strategic Initiatives 124
7.3.9. Toshiba Corporation: Alliances 125
7.3.10. Toshiba Corporation: recent contract wins 125
7.3.11. Toshiba: Financial Analysis 126
7.3.12. Mitsubishi Heavy Industries: Overview 128
7.3.13. Mitsubishi Heavy Industries: Defense Products 128
7.3.14. Mitsubishi Heavy Industries: Recent Announcements and Strategic Initiatives 128
7.3.15. Mitsubishi Heavy Industries: Alliances 129
7.3.16. Mitsubishi Heavy Industries: Recent Contract Wins 130
7.3.17. Mitsubishi Heavy Industries: Financial Analysis 131
7.3.18. Kawasaki Heavy Industries: Overview 133
7.3.19. Kawasaki Heavy Industries: Defense Products 133
7.3.20. Kawasaki Heavy Industries: Recent Announcements and Strategic Initiatives 133
7.3.21. Kawasaki Heavy Industries: Alliances 134
7.3.22. Kawasaki Heavy Industries: Recent Contract Wins 135
7.3.23. Kawasaki Heavy Industries: Financial Analysis 136
7.3.24. Ishikawajima-Harima Heavy Industries Co. Ltd.: Overview 138
7.3.25. Ishikawajima - Harima Heavy Industries Co. Ltd.: Products 138
7.3.26. Ishikawajima-Harima Heavy Industries Co. Ltd.: Recent Announcements and Strategic Initiatives 139
7.3.27. Ishikawajima-Harima Heavy Industries Co. Ltd.: Alliances 140
7.3.28. Ishikawajima-Harima Heavy Industries Co. Ltd.: recent contract wins 140
7.3.29. Mitsubishi Electric Corporation: Overview 141
7.3.30. Mitsubishi Electric Corporation: Products 141
7.3.31. Mitsubishi Electric Corporation: Recent Announcements and Strategic Initiatives 141
7.3.32. Mitsubishi Electric Corporation: Alliances 142
7.3.33. Mitsubishi Electric Corporation: Recent Contract Wins 142
7.3.34. Mitsubishi Electric Corporation: Financial Analysis 143
8. Business Environment and Country Risk 145
8.1. Economic Performance 145
8.1.1. GDP per capita at Constant Prices 145
8.1.2. GDP at Current Prices (US$) 146
8.1.3. Exports of Goods and Services (current LCU Billion) 147
8.1.4. Imports of Goods and Services (current LCU Billion) 148
8.1.5. Gross National Disposable Income (US$ Billion) 149
8.1.6. LCU per US$ (Period Average) 150
8.1.7. Market Capitalization of Listed Companies (US$ Billion) 151
8.1.8. Market Capitalization of Listed Companies (% of GDP) 152
8.1.9. Government Cash Surplus/Deficit as a percentage of GDP (LCU) 153
8.1.10. Goods Exports as a percentage of GDP 154
8.1.11. Goods Imports as a percentage of GDP 155
8.1.12. Service Imports as a percentage of GDP 156
8.1.13. Service Exports as a percentage of GDP 157
8.1.14. Foreign Direct Investment, net (BoP, current US$ Billion) 158
8.1.15. Net Foreign Direct Investment as a percentage of GDP 159
8.1.16. Mining, Manufacturing, Utilities Output (US$ Billion) 160
9. Appendix 161
9.1. About SDI 161
9.2. Disclaimer 161

List of Tables
Table 1: The Japanese Army Strength 20
Table 2: Japanese Navy Strength 22
Table 3: Japanese Air Force Strength 24
Table 4: Japan - Ongoing Procurement Programs 25
Table 5: Japan - Future Procurement Programs 26
Table 6: Top Japanese Defense Procurement Programs by Value (US$ Million) 2018-2023 27
Table 7: Japanese Defense Expenditure (JPY Billion & US$ Billion), 2014-2023 30
Table 8: Japanese Defense Budget (JPY Billion & US$ Billion), 2014-2023 32
Table 9: Japanese SACO and US force related expenditure (JPY Billion & US$ Billion), 2014-2023 34
Table 10: Japanese GDP Growth and Defense Expenditure as Percentage of GDP, 2014-2023 38
Table 11: Japanese Defense Budget Split between Capital, Revenue, 2014-2023 40
Table 12: Japanese Capital Expenditure (JPY billion & US$ billion), 2014-2023 43
Table 13: Japanese Defense Expenditure Breakdown (%), 2014-2023 45
Table 14: Japan Defense Budget in JPY Billion - Breakdown by Services (GSDF, ASDF, MSDF and Others) 2014-2023 47
Table 15: Japan Defense Budget in US$ Billion - Breakdown by Services (GSDF, ASDF, MSDF and Others) 2014-2023 49
Table 16: Japanese Per Capita Defense Expenditure (US$), 2014-2023 51
Table 17: Japanese Homeland Security Expenditure (JPY billion & US$ billion), 2014-2023 53
Table 18: Terrorism Index, 2018 57
Table 19: Benchmarking with Key Markets - 2014-2018 vs. 2019-2023 60
Table 20: Top 10 Japan Defense Market Sectors by Value (US$ Million) - 2018-2023 64
Table 21: Japanese Budget Formation Timetable: 81
Table 22: FMS deals to Japan 83
Table 23: Cost Comparison of Defense Equipment in Japan and the US 86
Table 24: Top 10 Defense Suppliers in the Japanese Defense Industry - By Value (US$ Million) 2018-2023 89
Table 25: Competitive Landscape of the Japanese Defense Industry 90
Table 26: Lockheed Martin - Product Focus 91
Table 27: Lockheed Martin - Alliances 93
Table 28: Lockheed Martin - Recent Contract Wins 94
Table 29: Raytheon - Product Focus 98
Table 30: Raytheon - Alliances 100
Table 31: Raytheon - Recent Contract Wins 101
Table 32: BAE Systems - Product Focus 106
Table 33: BAE Systems - Alliances 107
Table 34: BAE Systems - Recent Contract Wins 108
Table 35: Airbus Group - Product Focus 111
Table 36: Airbus Group - Recent Contract Wins 113
Table 37: Bell - Product Focus 116
Table 38: Bell - Alliances 118
Table 39: Bell - Recent Contract Wins 119
Table 40: NEC Corporation - Product Focus 121
Table 41: NEC Corporation - Alliances 122
Table 42: NEC Corporation - Recent Contract Wins 123
Table 43: Toshiba Corporation - product focus 124
Table 44: Toshiba Corporation - Alliances 125
Table 45: Toshiba Corporation - Recent Contract Wins 125
Table 46: Mitsubishi Heavy Industries - product focus 128
Table 47: Mitsubishi Heavy Industries - Alliances 129
Table 48: Mitsubishi Heavy Industries - Recent Contract Wins 130
Table 49: Kawasaki Heavy Industries - Product Focus 133
Table 50: Kawasaki Heavy Industries - Alliances 134
Table 51: Kawasaki Heavy Industries - Recent Contract Wins 135
Table 52: Ishikawajima-Harima Heavy Industries Co. Ltd - Product Focus 138
Table 53: Ishikawajima-Harima Heavy Industries Co. Ltd. - Alliances 140
Table 54: Ishikawajima-Harima Heavy Industries Co. Ltd. - Recent Contract Wins 140
Table 55: Mitsubishi Electric Corporation - Product Focus 141
Table 56: Mitsubishi Electric Corporation - Alliances 142
Table 57: Mitsubishi Electric Corporation. - Recent Contract Wins 142

List of Figures
Figure 1: Japanese Defense Expenditure (JPY Billion), 2014-2023 31
Figure 2: Japanese Defense Expenditure (US$ Billion), 2014-2023 31
Figure 3: Japanese Defense Budget (JPY Billion), 2014-2023 33
Figure 4: Japanese Defense Budget (US$ Billion), 2014-2023 33
Figure 5: Japanese SACO and US force related expenditure (JPY Billion), 2014-2023 35
Figure 6: Japanese SACO and US force related expenditure (US$ Billion), 2014-2023 35
Figure 7: Japanese GDP Growth vs. Defense Expenditure as Percentage of GDP, 2014-2023 39
Figure 8:Japanese Defense Budget Split between Capital, Revenue, 2014-2023 41
Figure 9:Japanese Defense Budget Split between SACO and the US Forces Realignment 42
Figure 10: Japanese Capital Expenditure (JPY billion), 2014-2023 44
Figure 11: Japanese Capital Expenditure (US$ billion), 2014-2023 44
Figure 12: Japanese Defense Expenditure Breakdown (%), 2014-2023 46
Figure 13: The Japan Defense Budget in EUR Billion - Breakdown by Services (Army, Navy, Air Force and Common Services) 2014-2023 48
Figure 14: The Japan Defense Budget in US$ Billion - Breakdown by Services (Army, Navy, Air Force and Common Services) 2014-2023 50
Figure 15: Japanese Per Capita Defense Expenditure (US$), 2014-2023 51
Figure 16: Japanese Homeland Security Budget (JPY billion), 2014-2023 53
Figure 17: Japanese Homeland Security Budget (US$ Billion), 2014-2023 54
Figure 18: Terrorism Heat Map, 2018 56
Figure 19: Terrorism Index, 2018 59
Figure 20: Benchmarking with Key Markets - 2014-2018 vs. 2019-2023 61
Figure 21: Defense Expenditure of the World's Largest Military Spenders (US$ Billion), 2018 & 2023 62
Figure 22: Defense Expenditure as a Percentage of GDP of Largest Military Spenders (%), 2018 63
Figure 23: Land-based C4ISR Market Size (US$ Million), 2018-2023 65
Figure 24: Infrastructure Construction Market Size (US$ Million), 2018-2023 66
Figure 25: Facilities Management Market Size (US$ Million), 2018-2023 67
Figure 26: Japan's Defense Procurements in terms of their Supplier Relationships 69
Figure 27: Japanese Defense Import Trend, 2013-2017 (TIV values) 71
Figure 28: Japanese Defense Imports by Country (%), 2013-2017 72
Figure 29: Japanese Defense Imports by Category (%), 2013-2017 73
Figure 30: Industry Dynamics - Porter's Five Forces Analysis 77
Figure 31: Structure of the new Japanese defense equipment agency 82
Figure 32: Lockheed Martin Corp. - Revenue Trend Analysis (US$ Billion), 2013-2017 96
Figure 33: Lockheed Martin Corp. - Operating Profit Trend Analysis (US$ Billion), 2013-2017 97
Figure 34: Lockheed Martin Corp. - Net Profit Trend Analysis (US$ Billion), 2013-2017 97
Figure 35: Raytheon - Revenue Trend Analysis (US$ Billion), 2013-2017 104
Figure 36: Raytheon - Operating Profit Trend Analysis (US$ billion), 2013-2017 104
Figure 37: Raytheon - Net Profit Trend Analysis (US$ billion), 2013-2017 105
Figure 38: BAE Systems - Revenue Trend Analysis (GBP Billion), 2013-2017 109
Figure 39: BAE Systems - Operating Profit (GBP Billion), 2013-2017 109
Figure 40: BAE Systems - Net Profit Trend Analysis (GBP Billion), 2013-2017 110
Figure 41: Airbus Group - Revenue Trend Analysis (Euro Billion), 2013-2017 114
Figure 42: Airbus Group - Operating Profit (Euro Billion), 2013-2017 114
Figure 43: Airbus Group - Net Profit Trend Analysis (Euro Billion), 2013-2017 115
Figure 44: Toshiba- Revenue Trend Analysis (JPY Trillion), 2013-2017 126
Figure 45: Toshiba - Operating Profit Trend Analysis (JPY Billion), 2013-2017 127
Figure 46: Toshiba - Net Profit Trend Analysis (JPY Billion), 2013-2017 127
Figure 47: Mitsubishi Heavy Industries - Revenue Trend Analysis (JPY Billion), 2013-2017 131
Figure 48: Mitsubishi Heavy Industries - Operating Profit Trend Analysis (JPY Billion), 2013-2017 132
Figure 49: Mitsubishi Heavy Industries - Net Profit Trend Analysis (JPY Billion), 2013-2017 132
Figure 50: Kawasaki Heavy Industries - Revenue Trend Analysis (JPY Trillion), 2013-2017 136
Figure 51: Kawasaki Heavy Industries - Operating Profit Trend Analysis (JPY Billion), 2013-2017 136
Figure 52: Kawasaki Heavy Industries - Net Profit Trend Analysis (JPY Million), 2013-2017 137
Figure 53: Mitsubishi Electric Corporation - Revenue Trend Analysis (JPY Trillion), 2013-2017 143
Figure 54: Mitsubishi Electric Corporation - Operating Profit Analysis (JPY Billion), 2013-2017 143
Figure 55: Mitsubishi Electric Corporation - Net Profit Analysis (JPY Billion), 2013-2017 144
Figure 56: Japanese GDP Per Capita at Constant Prices (US$), 2015-2025 145
Figure 57: Japan GDP at Current Prices (USD Billion), 2015-2025 146
Figure 58: Japanese Exports of Goods and Services (LCU Billion), 2005-2013 147
Figure 59: Japanese Imports of Goods and Services (LCU), 2005-2013 148
Figure 60: Gross National Disposable Income (US$ Billion), 2005-2012 149
Figure 61: Japanese LCU per US$, 2015-2024 150
Figure 62: Japanese Market Capitalization of Listed Companies (US$ Billion), 2005-2012 151
Figure 63: Japanese market capitalization of listed companies (% of GDP), 2005-2012 152
Figure 64: Government Cash Surplus/Deficit as a percentage of GDP (LCU), 2005-2012 153
Figure 65: Japanese Goods Exports as a percentage of GDP (%), 2005-2014 154
Figure 66: Japanese Goods Imports as a percentage of GDP (%), 2005-2014 155
Figure 67: Japanese Service Imports as a percentage of GDP (%), 2005-2014 156
Figure 68: Japanese Service Exports as a percentage of GDP (%), 2005-2014 157
Figure 69: Japanese Foreign Direct Investment, net (BoP, current US$ Billion), 2005-2014 158
Figure 70: Japanese Net Foreign Direct Investment as a percentage of GDP, 2005-2014 159
Figure 71: Japanese Mining, Manufacturing, Utilities Output (US$ Billion), 2005-2014 160

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